Capehart and Johnson on immigration, Trump's defamation case and the 2024 race

Summary

The transcript covers debates over immigration policy and aid to Ukraine. Former President Trump is pressuring Republicans to reject any compromise deals, while President Biden and some GOP senators support bipartisan agreements. The midterms and 2024 presidential race loom large, with Trump the likely Republican nominee but facing criticisms from primary rival Nikki Haley and vulnerability in the general election. Biden, meanwhile, is shifting into general election mode, looking stronger amid positive economic signs but still vulnerable on immigration and the economy in voters' minds.

Takeaways

• 😕 Former President Trump urged lawmakers to reject any immigration deal, putting Ukraine funding on hold.
• 🤔 There are disagreements between Trump and some Republicans like Romney and McConnell on the immigration deal.
• 😠 Biden accused Republicans of not being serious about the border crisis if they reject a bipartisan bill.
• 😡 A jury awarded Jean Carroll $83 million in her defamation lawsuit against Trump.
• 🤨 Haley's strong performance in early primaries revealed Trump's weaknesses with independents and women.
• 🧐 Haley's continued campaign could hurt Trump in a prolonged primary by alienating key voters.
• 👍 Biden had a good week economically and shifted his campaign into general election mode.
• 😎 Key Biden advisers like Donilon are moving to the campaign from the White House.
• 😤 The Biden campaign sees Trump as the likely nominee and is ready to take him on.
• 🤔 Eliana Johnson believes Biden is most vulnerable to Republican attacks on immigration and the economy.

Q & A

What is the main topic of discussion in the transcript?

The main topic is congressional negotiations over an immigration and border security deal, and how former President Trump's opposition to it may impact its chances of passage.

What two pieces of legislation are tied together in the proposed deal?

The deal ties together funding for Ukraine along with provisions to strengthen border security.

Who does the transcript say is urging lawmakers to reject the deal?

The transcript says former President Donald Trump is urging Republican lawmakers to reject any compromise immigration deal.

What critique did Senator Mitt Romney have of Trump's actions regarding the deal?

Romney criticized Trump for telling Republicans not to solve the border problem in order to blame Biden, calling it "appalling".

What argument is President Biden making in support of the deal?

Biden argues that the deal represents a bipartisan solution to strengthen border control, and that rejecting it shows Republicans aren't serious about addressing the border crisis.

How does the transcript characterize Mitch McConnell's position on the deal versus other Republicans'?

It states McConnell strongly supports the Ukraine funding portion, while other Republicans like Speaker Johnson are more closely aligned with Trump's opposition.

What are two constituencies the transcript identifies as potential weaknesses for Trump in the general election?

It names independent voters and college-educated voters as groups Trump struggled with compared to Nikki Haley in early primaries.

What recent positive developments are noted for President Biden?

The transcript highlights recent strong economic numbers, a major union endorsement, and a shift to general election mode by his top campaign staff.

What two issues does Eliana Johnson identify as Biden's biggest vulnerabilities?

She names immigration and the economy as the issues most likely to determine the election outcome.

What strategy does the transcript say Biden's campaign is already employing against Trump?

It states Biden has already been giving speeches on threats to democracy, previewing a likely general election theme against Trump.

Outlines

00:00

🤝 Funding for Ukraine on hold as Trump urges rejection of immigration deal

Paragraph 1 discusses how funding for Ukraine is being held up after former President Trump urged Republican lawmakers to reject any potential compromise immigration legislation that is being negotiated. His pressure comes as Congress tries to pass a border security and Ukraine aid package. Some Republican senators like Mitt Romney have spoken out against Trump's actions.

05:05

👪 Trump's pressure further jeopardizes prospects for deal passage

Paragraph 2 analyzes the implications of Trump's pressure on the chances for an immigration and Ukraine aid deal getting passed by Congress. It also examines the political calculations behind the stances of figures like Trump, Biden, McConnell and others on the negotiations.

10:08

🗳️ Haley's rise highlights Trump's general election weaknesses

Paragraph 3 explores how Nikki Haley's surge in the GOP primary reveals vulnerabilities for Trump in a general election, especially with independents and suburban women. It also discusses Biden shifting into more of a general election mode and where he is most vulnerable on issues like the economy and immigration.

