It's not a crash; it's just a correction. Remember to stay at Tiffin Coffee level! |Vj dhana||Vinod|
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the host discusses the recent stock market crash, focusing on factors like geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, rising crude oil prices, and new SEBI regulations. They explain how these events have led to significant market fluctuations, with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) redirecting funds to China. The speaker reassures long-term investors to stay calm, view this as an opportunity, and avoid panicking. They emphasize the importance of having a value-investor mindset, comparing the stock market to a business opportunity and encouraging viewers to remain level-headed during volatile times.
Takeaways
- 📉 The Indian stock market experienced a significant crash last week, with 13 lakh crore rupees wiped out in five sessions.
- 🌍 Geopolitical tensions, specifically the Israel-Iran conflict, are causing uncertainty and impacting global markets, including India's.
- 💸 Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are withdrawing funds from the Indian market and redirecting them to China, contributing to the market downturn.
- ⚖️ SEBI's new regulatory measures on F&O trading are also seen as a factor affecting market volatility and contributing to the crash.
- 🛢️ Rising global crude oil prices are putting pressure on various sectors in the Indian economy, which may further drive market fluctuations.
- 💡 The speaker advises that value investors should not panic in such situations, as market corrections are common and long-term growth is generally stable.
- 📉 The possibility of a 20% market correction is mentioned, but predicting such market moves with certainty is difficult.
- 🔮 Market predictions are compared to sports outcomes, implying that even experts can't forecast stock market behavior with absolute accuracy.
- 💼 Value investors should see market downturns as opportunities to invest in strong businesses at a lower price, similar to buying a profitable store at a discount.
- 😌 The speaker reassures that while the market may be volatile, those who remain patient and focus on long-term gains can potentially benefit from current conditions.
Q & A
What is the main reason behind the recent market crash?
-The market crash is attributed to multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, especially the Iran-Israel conflict, regulatory changes by SEBI, global crude oil price hikes, and redirection of foreign investment from India to China.
How much wealth was wiped out in the Indian market within a week?
-Within a week, 13 lakh crores were wiped out in the Indian market over five trading sessions.
What is the impact of FII outflows on the Indian stock market?
-FII outflows have significantly impacted the market, with 30,000 crores being wiped out by FII in a single week.
What is the role of SEBI's new regulations in the recent market crash?
-SEBI's new regulations might have contributed to the market crash by creating uncertainty and affecting investor sentiment.
What is the advice for value investors during market fluctuations?
-Value investors should not worry about short-term market fluctuations and focus on long-term growth of their investments.
What is the potential impact of a geopolitical event like an Iran-Israel war on the stock market?
-A geopolitical event like an Iran-Israel war could lead to significant market corrections, with the potential for a 20% or more drop in the market.
How should investors react to a market crash?
-Investors should cultivate a mindset that views market crashes as opportunities to buy undervalued stocks rather than panicking and selling off their investments.
What is the significance of circuit breakers in the stock market?
-Circuit breakers are mechanisms that temporarily halt trading to prevent panic selling and allow the market to cool off during extreme volatility.
How does the speaker view the role of FII in the Indian market?
-The speaker views FII outflows as an opportunity for value investors to buy stocks at a discount, suggesting that less FII presence could mean less market gambling and more stability.
What is the speaker's perspective on the impact of rising crude oil prices on the market?
-The speaker believes that rising crude oil prices can create opportunities for value investors as certain stocks become undervalued due to earnings worries.
What is the importance of having a long-term investment mindset according to the speaker?
-The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a long-term investment mindset, treating stocks as businesses one is buying into, rather than as short-term speculative plays.
Outlines
📉 Market Crash: Iran-Israel Conflict and Other Impacts
The speaker opens with a Sunday greeting, addressing viewers who are likely following recent news, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict and its impact on the Indian stock market. He answers questions from viewers, primarily about why the market crashed this week. Factors discussed include foreign portfolio investors (FPI) withdrawing funds from India and redirecting them to China, SEBI’s new regulations, rising crude oil prices, and geopolitical tensions. He emphasizes that value investors should not worry and that market corrections are normal over time.
