美國2024年總統選舉, 誰對台灣比較有利?川普還是拜登?Who is better for Taiwan in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the host discusses the upcoming U.S. presidential election between Biden and Trump, its implications for Taiwan, and the unique challenges each candidate presents. The host explores the U.S. electoral system, including the Electoral College and the influence of independent voters. They analyze Trump's unpredictability and Biden's perceived weakness, concluding that while both have flaws, Biden might offer a safer option for Taiwan. The video also touches on third-party candidates and the potential impact on the election outcome.
Takeaways
- 🗳️ The upcoming U.S. election is a rematch between Biden and Trump, with significant implications for both America and Taiwan.
- 🎥 The speaker is reluctant to discuss the election due to embarrassment and frustration but feels compelled to do so due to its global impact.
- 🦈 Sponsored content features Surfshark VPN, highlighting its use for accessing geo-restricted content and internet security features.
- 🐘🐪 The two main U.S. political parties are symbolized by an elephant (Republicans) and a donkey (Democrats), with red and blue as their respective colors.
- 📊 The U.S. election system involves the Electoral College, which allocates votes based on state populations but with an uneven ratio, potentially discounting individual votes.
- 🤔 The speaker identifies as an independent voter and notes that a significant portion of the U.S. voting population either doesn't vote or is independent.
- 💪 Trump's presidency was characterized by a tough stance on China, initiating tariffs and challenging the status quo, but his unpredictability and loyalty-over-competence approach caused issues.
- 🔬 Biden's administration continued Trump's policies against China, especially in high-tech sectors, and has shown a more functional and competent approach, with a stronger military presence around Taiwan.
- 🕊️ Biden has expressed a commitment to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack, aligning with traditional U.S. policies and maintaining strong relationships with regional allies.
- 👨👦 Biden's son Hunter has legal issues and a controversial personal life, which could potentially impact Biden's image.
- 👴 Both candidates face age-related concerns, with health and vitality being a factor in their ability to serve effectively.
- 🏆 The speaker predicts that Biden has an edge in the election due to independent voters' preferences and the impact of a third-party candidate, Robert F Kennedy Jr.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video?
-The main topic of the video is the upcoming U.S. presidential election, focusing on the potential candidates, how the election process works, and the implications for Taiwan.
Who is the sponsor of the video and what do they offer?
-The sponsor of the video is Surfshark VPN, which offers internet security tools including a VPN service, virus scanners, and ad blockers.
Why does the video creator feel embarrassed and frustrated about making this video?
-The video creator feels embarrassed and frustrated because they do not enjoy discussing the U.S. election, but they feel compelled to do so due to its impact on America and Taiwan.
What are the two main political parties in the United States mentioned in the video?
-The two main political parties in the United States mentioned are the Republicans, symbolized by an elephant and associated with the color red, and the Democrats, symbolized by a donkey and associated with the color blue.
What is the significance of the Electoral College in U.S. presidential elections?
-The Electoral College is a system where each state has a certain number of electoral votes, and the candidate who wins the majority of votes in a state gets all of that state's electoral votes. This system can result in a candidate winning the presidency without winning the popular vote.
How did Trump's presidency affect U.S.-China relations?
-Trump's presidency was characterized by a tough stance on China, including initiating tariffs and starting a trade war. He was also unpredictable and did not adhere to the traditional one China policy.
What is Biden's stance on China compared to Trump's?
-Biden has continued the tough stance on China initiated by Trump, doubling down on the trade war, especially concerning high-tech industries like semiconductors. However, Biden follows traditional U.S. policies and relies more on his staff for decision-making.
What are some of the issues surrounding Trump's and Biden's candidacies?
-Trump faces legal issues as a convicted felon with multiple indictments, while Biden's administration has been criticized for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and foreign policy issues, and Biden's son Hunter has his own legal problems.
Why might the presence of a third-party candidate, Robert F Kennedy Jr, affect the election outcome?
-The presence of a third-party candidate can affect the election by drawing votes away from the major party candidates. In this case, Robert F Kennedy Jr is expected to take votes that might otherwise go to Trump.
What is the video creator's opinion on which candidate would be better for Taiwan?
-The video creator believes that Taiwan would be safer under Biden's presidency due to his more functional administration and stronger military presence around Taiwan, despite Biden appearing weak in the eyes of China.
What factors might influence the outcome of the election according to the video?