Keywords

💡immigration

Immigration is a key theme in the video script. It refers to the movement of people into a country to live permanently. The debate over immigration policy, particularly at the US-Mexico border, is a major point of contention between Democrats and Republicans. The script discusses negotiations over an immigration reform bill, with Trump pressuring Republicans to reject a compromise deal proposed by Democrats that would provide border security funding in exchange for some immigration concessions. The immigration issue is presented as a vulnerability for Biden that Republicans will likely attack him on in the election.

💡compromise

Compromise is brought up several times in the context of negotiations over the immigration reform bill. It refers to each side giving up something to reach an agreement. The script mentions Republicans rejecting compromise deals on immigration proposed by Democrats. This illustrates the difficulty of reaching a compromise on such a divisive issue in the current political climate.

💡border security

Border security refers to measures to control and monitor immigration across a country's borders. It is a key component of the proposed immigration reform bill being debated, which would provide funding for enhanced border security. Trump and Republicans have criticized Biden as being weak on border security and want tougher provisions in exchange for compromising on other immigration issues.

💡Ukraine funding

The Ukraine funding refers to proposed aid for Ukraine in its war against Russia. It is tied to the immigration reform negotiations, with Republicans agreeing to Ukraine funding in exchange for Democratic concessions on immigration provisions. Ukraine aid has bipartisan support but is being used as leverage in the immigration debate.

💡general election

The general election refers to the final election contest between the Republican and Democratic nominees for president. With Trump likely to be the Republican nominee, both his campaign and Biden's are shifting into general election mode earlier than usual. Their contrasting strategies and vulnerabilities are analyzed in this context.

💡nominee

Nominee refers to the candidate selected by a party to run in the general election. With the early Republican primaries over, Trump is considered the presumptive nominee. The script looks at potential running mates like Nikki Haley who could become the vice presidential nominee.

💡independent voters

Independent voters refers to those not affiliated with either major party. The script notes Haley's strength among independent voters compared to Trump. Winning independents will be key for either party in the general election so this is seen as a vulnerability for Trump.

💡defamation

Defamation refers to damaging the reputation of someone by making false statements. A jury awarded damages to Jean Carroll for Trump defaming her when he denied her sexual assault allegations. This illustrates potential reputational damage for Trump in the election.

💡economy

The economy is noted as a key issue in the election that can influence voters. Despite positive numbers currently, the script suggests voters are still feeling economic uncertainty. This makes the economy an area of vulnerability for Biden that Trump may target.

💡foreign policy

Foreign policy refers to how a nation engages with other countries globally. It is brought up as an area where problems and crises may emerge ahead of the election. However, the script notes foreign policy rarely decides elections compared to issues like the economy.

Highlights

Funding for Ukraine is on hold as former President Donald Trump has urged lawmakers to reject any compromise immigration deal.

Speaker Mike Johnson said the Senate bill on border security and Ukraine funding is dead on arrival in the House.

Senator Mitt Romney called it appalling that Trump doesn't want Republicans to solve the border problem so he can blame Biden.

Jonathan Capehart said the border security bill was on life support and Trump's pressure may have killed it.

Eliana Johnson said she is skeptical the border security bill will pass due to political calculations in an election year.

Mitch McConnell supports Ukraine funding as a legacy issue, while Trump wants to campaign on the border crisis.

Speaker Johnson is in constant communication with Trump and won't pass any Senate deal.

Trump's poll numbers rose after his first indictment, which could hurt him in the general election.

Nikki Haley won independent voters who don't like Trump's behavior and will matter in the general election.

The defamation lawsuit verdict threatens to hurt Trump among women and independents in the general election.

Biden advisers instrumental in his 2020 win are shifting to the campaign from the White House.

Biden gave a speech on threats to democracy, which will likely be a general election theme.

Biden is most vulnerable to Republican attacks on immigration and the economy.

Voters probably won't pick up on the nuance of Republicans rejecting Democrats' border security offer.

Foreign policy issues don't tend to determine how people cast their votes.

