Mark Douglas Trading Psychology 1/7 Intro
Summary
TLDRIn this insightful presentation, the speaker delves into the psychological aspects of trading, emphasizing the importance of mindset over technical analysis. He shares his journey of writing a third book aimed at addressing the gaps in understanding for novice traders, highlighting the need to change fundamental beliefs about market nature and trading psychology. The talk explores the challenges of transitioning from a mechanical to a discretionary trading approach, the impact of personal agendas on trading decisions, and the necessity to accept risk and think probabilistically. The speaker's anecdotes and experiences provide a relatable context, aiming to guide traders towards a consistent and successful trading mindset.
Takeaways
- 📚 The speaker is working on their third book, which aims to address the needs of novice traders who may not be able to relate to the content in their previous books.
- 🤔 The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding that trading involves probabilities and that each trade's outcome is unknown and unknowable.
- 🧐 The speaker highlights the difference between mechanical trading, where entry and exit points are clearly defined, and discretionary trading, which requires a high level of mental and emotional control.
- 💡 It is suggested that many traders are not aware of their state of mind and how it can significantly impact their trading decisions and outcomes.
- 🎯 The speaker discusses the concept of 'threshold of consistency', a mental state that traders must reach to achieve a consistently rising equity curve.
- 📉 The speaker shares personal anecdotes to illustrate the challenges and lessons learned from years of trading and teaching trading.
- 📈 Understanding order flow is crucial for traders to think correctly about market movements and to avoid common misconceptions.
- 🚫 Fear and anxiety have no place in successful trading; traders must be completely objective and detached from the outcome of each trade.
- 🎲 The speaker compares trading to gambling, explaining that while each trade is a guess, having an edge through analysis can lead to consistent profitability over a series of trades.
- 📝 The process of writing the new book has been challenging for the speaker, as they aim to convey complex concepts in a way that is accessible to traders at all levels.
- 🔍 The speaker encourages traders to be aware of their personal agendas that may interfere with their trading and to strive for a state of zero fear and complete trust in their trading abilities.
Q & A
Why is the speaker writing a third book on trading?
-The speaker is writing a third book because they realized their previous books, 'The Disciplined Trader' and 'Trading in the Zone', made assumptions that were not relatable to novice traders. They encountered a group of traders who were clueless about trading psychology and realized the need for a book that addresses trading issues from a ground zero perspective.
What was the speaker's experience like when attending a user group meeting in Phoenix?
-The speaker was taken aback by the enthusiasm of the group towards their trading company and its products. However, they were also surprised by the lack of understanding the group had about trading, despite their excitement, which prompted the speaker to consider writing a book for such traders.
What are the two categories of coaching clients the speaker has worked with?
-The speaker's coaching clients fell into two categories: professional traders who had been in the business for a long time and understood the importance of psychology in trading, and traders who had lost a lot of money and were at a point of complete exasperation, ready to do anything to improve.
Why did the speaker feel the need to break down trading concepts to a core level?
-The speaker felt the need to break down trading concepts to a core level to make them understandable for people new to the business. They realized that their previous books did not address the issues in a way that novice traders could relate to.
What is the significance of understanding order flow in trading according to the speaker?
-Understanding order flow is significant because it helps traders to think correctly about the market. Without understanding order flow, it is difficult to learn how to trade effectively, as it impacts how prices move and how traders should interpret market movements.
What is the threshold of consistency mentioned by the speaker?
-The threshold of consistency refers to a mental state where a trader has broken through the boom-and-bust cycle of equity and has achieved a consistent performance in trading. It is a mindset that has nothing to do with methodology but is crucial for successful trading.
Why did the speaker feel that their previous books were not effective for novice traders?
-The speaker felt that their previous books were not effective for novice traders because they were written with assumptions based on the speaker's experiences and did not take into account the perspective of someone who does not know anything about trading.
What is the importance of being detached from outcomes in trading?
-Being detached from outcomes in trading is important because it allows traders to be completely objective and to execute their trades properly without being influenced by emotions or the desire for a particular outcome.
What are the four primary trading fears mentioned by the speaker?
-The four primary trading fears mentioned by the speaker are the fear of being wrong, the fear of losing money, the fear of missing out, and the fear of leaving money on the table.
How does the speaker define mechanical trading?
-Mechanical trading is defined by the speaker as a mode where traders follow a set of rigid criteria that define entry and exit points. The market must conform to these rules, and there is no room for subjective interpretation or decision-making.
What is the main challenge the speaker faced while writing the third book?
-The main challenge the speaker faced while writing the third book was breaking down complex trading concepts into a simple and understandable format for novice traders, without making assumptions about their prior knowledge or experience.
Outlines
📚 Returning to Writing After a Hiatus
The speaker acknowledges their return to writing after a three-year break, with their last presentation in 2012 for John in Chicago. They express concern about the pressure to perform well and the challenge of getting started after such a long time away from this activity.
🤔 The Motivation for a Third Book
The speaker discusses the reasons for writing a third book, which stem from an experience at a trading conference eight years prior. They were struck by the lack of knowledge among novice traders and realized that their previous books did not address the needs of those just starting in the business. This realization prompted the decision to write a new book aimed at this audience.
📉 The Challenge of Educating Novice Traders
The speaker reflects on the difficulty of teaching novice traders, who often have unrealistic expectations and a lack of understanding about the nature of trading and price movement. They emphasize the importance of changing one's mindset and assumptions about trading to achieve success, and the need to write a book that can guide these individuals from the ground up.
🎯 The Importance of Detachment in Trading
The speaker highlights the concept of detachment from outcomes as a key to successful trading. They contrast this with other professions where being attached to outcomes is essential. The speaker also discusses the difficulty of conveying this concept to traders and the challenge of writing a book that can effectively communicate the importance of this mindset.
📈 The Psychological Aspects of Trading
The speaker delves into the psychological skills necessary for successful trading, emphasizing that trading is not about physical skills but rather about how one interacts with information and maintains a positive state of mind. They discuss the importance of being in an elevated state of mind to trade successfully in the discretionary mode.
🧩 The Disconnect Between Analysis and Outcomes
The speaker explains the disconnect between analysis and the actual outcomes in trading. They argue that even with the best analysis, there is no way to predict or assure the outcome of a trade, making every trade a form of gambling. The speaker encourages traders to accept this risk and operate from a probabilistic perspective instead of trying to eliminate it.
