볼린저밴드 수축, 확장 선행해서 아는 방법 공개

Summary

In this video, Kevin, a global trader and head coach, dives deep into the complexities of Bollinger Bands, challenging the common misconceptions around its simple buy-and-sell signals. He offers a more effective approach by focusing on the concepts of market contraction and expansion, highlighting when to use trend-following strategies and box-range trading. Kevin emphasizes the importance of understanding Bollinger Bands in conjunction with moving averages and market phases. By mastering these principles, traders can significantly improve their market timing and decision-making, ultimately enhancing their profitability in real-world trading scenarios.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bollinger Bands should not be used as a simple buy-sell signal (buy when price hits the lower band, sell when it hits the upper band). This simplistic approach can lead to losses rather than profits.
• 😀 Key to using Bollinger Bands effectively is understanding when the bands are contracting (indicating range-bound markets) and expanding (indicating trending markets).
• 😀 The core principle is that Bollinger Bands are used in three main ways: trend trading during expansion, range trading during contraction, and combining with moving averages for higher probability trades.
• 😀 The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is typically the 22-period moving average, and the bands themselves are created using standard deviations (two times the standard deviation above and below the average).
• 😀 When the price is within the bands, there is a 95.44% probability it will stay within those bounds, which can help inform decision-making.
• 😀 When Bollinger Bands are contracting, it indicates price is moving sideways, and traders can use this information to engage in range trading (buy at the lower band, sell at the upper band).
• 😀 When Bollinger Bands are expanding, it indicates that a trend is forming, and traders can look for trend-following opportunities in the direction of the breakout.
• 😀 To use Bollinger Bands effectively in practice, you must know when the bands are contracting and expanding. This can be predicted by understanding market conditions and the movement of moving averages.
• 😀 The key to predicting contraction and expansion in Bollinger Bands is analyzing the distance between moving averages (such as the 22-period and 62-period) and observing whether they are converging or diverging.
• 😀 Price adjustments and corrections (both price and time-based) can be used as entry points. Price corrections during a trend allow for entries at more favorable prices, while time-based corrections can signal range-bound conditions for potential trades.

Q & A

What is the core concept behind Bollinger Bands in trading?

Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool used to measure price volatility. They consist of three lines: the middle line is a moving average, and the upper and lower bands are set two standard deviations away from the middle line. They help identify periods of high and low volatility in the market.

Why is using Bollinger Bands as a simple buy-sell signal not effective?

Simply buying when the price touches the lower band and selling when it touches the upper band is too simplistic and can lead to losses. The market often moves unpredictably, and relying solely on these signals ignores the broader context of market trends and volatility.

What are the key phases in the behavior of Bollinger Bands?

Bollinger Bands have two key phases: contraction and expansion. When the bands contract, it signals low volatility and a sideways market, suitable for box trading. When the bands expand, it indicates high volatility and the potential for a trending market, suitable for trend-following strategies.

How can moving averages improve the effectiveness of Bollinger Bands?

Moving averages, especially the 22-period and 62-period moving averages, can help confirm trends. When the 22-period moving average crosses above the 62-period moving average, it signals the beginning of an uptrend. This can help validate when Bollinger Bands are expanding and indicate a strong trend.

What role do moving averages play in identifying a sideways market?

In a sideways market, the 22-period and 62-period moving averages will often be widely spaced apart. When these averages begin to converge, it suggests that the market is entering a period of consolidation or range-bound trading, which corresponds to the contraction phase of Bollinger Bands.

What does the expansion of Bollinger Bands indicate about the market?

The expansion of Bollinger Bands typically signals the start of a trending market, where price volatility increases. This expansion indicates that the market is moving strongly in one direction, and traders may use this to follow the trend by entering trades when the price moves outside the bands.

How can traders use the contraction of Bollinger Bands to their advantage?

During the contraction phase, when the bands narrow, traders can look for price movements within the box range. This presents opportunities for box trading, where traders buy near the lower band and sell near the upper band, anticipating that the price will stay within the contracted range.

What is the significance of a 'golden cross' between the 22-period and 62-period moving averages?

A golden cross occurs when the shorter 22-period moving average crosses above the longer 62-period moving average. This event typically signals the beginning of an uptrend and can coincide with the expansion of Bollinger Bands, giving traders a signal to enter a trend-following trade.

What is the key factor in determining when Bollinger Bands will contract or expand?

The key factor in determining when Bollinger Bands will contract or expand is the price volatility. When the market moves in a range (sideways), the bands contract, and when there is significant price movement in one direction, the bands expand. Additionally, moving averages can help identify when the market is likely to transition between these phases.

How do price corrections fit into the use of Bollinger Bands?

Price corrections, or retracements, can be identified as periods when the price pulls back within a trend. When using Bollinger Bands, price corrections can be seen when the price moves toward the middle or lower band, and traders can look for buying opportunities near the lower band during a bull trend or selling opportunities near the upper band during a bear trend.