Ukraine Strikes Deep, Russia Continues Advancing Despite Ruble Crashing

Summary

As the war in Ukraine surpasses 1,000 days, Russia intensifies its offensives in Donbas, with strategic advances near Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka. While Ukraine faces manpower shortages and struggles with mobilization, it receives ongoing Western military aid. Tensions rise with the involvement of North Korea and escalating nuclear threats from Russia. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to end the war, including Trump’s potential impact on aid, offer uncertain prospects. The situation remains unpredictable, with both sides preparing for a prolonged conflict, despite mounting casualties and economic strains.

Takeaways

• 😀 Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has now surpassed 1000 days, with Russian forces making significant advances in Donbas.
• 😀 The Russian army is making faster progress in Donbas, particularly in the southern sector, with multiple villages captured and increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
• 😀 Russia is attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces by advancing from multiple directions, including the critical N15 supply line in the Kurakhove sector.
• 😀 The Russian military is also pushing forward in the Velyka Novosilka sector, threatening a larger envelopment in the western part of the front.
• 😀 The Russian forces have gained a foothold in Kupiansk, raising concerns about the defense of this strategically important town and the fate of Ukraine’s bridgehead on the Oskil river.
• 😀 The involvement of North Korean soldiers, estimated to number between 2,000 and 12,000, has bolstered Russia’s efforts to regain control of Ukrainian-held areas in Kursk oblast.
• 😀 Ukraine continues to struggle with manpower shortages despite a law expanding conscription, with newly mobilized soldiers facing deployment challenges and a lack of preparedness.
• 😀 Putin’s regime is relying on contract recruits to compensate for casualties, but recent reports suggest a slight decrease in recruitment rates, which might be offset by North Korean and mercenary forces.
• 😀 Russia's economy is under strain, with inflation concerns, a shortage of workers, and limits to its manufacturing capacity, despite having shown resilience against Western sanctions.
• 😀 Former US President Trump’s election has raised concerns that military aid to Ukraine could be reduced or halted, with Trump discussing potential peace plans, including a demilitarized zone and delays to Ukraine's NATO accession.

Q & A

What is the current situation in the Donbas region of Ukraine as of November 2025?

Russia is steadily advancing in the Donbas region, especially in the southern sector, where they have captured several villages. They are conducting flanking attacks around Kurakhove, and the loss of the N15 highway could lead to encirclement of Ukrainian forces in that area. There is also significant Russian progress in the Velyka Novosilka sector, with attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses in multiple directions.

What are the main challenges Ukraine is facing on the battlefield?

Ukraine is struggling with manpower shortages, despite expanding its conscription pool. The mobilization efforts have not been sufficient to solve the issue, and newly mobilized soldiers are often sent to form new brigades, which are less prepared for the rigors of combat. Additionally, Ukraine has suffered significant equipment losses, including tanks, vehicles, and artillery.

How is Russia managing its own manpower and economic challenges?

Russia has avoided a second round of full-scale mobilization but continues to recruit new contract soldiers at a rate of 30,000 per month. Despite significant losses, Russia has managed to maintain this rate, helped by the arrival of North Korean soldiers. Economically, Russia is facing strain, with the central bank acknowledging limits to manufacturing capacity and a shortage of workers. However, Russia’s resilience to Western sanctions is helping mitigate the impact.

What role is North Korea playing in the conflict?

North Korea has been sending soldiers to assist Russian forces, with an estimated 2,000 to 12,000 North Korean troops now deployed in the conflict, particularly in the Kursk oblast. This involvement has raised concerns about the broader international ramifications of the war, as North Korean soldiers are contributing to Russia's manpower despite the high cost of these operations.

What diplomatic efforts are being made to resolve the conflict?

Diplomatic efforts have intensified, with discussions between various world leaders, including U.S. President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelenskyi, and Russian President Putin. Trump has already communicated with both sides, proposing peace talks, and some plans for freezing the conflict are under discussion. However, these proposals face resistance from both Ukraine and Russia due to differing territorial and strategic expectations.

What is Trump’s stance on the war, and how might it change U.S. policy?

Trump has indicated that he may reduce military aid to Ukraine and push for a peace deal that could involve freezing the war, creating a demilitarized zone along the frontlines, and delaying Ukraine’s NATO accession. His stance is supported by some of his political allies, but it remains to be seen how he will balance these goals with ongoing military support to Kyiv.

What is the significance of Trump’s election on the future of U.S. support for Ukraine?

Trump's election raises concerns that U.S. military support for Ukraine could be reduced or redirected to force Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal with Russia. Trump has suggested that Ukraine could be persuaded to give up Crimea and make territorial concessions, which would be a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy.

How has the Biden administration responded to the evolving war situation?

The Biden administration has authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles, such as the ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, to strike Russian military targets on Russian soil. This decision marks a significant escalation in U.S. involvement and is seen as a response to Russia's continued military aggression and the growing threat posed by North Korea’s involvement.

What potential impact could Ukraine developing nuclear weapons have on the war?

Ukraine’s development of nuclear weapons would dramatically alter the dynamics of the war, potentially escalating it into a direct nuclear confrontation between two nuclear-armed powers. While reports suggest that Ukraine has the capability to develop nuclear weapons within months, it remains uncertain whether Ukraine would pursue this path due to the potential global repercussions.

How is Ukraine’s military receiving support from its Western allies?

Ukraine is receiving substantial military support from Western countries, including the U.S., France, and Germany. This aid includes advanced weaponry like Patriot missiles, F-16 fighter jets, artillery systems, armored vehicles, and drones. Additionally, there are reports of new shipments of landmines, armored personnel carriers, and further air defense systems, all aimed at bolstering Ukraine's defense against Russia's advances.