🎲赌博元素与交易风险的接受
演讲者讨论了交易中固有的赌博元素,并强调了接受风险的重要性。他们指出,尽管分析可以提供优势,但无法消除交易的不确定性。演讲者鼓励交易者放弃消除风险的尝试,而是从概率的角度接受风险,以实现交易成功。
🎯 交易者的心理转变
演讲者强调,为了在交易中取得成功,交易者需要进行心理上的转变,接受风险并放弃对确定性的渴望。他们讨论了如何通过改变思维方式来克服恐惧,并指出大多数成功的交易者在经历了重大损失后才实现了这种转变。
📝 写作过程的挑战与自我发现
演讲者分享了他们在写作过程中遇到的挑战,包括如何将复杂的交易概念以易于理解的方式传达给读者。他们还透露了自己在写作上的个人挣扎,包括从未想过成为一名作家,却发现写作成为了他们生活的主要部分。
🤔 交易中的个人议程与自我意识
演讲者探讨了交易者在交易时可能带来的个人议程,以及这些议程如何影响交易决策。他们强调了在机械交易模式下,交易者更容易意识到自己的行为是否偏离了既定策略,而在自由裁量模式下,个人议程可能在不知不觉中影响交易结果。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Trading Psychology
💡Risk Management
💡Probabilistic Environment
💡Edge
💡Fear
💡State of Mind
💡Mechanical Trading
💡Discretionary Trading
💡Order Flow
💡Gambling Element
Highlights
The speaker is writing a third book to address the needs of novice traders, recognizing a gap in his previous works.
Eight years ago, the speaker was invited to speak at a large trading conference in Texas, which led to insights about the lack of ethics in the trading industry.
The speaker attended a user group meeting in Phoenix and was surprised by the enthusiasm for a company and the lack of knowledge about trading among attendees.
The speaker's coaching experience was primarily with professional traders and those at a point of desperation, with a gap in between.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of changing one's mindset and beliefs about trading to achieve success.
The speaker discusses the difference between mechanical and discretionary trading, highlighting the mental challenges of each.
The speaker explains the concept of a 'threshold of consistency' in trading, which is a mental state rather than a methodology.
The speaker shares his realization that his previous books may have been too advanced for novice traders and his intention to simplify concepts in his new book.
The speaker talks about the difficulty of teaching trading skills, emphasizing that it requires a different mindset from actually trading.
The speaker discusses the importance of understanding order flow and its impact on price movement for successful trading.
The speaker emphasizes that trading is a probabilistic environment where outcomes are not assured and analysis cannot eliminate risk.
The speaker explains that traders must be completely objective and detached from outcomes to be successful.
The speaker discusses the psychological aspect of trading, stating that fear and trust are opposites and that traders must trust themselves.
The speaker shares anecdotes from his personal trading experiences to illustrate the concepts he teaches.
The speaker talks about the process of writing his third book, the challenges he faces, and his aspirations outside of writing.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of accepting risk and not trying to eliminate it in trading.
Transcripts
[Music]
thank you
uh hi everybody good morning now that uh
John's put the pressure on uh that this
is supposed to be held um bear with me
because I haven't done one of these in
three years as a matter of fact the last
one I did was for John in April in
Chicago in 2012. so uh it might take me
so long to get going
so hopefully it'll be done but anyway
um
I like the way I want to start out is uh
by answering a question that a lot of
you guys not a lot of the few people
I've talked to yesterday and um and a
few people I talked to last night who
are asking me that uh I'm writing a
third book and I guess I should ask you
first have a lot of you read trading in
the zone with this one Trader
and so you're probably wondering well
why am I writing a third book right
would that something become your mind
okay like why am I doing that well okay
here's the reason why I'm doing it um
about uh eight years ago I was asked to
um speak at a at a trading conference
that was going to be quite large it
would be about five or six thousand
people were expected to attend the
conference it was going to be in Texas
and uh you know a few people have been
in this business for a while
you'll know that there's a lot of a lot
of people that um
just just aren't that ethical I mean
there's there's a lot of ways that
people can be taken advantage of in this
business and there's a lot of a lot of
people that understand that a lot of
people that exploit people who want to
become Traders and so as a result they
didn't want to be associated with
somebody or an organization that fell
into that category and I asked them to
and I know they had user groups all over
the country and so I asked them if I
could uh attend some of their user group
meetings to you know to see just how
well they lived up to their uh claims of
customer service and and the kind of
products that they offer and so they had
a pretty substantial User Group in the
Phoenix area and um and I attended there
were probably a little over 100 people
made 110 20 people and uh I was just
kind of taken back one I mean by
everyone was really enthused with this
company they really loved the product
they love the customer service that
they're providing and uh but the other
thing I was taken back by was just how
absolutely totally clueless they were
and um
because I was I was used to working I
started coaching and uh and really
around 1982 or 1983. and and most of the
people that I've worked with were uh
like Floor Traders you know the Chicago
Board of Trade Chicago Market Deal
Exchange and then later on a lot of
hedge fund managers and uh you know
people who fell into the category of
what I call Professional Traders I mean
people who are die-hard Traders and so
so basically my coaching client felt
kind of fell into two brought two
categories with nobody in between and
that I had the professionals people
who'd been in the business for a long
time and they understood just based on
their experience the importance of their
state of mind and their psychology
played on their results so there wasn't
any convincing them you know that this
is the direction they needed to go and
then at the other end of the extreme was
the person who had bit of the business
for probably quite a while lost usually
a lot of money you lost their account
several times and they're at the point
of what I call Total and complete
exasperation where you might wanna you
might want to think of someone um being
on an alcoholic bender and they wake up
with their head in the gutter a little
he's literally their head in the gutter
and they look up and they say Okay God
I'm ready I'll do anything and they mean
it it's not lip service it's not
they really mean it I'll do
anything and so I didn't have anybody in
between
because they didn't realize what they
were getting into okay so basically this
group of people in the user group
they're all these in-betweeners and not
only they were just in between there's
none of them were professionals
they were like you know just really what
I call nice people but not that not that
professional Traders can't be nice
people but they're breed apart they
really are they're uh uh I'm not gonna
get into that but any case uh
very different but um so I'm thinking
you know what I I have to write a book
for these people I just you know because
the discipline Trader and trading in the
zone did not really address the issues
in a way that someone's just starting
out in the business could relate to I've
made a lot of assumptions writing those
books I've made a lot of assumptions
based on my experiences of doing these
kind of presentations and speaking at
trading conferences back in the you know
in the early 80s like the first
conference I spoke at was in 1984 and
and I spoke at you know several years
later even when you know even went on a
world tour for Dow Jones in 1987. I
literally went around the world for Dow
Jones and write Reuters out of a 36 36
City Tour I could have done all 36
cities they didn't want to be gone that
long but I did 18 out of 36 cities and
went all the way around the world so you
know it's like I have you know I have
this basic experience so oh you know you
know the way people think about trading
but yet like I said I didn't write these
books in a way that that the novice
Trader could relate to and it shocked me
it literally shocked me because the
discipline Trader was published in 1990
