Old geographies, new orders -- China, India and the future of Asia: Rush Doshi at TEDxFulbright

Summary

The talk explores how geography shapes global politics, focusing on the historical and future importance of China and India. The speaker highlights how geographic features, like the Tibetan Plateau, have contributed to the large populations and economic dominance of these countries. It explains their historical wealth, the impact of the Industrial Revolution, and the colonial era’s influence. Despite recent economic resurgence, China and India remain rivals, competing over resources and strategic control in the Indian Ocean. The talk concludes that geography plays a crucial role, but leadership can change its outcomes.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Geography remains crucial to global politics and the distribution of population and resources, despite advancements in technology.
• 🏔️ China and India have historically had large populations due to their geography, specifically the fertile river valleys fed by the Tibetan Plateau.
• 📊 For 2,000 years, China and India housed about half of the world's population, largely because of their agricultural capacity.
• 🌾 Historically, China's and India's large populations translated into large economies, as most people farmed, and more farmers meant larger economic output.
• 🏭 The Industrial Revolution caused a shift in global power, allowing Europe and later the U.S. to outpace China and India economically.
• 🌏 Today, China and India are regaining economic prominence, thanks to technological advances that allow their populations to be more productive.
• ⚔️ While geography kept China and India relatively isolated from one another, they still have a tense relationship, including a border war in 1962.
• 🚢 Both China and India are now competing over strategic resources and waterways, particularly in the Indian Ocean, leading to an arms race.
• 🔗 China and India are employing strategies reminiscent of European colonial powers, securing choke points, islands, and coastal states for influence in the Indian Ocean.
• 🛠️ Despite the challenges posed by geography, inspired leadership has historically helped China and India rise, and with such leadership today, they can maintain and grow their economic power.

Q & A

Why does the speaker believe geography remains important despite technological advancements?

The speaker argues that while technology has made geography less visible, it remains highly relevant, especially in world politics. Physical features like mountains, oceans, and deserts continue to shape global events, while technology allows us to overcome these features temporarily.

Why are China and India so populous according to the speaker?

The speaker explains that geography plays a significant role. The Tibetan Plateau, which feeds the major rivers of China and India, created fertile river valleys where civilizations flourished. These conditions allowed for large-scale agriculture, which supported vast populations over millennia.

What role did the Tibetan Plateau play in shaping the civilizations of China and India?

The Tibetan Plateau, known as the 'Rooftop of the World,' provides water through its glaciers to the fertile river valleys of China and India. This allowed agriculture to thrive, which led to large populations and the growth of civilizations in these regions.

How did China and India maintain large populations over 2,000 years?

Despite wars, migrations, plagues, and other historical events, the fertile river valleys in China and India, nurtured by the Tibetan Plateau, consistently supported large populations. The stable geography allowed them to remain populous throughout history.

Why were China and India so economically dominant for much of history?

Because for much of human history, agriculture was the primary economic activity, and productivity was similar worldwide. Since China and India had the largest populations and most farmers, they naturally had the largest economies.

How did the Industrial Revolution change the global economic balance?

The Industrial Revolution allowed European countries to become much more productive than agrarian economies in China and India. This technological advantage enabled Europe to surpass Asia economically, ultimately leading to the colonization and economic subjugation of China and India.

What is the significance of maritime choke points in the historical and current geopolitical landscape?

European powers historically controlled key maritime choke points to dominate Asian trade routes, leading to their economic and military dominance. Today, China and India are competing for control over the same strategic locations in the Indian Ocean, indicating that control over these points remains critical.

How are China and India’s modern-day geopolitical strategies similar to those used by European powers?

Both China and India are focusing on securing strategic maritime choke points, islands, and coastal states in the Indian Ocean, much like European powers did during colonial expansion. This competition mirrors historical strategies of controlling trade and resources.

What triggered the historical conflict between China and India, and how does it affect their relationship today?

In 1962, China and India fought a brief war over their mountainous border, which severely damaged relations. Since then, competition over resources and regional influence has persisted, and both nations remain wary of each other’s military and economic actions.

What optimistic outlook does the speaker offer regarding the future of China and India?

The speaker believes that despite geographic constraints and past conflicts, inspired leadership in China and India could help them continue their economic resurgence, bringing prosperity not only to their nations but also benefitting the global economy.