王局拍案|戈尔巴乔夫,最成功的失败者。威权社会转型的风险在哪,为什么苏联会解体,而中国的改革有为什么会“成功”?20220831
Summary
TLDR视频中讨论了戈尔巴乔夫的生平及其对中国社会的影响。戈尔巴乔夫以其改革思想和新思维而闻名,对中国改革开放时期产生了深远影响。1989年访华时,他与邓小平的会晤标志着中苏关系正常化。然而,戈尔巴乔夫的改革最终未能实现其预期目标,反而导致了苏联解体,他本人也失去了权力。视频还比较了中苏两国改革策略的不同,指出中国选择先进行经济改革是明智之举,而戈尔巴乔夫的激进改革策略则是苏联解体的原因之一。
Takeaways
- 😀戈尔巴乔夫去世,他的改革和新思维在中国影响深远。
- 😀戈尔巴乔夫认为社会主义系统和集体农场系统无效,并提出人道主义超越意识形态斗争。
- 😀中国改革开放时,戈尔巴乔夫的书《改革与新思维》在中国非常受欢迎。
- 😀戈尔巴乔夫1989年访问中国,改善了中苏关系。
- 😀中苏关系因为毛泽东和赫鲁晓夫的竞争而恶化,但在邓小平和戈尔巴乔夫的推动下得以改善。
- 😀1989年戈尔巴乔夫访华期间,天安门广场上仍有学生游行。
- 😀1991年苏联解体,戈尔巴乔夫在克里米亚被保守派软禁。
- 😀戈尔巴乔夫未能实现他的改革目标,但他终结了冷战。
- 😀戈尔巴乔夫的改革在国内外引发了巨大变化,但导致了苏联解体。
- 😀戈尔巴乔夫的改革与晚清的宪政改革相似,最终导致了政权的崩溃。
- 😀中国从苏联解体中吸取教训,选择经济改革而非政治改革。
- 😀中国共产党通过经济改革和维护执政合法性,避免了苏联的命运。
- 😀戈尔巴乔夫在西方被视为结束冷战的英雄,但在俄罗斯被视为失败者。
Q & A
戈尔巴乔夫的去世对中国年轻一代有何意义?
-戈尔巴乔夫的去世让中国年轻一代回忆起改革开放时期,他的书籍《改革与新思维》在中国广受欢迎,影响了中国社会的思想解放运动。
戈尔巴乔夫对中国改革开放有何影响?
-戈尔巴乔夫的改革思想和实践对中国改革开放产生了重要影响,他的书《改革与新思维》成为中国改革的借鉴之一。
1989年戈尔巴乔夫访华的背景是什么?
-1989年戈尔巴乔夫访华是在中苏关系长期对立后,双方均有改善关系的需要,特别是邓小平希望改善与苏联的关系,为中国经济建设创造和平环境。
戈尔巴乔夫如何看待中苏历史上的领土争端和意识形态争论?
-在1989年的会晤中,戈尔巴乔夫和邓小平都表示,过去在领土争端和意识形态争论中的一些言论并不完全正确,显示了双方对历史的反思和和解的意愿。
如何评价戈尔巴乔夫在苏联解体中的作用?
-戈尔巴乔夫在苏联解体中起到了关键作用,他的改革措施虽然未能实现其预期目标,但最终导致了苏联的解体和冷战的结束。
戈尔巴乔夫为何被称为“最成功的失败者”?
-戈尔巴乔夫被称为“最成功的失败者”,因为他成功结束了冷战,促进了世界和平,但同时也导致了苏联的解体和自己政治生涯的结束。
戈尔巴乔夫的改革为何未能实现其预期目标?
-戈尔巴乔夫的改革过于激进,未能平衡好改革与政权合法性的关系,最终损害了自己的合法性,导致苏联解体。
中国和苏联的改革策略有何不同?
-中国选择了先进行经济改革,而苏联则选择了先进行政治改革。中国的改革策略更为稳定和渐进,使得社会各界都能从中受益。
中国共产党如何看待苏联的崩溃?