and trading film was published in 2000
and when the internet started getting
big and you know you got a lot you had a
lot of people doing chat rooms all that
sort of stuff and and people were
recommending you know that hey retrading
in the zone and a lot of the people that
were that were reading it were just
novice Traders because I'm getting this
feedback and emails it's like well this
book wasn't meant for you and I didn't
even really know how you were relating
to it so I thought you know what I gotta
write another book I got to write it
from the perspective and I gotta write
it from the perspective uh of someone
who really doesn't know anything about
this business the people in that room in
Phoenix were people who basically had
watched like a half an hour infomercial
on on how trading how you can take
Financial control of your life by being
a Trader okay you know secure your
retirement go into trading okay with
this particular methodology you know and
you should be able to do it well the
reality of it is a lot of these
methodologies people aren't lying to you
about the fact that if if you can
actually follow the methodology you can
you can secure your financial future the
whole idea is being able to do it
because like for example the very first
Workshop that I ever attended was in
Bermuda like I think in 1981 and um
and at the time it was being put on by
three at that time you know people who
are considered Market gurus and uh you
know and at the very first morning of
the conference I mean I'm really excited
you know what am I going to learn or I
just can't wait and and uh you know I
sit down in the room and the speaker you
know he gets going and he's going for
about 10 minutes and uh someone in the
audience raises their hand and he stood
up and his guy that got to stick his
name and and he stood up as a matter of
fact it was Dick Bernstein he's probably
he's a lot of vulture probably heard of
them anyway uh so Jake acknowledges the
guy in the audience and the guy stood up
and and he said uh and the speakers of
course we're talking to talk about their
trading systems and and how people use
them that sort of thing and uh the guy
stood up and and kind of an indignant
tone who surprised me and I think it
also surprised Jake he said Jake your
system's so goodbye you're selling it
and you know I think the whole thing
kind of took Jake by surprise like I
said and Jake's just stood there and
thought for a second he said you know
what hostiles minimum if you want to buy
because of all the 100 so people in this
room there probably doesn't want to be
that could go back and execute it
now I'm sitting here listening to this I
think you know you know he didn't he he
didn't say this in a way that I thought
he was kidding you know so you know I'm
thinking what's going on here and nobody
asked him to elaborate so it's like you
know it's like I'm just hoping this
didn't apply to me okay I'm just like
you know I don't know what he's saying I
don't know why he's saying it I just
hope it isn't me he's talking about okay
and it was of course it was you know it
was definitely me as possible as well as
everyone else in the world
so um anyway like I said I I really
felt I had to write something from
ground zero in other words if you don't
know anything about this business if you
don't know anything about the nature
Trading and especially if you don't know
anything about the nature of price
movement
that you can actually go through
understand what you need to go through
and go through a process of changing the
way that you think because this is what
this is all about everybody
you're gonna have to get used to the
idea that if you're going to do this
successfully you are probably going to
have to change some major assumptions
some major beliefs you have about that
nature market trading to do it
successfully I'm not saying you're not
going to have winning trades
I'm saying that if you want to create a
consistently Rising Equity curve and
assure yourself of an income you're
going to have to think differently than
what you think right now there's no way
around it
like for example most of you in this
room just real just quick example mostly
in this room would think that because
I'm a Trader and because I put on trades
I'm a risk taker
that makes sense because we know the
trading is risky right
come on dude I'm gonna have to get some
feedback guys okay you're good you can't
you can't sit there with Stone Face no
you really can't
seriously you can but it's going to make
things hard for me I don't want to be
hard but I want to join myself okay so
come on just give me some feedback yes
or no yeah okay thank you
[Laughter]
I haven't done this in three years so
give me a break I'm asking you next so
yeah we're Risk Takers right and yet
when you think about it everything that
you do or let's say I used to do
as a Trader with respect to analysis was
to try to eliminate the risk
who's to try to make the risk go away
was to try to make sure that the trade
I'm getting into right now this trade
was going to be a winner
that may be a winner
but going to be a winner why would I do
it why would I get into a trade-off I
didn't think it was going to win
does that make sense to everybody is
that the kind of logic that makes sense
that's exactly the kind of logic that's
going to make sure you're not going to
be successful in this business
it's exactly the kind of logic that is
going to be going to assure you that you
will not make it in this business
this business has nothing to do with
winning on a trade by trade basis on a
trade by trade basis what you're going
to learn today is that your Technical
Systems okay what they give you is an
edge everyone you heard the word
probability said a hundred times
probabilities edges edges nothing more
than than a higher probability of one
thing happening over another there's a
huge difference between understanding
that concept and actually believing it
in a way that you can execute your
trades properly
you actually have to believe in the
nature of probabilities at the very core
of your trading personality
which means you're going to have to give
up on the idea that each individual
trade is going to be successful
what your system does is give you an
edge over a series of Trades
where the outcome of each individual
trade is unknown and unknowable
not just unknown unknowable
the more you think you got to know in
this business the less successful you're
going to be this isn't a business about
knowing what's going to happen next it's
a business of getting your mind to the
point where you're completely detached
from your outcomes
very different than the way we live our
lives
I was talking to Gino last night what
did you Gino's been an attorney for how
many years 43 years what what did you
learn
when you became a Trader relationship to
the kind of strategies that you worked
that you used as a Trader every
do you hear what he said everything he
used to be a successful lawyer is
completely opposite of the strategies
and the thinking methodologies that we
have to use to be Traders
if I'm a lawyer if I detached for my
outcome
yeah you are yeah if I'm a lawyer am I
detached from My outcome oh no no no am
I if I'm a lawyer my detached for my
outcome absolutely not I'm going to make
sure that I get the outcome I want if
I'm a doctor am I detached from My
outcome if I'm an engineer am I detach
from My outcome
so if I'm saying to you to be successful
in this business you're going to have to
become detached from your outcomes just
how in the world you're going to get to
the point where you can do that
you don't know I I you're right you
probably don't
hmm
thank you
trade for somebody else that's that that
not everybody you know they're the group
following the people that can trade for
somebody else and be detached and trade
for somebody else and actually they're
even more attached than what they would
be normally I've worked with with both
ways there are people who can actually
trade their own money once they learn
the right methodology the right mindset
they can trade their own money much
easier than they can trade somebody
else's
because they're more concerned about you
know losing money for other people
