Syria, Israel, Ukraine - A New Decade of War

Summary

The video reflects on the state of global conflict a decade after a 2014 analysis predicted a decline in violent wars. While many deadly conflicts have ended or stalled, new wars and unresolved issues have emerged, such as the war in Ukraine and the Ethiopian Tigray war. Civil wars remain the most common, but interstate wars are resurging. Despite increased conflict deaths in recent years, the world is still living in relatively peaceful times, although the future remains uncertain as the global order shifts towards multipolarity, challenging the notion of a rules-based world.

Takeaways

• 😀 The decline in violent conflict observed over the past century led to the belief that war might be over, but recent events suggest otherwise.
• 😀 The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 represents the first major interstate war in 20 years, signaling a troubling shift in global conflict dynamics.
• 😀 Over the last decade, global conflict deaths increased sharply, reaching 1.5 million, three times higher than the previous decade, with wars in Ukraine and Ethiopia accounting for a significant portion.
• 😀 Civil wars remain the most common form of state-based conflict, with many unresolved issues continuing to fuel violence in regions like Yemen, Libya, and Myanmar.
• 😀 Despite rising tensions, wars between democracies have not occurred, supporting the idea that democracies are unlikely to fight each other.
• 😀 Many ongoing conflicts trace their origins back to colonialism or Soviet occupation, with arbitrary borders, resource inequality, and ethnic divides still contributing to instability.
• 😀 While territorial borders have largely held, some regions, such as India-China and Venezuela-Guyana, are experiencing escalating territorial disputes.
• 😀 The rise of multi-polarity in global politics, with emerging superpowers like China challenging traditional power structures, is creating new tensions and alliance formations.
• 😀 The ongoing war in Ukraine, combined with proxy wars supported by external powers, signals a return to great power competition and a more unstable geopolitical environment.
• 😀 Despite the recent uptick in violence, the world is still in a relatively peaceful period compared to historical standards, but future trends are uncertain, and we may be at a crossroads.
• 😀 The prevalence of misinformation and propaganda in modern conflicts makes it harder for the public to discern the truth, highlighting the importance of reliable news sources like Ground News for informed decision-making.

Q & A

What were the main claims made in the 2014 video regarding global conflicts?

The 2014 video made seven claims: 1) There were fewer conflict deaths than ever before. 2) Wars between countries were nearly extinct. 3) Democracies don't fight each other. 4) Borders were mostly fixed. 5) Most conflicts were in areas once under colonial or Soviet control. 6) Civil wars were increasingly ending through diplomacy. 7) The world was in the most peaceful period in history.

How have the deadliest conflicts from 2014 changed by 2024?

Many of the deadliest conflicts from 2014 have either ended or significantly cooled. For example, the war in Afghanistan ended with a Taliban victory, while civil wars in Yemen and Libya turned into stalemates. The war in Syria was declared won by the rebels in 2024, and the civil war in South Sudan ended with a fragile peace agreement.

What is the current state of wars between countries, and how does it compare to the 2014 prediction?

The 2014 prediction that wars between countries were nearly over has not held up. In the last decade, there has been a resurgence in interstate wars, notably the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, marking the first large-scale war between major powers in 20 years.

How have deaths from violent conflicts changed from 2014 to 2024?

From 2014 to 2024, deaths from violent conflicts have significantly increased, with an estimated 1.2 million deaths from state-based conflicts alone, three times higher than the previous decade. In 2022, the death toll from violent conflicts was the highest since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.

What role do external powers play in prolonging conflicts, according to the video?

External powers play a major role in prolonging conflicts by providing military support or arming different factions. This includes global powers like the US, China, and Russia, but also non-state actors like Islamist groups (e.g., ISIS) or local elites that benefit from ongoing instability.

Has the nature of civil wars changed over the last decade?

Yes, the nature of civil wars has changed. Fewer civil wars are ending through diplomatic solutions, with many now ending in either victories or stalemates. The underlying causes of these conflicts, however, often remain unresolved, leading to temporary pauses in fighting rather than lasting peace.

Why are most conflicts today concentrated in areas once under foreign occupation?

Most conflicts are concentrated in areas once under foreign occupation due to arbitrary borders drawn during colonial times or by Soviet influence, which split or forced together ethnic groups. These power vacuums, unequal resource distribution, and ethnic tensions have contributed to unresolved conflicts that persist today.

What is the current status of international borders around the world?

While most international borders remain stable and uncontested, there are still around a dozen territorial disputes worldwide, particularly in Africa and Asia. Some of these disputes have escalated, such as the border clash between India and China and tensions over Taiwan and Venezuela's claims over parts of Guyana.

How have international alliances and global power dynamics shifted in recent years?

In recent years, the world has become more multi-polar, with new alliances forming and the idea of a rules-based world order being challenged. China has emerged as a superpower, with military and economic capabilities on par with the US and Europe. This has led to a rise in global tensions and competition for influence, particularly as Russia's war in Ukraine broke the taboo of large-scale conquests by major powers.

Is the world currently in a more peaceful period than in the past, despite recent conflicts?

Despite recent increases in conflict, the world is still in a relatively peaceful period compared to the past, with war deaths still at historic lows overall. However, the situation remains fragile, and the next decade will determine whether recent spikes in violence are an anomaly or the beginning of a more dangerous trend.