ICT 2026 New York Lunch Algorithmic Theory \ March 11, 2026

Summary

In this detailed trading session, the speaker breaks down advanced market mechanics, focusing on post-CPI price action, liquidity pools, and the New York lunch session. Viewers learn how to identify buy-side and sell-side inefficiencies, use fair value gaps, and anchor trades to precise candlestick levels. The session emphasizes anticipating reversals, managing risk with micro contracts, and understanding the influence of options expiration on market range. Through analogies like a rigged casino, the speaker illustrates how institutional flows shape price movement. Practical strategies, including the 'turtle soup' setup and event horizon targets, equip traders to execute precise, high-probability trades while minimizing risk.

Takeaways

• 😀 Avoid predicting CPI outcomes in advance; wait for market reactions to fade the movement.
• 😀 In range-bound markets, post-CPI reactions are ideal for setting up easy trades.
• 😀 Focus on the New York lunch period (1:30 PM Eastern) as it often signals potential reversals and liquidity movements.
• 😀 Reversal trades should be based on inefficiencies before liquidity pools are taken (buy-side/sell-side).
• 😀 Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) can be used as a key indicator for market direction, especially when revisited the next day.
• 😀 'Inversion Fair Value Gap' strategy: when a gap forms, it can signal a reversal in price direction.
• 😀 Use 'Event Horizon' to pinpoint the midpoint between two liquidity pools, offering a clearer target for trades.
• 😀 Discipline in execution is vital: Avoid random trades, and always anchor decisions to market structures and algorithmic principles.
• 😀 Option expiration periods, like triple witching, may bring smoother price action post-expiration, but consolidation remains until then.
• 😀 Watch for abnormal market behavior, such as in the silver market, for potential future opportunities and insights into broader trends.

Q & A

What is the speaker's main advice when trading around CPI announcements?

The speaker advises not to predict the CPI outcome beforehand. Instead, observe the market reaction and then either fade or follow the trend, depending on whether the market is range-bound or trending.

What is the significance of the 2-hour New York lunch window in the trading strategy?

The 10:00 AM to 1:30 PM Eastern time window during New York lunch is critical for identifying buy-side or sell-side liquidity. Inefficiencies in this period, especially just before liquidity is taken, can be carried forward to anticipate next-day price reversals or setups.

What is a fair value gap (FVG), and how is it used in this strategy?

A fair value gap is an area where price moves inefficiently, leaving an imbalance between buyers and sellers. Traders use it to predict reversals or continuation, anchoring the gap to candlestick highs or lows and targeting price moves toward or away from it.

What does the speaker mean by 'event horizon'?

Event horizon refers to the midpoint between two liquidity pools. It serves as a target for trades, allowing traders to plan exits and manage risk effectively when price moves toward this central point between two significant liquidity levels.

How does the speaker suggest using prior day price action to inform trading decisions?

Traders should analyze prior day sessions, especially the 2-hour lunch period, to identify where liquidity was taken and where inefficiencies occurred. These levels can then be carried forward into the next day to anticipate highs, lows, and potential reversal points.

What is the 'Turtle Soup' strategy mentioned in the transcript?

The Turtle Soup strategy involves targeting extremes of a range after liquidity has been taken. By identifying the first fair value gap before liquidity is captured, traders can predict next-day highs or lows and execute low-risk entries based on these traps.

Why does the speaker emphasize trading with precision rather than randomly?

The speaker compares successful trading to being a highly trained sniper. Trades are carefully planned, anchored in structural analysis, and executed based on algorithmic principles and prior price action rather than guessing or chasing price movements.

What role do liquidity pools play in the trading approach discussed?

Liquidity pools are areas where stop-loss orders or large algorithmic orders accumulate. Identifying these pools helps traders anticipate where price is likely to reverse or consolidate, providing precise entry and exit points.

How does the speaker relate market behavior to option expirations and triple witching?

The speaker believes that markets are being held in consolidation due to heavy short positions and options expirations. Triple witching, when multiple contracts expire, often leads to more price action and less constrained market movement, allowing potential breakouts.

Why does the speaker prefer to trade shorts over longs in the current market environment?

The speaker prefers shorts because they anticipate sudden, unexpected price drops due to the market being range-bound and supported artificially. Shorting allows them to take advantage of these movements while managing risk effectively.

What is the importance of anchoring trades to specific candlestick highs and lows?

Anchoring trades to candlestick highs and lows ensures that entries and exits are aligned with precise market inefficiencies and algorithmic order flow, improving the probability of successful trades and minimizing exposure to random price movements.

How can traders apply the speaker's strategies even with small accounts?

Traders can start with micro contracts or small positions, focusing on precision and methodical application of inefficiencies, fair value gaps, and liquidity pools. This allows them to practice disciplined trading and build skill before scaling up.