Nifty Prediction and BankNifty Analysis for 14th Oct, 2024 | EP: 443 | The Chartians

Summary

In this market analysis, Manu discusses the performance of Nifty, Bank Nifty, and Fin Nifty, highlighting key levels of resistance and support for the upcoming week. He advises caution, with a bearish sentiment prevailing in the market, expecting further sell-offs unless key resistance levels (e.g., 25,100 in Nifty) are broken. The video also emphasizes the importance of avoiding the first pullback after a sell-off, managing risk, and trading within clear structural patterns. Additionally, shifts in weekly expiry from Bank Nifty to Nifty and Sensex are expected to bring more volume and clearer trends in the market. Stay alert and trade responsibly.

Takeaways

• 😀 The weekly market overview highlights uncertainty, with a spinning top/doji candle indicating a lack of clear direction.
• 📉 There is a bearish trend in the market, with resistance levels at 25,100 for Nifty and 51,700 for Bank Nifty.
• 🔍 Manu advises against buying during the first pullback after a significant sell-off.
• 📊 Support levels are identified at 24,700 for Nifty and 50,800 for Bank Nifty; breaching these could lead to further declines.
• 🚀 The potential for trending days is high, with expectations of movement towards 25,700 for Nifty.
• 💼 Caution is advised for mid-cap Nifty trading due to expiry pressures; it's better to avoid during this period.
• ⚠️ Traders should remain bearish until the market structure shows a clear reversal pattern.
• 🧩 The Fin Nifty has resistance at 23,800 and support at 23,500; a break below could lead to significant drops.
• 🗓️ Manu will be actively sharing trades this week, following a previous period of sideways movement in the market.
• 👍 Encouragement to trade responsibly and maintain awareness of market conditions is emphasized throughout the discussion.

Q & A

What was the general market sentiment at the start of the analysis?

The general market sentiment was cautious, with indications of bearishness despite some signs of recovery, such as a spinning top or doji in the weekly candle.

Why does Manu advise against buying after a sell-off?

Manu advises against buying after a sell-off because the first pullback following an intense sell-off often leads to further declines, indicating it’s safer to wait for a confirmed trend.

What are the key resistance and support levels mentioned for Nifty?

For Nifty, the key resistance level is 25,100 and the support level is 24,700.

How does the current bearish structure compare to previous market behaviors?

The current bearish structure is more pronounced than in previous scenarios, as the size of the recent bearish candles is the largest observed since the pandemic, suggesting a stronger negative sentiment.

What should traders look for before considering bullish trades?

Traders should wait for Nifty to close above 25,100 before considering bullish trades, as the structure needs to shift from lower lows to higher highs.

What intraday resistance and support levels did Manu provide for Bank Nifty?

For Bank Nifty, the resistance levels are 51,668 and 51,700, while the support levels are at 50,800 and 51,000.

What impact does the upcoming weekly expiry have on market volumes?

The upcoming weekly expiry is expected to bring back good volumes to Nifty as traders shift from Bank Nifty due to its lower lot size and increased volatility.

What does Manu suggest regarding trading in Mid-Cap Nifty?

Manu suggests avoiding trading in Mid-Cap Nifty due to the potential for volatility and challenges associated with expiry pressure.

What could be the consequences if support levels are broken?

If support levels are broken, it could lead to significant sell-offs, with Nifty potentially moving down to 24,474, which is a critical AVWAP level.

What is the overall expectation for market movement in the coming week?

The overall expectation for the coming week is bearishness, with potential for trending moves, unless specific resistance levels are broken and a shift in market structure occurs.