This Is Actually Happening on Ethereum.

Summary

Ethereum's market dynamics are shifting, with long-term holders reducing their positions to their lowest level in five years, while Ethereum treasury companies are aggressively accumulating. This trend, combined with favorable financial conditions—such as a weakening US dollar, low oil prices, and falling interest rates—signals potential continued growth for Ethereum. Despite profit-taking by smart money, the macroeconomic backdrop suggests that Ethereum’s bull run is not yet over. This environment, similar to past bull runs, points to more upside potential for Ethereum in the near future.

Takeaways

• 😀 Ethereum's long-term holders have reduced their supply to 41%, dropping by 10% over the past 10 months, signaling aggressive profit-taking.
• 😀 The drop in long-term holders mirrors the profit-taking trend seen before Ethereum's 2021 price collapse, suggesting well-timed exits by 'smart money'.
• 😀 Ethereum treasury companies, holding Ethereum as part of corporate reserves, have accumulated nearly 3 million tokens, about 2.5% of Ethereum's total supply in just 3 months.
• 😀 Financial conditions, a set of variables influencing investor risk, are key to determining Ethereum's price movement. A favorable financial environment is essential for Ethereum's price to rise.
• 😀 A weaker US dollar tends to drive up demand for Ethereum, making it cheaper for foreign investors to buy, which historically aligns with Ethereum's price bull runs.
• 😀 In 2025, the US dollar saw a sharp decline, which has contributed to a positive macro backdrop for Ethereum, similar to past bull runs.
• 😀 Oil prices have been falling in 2025, which helps reduce inflation and supports consumer spending, creating favorable conditions for Ethereum's growth.
• 😀 Falling US interest rates are also a key factor, as lower rates reduce borrowing costs and push more capital toward risk assets like Ethereum.
• 😀 The market is expecting at least a 25 basis point interest rate cut by September 2025, which historically aligns with bullish behavior in crypto markets.
• 😀 With the combination of a weaker dollar, falling oil prices, and expected interest rate cuts, the financial conditions are 'green' for risk assets like Ethereum, creating an ideal environment for price increases.
• 😀 Despite recent profit-taking by long-term holders, similar behavior in 2021 did not immediately lead to Ethereum's top, implying more upside potential until around January 2026.
• 😀 The current setup with favorable macro conditions suggests that Ethereum's bull market could continue, and recent trades in Ethereum and altcoins have shown high potential for gains.

Q & A

What recent trend has been observed in Ethereum holdings by long-term holders?

Ethereum held by long-term holders has dropped to its lowest recorded level of 41%, representing roughly 11 million ETH sold over the last 10 months.

How does the recent profit-taking by long-term Ethereum holders compare historically?

This aggressive profit-taking is similar to what was observed in 2021, just before Ethereum experienced an 80% price collapse.

What are Ethereum treasury companies, and what has been their recent activity?

Ethereum treasury companies are businesses holding Ethereum as part of their corporate reserves. Their holdings have surged from 40,000 ETH in June 2025 to nearly 3 million ETH in three months, roughly 2.5% of the total supply.

Which three financial conditions are identified as key drivers for Ethereum price movements?

The three key financial conditions are: the US dollar strength, oil prices, and US interest rates.

How does the US dollar impact Ethereum prices?

A weaker US dollar makes Ethereum cheaper for foreign investors, increasing demand, whereas a stronger dollar typically reduces international investment in Ethereum.

Why are lower oil prices considered positive for Ethereum and risk assets?

Lower oil prices reduce inflation, maintain consumer spending, support economic resilience, and historically coincide with favorable conditions for Ethereum price recovery.

How do US interest rates influence Ethereum's performance?

Falling interest rates lower borrowing costs and discount rates, pushing capital toward risk assets like Ethereum, while rate hikes typically coincide with market peaks and price pullbacks.

Does the recent profit-taking by long-term holders indicate an immediate peak in Ethereum price?

No. Historical patterns suggest that Ethereum rallies can continue despite ongoing profit-taking, with the current phase roughly 300 days in, implying potential continuation of the bull market into early 2026.

What is the trading strategy employed by Bravo's Research in this context?

Bravo's Research blends technical analysis with macroeconomic factors, taking aggressive long positions when all three key financial conditions are favorable and shifting defensive when conditions tighten.

How successful has Bravo's Research been with their trading strategy over the past year?

Their trades on Ethereum and other altcoins have achieved gains of 29%, 37%, and even 83%, with losses limited to around 5% when trades did not perform as expected.

What is the overall outlook for Ethereum based on the video analysis?

With all three macro variables—weakening dollar, low oil prices, and falling interest rates—currently favorable, Ethereum is positioned in the later stages of its bull market with potential for further upside before a major top forms.