如何看待中国的一带一路?|一带一路|习近平|普京|中国制造|基建狂魔|全球门户|王局拍案20231025
Summary
TLDRThe transcript covers China's Belt and Road initiative, which was proposed by Xi Jinping in 2013. The key arguments made are: 1) Belt and Road was proposed to deal with China's problem of excess manufacturing capacity as it transitions to a developed economy. By exporting infrastructure capacity abroad through Belt and Road projects, China can maintain employment and economic growth, while avoiding hollowing out of domestic industries. 2) There are signs that China's manufacturing remains competitive internationally. For example, China beat Japan to win the bid for the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway project in Indonesia, despite offering worse loan terms, by willing to take on all operational risk and requiring no sovereign guarantee from Indonesia. 3) Whether Belt and Road succeeds depends on two factors - China's continued economic growth to fund overseas projects, and recipient countries achieving enough economic growth for projects like railways to become profitable. For the latter, not all developing countries can replicate China's high growth. 4) Belt and Road also has political motivations, not just economic. By leveraging debt traps, China gains political influence in places like Bangladesh and Montenegro. The risk of this debt strategy disturbs Western powers. 5) It is still early to evaluate if Belt and Road can transform from capital injection to catalysis for economic growth. But China has only begun challenging the global order by attempting to shape its rules and leverage smaller nations. Countries still lack countermeasures against moves like Belt and Road. In summary, Belt and Road has sound economic motivations and shows some continued competitiveness. But its sustainability depends on economic growth, while political motivations mean China can still benefit if projects fail financially. We likely need more time to evaluate Belt and Road’s success and implications for global influence.
Takeaways
- China proposed the Belt and Road initiative in 2013 to export its manufacturing capacity and address overcapacity issues.
- The Belt and Road initiative has both economic and political goals for China.
- China has invested over $1 trillion in Belt and Road projects in the past decade.
- Russia has become economically dependent on China due to Belt and Road investments.
- China competed with Japan to build a high-speed rail in Indonesia, demonstrating its infrastructure capabilities.
- The success of Belt and Road relies on continued economic growth in China and recipient countries.
- The Belt and Road initiative allows China to gain political influence through debt-trap diplomacy.
- The U.S. and E.U. have launched initiatives to counter China's Belt and Road.
- It's still early to fully evaluate the success of the Belt and Road initiative.
- The Belt and Road initiative is an attempt by China to shape a new international order.
Q & A
Why did China initiate the Belt and Road?
-China wanted to export its manufacturing capacity and address issues like overcapacity as its economy develops. Belt and Road opens new horizons for China's economy.
How much has China invested in Belt and Road projects?
-China has invested over $1 trillion in Belt and Road projects over the past decade.
How has Belt and Road impacted China's relationship with Russia?
-Massive Chinese investments in Russia, exceeding $300 billion, have made Russia economically dependent on China.
How did China demonstrate its infrastructure capabilities through Belt and Road?
-China competed with and beat Japan in bidding to build a high-speed rail in Indonesia, showcasing its infrastructure capabilities.
What factors impact the success of Belt and Road projects?
-Continued economic growth in China and recipient countries is key to the success and sustainability of Belt and Road projects.
How does Belt and Road allow China to gain political influence?
-Debt-trap diplomacy lets China gain political leverage and influence through Belt and Road investments.
How are the U.S. and E.U. responding to Belt and Road?
-The U.S. and E.U. have launched initiatives like Global Gateway and Global Fund to provide alternatives to Belt and Road.
Can we evaluate if Belt and Road has succeeded yet?
-It's still early to fully evaluate the success of Belt and Road as it's an ongoing, long-term initiative.
How does Belt and Road help China shape international order?
-Belt and Road allows China to gain allies and influence through investments, shaping international dynamics.
What are the goals of the Belt and Road initiative?
-The Belt and Road initiative has dual economic goals like exporting capacity and political goals like gaining influence for China.
Outlines
Xi Jinping's Haircut
The narrator acknowledges comments that his long hair makes him look like Hu Xijin and promises to get a haircut soon. He explains that he just returned from Taiwan and needs to hurry to make videos again after being away last week, so he can't take half a day to go to his regular barber. He promises to get a haircut this weekend.
