FEU Public Intellectual Lecture Series | Redentor Constantino | Part 1
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the urgency of climate change, emphasizing its anthropogenic causes and the dire consequences of inaction. It highlights the scientific consensus on human influence, the importance of citizen involvement in driving government action, and the irreversible impacts of rising CO2 levels and global temperatures. The 'hockey stick' graph illustrates the unprecedented temperature rise, while melting ice and rising sea levels threaten economies and ecosystems. The script calls for interdisciplinary integration and timely action for the sake of future generations.
Takeaways
- 🌡️ Climate change is real and has been happening for a long time, with temperatures steadily increasing.
- 🔬 The scientific consensus is strong, with at least 97% of the scientific community agreeing that human activities are causing climate change.
- 🌱 The impact of humans on the environment is significant and can be either positive or negative, depending on our actions.
- 🗳️ Citizens play a crucial role in influencing government action on climate change by voicing their concerns and needs.
- ⏳ Time is running out to address climate change effectively, with the urgency to act increasing with each passing day.
- 🌐 Specialization is important, but an interdisciplinary approach is necessary to be better citizens and to address complex issues like climate change.
- 📊 The 'hockey stick' graph illustrates a significant and rapid increase in global temperatures in recent history, correlating with increased CO2 emissions.
- 🌊 Sea levels are rising due to climate change, with glaciers melting and adding to ocean volumes, which is an irreversible process.
- 🏞️ Climate change threatens economies that rely on predictable weather patterns and seasons, potentially leading to economic collapse.
- 🌍 The Earth's optimal climate settings are being disrupted by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, akin to the extreme conditions on Venus and Mars.
- 🐾 Many species are affected by climate change, with some unable to adapt quickly enough, leading to significant shifts in ecosystems and biodiversity.
Q & A
What is the main premise of the discussion on climate change presented in the script?
-The main premise is that climate change is real and happening due to human activities, and it has been a concern for a long time, not just a recent issue.
What does 'anthropogenic influence' refer to in the context of climate change?
-It refers to the impact humans have on their surroundings, including the environment, which in the case of climate change, is causing global temperatures to rise.
According to the script, what percentage of the scientific community believes in the reality of human-induced climate change?
-At least 97% of the scientific community worldwide acknowledges that climate change is real and caused by human interference with the planet's climate system.
What is the significance of the 'hockey stick' graph in the context of climate change?
-The 'hockey stick' graph illustrates a significant increase in global temperatures over time, particularly in recent decades, which corresponds with the rise in human-induced CO2 emissions.
Why is the melting of glaciers and ice shelves a concern according to the script?
-The melting of glaciers and ice shelves contributes to rising sea levels, which can lead to the inundation of coastal cities and island nations, as well as disrupt freshwater supplies for millions of people.
What is the 'optimal setting' referred to when discussing Earth's climate?
-The 'optimal setting' refers to Earth's climate conditions that are just right to support life, which are currently being disrupted by human-induced climate change.
How does the script describe the difference between climate and weather?
-Weather is described as the totality of all atmospheric phenomena, while climate is the average weather over time. Changing the climate disrupts the predictability of weather patterns, which can have severe economic impacts.
What is the 'representative concentration pathways (RCPs)' mentioned in the script?
-RCPs are scenarios projected by scientists to estimate potential climate change outcomes based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations.
What does the script suggest about the ability of organisms to adapt to rapid climate change?
-The script suggests that many organisms are moving to higher altitudes and latitudes to escape warming temperatures, but some cannot move quickly enough or find suitable habitats, which can lead to species decline or extinction.
Why is the rapid warming of the Arctic particularly concerning according to the script?
-Rapid Arctic warming is concerning because it is causing more extreme weather conditions elsewhere, such as intense blizzards and typhoons, and is altering global climate patterns.
What is the script's perspective on the urgency of addressing climate change?
-The script emphasizes the urgency of addressing climate change, stating that it's not just about fixing the problem, but doing so in time to prevent irreversible damage and ensure a livable future for coming generations.
