🚨 BTC & ETH: ADD TO LONG HERE??? OR FLIP SHORT???
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the trader discusses a challenging market situation where profits have dropped to $100,000. Despite market dips influenced by the FOMC and CPI, they remain optimistic, highlighting the potential of Bitcoin and an upcoming Ethereum ETF launch. They emphasize the importance of long-term trading and seize the opportunity to add to their long position, considering any current correction as a chance for wealth creation. The video also promotes a 42% discount on trading fees for new Bit account sign-ups.
Takeaways
- 📉 The speaker's profit has dropped to $100,000 and they plan to share their trading strategy by the end of the video.
- 💼 The speaker mentions market dumps due to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the release of CPI data, affecting ETFs.
- 🔗 They promote a link for Bybit, offering a 42% discount on trading fees for new accounts with deposits over $100,000.
- 📈 The core CPI has decreased, which is seen as positive, and the FOMC has maintained the interest rate with only one cut projected for the year.
- 📊 Bitcoin's price initially spiked due to better-than-expected CPI news but later dropped due to FOMC outcomes and concerns about high rates.
- 🏦 The world's largest bank, ICBC, recognizes Bitcoin as a solution to gold's issues with divisibility and portability.
- 📅 The speaker anticipates the launch of an Ethereum ETF, which could significantly impact Ethereum's price due to its smaller market size compared to Bitcoin.
- 📉 The speaker is considering going short on their trade but emphasizes the importance of staying informed about the ETF launch.
- 📊 The speaker provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin's chart, mentioning a potential drop to $65,000 and a main support level at $57,000.
- 🤔 They discuss the possibility of a further drop in the market but view any correction as a 'generational wealth creation opportunity'.
- 💰 The speaker has added to their long trade on Ethereum, seeing the current situation as a chance to build their position further.
Q & A
What is the current profit mentioned in the video script?
-The current profit mentioned in the video script is $100,000.
What is the significance of the FOMC meeting and CPI in the context of the script?
-The FOMC meeting and CPI are significant because they influenced market movements, causing some ETFs to be dumped ahead of these events, which in turn affected the speaker's trading decisions.
What is the 'Shield' mentioned in the context of trading on Bybit?
-The 'Shield' refers to a discount on trading fees offered by Bybit. If a user deposits more than $100,000, they can get a 42% discount on trading fees using the speaker's referral link.
What is the potential impact of the ICBC's recognition of Bitcoin on the market?
-The recognition of Bitcoin by ICBC, the world's largest bank, could potentially boost Bitcoin's value and market perception, as it suggests that Bitcoin solves some of the problems associated with gold, such as divisibility and portability.
What is the upcoming event that the speaker is anticipating in relation to Ethereum?
-The speaker is anticipating the launch of an Ethereum ETF, which is expected to increase demand and potentially the price of Ethereum.
What is the current stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) as per the speaker's interpretation of the FOMC meeting?
-According to the speaker, the Fed maintained a hawkish stance by keeping interest rates steady and projecting just one cut this year, which is business as usual and nothing new.
What is the speaker's strategy regarding their Ethereum trade in light of the current market conditions?
-The speaker has added to their long trade on Ethereum, considering the current market conditions, the upcoming ETF launch, and the recognition of Bitcoin by ICBC, viewing any correction as a wealth creation opportunity.
What is the speaker's view on the potential downside of their Ethereum trade?
-The speaker believes that the downside is limited, suggesting that the risk is manageable and that the potential for upward movement is significant.
What is the significance of the 'Event Horizon' mentioned in the script?
-The 'Event Horizon' seems to be a significant upcoming event or product release that the speaker is promoting, encouraging viewers to stay tuned for details on Twitter.
What is the speaker's final message to the viewers?
-The speaker's final message is to stay smart, stay rich, and take advantage of the 42% discount on trading commissions on Bybit using their referral link.
Outlines
📉 Market Volatility and Trading Strategy Amidst FOMC and CPI Reports
The speaker discusses the current state of their trading, noting a significant drop in profit to $100,000 due to market dumps influenced by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. They mention an AMA session and a Twitter event, then focus on the core CPI which has decreased slightly, aligning with market expectations. Despite the Fed's hawkish stance, the speaker sees the market as stable. They highlight the potential impact of the world's largest bank, ICBC, recognizing Bitcoin over gold and the upcoming Ethereum ETF launch, which could significantly influence the market. The speaker emphasizes the importance of staying informed and prepared for these events, suggesting that any market dip could be an opportunity for wealth creation.