-中国共产党对苏联的崩溃感到震惊,并认为苏联的政治改革是导致崩溃的原因,因此中国在改革中更加谨慎,特别是对政治改革。
戈尔巴乔夫的去世对中国有何启示?
-戈尔巴乔夫的去世提醒中国在改革过程中要平衡好改革的深度与广度,处理好改革与政权合法性的关系,避免激进改革带来的不稳定。
戈尔巴乔夫的改革对中国改革开放有哪些借鉴意义?
-戈尔巴乔夫的改革经验提醒中国在改革开放中要注重改革的顺序和步骤,避免因改革过急而导致的社会动荡。
Outlines
📚戈尔巴乔夫对中国改革的影响
昨天晚上,我和大学同学聊到很晚,今天早上醒来看到戈尔巴乔夫去世的消息。戈尔巴乔夫在我们这一代人中印象深刻,因为他在改革开放时期写了一本在中国非常受欢迎的书,叫《改革与新思维》。戈尔巴乔夫认为社会主义体系无法奏效,并提出人道主义超越意识形态的斗争,这对当时中国的思想解放运动产生了巨大影响。他1989年访华时,与邓小平会面,解冻了中苏关系,给我们留下深刻印象。
🪖苏联解体与戈尔巴乔夫的角色
1989年,戈尔巴乔夫访问中国,见证了天安门广场的学生游行。1991年苏联解体时,我大学毕业,戈尔巴乔夫在克里米亚度假时被保守派软禁,但拒绝签署辞职令。叶利钦在这期间崭露头角,站在坦克上向市民和士兵讲话,士兵们放下武器,行动委员会的计划破产。12月25日,戈尔巴乔夫签署了解散苏联的命令,苏联旗帜被降下,叶利钦在克里姆林宫庆祝。
💡戈尔巴乔夫改革的失败原因
戈尔巴乔夫改革失败的原因在于他试图将权力下放,放弃计划经济,开放政治,但这些措施最终削弱了自身的合法性。对比中国,清朝在鸦片战争后改革失败,而戈尔巴乔夫的改革在苏联解体时也同样失败。专制社会向开放社会过渡的过程极其危险,需要高超的政治策略。
🔍中国对苏联解体的反思
苏联解体对中国产生了巨大影响。中国共产党认为苏联的政治改革导致了解体,因此选择专注于经济改革,并通过科学发展观和三个代表等理论重建合法性。相比之下,苏联的改革过于激进,导致了社会动荡和最终的失败。戈尔巴乔夫被认为是历史上最成功的失败者,他的改革虽然结束了冷战,但未能达到预期目标,最终失去了权力。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡戈尔巴乔夫
💡改革开放
💡意识形态
💡铁幕
💡苏联解体
💡改革
💡新思维
💡人道主义
💡合法性危机
💡经济改革
💡政治改革
Highlights
昨晚与大学同学聊天晚睡,今早醒来得知戈尔巴乔夫去世的消息。
戈尔巴乔夫对中国80年代改革和思想解放运动有深远影响。
戈尔巴乔夫的《改革与新思维》一书在中国广受欢迎。
戈尔巴乔夫认为社会主义制度和集体农庄制度不可行。
戈尔巴乔夫提出人道主义超越意识形态之争。
戈尔巴乔夫1989年访华,中苏关系开始正常化。
戈尔巴乔夫与邓小平的会晤,标志着中苏关系的新篇章。
1991年苏联解体,戈尔巴乔夫签署了解散苏联的命令。
戈尔巴乔夫被评价为最成功的失败者。
戈尔巴乔夫成功结束了两大阵营的敌对状态,结束了铁幕。
戈尔巴乔夫的改革未能实现其预期目标,导致苏联解体。
改革过程中的自我否定可能导致政权合法性的丧失。
晚清改革的失败与政权合法性危机有关。
戈尔巴乔夫的改革过于激进,采取了突然的方式。
中国共产党选择先进行经济改革,而非政治改革。
中国共产党在改革中更加注重证明其执政合法性。
戈尔巴乔夫去世后成为历史人物,人们对他的评价各异。
Transcripts
Last night I chatted with my college friends and slept late
This morning I woke up and saw that Gorbachev had passed away
Gorbachev, this guy
Our generation has a deeper impression of him
We went to university just in time for the reform and opening up
The era of the fierce intellectual liberation movement
At the time, Gorbachev had a book that was popular in China
The name of the book is Reform and New Thinking
This book was actually written after Gorbachev came to power
He believed his understanding toward the communist system
system of socialist communism
To renew awareness
To put it bluntly, the socialist system is not going to work
collective farm system, the public ownership system does not work
Add to that his ideological strife between the two camps
Also re-examined
He then brought up
Humanitarianism actually transcends ideological strife
Why does this book have a great impact on Chinese society?