Outlines
🌡️ Climate Change and Human Impact
The first paragraph discusses the undeniable reality of climate change and its anthropogenic origins. It emphasizes that the world's temperatures have been rising for some time, and the scientific consensus supports the idea that human activities are the primary cause. The speaker stresses the urgency of government action, driven by citizen involvement, to mitigate the worsening effects of climate change. The paragraph also touches on the importance of interdisciplinary understanding and the long-term implications of our current actions, which will affect future generations more than our own.
🌍 Understanding Climate vs. Weather and Global Impact
This paragraph delves into the distinction between climate and weather, explaining how human activities are altering average weather patterns, which in turn can disrupt economies that rely on predictable seasonal changes. The speaker uses the example of the 'hockey stick' graph to illustrate the sharp increase in global temperatures over the past century, correlating with the rise in CO2 emissions. The paragraph also highlights the critical levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, emphasizing the need to reduce these levels to avert catastrophic consequences.
🧊 Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels
The third paragraph focuses on the tangible effects of climate change, such as the melting of glaciers and the subsequent impact on freshwater resources for hundreds of millions of people. It discusses the melting of Antarctic ice shelves and the acceleration of sea-level rise, which poses a threat to coastal cities and island nations. The speaker also connects rapid Arctic warming to extreme weather events, such as intense blizzards and typhoons, and underscores the irreversible nature of some climate change impacts.
🌿 Species Displacement and Future Climate Projections
The final paragraph addresses the challenges faced by species as they attempt to adapt to rapidly changing climates by moving to cooler areas or higher altitudes. It presents scenarios of potential warming outcomes, known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the drastic implications of a 'business-as-usual' approach, which could lead to a temperature increase of up to 4.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The speaker warns of the severe consequences for ecosystems and the importance of taking action to prevent such a scenario.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Climate Change
💡Anthropogenic Influence
💡Greenhouse Gases
💡Hockey Stick Graph
💡CO2 Emissions
💡Sea Level Rise
💡Ice Melt
💡Specialization
💡Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
💡Climate Refugees
💡Emissions
Highlights
Climate change is a scientifically proven phenomenon with temperatures warming for a considerable time.
The cause of climate change is anthropogenic, meaning human activities are influencing the Earth's climate system.
97% of the scientific community globally agrees that human interference is causing climate change.
Citizen involvement is crucial for governments to take action against climate change.
Climate change is not just harmful; it's a worsening crisis that requires immediate action.
The urgency of addressing climate change is about ensuring the viability of future societies.
Specialization is important, but an integrated approach across disciplines is necessary for effective climate action.
The impacts of today's emissions will be felt in 20 to 30 years, affecting future generations more than the present.
The sun's radiation is trapped by excessive greenhouse gases, preventing heat from dissipating.
Climate change disrupts average weather patterns, threatening economies that rely on predictable seasons.
The 'hockey stick' graph illustrates a significant rise in global temperatures since the industrial period.
CO2 emissions have been directly correlated with the increase in global temperatures.
The safe level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 350 ppm, far below the current levels.
Melting ice sheets and glaciers contribute to rising sea levels and threaten freshwater resources.
Rising sea levels are irreversible, posing an existential threat to island nations and coastal cities.
Arctic warming is causing more extreme weather conditions, including intense blizzards and typhoons.
Species are moving to adapt to climate change, but many cannot keep pace with the rapid environmental shifts.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) outline potential climate futures based on varying levels of greenhouse gas emissions.
