Is The Stock Market About The Explode Next Week?

Summary

In this portfolio update, the investor discusses recent performance, with the Kosh portfolio up 7.34% last week, outperforming the S&P 500. While down 14.8% year-to-date, the portfolio is still up 36% since inception. The investor outlines a strategy moving forward, focusing on macroeconomic factors like tariffs and inflation, particularly the impact of tech companies such as Apple and Nvidia. There's also discussion about the rise of autonomous vehicles, portfolio adjustments, and the potential for a V-shaped recovery in the market. The emphasis is on long-term focus and staying informed amidst market uncertainties.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Kosh investing portfolio rose 7.34% in the past week, outperforming the S&P 500's 5.67% increase.
• 😀 Year-to-date, the Kosh portfolio is down 14.8%, while the S&P 500 is down 8.9%.
• 😀 Since inception, the Kosh portfolio is up 36%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 7.48%.
• 😀 The market is in a V-shaped recovery, similar to the one in 2020, with positive news fueling market optimism.
• 😀 Recent tariff exemptions for electronics and semiconductors from Trump provide relief for tech companies like Apple and Nvidia.
• 😀 There's mixed messaging regarding future tariffs on electronics, adding uncertainty to market conditions.
• 😀 Uber’s robot taxis are gaining traction, now making up 20% of Uber's rides in Austin, showing strong consumer interest in autonomous vehicles.
• 😀 Inflation data such as CPI and PPI numbers came in better than expected, contributing to market optimism.
• 😀 The portfolio remains largely unchanged, with SoFi at the top, followed by Google and PayPal.
• 😀 The semiconductor sector is a key focus, with companies like AMD, Intel, and Micron likely to benefit from tariff policy changes.
• 😀 The presenter believes the market may have already bottomed, particularly for stocks like Tesla, and anticipates earnings reports to be generally positive but with a focus on guidance.

Q & A

What was the performance of the Kosh investing portfolio compared to the S&P 500 in the last week?

The Kosh investing portfolio was up 7.34%, while the S&P 500 was up 5.67% in the last week.

How has the Kosh investing portfolio performed year-to-date?

The Kosh investing portfolio is down 14.8% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is down 8.9%.

What is the performance of the Kosh portfolio since its inception?

Since its inception, the Kosh investing portfolio is up 36%, while the S&P 500 is up 7.48%.

What macroeconomic trend was highlighted in the video regarding equities?

The video discusses how equities are currently experiencing one of the sharpest drawdowns in the last 100 years, but the portfolio is currently outperforming and benefiting from this trend.

What was mentioned about the potential for a V-shaped recovery in the market?

The speaker suggests that a V-shaped recovery, like the one seen in 2020, could potentially occur again, especially if positive headlines or agreements, such as with tariffs, emerge.

What announcement was made regarding tariffs and electronics?

The Trump administration exempted smartphones, computers, and other electronics from reciprocal tariffs, offering relief to companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Dell.

How did the announcement about tariffs affect expectations for the market?

The announcement was initially expected to lead to a significant market rally, but conflicting statements about tariffs and future policies caused some uncertainty.

What is the current state of the Kosh portfolio, particularly regarding its holdings?

The Kosh portfolio has not changed much, with notable changes including Google moving up to number two and PayPal to number three, while SoFi remains number one.

How has the launch of robot taxis by Uber in Austin been received?

The launch of robot taxis in Austin has been very successful, with autonomous rides making up 20% of Uber's offerings since March, and consumer interest has grown as a result of the partnership with Waymo.

What is the outlook for stocks and earnings in the upcoming quarter?

The speaker expects many stocks to have already bottomed, with earnings for the next quarter potentially surpassing expectations, though the focus will be on guidance, particularly regarding uncertainties like tariffs.