Putin Panders to China at Belt and Road Summit
Putin attended the Belt and Road summit in Beijing and lavished praise on Xi Jinping in an interview with CCTV, calling him a global leader. This shows Russia's economic dependence on China, as its GDP is less than one Chinese province now. Coming to China despite facing arrest abroad shows Russia has become like a 'grandson' to China rather than a 'father'.
China's Motives for Belt and Road Initiative
China launched Belt and Road to deal with its excess manufacturing capacity as its economy develops. It wants to maintain its status as a manufacturing powerhouse rather than transfer industries overseas, which could lead to economic decline if upgrading fails. So it is exporting infrastructure capacity worldwide via Belt and Road, which provides employment and uses excess capacity while keeping industries in China.
China's Infrastructure Competitiveness
The Jakarta-Bandung railway shows China's infrastructure competitiveness. Despite offering worse terms than Japan, China won the bid by proposing shorter construction, no sovereign guarantee from Indonesia, and taking on all operational risks itself. China's manufacturing capabilities give it an edge in such projects.
Keys to Belt and Road's Success
Belt and Road's success depends on 1) China's continued economic growth to fund projects 2) Economic growth in recipient countries to ensure project viability. It could have a catalytic effect like the Marshall Plan if recipients replicate China's growth. Otherwise, it is just capital injection with limited impact.
Political Dimensions of Belt and Road
Aside from economic goals, Belt and Road has political aims. Large Russia projects are geopolitical. Money-losing projects trap countries in debt, giving China political leverage. For example, Montenegro may join EU but has unpayable Chinese debt, limiting its independence. So political benefits exist even if economic benefits are unclear.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Belt and Road Initiative
💡infrastructure capacity
💡debt trap
💡industrial upgrading
💡geopolitics
💡overcapacity
💡sustainable
💡developing countries
💡new international order
💡capital injection
Highlights
China proposed One Belt One Road to export its manufacturing capacity and address overcapacity issues as it transitions to a developed economy.
One Belt One Road allows China to maintain domestic employment while conquering the world with "Made in China" itself, exporting infrastructure capacity.
The competitiveness of "Made in China" is evidenced by its win over Japan's bid for the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway.
The success of One Belt One Road depends on China's continued economic growth to fund projects, and recipient countries' growth to support projects.
One Belt One Road has economic goals to export capacity and manufacturing, as well as political goals to leverage influence even if projects lose money.
Countries like Russia participate due to geopolitical considerations, binding their economies closely to China.
Some countries fall into debt traps with China, allowing China to gain political and economic leverage.
The EU and US have launched infrastructure initiatives in response to One Belt One Road, benefitting developing countries.
One Belt One Road's sustainability depends on whether projects catalyze growth or are just capital injections.
China invests in countries that may join the EU, leveraging potential veto power if debts are not repaid.
Developed countries lack countermeasures to China leveraging debt for political gains so far.
One Belt One Road represents the beginning of China's challenge to the global order.
Undeveloped Belt and Road participating countries are important chess pieces for China to leverage.
The EU and US don't participate in Belt and Road, while targeted countries align interests with China.
More time is needed to evaluate if One Belt One Road can transform from capital injection to growth catalyst.