If no action is taken, the baseline temperature increase could reach 4.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
Transcripts
[Music]
our discussion is
very simple it starts from very five
very basic premises no
number one climate change the world
warming temperatures it's happening it's
been warming for a long while
climate science is not something new
that came up in the last decade
many people have pointed to a problem
that
very early said we're going to have a
crisis soon unless we wake up
and change the way that our economies
are run
the way that we live as societies number
two
why is it warming why is there climate
change it's because of us
it's a scientific world we call it
anthropogenic influence
influence of humans well it's a very
important term
whether you're in education you know or
the arts or sciences
um our impact on our surroundings
on our classmates on our families on our
environment
is always going to be important whether
these impacts will be negative or
positive
you know it's always really up to us are
we sure
that it's really anthropogenically
related
making allowance among yes climate
science is saying yes 97 at least
of the scientific community worldwide
all state that
climate change is real it's because of
human interference with the planet's
climate system
and it's going to get worse until and
unless
governments act very soon governments
don't act on their own
citizens tell governments what they need
to do
if you don't get involved nothing pretty
much happens
yeah is it bad it's really bad
and it's not just bad it's going to get
worse
can we fix it yes but we have very
little time
and that's why there's a big question
mark the question is not whether we can
fix it
it's whether we can fix it in time and
whether we can
do enough to ensure that
in the next few decades over the next
few decades
we will still be strong enough to remake
the societies that we're in
probably one of the more important
points which is strange to say
in a setting that's in an academic
institution is that specialization is
very important
that's what you're all trained to do but
my message also to you is that
it is also not very important in fact
it is important but it is not enough
and if you think too much and dive too
much
into specialization you're going to
disable
your ability to be better citizens
and to be better at whatever you do i'm
just saying specialization is very
important
but it's only as important as you see
the other fields
and as you see the other disciplines and
the way
you deliberately try to integrate other
disciplines into your work
and whatever that governments do they do
and citizens
act on will result not in a better
future for them
but in a future that may be better for
their children
this is because all the impacts that we
see today
that we have felt today are impacts
that are a result of
emissions decades ago it means
solutions that we push for in terms of
energy or infrastructure
transport or forests that are
established
tomorrow it will be felt only
in 20 years or 30 years
it means you are fighting not
necessarily for your future
only it's a future that
is related more to your kids or the ones
that will come after you
why is the climate crisis happening um
there's several ways
of explaining now in the image that you
see in front of you
you know that's one way of looking at it
the sun enters
radiation from the sun no solar
radiation enters
our planetary system but because there's
too much greenhouse gases
no it is unable to go out and dissipate
the more greenhouse gases that are
emitted
the less able that we can dissipate the
radiation that comes in from the sun
you can think of it in another way what
is the difference between climate
and weather yeah weather is the totality
of
all atmospheric phenomena climate is
average weather
what we're doing is we're changing
average weather
and if you consider the fact that entire
economies around the world
depend on average weather
because they depend on seasons we know
when it's dry season or autumn or spring
or winter or rainy season
if we're changing average weather we're
putting at risk
entire economies that rely on
predictability that's why climate change
is dangerous because we are
creating the possibility of
incremental or large-scale collapse
in the way that economies are run around
the world think of it in another way as
well
venus has too much greenhouse cover
that's right it's too hot nothing lives
in venus
mars has too little that's why it's too
cold
earth is optimal is an optimal setting
has enough heat enough of the setting
that allows
life to flourish but where
messing around with the settings that's
what climate change is
in a nutshell and the effects
are not entirely pleasant what are the
problems
this graph it's called the hockey stick
graph
you'll see that from this point to here
it's almost like level but then it goes
straight up
like a hockey stick this
is time
200 000 ad
1200 and current times here
this is the record of temperature
increases over time from different
studies
this hockey stick graph is was made by a
scientist called michael mann
in 1998. the reason why i'm showing this
and the other graphs that will follow is
to demonstrate how real and how serious
the impact of humans are on the earth's
climate
this is in 1998 this
hockey stick has become more acute
because
the end here has just continued to rise
up
so from 200 to 1000
to the year 2000s temperature has just
simply gone up
unfortunately it corresponds also with
the co2 emissions carbon dioxide
emissions
that have been recorded along with other
gases but right now co2 is the most
important for
our discussion this
is a graph that shows the readings from
several i score samples and again it
shows
from co2 measurements over time
from the taylor dome i score lowdom ice
core
and the mauna loa observatory readings
again magnetic industrial period
recordings went up almost alongside
temperature readings again another graph
that shows
similar things but measuring
parts per million of co2 in the
atmosphere
and this is a recording made in 2015
437.37 parts per million
italian period humans
homo sapiens around here
and this is where we are today most
recent april 2
2018 and the recording is very similar
and we're now at 409.43 ppm
scientific um common scientific
understanding
is that the safe level is at 350 ppm
in april 2 the recording was at 409.