Transcripts

Funding for Ukraine is on hold as former President Donald Trump has

urged lawmakers to reject any compromise immigration deal on that

battle and the other stories shaping the week we turn now to the

analysis of K part and Johnson that is Jonathan Capehart, associate

editor for The Washington Post, and Eliana Johnson, editor in chief

of the Washington Free Beacon. David Brooks is away. Good to see

you both. Thanks for being here. We reported earlier. Speaker Mike

Johnson is basically said in the letter to his colleagues today that

the Senate bill on border security in Ukraine funding is dead on

arrival in the House. That's after former President Trump was ramping

up his pressure on Republicans to kill the deal. Republican Senator

Mitt Romney had this to say about that yesterday. The fact that he

would communicate to Republican senators and Congress people that

he doesn't want us to solve the border problem because he wants to

blame

Biden. For it is, it is really appalling. Jonathan deal was really

on life support. Did Mr Trump's pressure just put it into the ground?

I don't know. I mean, Senator Romney isn't the only one who's speaking

out against what the former president is asking them to do. Speaking

out in favor of a bill that under normal circumstances, they wouldn't

get to keep in mind. We're talking about a bill that no one has seen,

at least meaning none of us at this table that it hasn't it has not

been released. We're just talking about rumors of what might be in

the bill, which is, I think the word rumors what Speaker Johnson

used in that letter. Um It is my hope that Senator Romney, Senator

Graham, Senator Cramer from North Dakota and the other six

Stay, stay cohesive, Stay at the bargaining table and come up with

something because the idea that you won't that you shouldn't come

up with something because it will give President Biden some some

sort of win is appalling. These are the same people who have been

complaining about open borders and invasions and fentanyl killing

Americans coming over the border. And why won't the President President

Biden do anything? They're trying to do it. And yet they're standing

in the way to that point, President Biden put out a statement in

response to all of this late today. Here's what he said in party

called the deal a win for America, he said. For anyone for everyone

rather who is demanding tougher border control. This is the way to

do it. If you're serious about the border crisis, he writes, pass

a bipartisan bill and I will sign it. So Eliana are Republicans really

serious about addressing the border crisis? That statement from President

Biden was is clearly going to be his message. I am skeptical that

this bill is going to pass. But immigration and the border have been

a problem for President Biden and you can see him now prepared to

say we came wanting to sign a deal with the toughest border provisions.

Um In a long time, and Republicans rejected that, Um the question

is whether Biden will actually be able to get out from under all

of the bad press, um, and his poor handling of the border up until

now, How closely are people actually paying attention to this? There

are a couple of other interesting dynamics here. Mitch McConnell,

the Senate minority leader. This deal is Republican support for Ukraine

funding in exchange for Democrats agreeing to tougher border provisions,

which McConnell has been the loudest proponent on the Republican

side of Ukraine funding. He's going to be in favor of the steel.

It is very much a legacy issue for him, so it looks like very much

it's going to be President. Trump who wants to campaign on the bad

situation at the border versus Mitch McConnell in the Senate, wanting

this legacy issue of more funding for Ukraine, McConnell or Speaker

Johnson. Never defy President Trump and agree to a deal. Mitch McConnell

would certainly defy President Trump. He's leaving. Yeah, you know,

I think you inspect and believe he's not beholden to anyone. Others

are more skeptical, and I think they are making you know more cynical

political calculations in an election year, and the House already

passed a much tougher border deal. And what Speaker Johnson came

out and said, is that if the Senate deal is not near almost as tough

as the House deal, this thing is dead. And it's not going to be as

tough as that. House deal also point out the fact that Speaker Johnson

is in near constant communication with Donald Trump and So we know

what's going what's going on here? No matter what the Senate comes

up with. Ah, the house is not going to pass it. Not at all. And certainly

they're not going to come up with a bill that could even garner a

single democratic vote. Well, this is all of course, unfolding with

the presidential campaign in the background and Mr Trump now being

the likely presumptive nominee, I want to get both of your takes

on what the biggest takeaways were coming out of these early contests

in Iowa and New Hampshire. And also we saw his strengths now, right,

Jonathan, we kind of know where his core constituencies and his loyal

base are. But you also saw today this key judgment from a jury awarding

Jean Carroll $83 million for that he has to pay for defaming her

any of this vulnerability for him. Not in the not in the primary,

not not during the primary campaign because, as we've seen, his poll

numbers started going up among the primary electorate the moment

he got that first indictment, the problem comes in. If he does, indeed

become the nominee. Now he's in the general election campaign, and

there are certainly Democrats aren't going to vote for him. But there

are a lot of Republicans who are troubled by these felony indictments.

