PROJEÇÃO DE DIVIDENDOS 3TRI 2024 | PETR4 PETROBRAS

Summary

In this detailed financial analysis, the speaker reviews Petrobras' projected dividends for Q3 2024, emphasizing the company's strong production, sales, and refining performance. Despite a slight decrease in oil production, sales of refined products such as diesel and gasoline have increased. The company’s free cash flow is projected to lead to a dividend payout of approximately R$ 1.10 per share, with potential for extraordinary dividends pushing it to R$ 1.50–1.70. The speaker also highlights the importance of gas utilization improvements and synthetic dividends, portraying Petrobras as a prime investment opportunity with significant returns.

Takeaways

• 😀 Petrobras will release its third-quarter operational results on November 7th, which will determine dividend projections based on production and sales data.
• 😀 The main focus for projecting dividends is the gross revenue from Petrobras' production and sales, particularly in refining and sales volumes.
• 😀 The refining sector has seen strong performance with gains in diesel, gasoline, kerosene, nafta, and other petroleum derivatives.
• 😀 Sales volume, particularly of diesel and gasoline, is a crucial factor in calculating projected revenues and dividends for Petrobras.
• 😀 A simple 'rule of three' is used to estimate the financial impact of production and sales on Petrobras' revenue, showing significant revenue increases in certain products.
• 😀 The projected gross revenue for Petrobras in the third quarter is approximately R$126 billion, up from R$122 billion in the second quarter.
• 😀 After accounting for Petrobras’ liabilities and costs, including a R$3 billion debt, the dividend projections are expected to be similar to Q2 2024.
• 😀 The speaker estimates a dividend of R$1.10 per share based on a projection of R$32.14 billion in free cash flow, with 45% of this amount allocated for dividends.
• 😀 Extraordinary dividends could increase the payout to around R$1.50 to R$1.70 per share if Petrobras uses its capital reserve effectively, as seen in the second quarter of 2024.
• 😀 The speaker suggests that Petrobras’ performance, especially in refining and gas production, could lead to strong dividends and potential for future financial growth.
• 😀 The speaker encourages viewers to consider joining a course on options trading to maximize their potential returns from Petrobras, emphasizing the power of strategic investments.

Q & A

What is the key focus of the video analysis regarding Petrobras' third-quarter results?

The video focuses on analyzing Petrobras' third-quarter performance, with particular attention to its production, sales, refining operations, and the impact these factors have on projected dividends for investors.

What was the change in Petrobras' production from the second to the third quarter of 2024?

Petrobras' total own production slightly decreased from 2.7 million barrels per day to 2.69 million barrels per day.

How does the production of refined products impact Petrobras' revenue?

Increased production of refined products, particularly diesel, gasoline, and other derivatives, boosts revenue. The company experienced a rise in sales for these products, which is a positive indicator for higher earnings.

What is the significance of gas liquefaction in Petrobras' operations?

Gas liquefaction is important as Petrobras aims to optimize the use of gas produced from its oil platforms. Successfully increasing gas utilization could lead to higher revenues and reduced export costs, benefiting both the company and Brazilian consumers.

What was the projected total revenue for Petrobras in the third quarter of 2024?

The projected total revenue for Petrobras in the third quarter of 2024 is approximately R$ 126 billion, based on production and refining results.

How does Petrobras' debt affect its dividend projections?

Petrobras has a debt of R$ 3 billion, which is expected to impact its dividend payout. The debt is anticipated to be covered by the company's gains, with projections indicating that dividends will remain steady, similar to the previous quarter.

What is the expected dividend per share for Petrobras in the third quarter of 2024?

The expected dividend per share for Petrobras in the third quarter of 2024 is around R$ 1.10, based on the company's revenue and free cash flow projections.

How might Petrobras' extraordinary dividends affect the total payout to investors?

If Petrobras distributes extraordinary dividends, the total payout could increase to between R$ 1.50 and R$ 1.70 per share, with a portion of the surplus being used for these additional dividends.

What is the role of synthetic dividends in enhancing investor returns?

Synthetic dividends, achieved through options trading, can amplify returns for investors by allowing them to leverage their positions. This strategy could potentially provide a significant monthly income from Petrobras' dividends, in addition to the regular payouts.

What is the total projected monthly dividend income for some Petrobras investors, based on the script?

Some Petrobras investors could potentially earn a monthly dividend income of R$ 22,000 based on their holdings, factoring in both ordinary and synthetic dividends.