How To Catch The Highest Probability Setup (FULL GUIDE)

Sir Pickle
19 Jun 202432:40

Summary

TLDRこのビデオでは、相関資産の最も高い確率のセットアップをフィルタリングし取引する方法を紹介します。強気ペアと弱気ペアを特定し、最も強気なペアを選ぶことで、取引の勝率を高めます。キャンドルスティックロジック、スマートマネーテクニック、通貨ペア(EURGBP、AUDNZD)を使用した相対強度の判断方法と、通貨先物を活用した取引戦略を解説しています。これらの手法を組み合わせることで、市場で最も強気または弱気な通貨を特定し、高確率の取引セットアップを見つけ出すことができます。

Takeaways

  • 📈 トレーダーは相関性の高い通貨ペアの中で最も強力なペアをトレードすることが重要で、高い確率のセットアップをフィルタリングし、弱いペアには捕まったくない。
  • 📊 相対強度分析を使用して最高のトレードセットアップを見つけ、強力な通貨ペアを選ぶことで、トレードの成功確率を高めることができる。
  • 🔑 4つの異なる相対強度を決定する方法が紹介されており、それぞれ独自のアプローチを持っている。
  • 🕯️ カントルジロジック(CSL)は、キャンドルスティックの体とウィックを用いて価格アクションを分析する方法である。
  • 💡 スマートマネーテクニック(SMT)は、密接に関連する通貨ペアのスイングハイやスイングローの相違を利用してトレードの相対強度を判断する方法である。
  • 🌐 ヨーロペアン GBP(EURGBP)やオーストラリアンドル NZD(AUDNZD)を使用して、通貨間の相対強度を測定することができる。
  • 📊 通貨先物(Currency Futures)は、強硬な通貨と弱い通貨を組み合わせることで、高い確率のクロスペアトレードを見つけるための有効なツールである。
  • 📉 弱い通貨ペアは避けるべきで、代わりに強硬な通貨ペアを選ぶことで、有利な価格アクションを経験する可能性が高まる。
  • 📝 トレードアイデアは、より大きな時間枠のポイントから始まり、SMTやEGなどの分析を用いて、より高い確率のトレードを選択する。
  • 🔄 すべての分析方法は相互に関連しており、同じ結論に至るための異なるアプローチを提供している。
  • 📈 トレーダーは、これらのステップに従って、その週の最も高い確率のクロスペアをトレードすることができる。