so somebody was good still there's a lot
of variables in there
have a boat yeah yeah that's you know so
so basically yeah I had to write this
book from like I said from the
perspective of going from the ground up
and having two books under my belt which
I thought were really tough books to
write I mean I'm not you know they were
very very difficult for me to write and
um
uh I'm thinking you know and here this
is my own bias that I'm going into this
this whole project with like okay you
know I've got I wrote the decimal Trader
took me eight years I was trading a Zone
took me five years you know come on I
should be able to knock this out a
couple years right anybody get right to
be able to knock this out in a couple of
years yeah eight years I'm still not
done
way harder than Trading Zone way over
the top part of them trading The Zone on
the distal Trader I just I can't even
begin to tell you how difficult to spend
and how challenging it's been for me and
and how just just the impact that it's
had on my life even it's really been
very very difficult but in any case
um I found that breaking these Concepts
down to a core level where someone who
doesn't know the business can understand
it
it's not easy and I made a lot in over
the years I you know doing presentations
I've made a lot of assumptions see it's
one thing to know how to trace it can
break through a certain certain what I
call the threshold of consistency you
know like if this if over here this is
like a mental threshold okay like if
you're down here and you're booming and
busting okay your Equity is you know you
go up you go down and go up go down and
you want an equity curve it looks like
this you're gonna have to break through
what I call the threshold of consistency
and this is a mindset it has nothing to
do with your methodology I say nothing
but you're gonna have to have a good
Edge all I'm saying is that but there
are a lot of good edges out there okay
but so so this is a mindset
yeah yeah but breaking breaking breaking
these Concepts down in in that way was
just you know I I made a lot of
assumptions and breaking through my own
assumptions was was really a difficult
process you know because because yeah
what I was getting at is that that it's
one thing to to learn how to trade for
yourself and however however however way
you manage to break through this special
of consistency it's another to actually
learn how to teach people how to do it
the process of doing it and teaching
people how to do it are rules apart
there's almost no connection
there's almost no connection at all
because there are a lot of people who
teach trading because they become
successful Traders legitimately
successful Traders and they teach it
from their perspective
without realizing that Their audience is
nowhere near their mindset and and and
cannot cannot do what they do well I was
you know coaching in the early you know
the mid 80s mid 80s to early 90s you
know they're I'm not going to mention
names but there are some you know
trading gurus out there that had huge
followings and uh you know brilliant
people very successful Traders but
absolutely did not know how to teach it
did not know how to understand you know
where where the common guy was coming
from and most of most of uh you know
like like really serious suicidal
clients were as a result of listening to
these people you know the ones that
ended up you know waking up and I got to
say oh my God you know I'll do anything
just because you know how to teach it
that's all and and because the process
of learning how to teach it is just not
is completely different than the process
of learning how to do it so like I said
I made assumptions and those assumptions
uh resulted in
um
you know making it really difficult for
people reading the discipline trainer
and training in the zone to get what
they needed out of it to break through
this threshold of consistency
and I didn't really know that until you
know I got almost to the end of the book
where you know
and it's like the exercise and training
in the zone
you know when I finished that book in
like 1999 it's like I thought I thought
I explained it I really did I thought I
explained it I'm going to apologize to
now realizing that I didn't
I I really didn't explain it because in
this new book I've devoted 30 single
single space typewritten pages to just
the exercise
because what I because the big
assumption that I made was that all the
all the background all the all the
wrote to to uh as Foundation to do the
exercise that somehow people would find
a way to assimilate it and realize their
connection on their own
and then when I started actually getting
to the point where I had to write about
the exercise I realized that that just
wasn't that wasn't going to happen and
the reason the reason why I I know it
didn't happen is because I would do
presentations and um
well like for example in 2008 2009 2010
whatever and like because I did several
for John in a row like you know where I
did like I said 8 9 10 11 and 12. last
night it was in 2012. and so like in
2010 I go through the whole presentation
you know and and uh you know and
explained what I felt people needed to
get and and the exercise itself but
pretty much explained it was in the
context of trading in the zone and uh
and then the next year you know some
people would you know a lot of the same
people if there's 100 people in the room
but there's a percentage of them that
were there the year before and it's like
how many of you did the exercise no
money
not only that I was wondering you know
like okay everyone in the audience
pretty much let's say the large
percentage of people in the United
trading in the zone and right off the
bat I mean I say okay you've read
trading The Zone A lot of people said
they ran it multiple times so I'm
thinking how many did the exercise
nobody
and it's like so in so in 2011
uh we're going through this this is
mystified me now I was truly perplexed I
really was I did not get it I really
didn't get it
and uh so in 2011 somebody in the
audience just happened to say after
closing getting to the point where the
presentation is is you know is completed
there just as much time as we have and
uh someone said well how many of how
many views how many of us do you think
are going to do the exercise and I said
nobody
they're all taken back by that you know
because I was just flat out none of you
are going to do it and um and then the
next year in 2012 there were a few
people that actually did it and they got
the results that that they were looking
for
now we're going to talk about this we're
going to talk about a great way mostly
tomorrow but it's like you know I want
you you know I want you to leave
understanding the process understanding
what it is that you have to do and the
process is you're going to have to go
through
to get to the point where you can where
you can acquire the kind of
psychological skills because because all
the skills there isn't anything about
trading that's physical
what are you interacting with you're
interacting with information
there isn't anything physical other than
just you know if you've got the ability
to uh you use your mouse pad or use a
mouse you've got the eye hand
coordination to put your mouse in a
certain spot on your training platform
you got the skills down pat
your your golden on the skills
the physical skills it's mental skills
it's how we interact with information
the state of mind that we're in
people don't realize that you know that
this is this is like a a to really do
training at a really high level in what
I call the subjective or the
discretionary mode as opposed to
Mechanical trading where you've got a a
particular set of of criteria that
Define your entry and exit and it's
rigid so the market has to conform the
market has to conform to your rules or
you do nothing okay that's I'm just
gonna curse I give you a curse
explanation in the mechanical mode the
market has to conform to your entry and
exit rules or you do nothing there's
nothing to do there's nothing to think
about
you're just supposed to do you know
enter when it says put your stock where
it says put your objective where it says
and either happens or it doesn't okay