📈 Analyzing Market Support Levels and Long-Term Trading Insights
The speaker provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin's and Ethereum's charts, noting the current grim outlook with Bitcoin's price dropping below a previous support level. They predict a potential target of $65,000 for Bitcoin and emphasize the importance of the $57,000 support level. For Ethereum, they identify a critical support level at $3,000, suggesting that any significant drop below this point would be unexpected unless the ETF launch is a failure. The speaker has added to their long trade at the current price levels, viewing any further correction as a 'generational wealth creation opportunity'. They express confidence in the long-term upward direction of the market, indicating a willingness to increase their position if the market dips further. The speaker concludes with a reminder to manage risk and stay informed about upcoming events, offering a discount link for trading fees on Bybit.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Profit
💡Traders
💡FOMC
💡CPI
💡ETFs
💡Divisibility
💡Inconvenience
💡Bybit
💡M2 Money Supply
💡Elections
💡Asymmetrical Bet
Highlights
Current profit down to $100,000 with a planned trade reveal at the video's end.
Market downturn attributed to FOMC and CPI, affecting ETFs pre-announcement.
A small shield in trading due to using Bybit with potential discounts for large deposits.
Core CPI forecast lower than previous, indicating a positive trend.
Unemployment not spiking, aligning with expectations post-FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin's price reaction to CPI news, with an initial spike followed by a dump.
ICBC recognizing Bitcoin as superior to gold in terms of divisibility and portability.
Anticipation for Ethereum ETF launch and its potential impact on the market.
Ethereum's market size being three times smaller than Bitcoin, implying significant price impact from ETF inflows.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin's chart, indicating a grim outlook with a target of $65,000.
Importance of the $57k support level for Bitcoin, suggesting a potential retest.
Ethereum's current position at a crucial support level with expectations of an upward move.
Addition to a long trade at a perceived generational wealth creation opportunity.
M2 money supply and upcoming elections as factors influencing the market direction.
Asymmetrical betting strategy explained, advocating for adding to long positions on dips.
Personal trade update, moving from a $1.7 million to a $2 million position with current profits.
Advice on trading Bitcoin with proper risk management and using the provided link for Bybit discount.
Upcoming Event Horizon release teased on Twitter for early adopter benefits.
Transcripts
okay this is not looking that good so we
are down to only
$100,000 profit and I'm going to show
you what I'm going to be doing with this
trade at the end of the video so make
sure to stick around till the end so
let's first go through as to what is
happening and it's not looking that's
very beautiful but as a Traders we
always need to stay strong we always
need to remember as to what we're here
for we're here long term so therefore
let's have a look first things first
we're seeing some dumps in the TFS right
now happening and the reason for this is
very simple guys because of the fomc
that happened yesterday and also because
of CPI so some of the ETFs got dumped
ahead of the CPI and the FC meeting and
also about the event horizon guys if
you're not
participating link something just
dropped we did an AMA session and
something that just dropped also on
Twitter check it out anyway let's move
on uh no Shields actually maybe a small
Shield because as you can see I'm
trading over on bybit and uh with Max
link down description of this video to
buybit you can actually if you're a
whale and you're trading with more than
100,000 and if you deposit more than
100,000 using my link down description
this video you will get a
42% discount on trading fees so you
could be saving yourself thousands of
dollars only if you use my link to sign
up so you can also create a new account
and just go through kyc using some other
form of identification and get a 42%
discount on fees and certainly you can
also claim up to $330,000 in initial
deposit bonuses just generally speaking
and just general bonuses for general
public as well so anyway uh let's move
on and what I want you to see here right
now is what is happening with the
inflation so that's a piece of the
puzzle that will influence my decision
and what I'm doing with my ethereum
trade right now so first and foremost if
we going to take a look at the core CPI
you're going to see that the forecast
the previous was 3.6 the forecast was
3.5 and it came in at 3. four so
actually we're steadily moving down
which is quite nice and also if we're
going to take a look at this one right
here which is basically the main one I
suppose that's what the main one is
called here so it was the previous was
3.4 the expectation was 3.4 and the
actual came in at 3.3 and the
unemployment isn't spiking yet so
everything is looking
okayish and that's what a lot of people
were actually expecting and that was the
FC meeting um which happened yesterday
and fomc keeps rat steady and projects
projects just one cut this year so
therefore Fed was kind of hawkish but it
Fed was as usual power was as usual
nothing new in my opinion the price of
Bitcoin has spiked a bit on the news of
CPI that CPI came out a bit better than
expected but then it actually dumped
just now again also because of the FC
and the possibility of the rates being
too high for too long and blah blah blah
so but for now it is looking quite okay
nothing new in my opinion and what
matters here is let me show you two
things that actually influence my
decision and what I'm doing with my