Transcripts

play00:01

what's up guys welcome to another video

play00:03

if you're new here please go ahead and

play00:06

hit that subscribe button down below and

play00:08

if you find this video insightful I'd

play00:10

really appreciate it if you shared it

play00:12

with your friends now in this video I'm

play00:15

going to be showing you guys how we can

play00:17

filter for and trade the highest

play00:20

probability setups using relative

play00:23

strength analysis we always want to

play00:26

trade the strongest pair and make sure

play00:30

we aren't caught in the weak one this is

play00:32

a huge issue I used to face always

play00:34

finding myself in the weaker pair now

play00:36

being aware that the highest probable

play00:39

trade setups come from Trading the

play00:41

strongest pair between two closely

play00:43

correlated assets so here is a handy

play00:47

graphic I made showing you guys the

play00:50

correlated

play00:51

assets so if you're bullish you want to

play00:54

trade the stronger asset if you're

play00:56

bearish you want to trade the weaker

play00:58

asset so I'm going to show you guys a

play01:00

few different ways of determining

play01:02

relative strength you can choose

play01:04

whichever no way is better than the

play01:06

other really just pick whatever you

play01:08

understand best and what you just tend

play01:10

to naturally gravitate towards so I'll

play01:13

be going over four different ways first

play01:16

one is Candlestick logic or CSL for

play01:19

short then we have smt stands for smart

play01:22

money technique then we got eurogbp and

play01:25

AUD nzd we can use those two currencies

play01:28

to determine relative strength and

play01:30

lastly my personal favorite is the

play01:32

currency Futures which I will go over

play01:35

towards the end of the

play01:37

video so let's begin with candlestick

play01:40

logic or CSL if you're trying to trade

play01:44

between two pairs with the same setup

play01:46

how can you pick the high probability

play01:48

pair for Longs we can simply look at

play01:52

Candle bodies and Wicks and no do we

play01:55

show respect or are we disrespecting

play01:59

important higher time frame levels but

play02:01

what does respect look like in the first

play02:03

place let's say we are bullish for

play02:06

example we can observe respect to a

play02:08

level when a candle presents a large

play02:10

Wick off of a key point of Interest or

play02:13

POI for short and a body closure above

play02:16

it so for example we have a fair Valley

play02:18

Gap and when a candle trades into it it

play02:22

paints a lower Wick and a body closes

play02:25

above that Gap that's a signal of strong

play02:28

respect or for example let's say we

play02:30

sweep a swing low in bullish order flow

play02:33

and we paint a large Wick below it and

play02:36

the candle body closes above the swing

play02:38

low so these wigs show that price failed

play02:41

to close and displace below a certain

play02:43

level so they show intention to push

play02:45

higher and a lack of intention to

play02:48

continue lower always remember this

play02:51

Wicks do the damage the bodies tell the

play02:54

story so now that we know what respect

play02:56

is what is disrespect let's again say we

play03:00

are bullish we can observe disrespect to

play03:03

a level when a candle body closes

play03:05

beneath a POI so for example we have a

play03:09

bullish fair value Gap a candle trades

play03:11

into it and closes below the fair value

play03:14

Gap indicating a disrespect of that

play03:17

level same goes for a swing low if we

play03:20

are having candle bodies close

play03:22

aggressively below it we are likely

play03:24

disrespecting That Swing Low and running

play03:26

it rather than sweeping it to then

play03:29

continue High

play03:30

so what do we do when we see two closely

play03:32

correlated assets with similar setups

play03:35

how do we choose a higher probability

play03:36

trade well we observe on the higher time

play03:39

frames which chart's price action is

play03:42

showing the best respect to PD arrays in

play03:46

line with our current order flow so

play03:48

let's look at some examples to visually

play03:50

help see what I'm talking about here so

play03:52

here we have CHF JPY on the left and CAD

play03:55

JPY on the right if we look at these

play03:58

weekly charts and our higher time frame

play04:01

points of interest on these weekly

play04:03

charts those would be first off this

play04:05

weekly fair value Gap right here and

play04:07

this weekly fair value Gap right here so

play04:10

remember what we learned about respect

play04:13

and disrespect respect is when we're

play04:15

showing large lower Wicks off a POI

play04:18

should be this weekly Gap and body

play04:20

closures above the fair Valley gap or at

play04:22

the very least high on it right we don't

play04:25

want to see deep closes down here or

play04:29

below the 50% level even which is the

play04:31

consequent encroachment that is what we

play04:33

call the midpoint of a fair value Gap

play04:36

whereas if you look at over here on CAD

play04:38

JPY we are showing more of a disrespect

play04:41

towards this weekly Fair Valley Gap

play04:43

right here with a smaller lower Wick and

play04:46