in the subjective mode basically
discretionary mode you can do whatever
you want whenever you want based on
whatever information you expose yourself
to and the way you want to combine that
information in your brain to come up
with an entry or extra signal and where
to put your stop and where to put your
profit objective
to be in that mode and do it
successfully you better be in a real
high a real like elevated State of Mind
because what you're going to find is
that it's your attitude
it's a quality of State of Mind like are
you confident are you fearful are you in
a Carefree State of Mind are you
agitated are you angry
you feel like you know you feel like
like getting revenge if you're going
through personal emotional trauma if
someone said you know if someone you
knew was trading was a full-time Trader
and they're going through a a real
traumatic experience in their life
would you advise them not to trade
makes sense right just makes sense
and yet what people don't realize is
that there are degrees of states of Mind
in other words you've got on a Continuum
at one end you've got you know got
positive You've Got Confidence okay you
got confidence and here you got fear and
there are degrees of confidence and fear
and until you become aware of where
you're at on that continuum
you have to adjust the way you trade
based on your awareness of where your
state of mind is
because your results are going to
reflect that the way you pick the what
information you pick or you choose to uh
uh to to utilize and where you where you
where your trade location your size your
stock your objective all gonna be
reflected in your state of mind
[Music]
it would be I'll give you an example you
got you got you you may have just had
the NCAA uh uh uh you know college
basketball championship right okay now
you got now you now you know if I said
that that in a professional or even a
college level that that some of these
kids or some of these guys they can hit
25 or 50 free throws in a row would
anybody dispute that
that they can practice they practice
thousands of shots and they get at the
free throw line while they're in
practice and just and hit 25 in a row 30
in a row there are people who can do
that
so so if you can do that you have got
your muscle memory in place your muscles
are chained to the foot like as if
you're like there's little these little
memory cells in each of our muscles it's
like they're completely in place so that
you know and you step all the all the
physical variables are exactly the same
no matter where you're doing it the file
line is right here the basket so many
feet away the basket's a certain height
the rim is a certain diameter that's it
all the variables are the same
now pull one of these kids who can do 25
in a row in a situation where there's
about two seconds left in the game the
national championships on the line and
with uh two shots he can win the game
with one shot he can tie
two shots he can win the game for
himself his college you know all the
fans and his team one shot he ties what
is going to be the determining Factor as
whether or not he wins that game
well we stay controlled out there you
might not have any fear and say what's
going to be just at a gentle level
what's going to be the determining
Factor but mental state of mind yeah
it's State of Mind why do you think you
know everyone knows what like for
example field goal kickers who are in a
position where they can kick a field
goal and win the game the opposing coach
call the time out they put him on Ice
okay what does putting them on ice mean
it means you know what these guys are
Pros you give them the opportunity to
get up to that t and kick the ball
without thinking their muscle memory is
going to come in to come into play and
this is going to it's going to be
automatic now give the guy the
opportunity to start rolling some
negative thoughts through his brain and
he might choke
same thing with the kid on the bow line
if he can keep his thoughts positively
focused on the process of doing what he
needs to do he'll probably make both
shots
if he starts thinking how his life's
going to go to complete and
absolute if he misses those shots
chances are he's going to miss him
if if if some thoughts start rolling
through his brains you through his brain
about coaches who have berated him
parents who would berated him throughout
his life and being in these kinds of
situations chances are he's going to
miss those shots and choke
and this will go right along here here
we had just normal confidence this is
what's called a threshold of euphoria
okay you could cross from normal
confidence into a threshold of euphoria
which is just as bad as being a state of
fear for a traitor but same way with
this kid
let's say he's standing at the foul line
and he's starting to think about what a
hero he's going to be in a couple of
seconds
and he starts celebrating in his brain
before he actually takes the shots
that extra degree of excitement just
might have enough of an impact on the
way the ball leaves his fingers for him
to miss the shots
so it can't be too much it can't be
fearful he just has to have the right
amount of confidence flowing through his
brain at the right amount and be focused
in just the right way before he actually
before the ball leaves his fingers and
he'll like the shot because the muscle
memory is there
anybody anybody have a problem with this
when we're trading in the discretionary
mode these are the things we've got to
be aware of we're interacting with
information
it's like like the it's like the analogy
would be the kid's muscle memory to
shoot the free throw would be our memory
of all the different patterns we've
learned about how to define an edge
the patterns are in our brain we can we
can we can identify them when we see
them in the market
how we utilize those patterns are going
to be a function of the state of mind
that we're in
now you don't have to get to that level
of awareness to be a successful Trader
if you stay in the mechanical mode
in other words once you learn one how to
how to identify an edge you learn how to
think in probabilities you get rid of
the what I'm going to just refer to as
the four primary training fears the fear
of being wrong the fear of losing money
the fear of missing out a little fear of
leaving money on the table when you
neutralize those four fears and you can
trade in a Carefree State of Mind
Carefree detached State of Mind
you can stay in the mechanical mode for
the your whole training career and and
don't really have to address a lot of
these State of Mind issues not that they
won't come into play
not that they will come into play
because they will if they're there they
will but at least in the mechanical mode
you know exactly what you need to do and
when you need to do it so any any
thought of deviating from that you know
there's a problem
I'm gonna go into office details I'm
just giving you an overview here okay so
don't get too don't get too perplexed go
ahead
they're being wrong uh the fear of uh
losing missing out leaving money on the
table
foreign
level of awareness to be able to be
successful but you better be at that
heightened level of awareness if you
don't want to create disastrous results
in subjective mode most people are
trading outside their skill level
meaning they should be trading
mechanically and they're trading
subjectively they're trading especially
into discretionary mode and they have
nowhere near the skills to be able to do
it
because in that mode you can do whatever
you want see in the mechanical mode I
would say you wouldn't even to think
about pulling a stop even to think about
moving a stop as a trading error
in the subjective discretionary mode you
want to stop moving you want to pull
stop pull it because the assumption is
you you don't you're not doing it from a
state of fear
you're not doing it because of you know
what what you're afraid of the results
are you're doing it because that's what
you that's what the Market's telling you
to do in this moment based on your
ability to read the market from an
objective perspective
because every mistake just about every
mistake that you can make as a Trader
will be the result of
