Dr. Gilbert Doctorow : Will Russia Protect Iran?

Summary

In this in-depth discussion, Professor Gilbert Droz analyzes the political landscape surrounding Donald Trump's election and his foreign policy, particularly regarding Russia, Iran, and Ukraine. He highlights the Kremlin's cautious optimism about Trump's administration, contrasts key political figures like Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov, and explores the complex relationships between Russia, China, and the U.S. on global issues. The conversation touches on the potential risks of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, NATO's reaction to Trump's policies, and the impact of European politics on the Ukraine conflict, all framed within the broader geopolitical context of the Trump presidency.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Kremlin's reaction to Donald Trump's election is generally positive, with an expectation that his policies will be softer on Russia and tougher on China.
• 😀 The Kremlin views Trump's appointments for defense, intelligence, and the state department as favorable to their interests in terms of foreign policy towards Russia and China.
• 😀 Russian officials have expressed support for figures like Tulsi Gabbard, who are seen as advocating for more balanced foreign policies.
• 😀 Russia remains cautious about Trump’s ability to push through his appointees in the Senate, especially with leadership challenges from Republicans.
• 😀 A potential conflict between Israel and Iran could prompt U.S. military intervention, but Russia is prepared to support Iran and has already supplied air defense systems and possibly fighter jets.
• 😀 The recent attack on the U.S. aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln by the Houthis in the Red Sea might have been aided by Russian intelligence, particularly with targeting information.
• 😀 Russian and Chinese interests align in their support for Iran, with China being a key player, especially regarding the protection of Iran's energy infrastructure.
• 😀 Russia’s possible involvement in Middle East conflicts could lead to significant military and economic tensions between the U.S. and China, especially over Taiwan and Iranian resources.
• 😀 There's speculation that Trump’s tough rhetoric on Iran could eventually lead to diplomatic overtures, similar to his approach with North Korea during his first term.
• 😀 The European Union's response to Trump’s election is mixed, with some countries expressing interest in negotiations with Russia, while others remain hesitant due to NATO pressures.
• 😀 The situation in Ukraine could lead to major shifts in European politics, with populist leaders like Viktor Orban gaining more influence as they advocate for peace with Russia.

Q & A

What is the Kremlin's reaction to Donald Trump's election, according to Professor Dro?

The Kremlin appears generally pleased with Trump's nominations, particularly his tough stance on China. However, they believe that his candidates are soft on Russia and expect him to be less aggressive towards Iran, aligning with their broader geopolitical interests.

How does Professor Dro compare Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov?

Professor Dro compares Rubio to Lavrov by highlighting the difference in their experience. While Rubio is described as a political figure with little international diplomatic experience, Lavrov is seen as a seasoned diplomat with decades of experience in foreign relations.

How does Russia view potential U.S. military involvement in a conflict with Iran?

Russia is cautious but prepared. They believe Trump might try to reach an agreement with Iran, similar to his efforts with North Korea. However, they are also ready to support Iran militarily, providing air defense systems and fighter jets, as well as intelligence support.

What role does China play in the potential U.S.-Iran conflict, according to Professor Dro?

China's interests in Iran, particularly its dependence on Iranian oil and energy resources, mean that China is unlikely to stand by while the U.S. targets Iran's infrastructure. China could potentially take military or economic steps to protect its interests.

What is Professor Dro's view on Trump's relationship with Netanyahu regarding Iran?

Professor Dro suggests that while Netanyahu and Trump may appear aligned on the Iranian threat, Trump is cautious about escalating conflict with Iran. He believes that Trump’s actions may reflect a desire to avoid war, despite the rhetoric from his administration's hawkish figures.

How does Professor Dro explain the relationship between the EU, NATO, and Donald Trump's election?

The EU is in disarray, with many countries pretending nothing has changed. However, as Trump's inauguration approaches, there is a growing divide within the EU, with countries like Hungary (led by Viktor Orbán) advocating for peace with Russia, signaling potential shifts in European politics.

What are the implications of Trump’s possible approach to the Ukrainian conflict?

Professor Dro believes Trump could push for an end to the war in Ukraine through negotiations with Russia, possibly sidelining Ukraine's current leadership. This approach would involve reducing U.S. aid to Ukraine and pursuing diplomatic engagement with Russia, which might require a change in Ukraine's leadership.

What is Professor Dro’s opinion on the effectiveness of the Russian military strategy in Ukraine?

Professor Dro notes that the Russian military is advancing cautiously in Ukraine, prioritizing minimal losses. Although Ukraine’s front lines are weakening, the Ukrainian forces continue to resist. Russia could achieve its objectives quickly, but they are choosing a slower, more deliberate approach.

Why does Professor Dro believe that the potential for war in the Middle East is greater during the last days of the Biden administration?

Professor Dro suggests that the real risk of war comes from the actions of the outgoing Biden administration, which might sabotage relations with Russia to undermine Trump’s future diplomatic plans. This could increase tensions and potentially lead to military escalation in the Middle East.

What is the significance of Russia’s potential involvement in the attack on the USS Abraham Lincoln, according to Professor Dro?

Professor Dro speculates that Russia may have provided intelligence and military assistance to the Houthis in their attack on the USS Abraham Lincoln. While the U.S. Pentagon confirmed the attack, they only acknowledged the destruction of drones, not the missiles, suggesting potential Russian involvement in targeting.