Transcripts
Everyone, after yesterday's show ended
Many people commented below saying
"Director Wang, go get a haircut quickly"
"Your bangs now, no matter how I look at it, looks just like Hu Xijin"
I know my hair is a bit long
I also know once my hair grows long
For some reason it starts to look like Hu Xijin
In the past whenever people reminded me "Director Wang, you look like Hu Xijin again"
I would usually hurry to get a haircut
But the situation is a bit special this time
I just got back from Taiwan, have to hurry and resume making videos
Like I said yesterday, if I don't resume making videos, we will go bankrupt
But getting a haircut is quite troublesome
Because I go to a relatively fixed location to get my hair cut
The barber there is quite familiar with my hairstyle
Every time I go
Without me saying anything he just cuts it into that style
But if I randomly find a barbershop
Because my Japanese is quite bad
The Japanese barber might just cut my hair into Hu Xijin's style, that would be terrible
So getting a haircut on a work day
Is not something I can casually do
Because that barbershop is quite far from me
Each visit takes half a day
So I can only go get a haircut on weekends
So everyone please bear with me for a few more days
This weekend I will definitely go get a haircut
By then, this Director Wang that looks like Hu Xijin will transform
And become a refreshed and spirited Director Wang again
What topic shall we discuss today
Because I was in Taiwan last week and did not make any videos
But actually quite a lot happened in terms of domestic news last week
Today I want to talk about a relatively big news from last week
On October 18, the third Belt and Road Summit was held in Beijing
This summit was actually postponed
Because the first Belt and Road summit was held in 2017
The second in 2019, conventionally it should be held every two years
The third should have been in 2021
But as everyone knows, in 2021 there was the pandemic
Xi Jinping was holed up in Zhongnanhai everyday wearing a mask
Watching everyone be afraid of infecting him
He didn't dare hold the Belt and Road summit either
So in 2021 there was only a video conference, not at leader level
It wasn't until 2023
That he was sure no one else could infect him
This year after he confirmed no one else could infect him
That the third summit was finally held in Beijing
But the third summit coincided with the 10th anniversary of Belt and Road
So the scale this year was still quite grand
Because Belt and Road was first proposed in 2013
Not long after Xi Jinping came to power, during a visit to Kazakhstan
He proposed the Silk Road Economic Belt
After proposing it, some small Southeast Asian countries pandered to Xi Jinping
Saying "You can't just have the Silk Road, we want to participate too"
A few weeks later he also proposed the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road
That's how Belt and Road started
Up until this year it's the 10 year anniversary
So the scale of this year's third Belt and Road Summit was made very grand
140 plus countries sent representatives to participate
Over 10 countries' leaders came to Beijing to attend the summit
The heavyweight among them was Russia's President Putin
"Salute"
As everyone knows, since the Russia-Ukraine war
Putin has been wanted by international courts
So he generally doesn't dare to travel abroad now
Earlier he didn't attend the BRICS summit in South Africa
Because South Africa has extradition treaties with international courts
If Putin went he could have been arrested
So Putin has basically been holed up in Russia for over a year
But you saw for the sake of this third summit
He specially came to Beijing to pander to Xi Jinping
Not only that
Before coming to Beijing
He accepted an exclusive interview with CCTV's "High-End Interview" program
During the interview, Putin lavished praise on Xi Jinping
"President Putin, you've met with Chairman Xi around 40 times"
"In your view, what kind of leader is Xi Jinping?"
"Do you have any interesting stories between the two of you that you can share with us?"
"Chairman Xi is a globally recognized leader"
"I'm very glad you mentioned 2013 earlier"
"His speech at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations"
"I still have to relate your current question"
"To the proposal of the joint Belt and Road initiative"
"This is the third time today I'm repeating this topic, because it is very important"
"Chairman Xi is not a leader who makes decisions based on temporary circumstances"
"He analyzes situations, evaluates circumstances, and makes long-term considerations with foresight"
"This is very important"
"This is the real world leader"
"The difference from those we call 'temporary workers'"
"'Temporary workers' come for five minutes, show off a bit on the world stage"
"Then disappear without a trace"
"Chairman Xi is another kind of person"
"He is a steadfast, composed, pragmatic and reliable partner"
Calling him a world leader, although there is a "one of",
But you can see the relationship now between Russia and China
Is already very different from what many of us imagined in the past
Because whenever Russia is mentioned
Many Chinese Twitter users say it's "Russia dad"
That China has to be filial to its "Russia dad"
But you can actually see Putin's relationship with China now
Is already not "Russia dad, filial China son"
But rather Russia has basically become a "Russia grandson" status
Why is that
Ultimately relationships between countries are determined by economics
Russia's current GDP is less than one Chinese province
Think about it, how can it still act as China's dad
And China has so many projects investing in it
Everyone should know, the biggest recipient of Belt and Road funds is Russia
Over $300 billion in the past decade
The biggest project among them
Is the China-Russia natural gas pipeline project
With total investment of $55 billion
So think about how high Russia's economic dependence on China is now
So how can it possibly still act superior
Impossible