-Factors that might influence the election outcome include Trump's alienation of lifelong Republicans, the removal of federal protection for abortion rights, Biden's administration's handling of various issues, and the impact of a third-party candidate.
Outlines
📅 US Election Overview
Toer discusses the upcoming US presidential election, expressing reluctance to delve into the topic due to its embarrassing and frustrating nature. He explains the significance of the election for both America and Taiwan. The video will cover how US elections work, the candidates' potential impact on Taiwan, and Toer's personal opinion on who is likely to win.
🔒 Sponsor Shoutout: Surf Shark VPN
Toer promotes Surf Shark VPN, highlighting its various features such as virus scanners, ad blockers, and the ability to change IP addresses to access geo-restricted content. He shares a personal example of using the VPN to watch a video unavailable in Taiwan by switching his IP address to Australia. He also mentions a special offer for viewers to get a discount and four months free by using his coupon code.
🐘🦓 US Political Parties and Voting Challenges
Toer explains the symbols and colors of the two main US political parties: Republicans (elephant, red) and Democrats (donkey, blue). He finds these symbols strange and highlights that the largest group of voters are independents. He discusses the challenges of voting in the US, including the inconvenient timing of Election Day and the complex Electoral College system, which often discourages voter participation.
🗳️ The Electoral College and Voting Disparities
Toer provides an overview of the Electoral College system, explaining how electoral votes are allocated and how this can lead to a president winning the election without the popular vote. He mentions that this system can demotivate voters in states with predictable outcomes. The discussion transitions to evaluating Trump and Biden's policies and their implications for Taiwan.
🇨🇳 US-China Relations Under Trump and Biden
Toer compares Trump and Biden's approaches to China and their impact on Taiwan. Trump is described as tough on China, unpredictable, and prioritizing loyalty over competence. Biden, on the other hand, continued Trump's tariffs, is seen as less unpredictable, and relies on a more competent staff. Biden's administration has provided significant military aid to Taiwan and strengthened US presence in the region.
⚖️ Legal Issues of Trump and Biden's Family
Toer discusses the legal troubles faced by Trump and Biden's son, Hunter. Trump is a convicted felon with multiple pending cases, while Hunter Biden has a series of personal scandals and legal issues. Despite these issues, both Trump and Biden remain eligible to run for president. The discussion highlights the candidates' ages and the potential implications for their ability to serve.
🇹🇼 Which Candidate is Better for Taiwan?
Toer evaluates which candidate might be better for Taiwan. Trump is seen as unpredictable and less collaborative with allies, while Biden is viewed as weak but more stable with a functional administration. Both candidates have stated their support for Taiwan, but Toer believes Biden's structured approach and consistent policies make him a safer choice for Taiwan.
🔮 Predicting the Election Outcome
Toer predicts that Biden has an edge in the upcoming election due to Trump's alienation of some Republicans and the impact of the abortion rights issue. He also notes the potential influence of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Toer concludes that although the election remains uncertain, Biden's previous victory over Trump and current circumstances favor him. He expresses his dissatisfaction with the current candidates and hopes for a peaceful future.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Election Year
💡Electoral College
💡Independent Voters
💡Populist Vote
💡Purple States
💡Trade War
💡One China Policy
💡Never Trumpers
💡Third Party Candidate
💡VPN
Highlights
It's election year in the United States with a potential rematch between Biden and Trump for the presidency.
The election outcome will have an impact on both America and Taiwan.
Surfshark VPN is sponsored as a top VPN with internet security tools like virus scanners and ad blockers.
Surfshark allows changing IP addresses to access geo-restricted content.