a full body closure below that Weekly

play04:49

Gap so what this indicates right here

play04:51

already on the weekly chart is CAD JPY

play04:55

is weaker than CHF JPY solely because

play04:58

the way we're respecting this weekly for

play05:00

Valley Gap we are closing below it here

play05:03

and we are showing a large rejection off

play05:06

of it with a high body closure on that

play05:09

Gap and then what we could also observe

play05:11

over here is large expansion to the

play05:14

upside creating a new weekly fair value

play05:16

Gap while over here we have no weekly

play05:19

fair value gaps created right and that

play05:21

is coming as a result of what we

play05:23

observed right here initially the fact

play05:25

that we respected this weekly Gap to a

play05:28

greater degree than this weekly gap

play05:30

which we disrespected so naturally our

play05:33

expectation here if we just move back in

play05:36

time off of this let's say this is

play05:39

current price action we would want to

play05:41

focus for weekly IRL to EO from this

play05:45

weekly Gap to this weekly swing high

play05:47

right here we want to focus on the left

play05:50

right here on chfjpy because it is

play05:52

showing the stronger respect to that

play05:55

Weekly array so this is what we want to

play05:57

focus on trades and we can remove CAD

play06:00

JPY from our watch lists so here we are

play06:02

on the daily chart of those same two

play06:04

assets we were just watching on the

play06:06

weekly chart we can very clearly see why

play06:09

CHF JPY was the better choice to Long

play06:13

right if we look at this daily F value

play06:15

Gap right here we saw a very shallow

play06:17

sting into this daily Gap whereas if we

play06:20

look at CAD we saw a very deep sting

play06:22

into that fair value Gap right and after

play06:24

this daily fair value Gap we started

play06:26

creating new daily fair value gaps to

play06:28

the upside displacing higher and

play06:30

respecting those gaps right here we see

play06:32

new Fair Valley Gap created respecting

play06:34

it and then pushing higher ultimately

play06:37

taking that Weekly external Range High

play06:39

whereas at the same time if we look at

play06:41

when we took that high we are now

play06:44

displacing lower and kind of in this

play06:46

chop right here on CAD JPY just overall

play06:49

not creating new daily fair value gaps

play06:51

out of this daily Gap right here and we

play06:53

knew this already way down here based on

play06:55

how we respected this weekly fair value

play06:58

Gap and disrespected this weekly fair

play07:01

value Gap just reading the candle bodies

play07:04

reading the candle wicks we could

play07:06

already come to a conclusion as to which

play07:08

is going to be the stronger pair and the

play07:10

higher probability Longs so one more

play07:13

example here we have Euro CHF on the

play07:15

left and we have GBP CHF on the right

play07:18

one thing I want to mention about CSL is

play07:21

that it's not only all about disrespect

play07:23

and respect candles you can also tell by

play07:26

the amount of displacement you can

play07:28

observe between two correlated assets as

play07:30

well as how close are we to relative

play07:32

lows between each other and relative

play07:35

pois so what I mean by that is well if

play07:38

we look at this displacement all the way

play07:39

down here we see that these per Valley

play07:41

gaps are sending price much lower

play07:43

relative to this low right here so if we

play07:45

compare where price is right now to this

play07:47

low we see that this is likely going to

play07:50

hit it first signaling more weakness

play07:52

compared to its counterpart right here

play07:54

as well as we are respecting this daily

play07:56

for Value Gap to a greater degree than

play07:58

we are over here where we are

play08:00

disrespecting it on gpp CHF with this

play08:03

candle close above and just overall not

play08:06

really respecting that Gap whereas if we

play08:09

look at Euro which has been weaker we

play08:11

are not closing above it we are showing

play08:13

Wicks and a lack of intention to

play08:15

continue pushing higher once we start

play08:17

trading above it and then as you can see

play08:20

this has been followed by large

play08:21

displacement lower and even going down

play08:24

to the 1 hour time frame you will see a

play08:26

1hour entry present itself over here

play08:29

with a 1H hour for Valley Gap displacing

play08:31

lower off of a daily array whereas you

play08:34

don't see that entry pattern formed on

play08:36

GBP as it is a stronger asset you don't

play08:38

even want to be looking at this for

play08:40

shorts you would be focusing on euroc

play08:42

CHF for shorts and right here is a very

play08:45

textbook entry off a daily array 1 hour

play08:48

fair value Gap displacing lower entry at

play08:51

the opening of that fair value Gap stop

play08:53

loss at the swing high that created that

play08:55

Gap and then you just Target a simple 2R

play08:59

and and this is a gorgeous gorgeous

play09:02

trade so now let's go over smt also

play09:05

known as smart money technique simply

play09:08

put it's a Divergence between swing

play09:10

highs or swing lows on two closely

play09:12