So coming to China is also pandering to China
So how to view this summit
And China's Belt and Road overall
In the past regarding Belt and Road
On Chinese Twitter and also Chinese political commentary YouTube channels
The consensus is basically that Belt and Road is a huge failure
Their main reasons are two aspects
First, it's a massive money squandering effort
China's domestic economy is riddled with problems, people living in misery
Yet Xi Jinping threw out $1 trillion
Randomly spending it all over the world in the past decade
Just spending it randomly, first
Secondly, these investment projects have all failed tremendously
Almost all ran huge losses or left those countries heavily indebted
Whether economically or politically
This is a total failure of a project
This is a common view
But I personally think this view may still have some problems
So today I'm going to talk about
My view on China's One Belt One Road initiative
First we have to trace back
Why China wanted to launch One Belt One Road at that time
One very important reason
Is that as China slowly transforms from a developing country
To a developed country, how to deal with
The problem of China's manufacturing capacity built up in the past
As we all know, China's manufacturing has conquered the world
So a very big problem brought by China's manufacturing
Is that as China's labor costs rise,
And its domestic consumption is also limited,
What will happen when China's manufacturing becomes overcapacity after continuous growth
Take steel production for example
The world's annual steel output is 1.8 billion tons
China's steel output is 1 billion tons
China accounts for about 55% of the world's steel output
India is second
India's output is only 120 million tons
Baowu Steel, the merger of Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel
Has an annual capacity of 130 million tons
Higher than the entire steel output of India
So you can imagine, with such huge steel capacity
It was certainly very important
During China's rapid infrastructural growth
But as you gradually become a developed country
You won't need so much crude steel
So look
The path taken by past developed countries
The US, Japan, the UK, Europe
They also all had such an era of infrastructural boom
But after becoming developed countries
They would gradually transfer such capacity to developing countries
Take their steel production for example
It peaked in the 1970s
And then started declining
As the capacity moved to China, they stopped domestic production
But this also has some problems
That is, after transferring those labor-intensive industries to developing countries
Your own industries must upgrade
Otherwise you will face double dilemmas
First, so-called "hollowing out" of industries
Because you have moved manufacturing away
As everyone knows, the Rust Belt in the US
These areas started experiencing declining employment
And the economic recession caused by failed industrial upgrading
On the other hand
If you manage to upgrade, then it's fine
But if you fail to upgrade
Then the momentum for your economic growth may diminish soon
Let me give an example, Taiwan in China
It was actually the leading economy among the "Four Asian Tigers"
With very rapid economic growth
It was mainly relying on labor-intensive industries
But after China's mainland started Reform and Opening up
Most of Taiwan's labor-intensive industries
Moved to mainland China
And some Southeast Asian countries
However, Taiwan's own industrial upgrading was not very successful
So in the past 20 years
Everyone can see
Taiwan's economic growth has been quite slow
It has even been surpassed by South Korea and others
This illustrates the downside if you transfer industries overseas
So I understand
China's strong awareness of the problems faced in its industrial upgrading process
There is a strong recognition
That China's manufacturing
Which has been very important for China's development, cannot be abandoned
So you see China is very wary of transferring capacity to Vietnam, India, etc.
It is unwilling to do so
It hopes China can continue to maintain its status as a manufacturing power
But then the problem comes
As a manufacturing power producing so much crude steel, cement
Producing so much of such "output"
Its own market cannot digest it
So China now has an idea
Not only to conquer the world with products made in China
It also hopes to conquer the world with "Made in China" itself
What does it mean by "Made in China" conquering the world
For example, building highways
This is certainly not a Chinese product
Because products can be moved
But highways cannot be moved
So China's idea is
I will export my infrastructure capacity to the whole world
By helping you build highways
China solves its own employment problem
And excess capacity problem
At the same time, it keeps "Made in China" capability at home in China
This is actually the original motive when China first initiated One Belt One Road
Personally
I think this idea is quite smart
Because if "Made in China" capacity is completely transferred to India, Vietnam
China's employment may decline
Because after all China is not a very advanced developed country
It still needs employment opportunities very much
On the other hand
If these capacities are transferred away
And China fails to fully upgrade its industries
Then China may soon face insufficient momentum for economic growth
So if "Made in China" can really go global
In the form of One Belt One Road
It would really open up new horizons for China
Next, let's review
How the so-called One Belt One Road has developed in the past 10 years
Personally
I think "Made in China" still has certain competitiveness in going global
Everyone can see
The most obvious example is in 2015
When China competed with Japan for the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway
Because Japan had built Shinkansen for decades
The technology is very mature, with zero accidents
But it lost to China in the bidding for the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway
Why?