I'm afraid of being wrong I'm afraid of
losing money I'm afraid of missing out
I'm afraid of leaving money on the table
you're going to get into soon
you're going to get in too late
you're not going to Define your risk
because you're thinking hey why'd you
find the risk I know we can get in this
trade and I think it's gonna be a winner
so there is no risk
yeah okay yeah
or or you say you know you read all the
books and you go to the conference and
say hey don't do this without free
without determining what your risk is
before you get into a trade and so you
think okay well I've gotta you know well
everyone says I got to do it so I'll do
it so basically it's lip service lip
service in the sense okay you'll put a
stop in the market and that's where
usually people use percentage stops as
opposed to scroll what I call structure
stops structure stops are where you're
actually reading the market in a way
where you know where's the best place on
the structure perspective that tells you
this trade isn't working or the
likelihood of it working is so
diminished in relationship to the profit
objective it's not worth staying in
anymore did you guys get what I just
said okay that's a structure stop when
you pick an arbitrary percentage stop
like one or two percent that's people
that do that usually do it that's risk
that's a lift service risk management
they don't really don't believe they're
going to get stopped out but they're
they're you know they've been told over
and over again you gotta you got to do
something like that and so they put
their percentage stop in the market and
thinking well it's never going to get
hit anyway
and of course when it starts to you know
it starts to look like it's going to get
hit they'll either pull it and you know
put somewhere else or if they're coming
out of a state of basically paying
really lost three or four trades in a
row you know if it starts even getting
close they'll pull up thinking you know
I want to save myself some money
nobody in this room's done that but oh
okay yeah yeah today yeah right
it could be anything yes instructor
stock could be because the question is
is a structure stop like a two bar stop
the instructor stop is based on on your
definition of an edge we have edges for
getting in we have that just for getting
out whether it's it where the edge is
defined as a profit objective or a place
where where the Market's telling us that
the likelihood of this trade not working
is so great it's not worth spending any
more money on or not or not worth uh the
likelihood of even hitting the profit
objective is so diminished that it's not
worth spending any more money on
go ahead
no not this business zero fear
absolutely zero fear
absolutely zero I want to be emphatic
about that I don't no there is no no
absolutely zero fear you have got to try
this good question thank you very much
you don't got to trust yourself because
what you're going to find when I get
into this example is that that fear acts
on a perception of information in a way
that we actually create the very
experience we're trying to avoid
okay I'm gonna I'm gonna explain that
how that works but fear will act on our
perception of information how we
perceive it the way we feel through the
information and how we behave in a way
where we will actually create the very
experience we're trying to avoid so if
I'm trying to avoid being wrong that's
exactly what I'm going to end up doing
I'm going to I'm going to act and see
things in a way that create a situation
where I end up being wrong if I'm afraid
of losing money that's exactly what I'm
going to create for myself zero fear not
only that you have to it because fear
and Trust are are uh opposite of each
other you've got to be able to trust
yourself you have to be able to
completely and absolutely trust yourself
that you can do act in your own best
interests and do the right thing without
experiencing pain first
foreign how can you be successful in
this business if you have to experience
pain to get out of a losing trade
that if it takes that much in other
words the market has to go so far
against us that we can't stand it
anymore that we eventually get out
go ahead
no no anxiety no fear no completely
Carefree state of mind you're gonna have
to get to the point where you're going
to completely objective Carefree State
of Mind you cannot care about the
outcome remember I started it wasn't
even that long ago detached from the
outcome
you got to get your expectations in line
with the reality of the environment
you're operating in you are operating in
a probabilistic environment
that really means not lip service that
really means probabilistic maybe maybe
maybe I'm going to get the outcome that
might that my Edge says oh my Edge is
predicting will happen maybe I'm going
to prove this to you
he said one of the reasons why I've
built this third book is because because
I came to the realization that that my
personal experiences as a Trader
starting out I started trading in 1978.
so my personal experience as a Trader
and then going to work for Merrill Lynch
at the Chicago Board of Trade as a
retail broker you know it's like it's
like I ended up learning things about
how the market works that ordinarily
without being on the inside of the
industry people just wouldn't get so I
also took that for granted and what
people don't get is how is when they
don't understand order flow when they
don't really understand the nature of
overflow and how prices move from an
order flow perspective it's very hard to
learn how to think how to it's very hard
it'd be very hard to let's say
extrapolate what you know watching
prices move on a screen in a way where
you could think you know well I need to
think like this I need to think like
this
Tony don't when you don't understand
order flow that that really screws you
up because when you really do everything
that I'm saying will become self-evident
when you understand order flow all the
things that I'm saying will just like
yeah okay yeah that makes sense
so if I say to you that if you operate
you've got to get your expectations in
line with the reality of the environment
that you're operating in that means you
don't know what your outcomes are going
to be
there's no way you can know what your
outcomes are going to be I'm also going
to say that you don't also know why
you're winning or losing when you
understand order flow you will know that
there is no way that you can know why
you're winning or losing or even find
out
think about that one for a second
you don't know why you're winning or
losing and there's no way to find out
do you understand how prices move to the
extent where you can you can think
yourself yeah okay that makes sense to
me
I'll explain it to you it doesn't make
sense now
and the implications of what I just said
is that every prediction your
methodology makes and in essence is a
guess
and if it's a guess the implications are
guess what you're gambling
what's that
if you're guessing you're gambling
that is the reality of our situation we
have no assured outcomes and we cannot
make a connection between the reasons
why we put on a trade and the reasons
why the market went into our winning our
favor or went against us if we can't
make that connection then we don't know
why we're winning or losing and it isn't
any different and sitting down on the
Black Death table or playing a slot
machine because there's no way to know
we are gambling regardless of the fact
that you're using analysis regardless of
how good your analysis is I don't care
how sophisticated it is there is no
analysis that can take the gambling
element out of trading this debate there
is no analysis that can take the
gambling element out of trading there
was no analysis that can eliminate the
risk there's no analysis that can say
assure us that this trade is going to be
a winner
when you understand overflow you will
agree with what I'm saying
and then you'll start thinking about
this whole thing differently so instead
of trying to avoid the risk instead of
trying to use your analysis to avoid the
unavoidable
to do the impossible you will accept the
risk
and understand it from a probabilistic
perspective