Because of a very important reason
It was when China was also engaged in reform and opening up
Then the Soviet Union, as the big brother of the socialist camp
Although it does not have a good relationship with China
But its re-evaluating the socialist system
It also became the era of the ideological liberation movement in China
A lot of people draw over
As a very important reason to learn from
You think that the Soviet Union was the first country to develop socialism
It is also the leading brother of the socialist camp
big brother are rethinking the public system
Rethinking the socialist system now
Then as other countries you have what reason not to change it?
So this is a very impressive thing
The second thing
It was then in 1989 when Gorbachev visited China
Because we all know that Sino-Soviet relations used to
There have been decades of antipathy
The first is a comrade plus brothers and then turned against each other
The reason is because Mao and that Khrushchev
Trying to compete for the big brother of the socialist camp
Later, after the unsuccessful competition, China and the Soviet Union turned against each other
China then published a nine-commentary article in the People's Daily
Commenting on the Soviet view that the Soviet Union was engaging in revisionism
No more socialism
So the whole communist camp was thus split
Splitting into parts, one was following the Soviet Union
one was following China
But later, after Deng Xiaoping came to power
including later changes in the political situation in the Soviet Union
In fact, both China and the Soviet Union have such a need to improve the relationship between the two parties
Before Brezhnev's death
It is also said to have written a letter to the Chinese Communist Party
Just hope to improve the relationship
This is especially true after Deng Xiaoping came to power
After Deng Xiaoping came to power, he not only established diplomatic relations with the United States
At the same time, he wanted to make good relations with the Soviet Union
Why though?
Because at that time the Soviet Union had millions of troops on the northern border of China
It's the Sino-Mongolian border and the Sino-Soviet border
This is a real and very big threat to China
And China wants to build its economy
To build the economy, you need a peaceful environment
So Deng Xiaoping very much hope to be able to defrost this relationship with the Soviet Union
At this time, the conditions are actually in place
Because Mao has actually been dead for many years, right?
That personal grudge is no longer there
Another very important point
It's the two countries, China and the Soviet Union, that have given up
Ideology-centered diplomatic thinking
After Deng Xiaoping came to power in China
It's starting to go the way of pragmatism, isn't it?
The Soviet Union also abandoned the past after Gorbachev came to power
That ideology-centered diplomatic thinking
So it was under these circumstances that on May 16, 1989
Gorbachev's visit to China on May 15
The two sides met on May 16th at the Great Hall of the People
At that time, Tiananmen Square was still full of students marching
Meeting between Gorbachev and Deng Xiaoping in Tiananmen Square
In the process of this meeting Deng Xiaoping is actually quite smart
On the one hand, he said
Soviet Union has occupied so much territory in China throughout history
And then later on the Sino-Soviet debate
In fact, he later euphemistically said
He said that we now look at what was said during the debate back then
We don't think it's all right now either
It is also a disguised admission
The spirited diplomatic rhetoric of the time was itself wrong
Gorbachev also said
He said we also thought the things we said at the time
was not always right
That's why China and the Soviet Union have a nearly 30-year-long feud
Just because Deng Xiaoping and Gorbachev met each other, they have no grudge
So we were particularly impressed by this
especially on 1989
The third impression is the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991
I was graduating from college that year.