correlated Assets in other words a crack

play09:15

in correlation so naturally when looking

play09:18

at two closely correlated assets if we

play09:21

expect one to make a lower low we would

play09:23

expect the other to make a new low as

play09:25

well when one fails to do so we have smt

play09:30

I look for this specifically on the

play09:31

higher time frame charts at Key PD

play09:33

arrays so we're talking fair value gaps

play09:35

swing High swing lows previous month's

play09:37

highs and lows previous week's highs and

play09:39

lows and previous daily highs and lows

play09:41

to make it clear S&T is just a

play09:44

Confluence to a reversal it is not the

play09:47

entire basis for a trade idea your trade

play09:50

idea must stem from a higher time frame

play09:52

point of interest and if we happen to

play09:54

see smt then great that's awesome we can

play09:57

now use it to determine which CL closely

play09:59

correlated asset we want to trade this

play10:02

is how we find relative strength so what

play10:04

we want to do now is long or short the

play10:07

pair that has created the failure swing

play10:10

as it is the relatively stronger or

play10:11

weaker asset so if we're bullish we want

play10:14

to trade the stronger asset we want to

play10:16

trade the one that made the failure

play10:18

swings on the lows if we're bearish we

play10:20

want to trade the weaker asset and we

play10:22

want to short the one who had the

play10:24

failure swing on the highs so here we

play10:28

have Euro USD on the left we have GBP

play10:31

USD on the right we are short right here

play10:34

because we have daily context to the

play10:36

downside we have daily IRL to erl and

play10:40

daily IRL to erl right here now if you

play10:43

remember what we just learned about CSL

play10:47

just the candlesticks essentially how

play10:49

hard are we displacing compared to our

play10:52

counterpart well it's a very obvious

play10:54

choice here which is the higher

play10:56

probability shorts right so that's just

play10:59

just a note on that they all kind of

play11:01

just work within each other it's kind of

play11:03

like a cycle you're likely going to see

play11:05

smt here based on how aggressive this

play11:08

displacement is we might retrace into

play11:10

this Gap whereas since GBP right here is

play11:14

stronger we might even just take this

play11:16

high and then continue lower right so

play11:19

they all work within each other which is

play11:20

why I say just pick whatever you

play11:22

naturally gravitate towards so back to

play11:25

this we are on Euro so let's move ahead

play11:29

price and see what happens once we

play11:31

retrace into that gap on both of these

play11:33

pairs right so there's the Euro

play11:35

retracement and over here is that GBP

play11:37

retracement right we took the high right

play11:41

here so this High let's mark that out

play11:44

swept it compare it to Euro's High which

play11:47

is this same high right here we didn't

play11:50

take it so on Euro we have a failure

play11:53

swing right here whereas on GBP we have

play11:55

a new swing High formed so there is a

play11:58

Divergence on the swing highs now

play12:00

remember we are bearish because we

play12:01

already had a pre-existing trade idea

play12:03

right we're not going short here because

play12:06

of the S&T it's only a Confluence to

play12:08

lead us to which is the higher

play12:10

probability shorts in this scenario

play12:12

since this candle right here failed to

play12:15

take the high just showing overall

play12:16

weakness we want to trade the pair that

play12:18

presented the failure swing so Euro

play12:20

right here is going to be the higher

play12:22

probability shorts so let's just go to

play12:24

current price action and see how this

play12:26

ended up working out we see here we see

play12:29

very nice aggressive displacement right

play12:31

off of that daily Gap whereas on gu we

play12:34

did see some displacement but ultimately

play12:36

it's just not as aggressive and deep as

play12:39

we see right here on Euro right so

play12:42

that's just perfect example of using smt

play12:45

to determine the weaker pair and higher

play12:47

probability shorts so here we are on the

play12:49

4our chart and just to show an entry

play12:52

right here we have this 4our fair value

play12:53

Gap right here on EU we also had this

play12:55

4-Hour fair value gap on gu but remember

play12:58

we always want to short the weaker pair

play13:00

so your swing trade right here would go

play13:03

at that 4-Hour swing low you can put at

play13:05

the body highs right here and you can

play13:07

Target a 2R which would land around

play13:10

right there and if you want to hold

play13:12

Runners something that I do is you can

play13:15

scale 80% and then hold 20% for your

play13:18

Runners so you can scale 80% at 2 R and

play13:20

then have some Runners for this swing

play13:22

low right here or potentially even

play13:24

beyond that if you have a high

play13:26

confidence in this continuing lower but

play13:28

as you can see see compared to gu we are

play13:30

showing further displacement down below

play13:32

the swing low whereas on gu right here

play13:35

we are not showing more displacement

play13:37