Transcripts
hey toer here so it is election year
again in the United States and we have a
rematch on who will be the next
president will it be Biden will it be
Trump now to be 100% honest I don't even
want to make this video I don't like
talking about this it's kind of
embarrassing it's kind of frustrating
for me but the outcome of this election
will affect America and it will
certainly affect Taiwan so I feel that I
need to talk about this that I need to
make this video so we're going to
discuss a little bit about how elections
work in the US which candidate would be
better for Taiwan and why and at the
very end of the video I
promise I'll give you my opinion my
opinion on who is more likely to win
before we get started uh I want to give
a quick thank you to this video's
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of your streaming services like Netflix
and Disney plus and even YouTube so in
the USA there are two main political
parties Trump's party the Republicans
have a symbol of an elephant and their
party color is red now Biden's party are
called the Democrats and their party
color is blue and their Party symbol is
a donkey I personally think that party
symbols donkey and elephant are really
strange because donkey is just a weird
mascot and there are no elephants native
in North America so I really don't
understand either of those mascots but
that's what they are elephant and donkey
but actually the largest group of Voters
don't belong to either party they are
independent voters that's me I'm
independent and technically the largest
group of Voters are actually people who
don't vote now you might be wondering
why don't people vote in the USA what's
going on well Taiwan is actually a
healthier democracy than the USA you see
in the USA voting for president it
happens just on one day and it's not a
convenient day it's a Tuesday they call
it super Tuesday and it's not even all
day it's maybe 12 hours of the day and
many people don't necessarily live next
to a place where you can vote so it's
not very convenient and it's not a
national holiday you're expected to go
to work that day so there's many people
who simply just can't afford to go vote
they have to work it's not cool now some
states do have mail-in ballots which
does make it easier but not all states
now also when Americans are voting for
the president it's not one person one
vote that's not how it works it's this
actually very complicated system called
The Electoral
College so the way this works briefly is
that every state has what's called
electoral votes and who whichever
candidate gets the majority of votes
within that state all all of the state's
electoral votes go to that candidate and
the number of electoral votes that a
state has it depends on its
population but the ratio isn't really
fair so a state that has a huge
population like California that person's
vote literally counts less than a vote
in a less populated state like
Alaska not cool this is how president
presidents can actually lose the popular
vote which means more people will vote
for their opponent but they can still
get elected president because they win
the electoral college vote it's really
weird now this is what happened with
Trump in 2016 he lost the popular vote
but he won the Electoral College vote so
he became president this system actually
discourages a lot of people from voting
because if there from a state where the
majority are obviously going to vote for
a certain political party like if you
live in Texas the chances that the
majority of the people are going to vote
for Republican is extremely high it's
basically a certainty then if you're
voting Democrat your vote really doesn't
count so a lot of people just don't vote
they don't waste their time so let's
evaluate Trump and Biden's past
performance and
predict what we think which candidate
would be better for
Taiwan now Trump is historically pretty
tough on China part of his 2016 campaign
was talking about how dangerous China
actually is and Trump was fairly
friendly towards
Taiwan Trump initiated the tariffs
against China so he started the trade
war that China and the US are currently
involved in Trump is also very
unpredictable and he doesn't go along
with the status quo for example he met
with Kim Jong-un and he doesn't really
abide by traditional US policies like
the one China policy one of the issues
with Trump though is that he favors
loyalty over competence when it comes to
deciding who's in his staff who's in his
presidential cabinet so as a result he
didn't really get along very well with
the Joint Chiefs of Staff sta in the
military now in Biden's presidency he
took all those tariffs that Trump did
previously and actually doubled down the
trade War escalated under Biden
especially when it comes to Hightech
stuff like
semiconductors so Biden has been just as
tough on China As Trump was but unlike
Trump Biden is not a loose cannon he
follows the US traditional policy and
unlike Trump Biden relies very heavily
on his staff and his staff is arguably
more competent than Trump's ever was now
yes Biden's staff are a lot of
Washington insiders they a lot of career
politicians but they know how to play
the game and they work well together so
Biden's relationship with the military
is much better than Trump's relationship
with the military ever was under Biden's
Administration the US has given Taiwan
billions of dollars for military
spending also under Biden the US Navy
established a base in Northern
Philippines and they have bolstered the
presence in Guam and okanawa so the US
Navy has a much stronger presence around
Taiwan under Biden's leadership plus
Biden plays ball with Australia and
Japan the biggest problem with Biden is
that China views him as being weak
because he's afraid old man also when
the US left Afghanistan that was
technically under Biden's watch even
though the US withdrawal from
Afghanistan was Trump's plan it happened
under Biden and that was a big mess
there's really nothing good to say about
it so from the Chinese perspective Biden
appeared super weak and in the Chinese
perspective Trump is just a loose canon
they don't know what to expect from him
now both candidates have their own set
of problems both have like different
flavors of corruption now Trump is the
first former president to be a convicted
felon and that's really just kind of the
