Membedah Utang Negara Indonesia

Summary

This video discusses Indonesia's national debt, which reached IDR 7,800 trillion by March 2023. The script explains how debt is managed, with a focus on government bonds (SBN) and foreign loans. It highlights Indonesia's growing debt, the key components, and whether the debt level is sustainable. The video also explores the government’s financing strategies, including low tax revenues and the need for subsidies. Despite rising debt, the government’s investments in infrastructure and social programs have led to positive outcomes. Alternatives like improving tax compliance and reducing subsidies are also considered to manage future debt.

Takeaways

• 😀 Indonesia's foreign debt reached 7,800 trillion IDR as of March 2023, which translates to 28.8 million IDR per person in the country.
• 😀 The discussion around Indonesia's national debt is often politicized and fragmented, leading to widespread misunderstandings.
• 😀 The majority of Indonesia's debt comes from domestic sources, particularly through the sale of government bonds (SBN), with 89% of the debt being from SBN.
• 😀 As of June 2023, 10.6% of Indonesia's debt is from foreign loans, and 31% of SBN is held by domestic institutions.
• 😀 A key measure for assessing debt sustainability is comparing the debt-to-GDP ratio. Indonesia's current ratio is 37.85%, which is under the legal threshold of 60%.
• 😀 Indonesia's debt has been increasing over the past years, especially since the 2015 economic recovery, but the debt-to-GDP ratio is still lower than other G20 countries.
• 😀 The ratio of debt payments (interest and principal) to export revenue has decreased significantly over the last 9 years, showing an improvement in debt service sustainability.
• 😀 The Indonesian government has shifted its debt strategy towards issuing more SBN and reducing reliance on foreign debt to mitigate currency risk and capital outflows.
• 😀 The government needs to borrow because tax revenues and non-tax income are insufficient to cover all public programs, with tax revenue remaining far below the ideal threshold of 15% of GDP.
• 😀 Indonesia's debt has funded large infrastructure and public service programs, such as education, healthcare, and social protection, resulting in positive asset growth and improved human development indicators.

Q & A

What is the total foreign debt of Indonesia as of March 2023?

As of March 2023, Indonesia's foreign debt reached 7,800 trillion Rupiah.

How does Indonesia's foreign debt translate to debt per capita?

If the debt is distributed across the population, each Indonesian citizen would owe approximately 28.8 million Rupiah.

What is the main component of Indonesia's national debt?

The main component of Indonesia's national debt is the sale of Government Securities (SBN), which constitutes about 89% of the total debt, while only 10.6% comes from foreign loans.

What is the significance of the sale of Government Securities (SBN) for Indonesia?

The sale of Government Securities (SBN) allows Indonesia to raise funds domestically, helping to manage foreign exchange risks and capital outflows while avoiding excessive reliance on foreign debt.

How does the ratio of debt to GDP (Debt to GDP ratio) affect the health of a country's debt?

The Debt to GDP ratio measures the country's debt relative to its economic productivity. A higher ratio indicates that the debt may be unsustainable, while a lower ratio suggests a healthier debt position.

What is Indonesia's current Debt to GDP ratio?

Indonesia's Debt to GDP ratio as of 2023 stands at 37.85%, which is below the legal maximum of 60% set by Indonesian law.

How does Indonesia's debt to GDP ratio compare with other countries in the G20?

Indonesia's Debt to GDP ratio is relatively low compared to many other countries in the G20, suggesting that Indonesia's debt burden is less significant than those of its peers.

What is the trend of Indonesia's debt repayment ability, and how has it evolved?

Indonesia's debt repayment ability, measured by the debt service ratio (debt payments relative to export revenues), has improved over the past nine years, indicating a healthier debt situation.

Why does Indonesia still need to borrow despite having other sources of revenue like taxes and non-tax income?

Indonesia needs to borrow because its tax revenue is insufficient to fund all government programs and development projects. The country's tax-to-GDP ratio is low, making borrowing necessary to meet fiscal requirements.

What are the main uses of the funds raised through Indonesia's national debt?

The funds raised through national debt have been used for significant public programs, including education, healthcare, infrastructure, and social protection, contributing to overall national development.

What alternatives exist to borrowing more money to meet the country's fiscal needs?

Alternatives to borrowing more money include increasing tax revenue, improving tax compliance, boosting non-tax income (e.g., from state-owned enterprises), and reducing government spending, such as cutting fuel subsidies.

What has been the impact of Indonesia's national debt on its infrastructure and social programs?

Despite the rise in national debt, the funds have contributed positively to infrastructure development, with significant investments in roads, bridges, electricity, and other public services. Additionally, there has been progress in health and education, leading to improvements in the Human Development Index.