Prospek Ekonomi 2024: Tantangan dan Peluang

Summary

In this podcast episode, Eko Listianto, an economist from the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), discusses Indonesia's economic outlook for 2024. With growth projections between 4.7% and 5.5%, the conversation highlights key factors such as consumption, investment trends, inflation control, and the impact of the upcoming elections. Eko emphasizes the role of young generations in shaping the economy through productivity and digital innovation. Despite global uncertainties, he remains optimistic about Indonesia’s economic stability, driven by prudent monetary policies and the resilience of local businesses.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bank Indonesia forecasts economic growth between 4.7% and 5.5% for 2024, and 4.8% to 5.6% for 2025.
• 😀 In Q4 2023, Indonesia's economy grew by 5.04% year-on-year, an increase from 4.94% in the previous quarter.
• 😀 Gen Z aspirations focus on financial stability, with goals such as saving for a car or house and reducing unemployment.
• 😀 The global geopolitical situation, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is expected to ease, benefiting Indonesia's economy in 2024.
• 😀 Despite global uncertainty, Mas Eko remains optimistic about Indonesia's growth, citing strong domestic consumption and investment.
• 😀 Consumption is expected to remain a dominant force, with a 5% growth forecast in 2024, helping to sustain the economy.
• 😀 Investments are trending upward, with the government's efforts to attract foreign investment and support domestic business growth.
• 😀 Inflation remains low at 2.57%, providing stability for Indonesia's economy and creating optimism for continued growth.
• 😀 A slight risk exists due to a potential slowdown in exports, especially in commodities, with global demand moderating.
• 😀 The 2024 elections are seen as a positive economic driver, with increased political spending likely to stimulate various sectors like retail, transportation, and manufacturing.
• 😀 Bank Indonesia's macroprudential policies, including SRBI, SVBI, and KLM, are designed to deepen financial markets and support long-term economic stability.
• 😀 Mas Eko emphasizes the importance of the younger generation (millennials and Gen Z) in Indonesia's future economy, particularly through digitalization and entrepreneurship.

Q & A

What is the projected economic growth for Indonesia in 2024 and 2025 according to Bank Indonesia?

Bank Indonesia forecasts Indonesia's economic growth to reach between 4.7% and 5.5% in 2024, and between 4.8% and 5.6% in 2025.

What was Indonesia's economic growth in Q4 of 2023?

Indonesia's economy grew by 5.04% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase compared to the previous quarter's growth of 4.94%.

How does Eko Listianto view the prospects for Indonesia's economy in 2024?

Eko Listianto is optimistic about Indonesia's economy in 2024, citing the resilience shown despite global uncertainties, and believes the economy will continue to grow at around 5%, supported by consumption and investment trends.

What impact do geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have on Indonesia's economy?

Eko Listianto believes that while global geopolitical tensions have an impact, the situation may ease in 2024. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to reduce in intensity, especially as Russia faces domestic political pressures. Global businesses have already priced in these uncertainties.

What factors are expected to support Indonesia's economic growth in 2024?

Key factors supporting Indonesia's growth include strong domestic consumption (around 5%), rising investment levels, low inflation (2.57% in January 2024), and a stable exchange rate. These factors provide optimism for the economy.

How is the Indonesian government working to support economic growth through financial policies?

The Indonesian government, through Bank Indonesia, has implemented new financial instruments such as SRBI, SVBI, and KLM, aimed at deepening the financial sector and encouraging greater investment inflows. These measures are expected to support the projected growth of 4.7% to 5.5%.

What are the risks that could negatively affect Indonesia's economic outlook in 2024?

Potential risks include a slowdown in global demand, particularly for exports, due to moderating global economic conditions. There is also the challenge of lower commodity prices compared to previous years.

How does Eko Listianto view the role of the younger generation in supporting Indonesia's economy?

Eko Listianto emphasizes the importance of a productive and digitally-savvy younger generation. He believes that Millennials and Gen Z, who dominate Indonesia's economy today, will drive future growth by contributing through education, entrepreneurship, and digital innovation.

What role does digitalization play in the future of Indonesia’s economy?

Digitalization is seen as a game-changer for Indonesia's future economy. Eko Listianto stresses that young people must embrace digital tools to be more productive, whether in education, business, or innovation. This will allow for greater economic participation and global expansion.

How does the upcoming 2024 election impact Indonesia’s economy?

Eko Listianto believes the 2024 election will have a positive impact on Indonesia’s economy, particularly in sectors such as transportation, food, and beverages, as campaigns and related activities increase spending. Previous elections have shown that economic activity tends to spike during such periods.