lower and we are actually entering a

play13:39

weekly fair value Gap so a little area

play13:41

of resistance right here may cause an

play13:43

issue for continued shorts on gu whereas

play13:46

if we look at EU and go back up to the

play13:48

weekly chart what we'll notice is there

play13:51

is no area of resistance right here on

play13:54

EU see we don't have any weekly fair

play13:56

value Gap in the way whereas on gu we do

play13:58

have weekly fair value Gap right here so

play14:02

we have S&T on these previous week's

play14:03

highs here and ultimately this is why we

play14:06

are displacing much more aggressively on

play14:09

Euro than we are on

play14:11

gu so here's one last example and I

play14:14

think this is a really great one showing

play14:16

how we can use it for shorts and

play14:18

potentially upcoming Longs so if we look

play14:20

at Euro CHF on the left we see that this

play14:23

High did not sweep these highs whereas

play14:26

on GBP CHF on the right we did sweep

play14:29

these relative highs as seen on Euro

play14:32

right so right here we have some smt so

play14:36

if we are looking short for a potential

play14:38

external range liquidity move to

play14:40

internal range liquidity move like such

play14:43

ultimately drawing towards that monthly

play14:44

fair value Gap we want to focus on the

play14:46

weaker asset so we want to trade the one

play14:49

who made the failure swing which in this

play14:52

case was Euro CHF so from this monthly

play14:55

idea let's dive into the daily chart and

play14:57

see if we can find a daily PDR Too Short

play14:59

from and essentially this is where we'll

play15:01

find our daily Market maker models and

play15:04

what we'll see here is that ultimately

play15:06

Euro CHF was the weaker pair as a result

play15:09

of the S&T now remember how we went over

play15:12

CSL earlier in this video and I was

play15:14

showing how we can basically just

play15:16

eyeball this seeing that this is showing

play15:18

the more aggressive displacement already

play15:20

trading lower towards this low and this

play15:21

monthly Fair Valley Gap compared to gpp

play15:24

CHF which wasn't showing as an

play15:26

aggressive as a displacement this is why

play15:29

keep repeating that all of this stuff

play15:31

really bounces off of each other if this

play15:33

is weaker it's probably because there's

play15:35

smt or as we'll later find out it's

play15:38

because the euro currency future is

play15:39

weaker than the GBP currency future so

play15:42

it all works within each other which is

play15:44

why I say just pick the one that you

play15:45

just naturally tend to gravitate towards

play15:47

and enjoy seeing so we saw the S&T on

play15:50

the highs and understood that euro is

play15:52

weaker we want to look at this for

play15:53

shorts now if we go back to the monthly

play15:55

chart we have new context on this

play15:59

monthly sobody went from erl to IRL on

play16:01

the monthly now we can flip this and

play16:04

potentially start looking for Longs so

play16:06

think IRL to EO same thing over here IRL

play16:11

to EO but what are we seeing what are we

play16:13

seeing on the lows over here with this

play16:14

candles we're seeing smt right if we go

play16:17

to the daily chart now we'll see that

play16:20

price has now entered this monthly Gap

play16:22

whereas price has not entered this

play16:24

monthly Gap over here on GBP so we have

play16:27

smt potentially inside the higher time

play16:30

frame PD array which is that monthly

play16:32

fair value Gap meaning if we start to

play16:34

see this shift to the upside seeing

play16:36

daily fair value gaps display higher

play16:39

let's say something like this and we do

play16:42

that over here on GBP as well well we

play16:45

don't need price to come down into this

play16:46

monthly Gap to make this valid we're

play16:48

already showing intention to push higher

play16:50

and this is going to act as the stronger

play16:53

asset because of that smt where we have

play16:56

a Divergence on the lows we want a long

play16:59

the failure swing which would be gpp CHF

play17:03

so we would want to focus on this for

play17:04

Longs should we get our entry pattern

play17:07

which is simply a daily F value Gap

play17:08

displacing higher moving on to the third

play17:11

way we can determine relative strength

play17:13

is by using the pairs Euro GBP and AUD

play17:17

NCD so we can use EG for sure and AZ to

play17:22

gauge relative strength between all Euro

play17:24

GBP AUD and nzd currencies so simply

play17:28

said a bullish Euro GBP means Euro will

play17:32

act as the stronger currency over pound

play17:35

a bearish Euro GBP means Euro will act

play17:38

as the weaker currency and pound will

play17:41

act as the stronger currency you see the

play17:44

direction of the base currency which is

play17:46

the currency that's listed first in a

play17:48

Forex pair determines if that currency

play17:51

will be stronger or weaker relative to

play17:53

the quote currency which is the currency

play17:55

that's listed last in a Forex pair same

play17:59

thing goes for AUD nzd a bullish AUD nzd

play18:03

means AUD will act as the stronger

play18:06

currency over nzd a bearish AUD nzd

play18:10

means AUD will act as the weaker

play18:12