At the time of the August 19 coup d'état
At that time Gorbachev went on vacation to Crimea
It's the same place that Ukraine and Russia are fighting over now
As a result, the conservative wing of the party held him down and put him under house arrest
Then it was announced that Gorbachev was dismissed from his post
Gorbachev was quite tough at the time and refused to sign
Then the Western society supported Gorbachev
It was in the middle of the "August 19 Incident" that Yeltsin rose to prominence
That so-called action committee at the time
Then they sent troops into Moscow and tried to surround the Kremlin
As a result, Yeltsin stood on a tank and told the citizens of Moscow
And these soldiers, giving speeches
After a speech the soldiers put down their weapons by themselves
refused to carry out these so-called action committee orders
The whole affair was aborted, and it went bankrupt
Then Gorbachev was released back into office
But not long after, on December 25 of that year
Gorbachev also signed an order for the dissolution of the Soviet Union
The antecedent, of course, was because Yeltsin had met
The heads of those three countries of Belarus and Ukraine
They signed themselves up to form a Commonwealth of Independent States
Then he declared himself that the Soviet Union no longer existed
Gorbachev amounted to an admission of this reality
On December 25, I still remember that the TV
After he signed it
That's an Associated Press reporter
Or which reporter, just took his pen away
After taking it away, he told others
It was this pen that announced the end of the Soviet Union
Gorbachev's own memories
It was on December 25 that he signed this resolution
He hasn't finished signing
Then the Soviet flag has been lowered
When he got back to the Kremlin, he said it was so quick!
Then the next day
He made another trip to the Kremlin
When he went there he saw this Yeltsin with some of his buddies
drinking whiskey in that room, with a special pleasure
Gorbachev says, this scoundrel
Gorbachev he thinks Yeltsin stole his power
how to evaluate Gorbachev as a person?
Personally, I think Gorbachev was the most successful loser
Why he is the most successful loser
First of all, success
That's because he succeeded in ending the hostility between the two camps
The Iron Curtain has ended
What is Iron Curtain
It was the year when the society
The world is divided into the socialist camp and the capitalist camp
These two camps are the relationship between Death and Life
Ideologically, they are incompatible
You want to destroy me, I want to destroy you
This is no possibility of peaceful coexistence
Only this war when to fight, do not know
So both sides are engaged in an arms race
pulled a bunch of their own country and started messing
On the Soviet side, the socialist camp is the Soviet Union headed by
People who did not live in that era may find it difficult to appreciate
The shadow of that era for every ordinary person
It's because at that time everyone knew
World War III will have to be fought sooner or later
And if we're going to fight, we'll probably still have nuclear weapons at the core
Then you need to know
The nuclear weapons of the United States and the Soviet Union at the time
Can destroy the world dozens of times
Then think about if there is a world war
Every ordinary person that fate can be imagined
So no one knows how this iron curtain ends when
Gorbachev appeared
This Gorbachev on the one hand to the internal
He began to deny the planned economic system of the past
Externally he began to reconcile with the West
Then include the socialist camp
He used to control the internal affairs of all these countries
Any country do not obey, he'll just send troops over
Arrest your leaders and shoot them
But then we all know
Gorbachev did not intervene when the Berlin Wall came down
He announced the recognition of the reunification of the two Germanies
Honestly, he could have intervened
If he said that sending Soviet troops to East Germany
suppression of that action in East Germany at that time
In fact, there is no problem, the two Germans have not yet been able to unify
But Gorbachev at a critical time
gave up on him to intervene in the process of German unification
It should be said that the Germans are very grateful to Gorbachev
Also includes many countries in Eastern Europe
thanks a lot to Gorbachev
He made such a move at a critical time in history
The historical status is very high
But on the other hand, why is he a loser?
He was the one who ended the Iron Curtain, including the collapse of the Soviet Union
Not in the intended target of his reform
After he stepped down
I remember it was around '05 or '12
Because he has given many media interviews since he stepped down
The media reporters then asked him
Say your goal of reform, your goal of that new thinking
Is it going to end the Soviet Union?
