Konut fiyatları yükselebilir! Kiralarda sakinleşme başladı mı? & Servet transferi | Ahmet Büyükduman

Summary

The video discusses the dynamics of Turkey's housing market, focusing on factors like interest rates, inflation, and the impact of expected real versus nominal rates on housing prices. It highlights the psychological aspects of market behavior, with a focus on how the public interprets changes in nominal interest rates. The conversation also touches on the challenges surrounding post-earthquake housing sales and the trend of increasing new home deliveries. The overall sentiment suggests a strong, yet cautious housing market, with predictions for continued high sales numbers despite economic fluctuations.

Takeaways

• 😀 Interest rates have been reduced by 10 basis points, which will impact the real estate market, but the real effect will depend on expected real interest rates and market psychology.
• 😀 Lower nominal interest rates can make housing more affordable for a wider range of people by reducing monthly installment payments, potentially increasing market activity.
• 😀 Public perception often confuses nominal interest rate reductions with rising property prices, but the actual outcome will depend on broader economic factors and personal experiences.
• 😀 There's a psychological effect in the housing market, where people are interpreting government statistics and making decisions based on those perceptions, often influenced by the reliability of the data.
• 😀 The number of earthquake-damaged homes being sold is unclear, as many of them might not be sold for money but rather redistributed through programs like TOKİ, which means they don't appear in official sales statistics.
• 😀 First-hand housing sales have been increasing as new construction projects are finishing, and this trend is expected to continue, with new homes becoming a larger share of the market in the coming months.
• 😀 After the 2018 crisis, there was a paradigm shift, with first-hand home sales dropping to 30% and second-hand sales increasing to 70%, but now there's a slow shift back toward first-hand homes as new construction picks up.
• 😀 New home construction has been low in recent years, partly due to the pandemic, but it's picking up again, with a forecasted increase in first-hand home sales by the end of 2024.
• 😀 The speaker forecasts over 150,000 home sales for November 2024, with the expectation that sales will continue to be strong despite some potential fluctuations later in the year.
• 😀 By the end of 2024, total housing sales are projected to exceed 1.5 million units, which would mark a strong recovery in the market, despite challenges posed by economic conditions and other factors.

Q & A

What is the impact of nominal interest rate changes on the housing market, according to the transcript?

Nominal interest rate reductions can make housing more affordable by lowering monthly installment payments. This could increase the number of potential buyers in the market, as housing becomes more accessible for a broader population, especially those with lower income. However, the impact depends on the real interest rate, which accounts for inflation.

Why does the speaker emphasize the importance of real interest rates over nominal rates in the context of the economy?

The speaker stresses that real interest rates, which adjust for inflation, are a more accurate measure of the economic conditions affecting decision-making. While nominal rates influence the immediate cost of borrowing, the real rate reflects the true cost of credit, which ultimately impacts purchasing power and overall economic health.

What psychological factors influence public perception of economic data in the transcript?

There is a psychological element where the public may distrust government statistics or data, believing that figures like housing sales may be manipulated to present a more favorable economic outlook. This reflects a general skepticism about the accuracy and intentions behind public data releases, especially in uncertain times.

How does the earthquake disaster housing situation affect the housing market statistics?

Earthquake disaster housing is excluded from official housing sales statistics, which can create confusion. These homes may not show up in the data until ownership transfers are fully processed, such as when loans are settled and title deeds are finalized. The exclusion of these transactions distorts the real picture of housing market activity.

What is the significance of the increasing share of first-hand property sales in the market?

The increasing share of first-hand property sales is notable because it indicates a rise in new housing supply, following a period of low construction after the 2018 crisis. The trend suggests that the market is returning to normal, with more newly built homes being available for purchase, which will likely shift the market dynamics.

How has the market share between first-hand and second-hand property sales changed since 2019?

Since 2019, the market has seen a shift where the share of first-hand property sales dropped from 47% to around 30%, while second-hand property sales increased from 53% to 70%. This was largely due to the reduction in new construction during the economic slowdown following the 2018 crisis.

What prediction is made about housing sales for November and December?

The speaker predicts that housing sales in November will exceed 150,000 units, and in December, the number could approach 250,000. This forecast is based on the continued recovery of the housing market, as new projects completed earlier in the year are now being sold.

What challenges have affected new housing construction in recent years, according to the transcript?

The transcript notes that new housing construction has been low due to factors like the 2018 financial crisis and the pandemic, which caused delays in construction projects. The lack of new housing supply in recent years has led to a significant drop in the availability of new homes, impacting the overall market.

What role does the psychology of housing buyers play in market activity?

The psychology of buyers plays a significant role in market behavior. For instance, when buyers see nominal interest rates decreasing, they may feel more confident in purchasing a home, even if inflation remains high. However, psychological factors such as trust in government data and fear of economic instability can also impact buying decisions and market sentiment.

How might the government's approach to economic data, such as housing statistics, influence market trends?

The government's handling of economic data, particularly housing statistics, can influence market perceptions. If the public believes that data is being manipulated to create a positive image of the economy, it could lead to decreased trust and potential hesitation in market participation. Transparent and accurate data is essential to maintaining public confidence and ensuring a healthy market environment.