and then Everything Will Change
Everything Will Change you'll even see a
different Market you'll see the same
bars but you'll be interpreting it in a
way where it's like oh yeah okay that
makes sense yeah
it's like one more one second it's like
it's like we're here in Las Vegas
how did Christina you heard John say or
somebody maybe yesterday or I think
somebody said you know uh about even
trading his own it's like you know like
be the casino well here's what this
means
like with casinos know that they have
the law of probabilities working in
their favor the law of probability is
like magic
see the casinos really aren't gambling
because they are gambling in one sense
and gambling from one perspective but
not in another on an event by event
basis you know this Blackjack hand this
Blackjack hand this black every
individual hand that's dealt they don't
know the outcome to and in essence
they're gambling on the outcome of each
individual hand
but since they have the law of
probabilities working in their favor
what that means is that over a large
series of events they will always come
out net winners
so in essence they're not gambling
we can do the same thing as Traders
exact same thing
we have an edge
our Edge gives us a higher probability
of one thing happening over another over
a series of Trades
but each individual trade the outcome is
not known nor nullable
all I have to do is execute that edge
flawlessly every time and I will come
out in that winner and in essence over a
series of Trades I'm not gambling
on each individual trade I am
are you guys with me on this I'll
explain in more detail later on
there is nothing you can do to take away
the risk burn that in your brain there's
nothing you can do to take away the risk
any effort that you put towards taking
away the risk is going to assure you are
failing
to another degree you're going to try to
take away the risk of being wrong the
risk of losing money the risk of being
leaving money on the table or risk of
missing out all these four fears will
detract from your ability to create a
consistently Rising Equity curve and
cause you to make mistakes
okay who had a question back again
well I don't know how you define a good
poker players I have to know how you
define a phone I don't know how you
define a good poker player so if you
heard me to answer that question yeah
what's that well yeah see winning
winning one night or you know and
getting on getting on a winning streak
is different than someone who can
someone who can gamble and make
consistent income you know people people
who can make consistent income gambling
you know work basically about the same
kind of mindset and they also there's a
lot of other a lot of other variables
involved It's like because like people
who are you know are immersed in
gambling I mean you know there's a lot
of Dynamics in play that are you know
not so much different from psychological
perspective but for example if if and I
don't gamble I mean I don't I don't you
know I don't play black deck anymore or
anything else like that but anyway
um if it's like if I were what I would
do the first thing I would do is I'd
walk through a casino and I try to find
I try to find a dealer who's having a
bad night in other words a dealer who's
busting on a consistent basis you know
or if I was playing craps I would I
would peruse the tables until I found
somebody who's hot with the dice because
I do believe in streaks I believe in
winning and losing streaks and if you
can you know and if I'm playing my cards
right you know if I've got a basic
strategy and how I'm going to play my
cards or or how I'm going to bet at
craps uh what I'm going to want to do is
I'm going to want to you know find
somebody who's already on a streak or
looks like they're gonna be out of
streak
in what way
if we hold on we could if we could put
the coin a thousand times in a row okay
we would come up with a pattern a
discernible pattern where there would be
very little difference between heads and
tales if the coin is evenly weighted
right this is the pattern that would
that would come up over and over and
over again you could actually bet on it
you could actually bet on the fact that
I flipped the coin enough times like a
thousand a thousand flips that that the
uh that the relationship between heads
and tails would be within a percent
right let's see but within that thousand
foot sequence can you have winning you
can have heads could test them up 10
times in a row
yeah okay
I didn't say it was predictive well I
would say what I'm saying is I'm just
looking for people I'm looking for
situations where it's likely that this
is what if someone's on a winning streak
not a winning streak I don't know how
long it's going to last or why I don't
care I'm just looking for I'm looking
for engines that's all I'm saying look
so the answer is question about gambling
it's not a good correlation because
there's too many other factors involved
so
but otherwise I'm just looking for that
kind of edge
go ahead
yeah I will you know now that the whole
rest of the time is going to be pretty
much elaborating on it
when I say become you see you you say be
comfortable I say that that you accept
the risk at such a core level of your
trading personality of your trading
belief system that there is no other
part of your mental environment that
would argue for anything different in
other words what what I mean is that
when you've accepted that that I could
put this trade on I do not know what the
outcome is going to be I don't care what
the outcome is going to be because I've
adopted I've adopted a series of Trades
perspective meaning that that I don't
know what I want to basically what am I
expecting I'm expecting wins and losses
over a series of Trades and I don't know
the sequence of wins and losses but I do
know that my Edge in the past has
produced let's say a 60 win loss ratio
or a 70 win loss ratio again I don't
know what the sequence the wins and
losses are and I don't care I just need
to execute properly and when I get to
the point where I really have accepted
these principles accepted them at the
very core of my being I will be able to
do this without fear I'm going to show
you how to do it tomorrow but what I'm
saying is that this is where we're
getting to we're getting to the point
where if you're going to do this right
you gotta you gotta transcend your fears
and to transcend your fears you're gonna
have to learn how to think differently
it's that simple if you're not willing
to learn how to think differently you
might as well walk out of the room now
it's not going to happen for you it
really isn't go ahead if there's enough
there's enough back case of of of people
who've been in this business for years
who have lost one or more fortunes well
they have lost one or more fortunes
until they get to the point where they
come to the realization that you know
what my strength My Life Strategies
don't work in this business
why do you think there's a there's this
theme and all you know all you know
really good Traders this theme that that
most of them had lost one or more
fortunes before they finally broke
through the threshold of being able to
create consistent results because that's
what it took it took losing all that
money to break down the resistance of
their their dysfunctional beliefs about
the nature of this business or their
erroneous assumptions about what this is
about and most those harmonious
assumptions have to do with analysis
which is which is normal because when
you think about the way we Define
analysis in our normal everyday life if
I step into and engage in an analytical
process
and and I and I really believe that that
process has validity
then when I come to a conclusion I
should think that I'm going to get the
outcome I expect
wrong in trading that's not the case
you don't open up a trading account at a
brokerage firm and they tell you that
you know what whatever you think the way
you define analysis doesn't work here
does not work
you're only using analysis to get an
edge and an edge is a higher probability
one thing happening over another and if
there's no way to assure myself that
this trade I'm going to get into is a
winner I'm guessing and if I'm guessing
