WARNUNG! RIESEN FALLE FÜR BITCOIN, ALTCOINS & DIE TRADITIONELLEN MÄRKTE?!

Summary

In this video, Natalie provides an in-depth analysis of the recent FOMC meeting and its implications on the market. She discusses the green market trends following the meeting, explaining that while the market is showing short-term optimism, caution is necessary. Natalie touches on key updates like the Fed's decision to slow down quantitative tightening and Trump's upcoming speech at the Digital Asset Summit, which has increased market volatility. She advises being cautious with investments but remains cautiously optimistic for a potential rally, highlighting significant resistance levels and long-term bullish potential for Bitcoin.

Takeaways

• 😀 The market is currently in the green, but caution is advised as we are not out of the downtrend yet.
• 😀 The FOMC meeting resulted in no surprise rate cuts, and the Fed still expects two more rate cuts this year.
• 😀 Inflation projections have increased, with headline inflation now at 2.7% and core inflation at 2.8%.
• 😀 The Fed's updated unemployment projection is 4.4%, higher than the previous 4.3%.
• 😀 The Fed will slow down its quantitative tightening (QT) process by half starting in April, which is a positive market signal.
• 😀 Despite slowing QT, the Fed won't start quantitative easing (QE) until interest rates hit zero, which is still far off.
• 😀 Trump is expected to announce important changes for Bitcoin and the crypto market at the Digital Asset Summit, potentially increasing market volatility.
• 😀 There are rumors of potential tax cuts on crypto gains, but no major changes are expected at this time.
• 😀 Bitcoin has broken above the 200-day moving average, a positive sign, but it remains in a downtrend until key resistance levels are cleared.
• 😀 A significant market rally may occur if Bitcoin can break through key levels like $95,000, but this remains uncertain for now.
• 😀 Long-term, the outlook remains bullish, but short-term caution is recommended due to current market conditions and economic factors.

Q & A

What was the general market trend after the FOMC meeting?

The market turned green, with positive movements following the FOMC meeting, though caution is advised as the overall trend may still be bearish.

What did the Federal Reserve announce about interest rates at the FOMC meeting?

The Federal Reserve did not lower interest rates as expected and maintained the projections of only two additional rate cuts for the year.

How did the Fed revise its inflation and unemployment forecasts?

The Fed revised its inflation expectations upward, now predicting a headline inflation of 2.7% and core inflation of 2.8%. It also revised the unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%.

What positive news came from the FOMC meeting regarding quantitative tightening (QT)?

The Fed announced that it would slow down its quantitative tightening (QT) by halving the pace at which it is reducing its balance sheet starting in April.

What is the significance of the Fed's decision to slow down QT?

The slowdown in QT is seen as positive for the market, as it reduces the amount of liquidity being removed. However, it does not mean that the Fed will start quantitative easing (QE) or injecting money back into the economy.

How does the Fed's stance on interest rates affect potential for a recession?

The Fed has acknowledged the risk of a recession, but they do not see it as a high likelihood at the moment. They also stated that they will not rush into rate cuts.

What major economic concern does former President Trump have regarding the Fed's policies?

Trump is concerned about the high levels of U.S. debt, which will need to be refinanced at higher interest rates, and he is pushing for the Fed to lower rates to avoid economic issues.

What impact could Trump's actions have on the markets?

Trump may try to influence the Fed to cut rates by pushing for a market downturn, as he aims to prevent higher borrowing costs due to the rising debt levels.

What does the speaker's trading strategy reflect regarding the market?

The speaker is cautiously bullish in the short term, cautious in the medium term, and still bullish in the long term. They are monitoring key price levels like the $95,000 mark for Bitcoin to signal a potential shift in the market.

What chart pattern was referenced to support a bullish outlook for Bitcoin?

The Bitcoin-to-Gold chart was highlighted, showing that Bitcoin has historically found support when it approaches the 2.5-day EMA, which could indicate a bullish trend if Bitcoin holds this level.