beginning of Trump's legal problems he
still has many more indictments against
him there's three more cases all of
these are felonies uh two of them are
interfering with election results and
the other one is basically stealing top
secret information classified documents
none of these are good and there is a
chance that Trump might go to prison but
even though Trump is a convicted felon
it only means he can't vote there's
nothing in the US laws saying that a
convicted felon even someone in prison
can't run for president so he can still
run for president if he's found guilty
and in prison and if he's elected
president
he can pardon himself of all of his
crimes Biden has his own set of problems
especially with his son Hunter Hunter
Biden is President Biden's surviving son
his other son died and Hunter Biden has
all sorts of issues he has his own set
of legal problems his like his Hunter
Biden's life is like a bad TV drama it's
really strange I mean he filmed himself
doing drugs with a prostitute and had
that footage on a laptop which he lost
in the laptop repair center so the world
found out about it that's not even the
weirdest thing he had a relationship
with his brother's widow and bought a
gun where he lied on the form to buy a
gun which is a felony so he has his own
set of issues isues like it's just it's
so it's all so absurd it's so
embarrassing and the problem that both
of these men have is that they're both
very old Biden especially looks very old
and frail so there's a chance that Trump
or Biden or or both of them could die of
old age before the election even happens
so which one of these candidates is
better for Taiwan well on one hand
there's Trump who is very unpredictable
China would be very afraid to act
against Taiwan because they don't know
how Trump would respond but Trump
historically does not play well with
others he doesn't get along with the US
Military and his unpredictable nature is
seen as a threat to America's allies as
well so the American relationship with
other Regional players in the Pacific
like Japan and Australia and the
Philippines we just don't know how that
would play out under President Trump
Biden appears weak in the eyes of China
but Biden has a much more functional
Administration the US government is much
more functional under
Biden and that includes the military now
this is basically because Biden just
does what his staff tells him to do
because he's a frail old man
but Biden has also repeatedly said that
he would commit American forces to
defending Taiwan in the case of a
Chinese attack so both options are not
terrible options for Taiwan but in my
opinion I think that Taiwan would be
safer under Biden than it would under
Trump but who will actually win the
election ah here this is what you're
here for
now remember we mentioned that the
largest group of Voters in the US are
The Independents they're not members of
either party the Republicans or the
Democrats and we talked about that
Electoral College well it's the
independent voters in the states that
could flip between red or blue these are
called the purple States these are the
real Battleground States for a
campaign the Republic an have a couple
of things going against them in this
election first thing is that Trump has
alienated many lifelong Republicans they
have basically quit the Republican party
when it comes to presidential elections
they call themselves never trumpers so
the traditional Republican strength in
these purple States isn't quite there
also a few years ago the Republicans
took took away the Federal Protection
for abortion rights for women many many
most almost everybody in the US is a
single isue voter which means they
really just care about one thing and
that's why they vote the way that they
do so every independent voter who really
cares about women's rights and abortion
rights are going to vote against the
Republicans now of course Trump is a
convicted felon there's all sorts of
independent voters who don't want the
embarrassment of having a convicted
felon as their president so that's a
knock against Trump now Biden's
Administration hasn't been perfect I
mean there's a lot of people who are
very angry at how Biden's Administration
handled the last few years of
covid-19 and the whole whole Israel
Hamas issue and Gaza there's a lot of
people who are very angry with Biden as
a result another issue to make things
even more complicated is that there is a
significant Third Party candidate yes
this year we have a third candidate
Robert F Kennedy Jr and the Kennedy
family is a very influential family in
the
USA President Kennedy was very popular
before he was assassinated however
Robert Kennedy Jr RFK Jr his own family
has campaigned against him this is
because he's kind of crazy like he
literally has had a brain eating worm in
his
head that's that's not a joke that
actually
happened and he really hammers on some
fairly wild conspiracy theories now
usually a third party is going to harm
one of the two candidates that is
running because they're going to take
votes away from one of the two major
candidates in this case RFK is going to
be taking votes away from people who
would probably be voting for Trump
otherwise so because of all of these
factors it's in my opinion that Biden
has the edge in this upcoming election I
mean Biden already beat Trump once and
with everything else that I just
mentioned I don't think it's that much
of a stretch to say that Biden has a
significant chance of winning again is
it a sure thing no I'm not saying that
but my own personal opinion about all of
this is that I think this is very
embarrassing I think that these two old
men are definitely not the best
candidates that America could put forth
but this is who we have it's a choice
that most Americans don't want to make
me included all right hey thanks a lot
for for watching that's all I have for
today please don't skin me alive in the
comments please be kind a huge massive
thank you to all my patreon and YouTube
members you guys are the best you've
changed my life thank you so much please
check out some of my other videos
especially if you like geopolitics
concerning Taiwan let's hope that we can
all live in a more peaceful world
everybody wants to live in peace and
prosperity let's hope that can happen
peace and love
I'll see you thanks
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