Despite Japan offering even better terms than China
China's bid was $5.1 billion
Japan's bid was less than $5 billion, cheaper than China's
China's loan was from the China Development Bank
With 2% interest rate
While Japan's loan was in Japanese Yen
With only 0.1% interest rate
China's rate was 20 times that of Japan's
But in the end Indonesia chose China instead of Japan
Indonesia chose China instead of Japan
For several main reasons
First, China proposed a shorter construction period
To start construction in 2016 and complete it in 2019
Although it was not fulfilled later due to the pandemic
Second, in Japan's package proposal
It required Indonesia to raise 30% of the funds itself
And loan the remaining 70%
Requiring the Indonesian government to provide a sovereign guarantee
That is, if the project loses money in the future
The Indonesian government will pay it back
But in China's proposal
It did not require any sovereign guarantee from the Indonesian government
That is, China was willing to take all the operational risks of the entire Jakarta-Bandung railway
If the railway loses money, China takes the loss
So the final operation model of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway
China and Indonesia's companies set up a joint venture
China holds 40% stake, with a 50 year concession
The money collected from ticket sales in these 50 years is used to repay bank loans
If it fails to repay, China loses money
So the Indonesian government eventually chose China
The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway has been built recently
And entered the trial operation phase
I think the first three months are free now
Everyone can ride it
The ticket price is said to be 120 RMB when officially in operation
Whether it can make money eventually, we don't know
But we can see China's manufacturing competitiveness is still there
Not to mention those highway projects
Projects like dams, power plants built in many countries
China's One Belt One Road now is indeed marching forward on all fronts
So how should we evaluate China's One Belt One Road project?
Can it succeed?
Personally I think the success or sustainability
Of One Belt One Road depends on two considerations
The first is China's continued economic growth
Because without China's economic growth
Naturally there won't be so much money
To support One Belt One Road projects
Because most of these projects are US dollar loans
Not just RMB loans
So where do the US dollar loans come from?
They come from China's economic growth and trade surplus
This is very important, the first point
Second, the economic growth of the One Belt One Road investment recipient countries themselves
Take the Jakarta-Bandung railway I just mentioned
Whether the Jakarta-Bandung railway can recoup the investment
Depends on one factor
That is Indonesia's economic growth
If at Indonesia's current economic level
In the next 30 to 50 years
If it does not develop
The Jakarta-Bandung railway will definitely be a losing project
Because the ticket price of 120 RMB
Is still quite expensive for many Indonesians
About 1/10 of their average monthly income
Only with economic growth can the ticket price possibly increase
Or passenger traffic grows, so the project can make profit
China's thinking is: look at when we first built high-speed rail in China
Many places did not have particularly large passenger volume at the beginning
But after building them and operating for a few years, a virtuous cycle formed
Then high-speed rail itself started positive feedback
But can China's economic growth
Achieve such effects in these countries?