currency and nzd will act as the

play18:14

stronger currency so let's dive into

play18:17

some

play18:18

examples so here we are on the Euro GBP

play18:21

weekly chart as we can notice we've

play18:23

overall been bearish in bearish order

play18:25

flow respecting bearish pdas so

play18:28

naturally we can form the expectation

play18:31

that EU is going to be the weaker pair

play18:33

and gu is going to be the stronger pair

play18:35

we can see that same story being told on

play18:37

this daily chart with again bullish

play18:39

order flow off this weekly Gap just

play18:42

continuing to displace lower leading us

play18:44

to understand weak EU strong gu so again

play18:48

if we look at EU and gu we'll notice

play18:51

that because of our understanding that

play18:53

EU is going to be weaker and we can

play18:55

already frame a short idea for EU off of

play18:58

this daily context remember same thing

play19:00

for GU we know that EU is weaker because

play19:03

EG is weak so now we can choose the

play19:05

higher probability shorts which would be

play19:07

Euro and the low probability shorts

play19:10

would be on gu right here which is

play19:13

relatively stronger and if we zoom out

play19:15

even more to the weekly we'll see that

play19:17

because EG has been weak gu has been

play19:20

strong so we see a weekly for Value Gap

play19:22

right here where we don't see that on

play19:24

Euro just again showing us this is

play19:26

weaker and if you want to take it one

play19:28

step further fur going to the monthly

play19:29

chart we'll see that gu is holding a

play19:32

monthly fair value Gap right here

play19:34

respecting it with this large lower Wick

play19:36

and this body closure above it whereas

play19:39

on EU we also had a monthly fair value

play19:41

Gap but we are currently disrespecting

play19:43

it see right here with this body candle

play19:45

closure below the Gap and a smaller

play19:48

lower Wick compared to gu which again

play19:51

goes back to Candlestick logic where

play19:53

we're looking at disrespect and

play19:55

respective candles I keep repeating it

play19:57

this all works off of each other right

play20:00

we had smt which signaled okay euro is

play20:03

going to be weaker okay then we had EG

play20:06

signaling to us that euro is going to be

play20:08

the weaker pair and gu is going to be

play20:09

the stronger pair okay great so you see

play20:11

how all these things work off of each

play20:13

other the candlesticks the smt the EG

play20:17

and we'll go over an a example next but

play20:20

they all work off of each other so again

play20:22

just really pick the one that suits you

play20:24

best because you're going to come to the

play20:26

same conclusion using which concept so

play20:29

here we are on the AUD nzd weekly chart

play20:32

remember what we went over if we have a

play20:34

bullish a we have strong Australian

play20:37

dollar and weak New Zealand dollar if

play20:39

bearish we have a weak Australian dollar

play20:41

and strong New Zealand so over here

play20:45

let's analyze what happened and how we

play20:47

could have shifted our expectations for

play20:50

certain AUD Pairs and nzd Pairs and

play20:54

change our expectation in terms of

play20:56

relative strength right because at this

play20:58

point right now if we were to rewind

play21:01

right here we would see that a has been

play21:03

quite bullish meaning Australian pairs

play21:05

are going to be stronger and preferable

play21:07

for Longs but things change here right

play21:10

because we had a weekly fair value Gap

play21:12

with an overlapping old swing high so

play21:15

let's move along and see what happens

play21:17

and if we respect that Weekly gap which

play21:20

we already know it does not and we start

play21:22

closing beneath it and closing within

play21:24

this area of fair value so what's

play21:27

happening here is for fail to offer fair

play21:29

value while we're likely to go seek

play21:31

liquidity so we're starting to shift

play21:33

bearish here on AZ meaning there might

play21:36

be a change in relative strength now

play21:38

where you might see AUD pairs start to

play21:41

weaken and nzd pairs start to strengthen

play21:44

and you want to shift your expectation

play21:46

and start trading nzd pairs for Longs as

play21:49

those are going to act as the higher

play21:50

probability trades for bullish setups so

play21:53

we play along here we'll see that yes

play21:55

AUD nzd starts shifting bearishly

play21:58

creating weekly bearish for Value gaps

play22:00

which currently go to the daily chart

play22:03

again has established that daily order

play22:05

flow so we can observe that shift and

play22:07

relative strength right here where we

play22:09

have AJ with weekly iro to EO meaning we

play22:13

have

play22:13

context but on NJ we have that same iro

play22:17

to ero but currently seeing that price

play22:20

has not retraced into it showing

play22:22

relative strength here this is also smt

play22:24

which we showed in previous examples but

play22:27

we can also just remember use AZ

play22:30

understanding that AZ is weaker now

play22:33

meaning nzd pairs in the base currency

play22:36

are going to act as the stronger asset

play22:39

so if we want to be longing we would be

