SIPRI Reflection: Climate change, peace and security

Summary

This transcript highlights the growing connection between climate change and global conflict, emphasizing the real-time security risks it poses to both local and international communities. It discusses the direct impact of climate change on resources like water, food, and infrastructure, and the increasing migration due to environmental degradation. Experts stress the importance of understanding the various forms of security risks and the need for collaboration across sectors, including peacebuilding, environmental, and policy communities. The speaker emphasizes the necessity of robust governance institutions to manage these changes and prevent chaos and violence.

Takeaways

• 😀 Climate change is increasingly affecting human habitats, leading to instability and conflict across various regions, including the Middle East, West Africa, and parts of Asia.
• 😀 The connection between climate change and conflict is visible in both high-profile and localized conflicts, such as those in the Horn of Africa and parts of South and Southeast Asia.
• 😀 Climate change is not just a future risk, but a present and ongoing issue that is already contributing to instability and conflict.
• 😀 The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C, but we are already dangerously close to this threshold, particularly in Africa and Asia.
• 😀 By the middle of this century, many regions in Africa and Asia will face severe water insecurity, even in areas that currently have ample water resources.
• 😀 Climate change poses multiple security risks, impacting food, water, shelter, health, infrastructure, and migration, particularly due to coastal degradation and resource scarcity.
• 😀 The effects of climate change are both sudden (extreme weather events) and gradual (long-term shifts in food production and freshwater supply).
• 😀 Transnational effects of climate change are some of the most difficult to understand and manage, requiring cross-border cooperation and knowledge-sharing.
• 😀 Three main areas of focus are necessary to address the security risks of climate change: improving understanding, analyzing policies and responses, and supporting better governance.
• 😀 Bridging the gaps between different sectors, such as peacebuilding, conflict resolution, and environmental management, is essential for effectively addressing climate-related security risks.
• 😀 Effective governance institutions are critical for managing the impacts of climate change; without them, the social and political landscape may become chaotic and conflictual, further threatening peace.

Q & A

How does climate change contribute to instability and conflict?

Climate change creates risks that affect human habitats by causing resource scarcity, such as water insecurity and food shortages. This can lead to social instability, triggering conflicts, especially in regions like the Middle East, West Africa, and parts of Asia.

What is the significance of the 1.5-degree target set by the Paris Agreement?

The Paris Agreement aimed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, the world is already nearing this limit, and projections suggest that without action, regions like Africa and Asia will experience severe water insecurity and other climate-related challenges by the mid-21st century.

Why is climate change considered a present, rather than a future, risk?

The effects of climate change are already visible, causing current instability and resource shortages, rather than just potential risks for the future. The challenges are clear and proven in various regions across the globe.

What are some examples of security risks associated with climate change?

Security risks related to climate change include disruptions in food and water supply, damage to infrastructure, health issues, and migration due to environmental degradation. These risks are interconnected and affect livelihoods across many regions.

How does climate change affect migration?

Climate change drives migration by making areas uninhabitable due to factors such as severe weather events, flooding, or droughts, particularly in coastal areas and regions dependent on water resources.

What are the two types of climate change impacts mentioned in the transcript?

The two types of climate change impacts mentioned are sudden, extreme weather events, and gradual changes that affect food production, freshwater supply, and overall environmental conditions.

Why are transnational effects of climate change difficult to understand?

Transnational effects of climate change, such as impacts that cross national borders, are complex and often involve multiple countries with varying responses. These effects are harder to manage due to the lack of coordination between nations and institutions.

What is the importance of bridging silos in the climate change response?

Bridging silos is essential because climate change requires coordinated action across various sectors. Different actors, like peacebuilders, policymakers, and environmental experts, need to collaborate to effectively address the multifaceted security risks posed by climate change.

What role do governance institutions play in managing climate change?

Governance institutions are crucial in managing climate change and its effects. If these institutions are not prepared or equipped to handle the challenges, the resulting changes can become chaotic, disorganized, and conflictual, potentially leading to violence.

How has evidence of the negative impacts of climate change evolved in recent years?

Recent years have seen an increasing amount of evidence showing the negative impacts of climate change. This includes the growing instability caused by resource shortages, extreme weather events, and rising tensions over environmental issues.