the challenge is how to bring this back
to a safe level
and right now the challenge is not to
allow it to
go any higher how dangerous is it
um it's pretty dangerous it's pretty
bad um for many communities it's
catastrophic
this graph shows the total global sea
ice area
measurements no dating from 1978
up to 2016. recent headline that shows
the melting in the greenland glaciers
the extent has been unprecedented
compared to the last four centuries last
400 years
consistent with the graph that i earlier
showed you
lasers are retreating and in areas that
rely
on glaciers or fresh water this is
particularly frightening
hundreds of millions of people in south
asia
rely on the glaciers for their
freshwater needs
as the glaciers retreat
so will their freshwater
provisions dry up and if those
provisions dry up
they will move and find other sources if
they can find any
which means potentially triggering more
conflicts in south asia
which is india pakistan
bangladesh sri lanka you know you name
it
antarctic ice shelves and measurement
nila
this one talks about melting that's
happening below
that's not visible but it's rapidly
melting below
which means that it is also increasing
the warming of seas around it
as water melts and increases temperature
of seas around the glaciers
and it increases as a consequence
sea levels
sea levels are rising because of climate
change
for two reasons one because glaciers
are not ice that float on water but sit
on masses of land
and once they once they melt they add to
the volume of water
that they merge with the second probably
even more important reason at risk
are in the next two decades
millions hundreds of millions of people
who live in coastal
cities such as manila
such as those in miami and other places
in the next two decades what you see is
the coast
will probably be part of the sea
and there are a lot of climate change
impacts that
can be reversed are irreversible
sea level rise sea levels rising
is something that you cannot reverse
because it will take millennia before
they go back to normal
and return to their previous levels
islands will disappear island nation
states like the marshall islands or fiji
are at risk not simply of being flooded
but of being obliterated entirely
because if your island nation goes
underwater
your culture disappears as well
this is also what happens no this is
most recent
in the u.s rapid arctic warming
is creating havoc in other weather
systems
climatic systems elsewhere resulting in
more
extreme winter conditions
more extreme cold freezing
blizzards elsewhere as the arctic worms
rapidly so arctic warming
creating more intense blizzards
warming seas creating more intense
typhoons
yolanda was not
necessarily because of climate change
but the intensity increased because
warm seas serve as fuel
for storms adding to the wind speed
and intensity of the typhoon okay
you have to distinguish between natural
weather
variability and climate change induced
impacts very bad particularly
for humans but terrible for
other species this slide i'd like you to
delve on
because it talks about speed scale and
timeline
and the inability of many organisms
to flee from
the climate crisis there are different
scenarios that scientists have projected
in terms of how much warming we can
allow or we will allow and what the
impacts might be
so they call it representative
concentration pathways rcts there's one
that talks about
rcps that a pathway that is normal to
here to where we are right now another
that
looks at you know a less than great
scenario another
that looks at an even more scenario and
the other is
rcp 8.5 which is a runaway climate
change
last studies that came out showed that
on average studying about 2000 species
organisms were moving at least
one meter uphill to flea warming
temperatures
so market they've also been measured
on average to have moved 17 kilometers
farther away from the equator
where it's warmest
some cannot move as quickly as others
some can but only to the extent that
their habitats will allow them because
they are all
searching for the average
climate that they had been born into
this is a graph that just shows this is
1990 this is 2100.
eto tayo so far this black line
this is the temperature the emissions
level
if we don't do anything if it's business
as usual
if no change no action is taken globally
including on the part of the philippines
because indeed
a baseline and temperature increase
would be
up to 4.8 degrees
above pre-industrial levels
and as i said earlier 2 degrees is
already very dangerous
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