I'm gambling they tell you that anybody
ever tell you that
John's a good guy
okay I'm sorry
[Music]
no you're not no no yes because no
you're never eliminating the risk you're
accepting it you're never eliminating it
there's nothing just you have to get to
the point where you're just like I said
there's no question in your mind that
the risk always exists now there's when
you say eliminating risk like my scale I
got a pro yeah but see there's a
difference between between what you say
is reducing risk on money management
perspective and actually accepting the
risk when you reduce risk on money
management perspectives because the
Market's telling you we the one that's
that's your strategy okay and two of the
markets saying this is a good place to
take some profits that has nothing to do
I mean you can say the vernacular is you
can say yes I'm reducing risk but that's
not what I'm talking about I'm talking
about from a psychological perspective
actually accepting the risk okay
so that that yeah yeah there's a
difference but these are subtle
differences and this is the kind of
thing that gets us in trouble see what
we don't understand these subtleties we
give them a lot of trouble go ahead
do I what
no I actually I really don't just resist
so uh I I have been trading a long time
you know I as a matter of fact I turned
my training but I use trade station I
turn my trading platform off really just
about three years ago right around this
time thinking that you know what I don't
want to be distracted with the market
I'm going to be done in three months
yeah I'm still like that and I haven't
turned it back on so uh I don't even
watch markets right now anyway
yeah as a matter of just to tell you
what just maybe maybe I shouldn't say I
don't I'm not saying anyone uh
I'll give you an example of what I'm
talking about where I'm at right now in
the book is is is uh the last chapter
and I'm actually writing about
subjective discretionary trading
um it's taking taking me like 26 27 days
just to get the first three paragraphs
are you what's the name I know you're
gonna ask I've got about 20 names when
I'm done I'll pick one okay when the
name comes I write it down and if I can
find the file because I didn't follow
the name in a long time I'm gonna have
to explain the class who's like
thousands of files but anyway uh yeah
it's like and when I say I worked it's
not like I have been writing I've got
pages and pages and Pages it's just that
it's just that the words have to be come
together in just the right way for
people to really get it and it's like
and it's not until it resonates you know
it resonates with me that yeah okay the
I've got the suitcase sequence of the
words just right and like I said the 25
26 days just to get just to get three
paragraphs
and if you asked me a month ago I'd have
said hey I I'm almost done with it I'll
be done in a few days
[Music]
it will really scares me is the next
part is intuitive now I've already got a
lot of stuff on intuitive written so all
I gotta do is find it but then again one
no seriously I'm not kidding because I
written it years ago so you know it's
not you know I'm gonna have to find what
I've read I'll find it I mean it's not
like it's lost but you know I don't want
to get into it anyway so where are we
yeah right no exactly and so you know
yeah it's my own problems with the whole
writing process of you know creates all
the difficulty to get right down to it I
never you know because I never I didn't
go up to be asked
with aspiration of being a writer do you
really or an author or have any idea
what that was like or here I'm almost
finished my third book spent most of my
adult life writing books and I'm like ah
you know I was like
I just wanted to be a professional
hockey player I said I'm not kidding you
know I'm really not because I grew up in
the in the 60s or in the 50s you know
and uh you know because I'm 66 years old
so it's like I grew up in the 50s and
back then there were only six NHL teams
and there and everyone there weren't any
American players any American hockey
players in the NHL there wasn't that one
American hockey player in the NHL so my
chance of becoming a personal hockey
player was Zero but while all I'm saying
is that my aspirations would be were to
be a parental hockey player that's what
the end to be a writer and it's like
come on I used to I did this honestly
got true when uh the term I went to
Michigan State and the tournament start
and I go into a class and the professor
said uh we're gonna have a term paper
I'm out go my advisor throughout the
class writing forget it I just I you
know I avoided writing at all costs now
I know why my life purpose was to be a
devoted as a writer and I was just
avoiding what I was going to end up
doing I didn't know why started back you
know when I started when I'm in my late
teens and early 20s I'm gonna end up
spending my whole life doing it you know
but anyway go ahead
you know what there's these are all
personal individual variables and it
could be it could be any anything I mean
just even is John here John okay we were
talking last night you know in the
cocktail thing and uh and John brought
up that um he made a connection you want
the connection about uh being a hero
um
yeah when you're on the other side of
that yeah when you're on the other side
of it yeah
and then
the logical explanation in my mind was
wasability
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real estate
and they're like all right so obviously
the market company so now you know from
10 to 100 and now I was working in the
book school okay so now who's open 100
in a million and in my mind it was
really it was like a big pick and I'm
like that's fine the freedom that's I
can quit my job
right and so we go along your first time
will be worse
skin this is like in 1995 Magnus is down
here in uh in the markets there and then
at one point the premium dropped
and from the end of the day and if
you've got like 100.
I love myself
all right honestly
okay
okay
so this product is going to work when we
come back down with a half a gap built
which is
foreign
[Music]
[Music]
[Music]
I don't know
wow
worse than I thought
well you know what I want you to get to
though okay okay yeah
is that there was something
naturally below it to be able to
Survivor and somehow I was
questions
every day
house
but what if I realized
so that's you know that goes into it you
know it's kind of hard to be like you
know it's most things
you know you know yes that's what
happened but I'm like what's up everyone
it's not happening yeah I think that's
exactly what I wanted I wanted he was he
was applying his own agenda in other
words he had another agenda other than
just being a successful Trader
so that's why I couldn't answer your
question about you know well what's
happening with with people because
because there's all kinds of agendas
that we have
and when we trade in mechanical mode
it's it's at least a lot easier to be
successful until because we know exactly
what we need to do when do we need to do
it any deviation we're making a trading
error in the discretionary mode there's
no such thing as a trading error did you
do anything you want but then what you
have is you have all these personal
agendas that can really start to assert
themselves
you can have personal agendas asserting
themselves when you're in mechanical
mode but again at least you know
something is going on because I'm not
executing properly I want to make it I'm
doing I'm about ready to do something
that that is defined explicitly as an
error
and so at least if you've got enough
presence of mind to say you know what
I'm going to step through that that
compulsive behavior and do what I need
to do anyway
you'll be all right
but when you're in the discretionary
mode these agendas kind of certain
themselves in a way that unless you have
a really high level of awareness you
don't even know what's going on
making sense
okay that was the case that was the like
the introduction
as a matter of fact you know what before
I get going again why don't we take a
five minute break of breath and break is
that all right
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