Has India Lost Bangladesh?

Summary

India and Bangladesh, once close allies due to shared history, culture, and geography, have seen their relations deteriorate rapidly. From a strong partnership built on security, trade, and cultural exchanges, tensions have escalated due to domestic political changes in Bangladesh, leading to the exile of its leader, Sheikh Hasina. Diplomatic tensions, economic challenges, and the involvement of China in Bangladesh's foreign policy have strained bilateral ties. The current crisis has serious geopolitical implications for South Asia, with both countries facing significant challenges in rebuilding their once-promising relationship.

Takeaways

• 😀 India and Bangladesh were once seen as South Asia's closest allies, sharing common history, culture, and geography.
• 😀 Relations between the two countries have severely deteriorated in recent years, with diplomatic ties soured and strategic cooperation weakening.
• 😀 Despite shared geographical boundaries and cultural similarities, India and Bangladesh differ in religion, with India being Hindu-majority and Bangladesh Muslim-majority.
• 😀 The historical relationship between the two countries dates back to British colonial rule, with Bengal being a politically significant region.
• 😀 The partition of British India in 1947 created Pakistan, which included East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), leading to tensions between East and West Pakistan.
• 😀 India played a significant role in Bangladesh's independence in 1971, offering aid and military intervention during the Bangladesh Liberation War.
• 😀 After Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's assassination in 1975, Bangladesh distanced itself from India and improved relations with Pakistan and China.
• 😀 The return to democracy in 1990 revitalized relations, and India and Bangladesh began rebuilding trust, especially under Sheikh Hasina's leadership.
• 😀 Sheikh Hasina's government strengthened ties with India, focusing on security cooperation, trade, and infrastructure projects.
• 😀 Domestic political unrest in Bangladesh, including Hasina's authoritarian rule, led to her resignation and exile in India in 2024, causing a breakdown in relations between the two countries.
• 😀 In response to tensions, Bangladesh has turned to China for support, with China offering loans, investments, and trade agreements, marking a shift in Bangladesh's foreign policy.
• 😀 Despite ongoing tensions, both countries face common challenges such as climate change, migration, and water resources, and cooperation remains essential for regional stability.

Q & A

What were the key reasons behind the initial close relationship between India and Bangladesh?

The close relationship between India and Bangladesh was built on shared history, culture, and geography. Both countries have a long border and cultural similarities, with India playing a crucial role in Bangladesh's independence in 1971, which earned it immense goodwill. The two nations cooperated on trade, security, and cultural diplomacy.

How did the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman affect India-Bangladesh relations?

The assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975 led to a shift in Bangladesh's political stance. The new military rulers distanced Bangladesh from India, downplaying India's role in Bangladesh's independence, and began aligning more closely with Pakistan and other Muslim states like Saudi Arabia.

What were the key factors that led to the deterioration of relations between India and Bangladesh in the early 2020s?

The deterioration began with the rise of criticism against Sheikh Hasina's government, accused of authoritarianism, corruption, silencing dissent, and rigging elections. Mass protests erupted in 2024, leading to Hasina's resignation and exile in India, which worsened diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Why did Bangladesh demand the extradition of Sheikh Hasina from India, and how did India respond?

Bangladesh demanded Hasina's extradition to face criminal charges, but India refused, citing concerns about the fairness of the trial and the potential political instability it could cause in Bangladesh. This issue became a significant diplomatic flashpoint.

What were the consequences of anti-Hindu violence in Bangladesh for India-Bangladesh relations?

The anti-Hindu violence in Bangladesh in late 2024 caused outrage in India, as many Indians felt that Bangladesh had not done enough to prevent or address the violence. This led to an attack on the Bangladeshi consulate in India, escalating tensions between the two countries.

What was the significance of India's decision to revoke transshipment rights for Bangladesh in 2025?

India's decision to revoke transshipment rights for Bangladeshi exports in April 2025 was widely seen as retaliation for Hasina's exile and a blow to Bangladesh's economy. This move added to the growing tensions and strained trade relations between the two nations.

What impact did Bangladesh's cancellation of a naval contract with an Indian shipyard have on bilateral relations?

The cancellation of a major naval contract with an Indian state-run shipyard in response to India's actions further deepened the rift between the two countries. It demonstrated how the political tensions were spilling over into military and defense cooperation.

Why did Bangladesh shift its foreign policy towards China in 2025, and what steps did China take to strengthen its relationship with Bangladesh?

As relations with India deteriorated, Bangladesh began to look to China for support. In March 2025, Prime Minister Yunus visited Beijing, marking a shift in foreign policy. China responded with over $2.1 billion in loans, grants, and investments, pledged to expand aid, and offered duty-free access for Bangladeshi exports. They also discussed deeper defense cooperation, signaling a significant change in Bangladesh's international alignment.

How might the deterioration of India-Bangladesh relations impact the geopolitical landscape of South Asia?

The deterioration could have serious geopolitical implications, especially if Bangladesh aligns more closely with China, India's regional rival. The close proximity of the two countries, both geographically and economically, makes a breakdown in relations particularly destabilizing. The shift could also shift the balance of power in South Asia and intensify tensions in the region.

Is there any possibility of reconciliation between India and Bangladesh, given the current situation?

While both countries still share common challenges, such as climate change, migration, and water resources, reconciliation will depend on political will and finding a way to manage their differences. The lack of signs of resolution, particularly over Hasina's extradition, suggests that a quick resolution is unlikely, but cooperation on shared challenges could still offer a path to rebuilding relations.