Before You Decide: 3 Steps To Better Decision Making | Matthew Confer | TEDxOakLawn

Summary

This inspiring transcript details a Stanford University challenge where students turned a $5 seed fund into an opportunity by selling presentation rights to a company. It outlines three key steps for effective decision-making: challenging constraints, embracing a pre-mortem to anticipate failure, and checking the basics to avoid overlooking details. The narrative is reinforced with examples including the 'Cobra effect' and the Mars Climate Orbiter mishap, culminating in Captain Sullenberger's heroic decision-making during the 'Miracle on the Hudson'.

Takeaways

• 💡 The winning team at Stanford didn't use the $5 seed money, instead they sold the presentation rights to a company, highlighting the importance of thinking outside the box and challenging the constraints of a problem.
• 🤔 The decision-making process should start by questioning the constraints that are presented, as they can limit innovative thinking.
• 🌟 The speaker runs a leadership development company that uses team-based competitive business simulations to prepare professionals for real-world decisions.
• 🔄 Post-mortem analysis is common, but the speaker suggests a 'pre-mortem' approach to consider potential failures before making a decision.
• 🐍 The 'Cobra effect' in India is an example of how not considering the potential negative outcomes of a decision can lead to disastrous results.
• 🚀 The Mars Climate Orbiter disaster was due to a basic oversight in unit measurements, emphasizing the importance of checking the fundamentals in decision-making.
• 🛫 Captain Sullenberger's response to the 'Miracle on the Hudson' is an example of challenging constraints, contemplating failure, and checking the basics in high-stakes decision-making.
• 🧘‍♂️ Before making a decision, it's crucial to balance envisioning success with contemplating potential failure to better formulate a course of action.
• 🔍 A pre-mortem involves thinking through how a decision could fail before it's implemented, which can help mitigate risks and prevent costly mistakes.
• 📏 Checking the basics is often overlooked but is vital in ensuring that simple tasks and details do not become the downfall of a well-thought-out decision.
• 🛑 The speaker concludes with the three steps to effective decision-making: challenge constraints, embrace a pre-mortem, and check the basics.

Q & A

What was the challenge presented to the students at Stanford University in the entrepreneurship class?

The students were given an envelope with five dollars of seed funding and tasked with turning the five dollars into the most money possible in a short timeframe.

What did the winning team at Stanford do with the five dollars that was different from the other teams?

The winning team did not use the five dollars. Instead, they sold the rights to their presentation to a local company for a fee, using the opportunity of the presentation to attract potential recruits.

What is the importance of challenging constraints in the decision-making process as illustrated by the Stanford story?

Challenging constraints allows individuals to think beyond the limitations and come up with innovative ideas that might not have been considered otherwise.

What is a 'pre-mortem' and how does it relate to decision-making?

A pre-mortem is a forward-looking analysis where one envisions potential failures before making a decision. It helps to identify and mitigate risks that could lead to unsuccessful outcomes.

What is the 'Cobra effect' and what does it teach us about decision-making?

The 'Cobra effect' refers to a situation where a solution to a problem makes the problem worse. It teaches us the importance of considering the potential negative consequences of a decision before implementing it.

What is the significance of the NASA Mars climate orbiter spacecraft story in the context of decision-making?

The story highlights the importance of checking the basics and ensuring that all teams are aligned on the same standards and units of measurement to avoid catastrophic mistakes.

What is the third step in effective decision-making as suggested by the speaker?

The third step is to check the basics, ensuring that small details and simple tasks are not overlooked, which can often be the downfall of even the most complex and well-thought-out plans.

What is the story of 'Sully' Sullenberger and how does it relate to the three steps of effective decision-making?

Sully Sullenberger's story of landing a plane in the Hudson River after both engines failed illustrates the three steps: challenging constraints by considering unconventional solutions, embracing a pre-mortem by contemplating different scenarios of success and failure, and checking the basics by ensuring all critical details were confirmed before and after the landing.

How did the speaker's company, Inability, contribute to the understanding of decision-making?

Inability, a leadership development company, has facilitated team-based competitive business simulations for over 20,000 professionals in 30 countries, providing real-world insights into exceptional decision-making.

What is the relevance of the transcript's content to everyday decision-making, regardless of the scale of the decision?

The principles of challenging constraints, embracing a pre-mortem, and checking the basics are applicable to all decisions, from personal choices to professional and critical decisions, helping to improve the decision-making process and outcomes.

What can we learn from the transcript about the common pitfalls in decision-making?

The transcript suggests that common pitfalls include accepting constraints without question, focusing too much on success without considering failure, and overlooking the basics which can lead to significant errors.