PlanB Bitcoin Prediction November 2024

Summary

In this video, the host discusses Bitcoin’s recent price surge, closing October at $70k and reaching a new all-time high of $76k post-US elections. With Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance and his proposal for a national Bitcoin reserve, alongside MicroStrategy’s massive Bitcoin buy program, the stage is set for further price increases. The video highlights historical trends, including the stock-to-flow model, moving averages, and the relative strength index (RSI), all pointing to continued bullish momentum. Despite the fluctuations, the host predicts that Bitcoin’s average price could soar to $500,000 or more in the coming years.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $76k following the US elections, breaking out of a $60k-$70k trading range.
• 😀 The Stock-to-Flow model predicts Bitcoin’s price could average between $250,000 and $1 million in the next halving cycle (2024-2028).
• 😀 The 2020-2024 Stock-to-Flow forecast slightly missed its prediction of $55k, but the actual price of $34k was within an acceptable range of error.
• 😀 Trump's election victory is seen as bullish for Bitcoin, with plans to create a national Bitcoin reserve, potentially buying 200,000 BTC per year.
• 😀 MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, is set to purchase $42 billion worth of Bitcoin over the next three years, further boosting demand.
• 😀 Bitcoin’s Realized Price, which tracks the average purchase price of all Bitcoins, is currently $34k, indicating a strong bull market.
• 😀 The two-year Realized Price, focusing on Bitcoins bought in the last two years, is at $57k, while the short-term holder price is $68k.
• 😀 The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69, indicating a strong uptrend, and could reach the 75-85 range typical of a bull market.
• 😀 The ongoing bull market is characterized by rising realized prices and increasing demand from institutional investors and Bitcoin proponents.
• 😀 Economic factors like ETF inflows, Trump’s Bitcoin reserve, and MicroStrategy’s purchases suggest significant upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price in the coming years.

Q & A

Why did Bitcoin’s price increase to $76k after the US elections?

Bitcoin's price increased to $76k after the US elections because the outcome was seen as positive for Bitcoin, particularly with Trump's pro-Bitcoin stance. The market likely reacted to the uncertainty being resolved, and the election results may have played a role in breaking Bitcoin's month-long trading range of $60-70k.

What does the stock-to-flow model predict for Bitcoin's price in the 2024-2028 halving cycle?

The stock-to-flow model predicts that Bitcoin’s average price during the 2024-2028 halving cycle could reach around $500,000, with a potential range between $250,000 and $1 million. This prediction is based on past price cycles and Bitcoin's scarcity.

How accurate has the stock-to-flow model been in predicting Bitcoin's price?

The stock-to-flow model has not been perfectly accurate but has shown some success. For example, during the 2020-2024 halving cycle, it predicted a price range of $55k, while the actual average price turned out to be $34k. Despite this, the model was still within a reasonable margin of error, which some consider a success.

What role do Trump’s policies play in Bitcoin’s potential price rise?

Trump's policies could significantly influence Bitcoin's price by increasing demand. His proposed creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, aiming to acquire 200,000 Bitcoins per year, could create substantial buying pressure, potentially driving the price upward.

What is MicroStrategy's impact on Bitcoin’s market?

MicroStrategy’s impact on Bitcoin’s market is significant, as the company has announced a $42 billion Bitcoin buying program over the next three years. This program would result in the purchase of around 200,000 Bitcoins annually, further increasing demand and potentially pushing up the price.

What is the current status of Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI), and what does it indicate?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin is currently at 69, indicating a strong uptrend. Generally, an RSI above 50 signals a bullish market, and as the RSI approaches 75-85, it often signals the peak of a bull market.

How does the moving average of Bitcoin’s price help analyze trends?

The moving average helps to smooth out the noise from Bitcoin’s monthly price fluctuations, giving a clearer picture of the overall trend. A rising moving average suggests the market is in an uptrend, and sharp increases in price are typically seen after halving events, as the model indicates.

What is the realized price of Bitcoin, and why is it important?

The realized price of Bitcoin is the average price at which all Bitcoins were last moved in transactions. It provides insight into the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders. A rising realized price, as seen in the current trend, indicates that most holders are in profit, which is characteristic of a bull market.

How does the concept of 'fomo' relate to the Bitcoin market?

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) refers to the intense buying pressure that typically occurs during a bull market when people rush to buy Bitcoin due to rising prices. This phenomenon is often seen when RSI values reach extreme levels, such as 75-90, which leads to increased speculative interest and market volatility.

What economic factors are contributing to Bitcoin's bullish outlook in the near future?

Several economic factors contribute to Bitcoin's bullish outlook, including Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan, the continued purchase of Bitcoin by MicroStrategy, ETF inflows, and the general increase in institutional adoption. These factors are expected to create sustained buying pressure and demand, driving up the price.