play22:41

looking over here moving down into the

play22:44

daily we'll see how that shift occurred

play22:46

remember we were very strong on AUD

play22:49

pairs until we had that shift on the

play22:50

weekly chart to the downside where we

play22:52

failed to offer fair value so if we look

play22:54

at this displacement all the way here

play22:56

you'll see that we retraced not as deep

play22:59

as we retraced on NJ but then we had

play23:02

that shift and NJ quickly caught up and

play23:04

overtook AJ as the stronger pair

play23:07

eventually taking this external Range

play23:09

High much before AJ did well AJ hasn't

play23:12

even taken that high yet and even

play23:14

displacing above it and continuing to

play23:16

displace above forming more and more

play23:19

daily for Value gaps which right here

play23:21

potentially we got daily IRL to the erl

play23:24

to the upside just continued bullishness

play23:27

on and J as it has been the stronger

play23:30

asset because a has been just so

play23:34

weak now lastly my personal favorite

play23:37

currency Futures if you've stuck around

play23:40

until the end I'm about to reward you

play23:42

because this right here is real sauce

play23:44

that will absolutely Skyrocket your win

play23:47

rate before I explain how to use

play23:49

currency Futures though let's list them

play23:51

all here so you can add them to your

play23:53

watch list and start seeing this play

play23:54

out for yourself so we have 6 E1

play23:57

exclamation point which is the Euro

play24:00

Futures followed by 6B which is British

play24:02

pound Futures 6A Australian dollar

play24:05

Futures 6n New Zealand dollar Futures 6

play24:08

C Canadian dollar Futures 6s Swiss frank

play24:12

Futures and 6j Japanese Yen Futures

play24:16

these are the majors as we can see this

play24:19

letter right here is the first letter of

play24:22

the currency we're working

play24:24

with we can use currency Futures to

play24:27

determine which pair is the one that's

play24:29

most likely to move so basically we are

play24:32

using these features to identify the

play24:34

weaker and stronger currencies and then

play24:37

pairing them we want to pair a strong

play24:40

currency with a weak currency for

play24:43

example right here we have a very weak

play24:45

Japanese Yen and we have clear weekly

play24:47

context to the downside this is great

play24:49

because now we have a clear draw in

play24:51

liquidity and we are working with an

play24:53

extremely weak pair so now what we want

play24:56

to do is pair this with a strong

play24:58

currency so we want to go through this

play25:01

list pair it with Yen giving us our

play25:03

cross pair and we want to trade that

play25:05

expecting the highest probability long

play25:08

because remember when we have a bearish

play25:10

Yen you can expect any XXX JPY pair to

play25:13

be bullish so let's look at the daily

play25:16

real quick also very bearish showing

play25:18

daily bearish order flow and right here

play25:21

we're just expecting price to continue

play25:24

drawing towards this external range

play25:25

liquidity so let's go through this list

play25:27

real quick and determine which is the

play25:30

strongest pair so if we look at Euro we

play25:33

aren't very strong at all displacing

play25:35

down we look at GBP we will see that we

play25:39

are much stronger than Euro because take

play25:40

a look at this weekly Fair Valley Gap

play25:42

right here and also take a look at this

play25:44

monthly fair value gap which we are

play25:45

holding and expanding higher out of

play25:48

where if we look at Euro like we showed

play25:50

in previous examples we're not really

play25:52

respecting this monthly Gap right here

play25:54

we're disrespecting closing below it so

play25:56

overall Euro has been weak for a while

play25:59

compared to GBP so we want to be

play26:01

focusing also on GBP in this case so at

play26:05

the moment GBP is our strongest pair so

play26:09

let's keep this on the watch list let me

play26:11

just start fresh here this will be our

play26:13

strongest pair at the moment so let's

play26:16

continue on down 6A consolidating right

play26:19

here not as strong as GBP overall

play26:22

consolidation on this weekly chart as

play26:24

well we don't really have a weekly fair

play26:26

value Gap there either showing

play26:28

aggressive displacement to the upside

play26:29

like we see on the pound right here so

play26:33

GBP Still Remains our strongest currency

play26:37

let's go to 6n actually looking stronger

play26:40

than GBP so we see that we have this

play26:42

weekly Gap and we haven't traded into it

play26:44

whereas on the pound we did showing we

play26:48

have more strength on New Zealand right

play26:50

here just look at the daily real quick

play26:53

also again we haven't taken this low

play26:55

compared to GBP where we did take this

play26:57

low into that Gap so at the moment New

play27:00

Zealand is our strongest currency so

play27:03

let's keep that on watch so let's mark

play27:06

that up like that let's go to Canadian

play27:08

dollar not strong at all quite weak

play27:11

actually expecting lower prices here on

play27:14

a weekly basis also just extremely

play27:16

bearish no signs of bullish orderflow so