Who I think would be troubled by the fact that Former president of

the United States today has been ordered to pay $83.3 million to

a woman he defamed in a lawsuit that had already determined he's

sexually assaulted her. I'm old enough to remember Republican Party

where that guy would have been run out of town, let alone you know,

don't even think about running for president and yet He is in the

hunt. But what the Nikki Haley's Um second place finish in New Hampshire

showed, though, that independent voters went to her and independent

voters in the general election are going to be a big deal, and they

don't like I don't think they like what Trump is up to. And then

if you when you add on top of it, and it will be the last thing I

say the abortion issue Yes, I think the whoever the Republican tickets

in trouble which we know is the central part of the Biden Harris

reelection campaign. Eliana, How do you Look at this. Um

Look, I don't think this verdict is telling voters anything They

don't already know about President Trump. They know he's crashed.

They know he's undisciplined. They know he can be offensive. But

I do think that Nikki Haley's campaign against him in Iowa and New

Hampshire has revealed some of his weaknesses. She won overwhelmingly

independent voters and college educated voters. It's pretty clear.

I think that Donald Trump may not need those voters to win the primaries,

he's got the base of the Republican Party behind him. He will, however,

need those voters to win a general election. It's more than likely

and I do think this is where the lawsuit is relevant. Um The lawsuit

can hurt him among women and independents, as can a prolonged primary

campaign against Nikki Haley, where he is more likely, the longer

this goes on to say some things, you know, he made a comment on the

night of the New Hampshire primary about Nikki Haley's dress that

it was, you know, she tried to look nice, but the dress was uglier.

You know something along those lines. Those are sorts of those sorts

of comments that that middle of the road women

alienating to them, and he does need those people in a general election.

You think that's going to hurt him in the long run, so I think it

threatens to. So how do you see? What do you see as Nikki Haley strategy

Right now, Your campaign has said that they've raised over a million

dollars since the New Hampshire primary. Is this about just staying

in to weaken former President Trump is looking for a vice presidential

pick here. What's the play? We got to see what she does over the

next week to see Is she in this just into Well after South Carolina,

or is she in this for the long haul? Is this about securing the vice

presidential nomination? Or is it about trying to reshape the party

in 2028 and beyond? I'm not quite sure we know that from her from

her, yet we should also note President Biden had an objectively Good

week. This week, there were more strong economic numbers. He got

a big endorsement from the United Auto Workers Union. He's really

shifting into much more of a general election campaign. You've got

key advisers like Generally, Dylan and McDonnell and architects of

his 2020 win now shifting to the campaign from the White House or

Are they in a more general election mode now? And what does that

mean for the campaign? Yes, They're in a general election mode now

because it looks like Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential

nominee. It is, I think, a fight that they are looking very much

looking forward to to have As we saw. I think it was New Hampshire

primary night when the Biden campaign put out a statement, um, slamming

Donald Trump but also slamming Nikki Haley is saying, you know, it

doesn't matter. She basically she's Trump laid. She's she supports

all the things that he supports, so bring it on, no matter which

one comes out there, But I do think that the campaign shifting into

general election mode now is the smart thing to do, And it's the

necessary thing to do because we know with Donald Trump. He's constantly

Campaign mode, whether he's sitting in the courtroom or standing

on the sidewalk, giving a press conference or actually on the stage

in Iowa or New Hampshire, and I think there's The sooner that the

Biden campaign gets out there, the more that it will be on. I just

think everyone needs to buckle up because between now and Election

Day is going to be rough. Buckle up is a message from diving Eliana.

How do you look at this? And where do you think President Biden is

most vulnerable when it comes to Republican attacks. I think the

Biden campaign has been in general election mode for quite a long

time. You know, he gave a big speech on democracy and the threats

to democracy has given a couple of them in the past six months, and

I think that's very much going to be a general election theme from

him. I think Biden is most vulnerable on immigration and the economy

and I am skeptical. I said. A couple of minutes ago that I'm not

sure voters will pick up on this nuance of Republicans rejecting

the offer from Democrats. I think they probably won't and Biden will

be blamed for the situation at the southern border, and I think he's

vulnerable on the economy. Um the numbers are good, but I don't think

voters feel their situation is good, and you know, foreign policy.

There's a lot going on in the world right now. But it tends not to

be an issue that people actually cast a ballot on So I do think economy

immigration. Those are going to be the things that determine the

outcome of this election. Eliana Johnson. Jonathan Capehart. Good

to see you both. Thank you so much.