Because until today
In fact, in the territory of Russia
Also includes the territory of some countries of the former Soviet Union
Many people still hold a grudge over the collapse of the Soviet Union
That's why many Russians think
Gorbachev is a sinner of Russia
Gorbachev himself thought he said no
His own words
He said the purpose of my reform was simply to
Give localities some more power
And do not want to honestly start to dismantle the Soviet Union
That means he admitted it himself
the collapse of the Soviet Union that was not the goal of his reforms
Then that includes losing power himself
(became)Soviet President for about a year
He'll be finished, the Soviet Union will be gone
And he's out of a job, right?
I don't think these are within the scope of his intended goals
So I think he's a loser.
is a failed successor
Then the next question
We then want to discuss the reforms in the former Soviet Union
That's why Gorbachev's reforms failed
In fact, if you look at many of Gorbachev's reforms
A lot of it is true from an ideological point of view
In the case of many third parties, for example, he engages in publicity
communists engage in publicity
In the past you were all about small circle politics
You don't let people see it in your decision making process either, do you?
Democratize and open up the party ban
He declared before his first election as President of the Soviet Union
The whole society is free to form political parties and associations
Then began to deny the planned economy
These are very sound policies
Why did it ultimately lead to his own loss of power?
Why it led to the collapse of the entire Soviet Union
So I think this is an issue that deserves special consideration
My point is an authoritarian society
In the process of transition to an open society
It is the most dangerous time in this society
see North Korea today
This North Korean Kim family dynasty has actually been in business for 70 to 80 years
Very stable, if there are no outside factors
Let's say there's another war in Korea
Or a U.S. military strike against it
this society can actually always be maintained
There are three generations of Kim, there may be eight generations of Kim, ten generations of Kim are no problem
it is stable enough
Because it is the stabilization system in the middle of that system
Because no one else within it can challenge its rights
So when is the danger
That is, if North Korea is reforming and opening up
Let's say it starts to open up
People in North Korea can hear South Korea-South Korea radio stations
Watch Korean TV
Knowing that in the world
They do not live as happy as they used to think
That's dangerous
Why do we say that?
because in the process of authoritarian societies transition to open societies
Means denial of oneself
Why do you want to reform
Reform is because you're not doing it right
Then you are in the process of denying yourself
Can still maintain the stability of this society
In fact, it is a technical work, the difficulty is very high
In my opinion, the collapse of the Soviet Union was also Gorbachev's reform
In large part because of this reason
It is because his reforms eventually hurt his own legitimacy
I can also give you an example from China
It is the last 10 years of the late Qing Dynasty
In fact, if you look at it from a post-apocalyptic perspective, the reform is very serious
Many measures done very well
There are even many initiatives
From the perspective of China today, it is still considered to be very good
We all know that the Qing Dynasty
Since 1840, after the Opium War with the British
The first time it was beaten by the British, it was actually not touched by anything
Later, after the British and French allied forces burned down the Yuanmingyuan
Start of the foreign affairs movement
The foreign affairs movement has been engaged in 30 years
"Chinese essence and Western utility"
This has been done for 30 years
Finally, because of a naval battle in the Sino-Japanese War, the Beiyang Navy was wiped out
Eventually, the nation's intellectuals
The two sides of the court and the opposition have jointly formed a perception
It's just not possible to make technical level changes
The system of this country must be touched
So after the Sino-Japanese War
At that time the Qing dynasty sent five ministers to the Western countries to study
The first stop at that time was in Japan
Liang Qichao was in exile in Japan
He was the most wanted man of the Qing Dynasty
Then Liang Qichao wrote a memo to the five ministers
Help them write their memorials and introduce them to the Japanese constitutional system
Quite an interesting part of the story
After the five ministers returned from their visit
The Qing dynasty then began to promote constitutional reform in the true sense of the word
Constitutional reforms such as the abolition of the imperial examination system in the education system
Began construction of a modern, new-style school
You learned well after the new-style school
The government can also award you officers directly
Secondly, the army has abolished the Green Standard Army of the past
That so-called professional soldiers hereditary soldiers, to start training the new army
Training the new army according to the modern military system
Then the official system follows the entire modern hierarchical system
Formation of a new official system
Abolition of the past six ministries
This was at the time of the 1905 meeting of the Bing Wu Guan Zhi government reform
In the place where we have the back lake of Peking University today
Then the formation of the Council was started immediately afterwards.