ethereum trade that is this is number
one the world's largest bank ICBC says
that Bitcoin solves Gold's problem of
divisibility and inconvenience to carry
so the largest bank the largest bank in
the world just recognized bit coin and
said that it's better than
gold so and we are currently standing
possibly at this time of this boring
somewh so side some side movish activity
I'm going to move too short in just a
second but this is to be expected and
those who are just dropping out now are
probably not deserving to get any
rewards so let me show you here this is
what we need to wait for in the next
weeks so we see as Jordan has pointed
out that the ethereum ETF launches next
week and SE sh Gary guinsler sees
ethereum ETF S1 approval coming sometime
in the summer but uh I think it's
possible that it's going to come much
sooner so therefore this is what we are
waiting for we are waiting for the
beginning of trading of the ethereum
sport ETFs to see how good it's going to
be and whether it's going to be also
sell the news which it could be again
anything can happen till the real
liquidity and the real M2 money supply
curve to actually start curving even
harder and to give us that liquidity
that we want but until then this is what
I would be paying attention to as
closely as I possibly could but just
generally
speaking uh the ETF launch is happening
is there and ethereum is three times
smaller than Bitcoin therefore any
inflow even 20% inflow with the
currently with tvl the total value
locked of ethereum even it slightest um
demand for E3 ETFs will be significant
for its price this is what people don't
really understand so this is what I
would be looking forward to and this
what I would be really trying to pay
attention to as hard as possible to not
miss out on this ones day TF St trading
which I'm going to keep you posted about
so subscribe hit that notification Bell
now to the chart and the chart is
looking a bit Grim so this is the chart
of Bitcoin and this is actually let me
remove the drawing because I said uh in
one of my previous videos that in case
if we do drop below which we actually
did right here of this support right
here which we actually did and we came
back and let's go to a smaller time
frame I guess well we actually came back
we retested it right here and now we are
going down so our Target right now is
probably like 65,000 right here so this
is our main support is to where we are
heading but the main support Still
Remains the Same area
57k for us to as I've showed you before
that we can actually go down a bit jug
along long maybe retest this area and
then finally into the elections we take
off and then this entire formation will
just look quite beautiful it's going to
just look like a consolidation and a
no-brainer but for now it looks quite
scary I understand that so especially on
eth that also has done and currently we
actually are standing at a very
important support and look this is my
old drawing that I didn't even remove
that we actually are going to the side
and actually dipping here it almost is
precise and then I'm expecting the price
to move off higher so right now we're
standing at a very important support
this has been it looks might might look
a bit like a floating level but actually
it has been quite an important support
so we're standing at an important
support here and again our main support
Still Remains 3K so I think that below
3K we shouldn't really be heading below
3K at this point with the ETF unless
it's going to be a total flop that's why
I'm saying you have to pay attention to
what is going to be happening with the
launch of the trading of the ETF but for
the time being again maybe it's going to
just extend a bit longer maybe we'll
just go a tiny bit lower we will
consolidate we will create something
like this and then finally we'll break
above so because of this and certainly
there is a chance of us still going tiny
bit lower I am all I'm doing right now
I'm actually I've just added to my long
trade just right here so I've just
officially that's why I'm saying like
the biggest world biggest bank in the
world is actually recognizing Bitcoin
and we have the ETFs and we have all of
this and the M2 money supply and the
elections coming so any correction now
in my humble opinion I could be wrong
but any correction now is a generational
wealth creation opportunity so that's
why right now we went on E from like
3900 down to like 3500 3400 so I think
it's a good place to add to the long
trade so therefore I've made this trade
now already 2 million it was 1.7 now
it's 2 million and currently sitting at
whatever 111,000 in profit so basically
that's what it looks like I just added
to it literally right here and in my
opinion I'll just keep building it if it
goes lower gives us this opportunity
maybe some recession some which
is still in the cards I'll keep adding
to it I'll probably I don't know if it
goes from 22 million to being a $5
million trade that would be pretty
amazing because I know the direction
down the road the direction is only up
and the downside here is limited
therefore this is what it means to have
an asymmetrical beted therefore it makes
total sense for me right here in terms
of eth considering this really nice pump
to actually add to it here and possibly
go all in right around here at 3K per
ethereum so this is my general idea let
me know what do you guys think down in
the comments and as always check out
this quick tutorial as to how to trade
Bitcoin prop risk in money manag but
don't forget about Event Horizon
something really cool being released on
Twitter so stay tuned don't forget about
it and be the early adopter and get all
the benefits and as always peace in love
Thomas Caro stay smart stay very rich
and get that 42% discount on trading
commissions on bit using my link down
below see you next video bye-bye
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