We don't know
Not all these developing countries
Can replicate China's economic growth
If you can replicate China's economic growth
Then China's One Belt One Road projects become
Something similar to the Marshall Plan in the past
Because the Marshall Plan did not actually spend a lot of money
It was a catalytic project
That ultimately turned Japan and European countries
From defeated nations
Into emerging economies with robust growth
But if it is just a pure capital injection
To be honest, it would not have much meaning
And for many developing countries
If you want to give them real catalytic functions
With just a few projects, it is quite difficult
Take some African countries for example
These countries have failed social governance
Simply giving them a few projects
Can hardly enable overall economic progress of the entire country
So this is also a
Very significant challenge for China's One Belt One Road projects
Finally, let me think again
How to evaluate China's One Belt One Road projects
I think it is hard to simply label it as a "failure"
Because One Belt One Road now has two goals
The first goal is of course the economic goal
That is what we talked about earlier
To export China's capacity and manufacturing overseas
Because such export is also beneficial to China's own economy
But on the other hand, it actually also has a political goal
That is to say, when the economic goal cannot be achieved
If its political goal is achieved
Then from a certain perspective
One Belt One Road has also achieved its goal
For example, the very large One Belt One Road projects
Between China and Russia
Are more due to geopolitical considerations
That natural gas project can ensure long-term energy supply to China for the next 30 years
And also bind Russia's economy tightly to itself
Making Russia China's "little brother"
So in this project process
Whether it makes money may not be so important
More important considerations may be political
And by investing in many developing countries
Many of its projects may indeed lose money
But China lets these countries
Fall into debt traps from a certain perspective
It can also gain political benefits
For example, Bangladesh, as we all know, went bankrupt
China's investment totaled 12 billion USD in debt
That certainly cannot be repaid
But China can hence obtain greater interests in Bangladesh
For example, leasing its ports
Compared to its ports
For example, there is a country in Europe called Montenegro, as we all know
China built a highway in Montenegro, over 40 km
Montenegro borrowed 1.2 billion USD from China to build this highway
Montenegro only has a population of 800,000
It wanted to build highways and tourism projects
It talked to the EU for many years, but the EU didn't approve
As a result, Montenegro turned to China, and China readily agreed
It is very likely Montenegro will not be able to repay this debt in the future
But now Montenegro is already an EU accession candidate
There is an opinion
That by next year, Montenegro may join the EU
But the EU makes decisions based on "unanimous agreement"
If after joining the EU
Montenegro cannot repay its debt to China
Think about it, facing China
Would Montenegro still dare to firmly say "no" to China?
So China only spent over a billion dollars
To leverage a country like Montenegro
This country may also join the EU
Did China make money or lose money?
In my view, China may have really made money
So in fact
The risk of China trapping many countries in debt
Is now also a very important factor
That the US and Europe see as very disturbing
Then Montenegro itself also said: What can I do?
I am just undeveloped, I do want highways
I asked you EU but you didn't give me
So you can see
In response to China's One Belt One Road projects
The US and Europe have started taking action recently
The EU launched a “Global Gateway” plan
The so-called “Gateway” plan means
You countries outside the EU also want infrastructure
Don't just look for China, we EU can also provide
But the conditions it put forward are
Your bidding process needs to be transparentized, no corruption, etc.
To be honest, this “Global Gateway” plan is in response to China's “Belt and Road”
The US recently started a project called the “Global Fund”
30 billion USD
The EU's “Global Gateway” plan is also 30 billion Euros
Both are to meet the challenge of China's “Belt and Road”
From my personal perspective
I think the projects launched by the US, EU and China
Can indeed benefit developing countries
Because of the rivalry between these major powers
You are competing to launch so-called “infrastructure plans”
Only then can these (developing) countries really obtain
Funding from these countries to help their development
Of course, ultimately all this depends on one factor
That is whether China's “Belt and Road” plan
As I said earlier, if these projects cannot be sustained
If it is just a capital injection project, it is doomed to be unsustainable
So in this process
Whether it can transform from simple capital injection to catalysis
It's still a bit early to evaluate right now
We may need more time to see
As for China trapping many countries in debt crises
And hence gaining greater political benefits
At least from what I currently see, countries around the world don't seem to have very good countermeasures yet
This is also one step in China's attempt
To shape a new international order
Because it has spent money to gain control of some countries
Turning them into its own interest allies
Or a pawn during the new international order
That follows China's baton
I have always said
China's challenge to this world has only just begun
Don't just look at the undeveloped countries participating
In this Belt and Road summit
Because these undeveloped countries are the very important pieces
China wants to leverage on the chessboard
What it confronts are the US and Europe
So think about it
It is natural that the US and Europe do not participate in “Belt and Road”
But if all these countries are won over by China
It would actually pose a very big challenge
During the whole international order process
Okay, I will stop here today, thank you everyone
“Salute”
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