The Council is the predecessor of the Parliament
To prepare for the transition to a parliamentary system
Then form a cabinet
This series of reforms from a later date
I think it's really well done and very serious
Very well done indeed
But why did the Qing dynasty still end up
died when it was most serious about reform
And because of an extremely fortuitous factor
Several low-ranking soldiers mutinied and the Wuchang Uprising
And it's finished
I studied constitutional reform in the late Qing Dynasty as part of my master's degree
And my conclusion was
The Qing dynasty lost its reigning legitimacy
When a ruler has a crisis of reigning legitimacy
It doesn’t matter anymore, even if he did an excellent job of ruling the country.
Think about the slogan proposed by Sun Yat-sen at the time
It was “Expel the Tartars and restore China.”
Because he believed the ruling of Manchu over Han Chinese
was the reason for the series of failures and humiliation in modern Chinese history.
It is an extremely ridiculous slogan from a historical point of view,
While it was pretty inflammatory at the time.
A simple slogan like this one usually works better to reach people and unite them together.
At the same time, the Qing Dynasty lost its opportunities to reform before the first Sino-Japanese War (1894-95)
Therefore, people from various levels of the society,
from Han Chinese intellectuals to low-level soldiers and oversea students in Japan
all believed that overthrowing Qing Dynasty would bring prosperity to China.
It was just this simple.
Sometimes, revolution doesn’t need sense but sensibility.
In my opinion, the most challenging problem for a government,
especially an authoritarian government,
during its reform is how to deal with the relationship between
the self-denied reform policy and reigning legitimacy.
It requires the best political strategy.
I would like to elaborate on this point.
The demise of the Soviet Union had a great impact on China
As we know, the Communist Party of China was shocked
by the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The CPC concluded that the result of the political reform
of the Soviet Union was the collapse itself.
The communist party of the Soviet Union didn’t even exist anymore.
The campaign of Opposing Peaceful Evolution around the time
was the result of CPC’s reflection on the Soviet Union.
The CPC was shocked again when the Nationalist Party
lost the democratic election in Taiwan in 2000.
It indicated that the democratic process would lead to the loss of power.
These two incidents significantly impacted the choice of strategy for reform in China.
The CPC chose to carry on economic reform.
This is a difference between China and the Soviet Union in the choice of the reform strategy.
I think it is one of the mistakes of the Soviet Union.
They chose to start political reform before economic reform,
which means the country and its people experienced the turbulence of political reform
before benefiting from the economic reform.
In retrospect, it is not a good strategy for sure.
Secondly, the reform of the Soviet Union was too radical
They chose to take a sudden approach rather than an incremental one.
While the CPC had a more stable approach, which was to reform the economy first.
And almost everyone from every level of society benefited from it.
We must admit that the whole society benefited from the oping-up and reform of China.
Some people may get more; some people may get less,
But everybody shared the interest.
And at the same time
You should be aware that the CPC put a lot of effort into proving its reigning legitimacy.
For Examples, the so-called Early Stages of Socialism,
the Scientific Outlook on Development, and Three Represents
To put it bluntly, there are all attempts to recreate the reigning legitimacy of CPC
after abandoning the communist ideology.
The CPC is much wiser than the CPSU on this.
Furthermore, the CPC realized that political reform should be taken very carefully.
The CPSU and the Nationalist Party had set an example.
As a result, the CPC has been pushing forward economic reform
while the space for political reform has become tighter and tighter.
At last, Gorbachev became a historical figure after he passed away.
People may have different opinions about him.
My evaluation of him is what I said today; he is the most successful loser.
Ok, this is it for today
Thank you for watching.
English subtitles: Zecheng and 大海
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