play27:19

what you never want to do is pair a weak

play27:21

currency with another weak currency

play27:24

which would be Cad and Yen that would

play27:25

lead to very unfavorable nasty price PR

play27:28

action you want to avoid so never pair a

play27:31

weak and a weak currency together moving

play27:34

along we have CHF right here which has

play27:37

been quite strong actually so I'm going

play27:39

to mark that green and let's compare

play27:41

that again to New Zealand which has also

play27:44

been quite strong so at the moment we

play27:47

are seeing the most strength on CHF just

play27:50

based on the displacement leg higher

play27:52

right here and respect to this daily Gap

play27:54

let's look at 6n right here which we

play27:56

don't see that huge display leg higher

play27:59

like we saw on CHF so ultimately at the

play28:03

moment I will expect CHF JPY to be the

play28:06

strongest and highest probability Longs

play28:09

so let's take a look at that cross pair

play28:11

and what we'll see is it indeed has been

play28:14

the strongest cross pair as you will see

play28:17

once we go through these JPY pairs

play28:19

showing the highest probability price

play28:21

action right here to the upside forming

play28:24

a potential new daily fair value Gap

play28:26

going into next week so let's look at

play28:28

the rest and I'll show you why we want

play28:30

to focus on the strongest and weakest

play28:32

currencies and pair them together

play28:34

because if we look at

play28:35

nzdjpy were not as strong as CHF JPY

play28:39

because CHF was the stronger pair so

play28:41

again Focus would be there we look at

play28:44

GBP JPY even weaker right this is our

play28:47

third strongest if we look at AUD JPY

play28:50

even weaker we haven't even taking this

play28:52

external Range High and we are

play28:53

consolidating just like AUD was

play28:56

consolidating on its Futures current

play28:58

cury chart CAD JPY remember CAD was also

play29:02

very weak we don't want to pair a weak

play29:05

currency and a weak currency because

play29:08

then you get very disgusting price

play29:10

action like this that you just want to

play29:12

sit out and then Euro JPY which was also

play29:16

weak the euro currency was also weak we

play29:18

see very unfavorable price action

play29:21

because you pair a weak currency and a

play29:23

weak currency and you get very nasty

play29:26

stuff like this you just want to void so

play29:29

always remember this you want to pair a

play29:32

strong currency with a weak currency and

play29:34

the way you determine relative strength

play29:37

is by always trading the cross pair that

play29:40

has the strongest Futures currency so

play29:43

simply put if you want to look for a

play29:46

high probability cross pair to trade

play29:49

which would be any of these right here

play29:51

in this long list all you'd have to do

play29:54

really is go through the currency

play29:55

Futures First Look for for the weakest

play29:58

pair then look for the strongest pair

play30:02

pair them up and then you have your

play30:04

highest probability cross pair to trade

play30:06

for that week if this all is sounding a

play30:08

bit confusing because I know it could be

play30:11

a bit tough to understand on the first

play30:12

listen if you just rewind and watch it

play30:15

slowly take some notes watch it again

play30:18

and again I promise it'll start to click

play30:21

this isn't something I think you guys

play30:23

should skip over I really do think that

play30:26

this is a gem of information right here

play30:29

and we 100% increase your win rates

play30:33

because just by trading the strongest

play30:36

and weakest currency You Are by default

play30:38

trading the highest probability cross

play30:40

pair for that week right so you're

play30:42

filtering out so much low probability

play30:44

price action by doing this you're going

play30:47

to be trading at the pair to be at for

play30:50

that week right you're less likely to be

play30:53

caught in unfavorable price action and

play30:56

consolidations and likely to see very

play30:59

nice fluid price movement just by

play31:02

following these steps I have outlined

play31:04

right here so that pretty much wraps

play31:07

this up thank you guys so much for

play31:09

tuning in if you found this insightful

play31:12

all I ask is you share with a friend and

play31:15

hit the like And subscribe button I

play31:17

would appreciate that so much thank you

play31:20

and if you're looking to get funded

play31:21

there are some really nice discounts in

play31:23

the description click those links use

play31:26

code pickle and using what you learned

play31:28

today I hope you get one step closer to

play31:32

getting funded and receiving those

play31:33

payouts and lastly go ahead and join my

play31:36

free Discord I'm in there every single

play31:39

day dropping outlooks doing live weekly

play31:41

forecasts every Sunday and just

play31:43

interacting with the community and

play31:45

answering a bunch of your guys questions

play31:47

so I'll see you there and have a great

play31:49

one guys peace out

play31:54

[Music]

play31:57

what

play32:03

[Music]

Rate This

5.0 / 5 (0 votes)

関連タグ
相対強度トレード戦略通貨取引市場分析価格行動リスク管理トレードセットアップ関連資産取引手法トレーディング