🤔 Handling Market Crashes: Value vs. Day Traders
The speaker explains the different reactions to market crashes from value investors and day traders. While value investors see opportunities in market dips, day traders panic and try to pull out. He advises that during market volatility, it is crucial not to panic but to focus on long-term gains. Drawing parallels to past events like the pandemic crash, he highlights how quickly markets can rebound and why investors need to have a long-term mindset rather than short-term trading approaches.
📊 Investment Strategy: Buy the Business, Not Just the Stock
The speaker uses the analogy of buying a successful biryani shop at a discount to explain how value investors should view corrections. He points out that companies like Manappuram may experience temporary dips, but if one believes in the business fundamentals, they should see such dips as buying opportunities. He also warns against the 'quick profit' mindset of buying shares for short-term gains. Instead, investors should focus on long-term value, investing in companies they understand and believe in.
🌍 Global Market Trends: How to React to Crises
The speaker dives into the uncertainties of global events, such as the potential conflict between Israel and Iran, which could cause significant market corrections. He highlights the unpredictability of geopolitical events and how markets often react in extremes—either with euphoria or panic. Investors should stay level-headed and focus on fundamentals rather than get swayed by market mania. He reassures that despite potential fluctuations, investors need to stay calm and stick to their strategies.
☕ Stay Calm and Invest: Looking for Opportunities Amid Volatility
The final section provides advice on handling future market fluctuations. The speaker advises viewers to keep an eye on stocks they are interested in and to be ready to invest small amounts ('tiffen coffee money') if they see value opportunities. He reassures viewers that the current market volatility is not extreme, and investors should not break their banks over it. Whether markets continue their bull run or fluctuate, there are always opportunities for value investors.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Market Crash
💡Geopolitical Tensions
💡Foreign Institutional Investors (FII)
💡Regulatory Changes
💡Crude Oil Prices
💡Value Investing
💡Day Trading
💡Circuit Breakers
💡Portfolio
💡Mental Accounting
💡Opportunity Cost
Highlights
Discussion on the overall market crash and its impact on the Indian stock market.
Key focus on how the Iran-Israel geopolitical conflict influences global markets.
13 lakh crores wiped out from the Indian market during the week, with significant outflows from foreign investors.
Foreign investors redirecting their inflows to China, leading to reduced volumes in Indian markets.
Global crude oil price increases and SEBI's new regulatory actions impacting the Indian market crash.
HSBC Securities and ICICI Prudential warn about a potential 20% market correction.
Comparison of market behavior with unpredictable events like sports outcomes, emphasizing uncertainty in predictions.
Value investors are advised to view market downturns as opportunities, rather than panic.
Emphasis on patience and long-term growth for value investors, despite current volatility.
Reflection on market recoveries during past events like the pandemic, with advice against short-term panic selling.
Psychological impact of market fluctuations and the importance of developing a resilient mindset for investors.
Specific stocks like Manappuram and Tata Motors discussed as potential opportunities in the current market.
Criticism of speculative investors looking for quick profits in volatile markets.
The importance of viewing stocks as long-term business investments rather than short-term trades.
Encouragement for investors to focus on core stocks and recognize value propositions in market corrections.
Transcripts
[Music]
hi everyone hope you have a wonderful
Sunday morning that you have recovered
well from your Saturday nights and
you're all probably been watching the
news wondering what's happening
especially the last week and a lot of
you have many questions they've been
asking me on DMs and you've been chasing
daa on Instagram ask these questions so
I thought we'll get some of them
answered now so what is the questions
which are pressing our viewers mind
overall week update sir all this impact
they are asking about why this market
crash so I have some questions and they
have some questions mingled this and
then I'm asking to you Iran Israel war
impact on the Indian stock market crash
what is that and then uh in this week
only 13 lakh CR wiped out total five
days sessions and the FAS in the Indian
market they are redirecting their inflow
into the China so they are reducing
their volume in our India if you are
coming with the numbers on Thursday
trading session only 15 LH cres have
been wiped out from the F only overall
this week 30,000 cres have been wiped
out by the F so fa outflows very strong
so they are directing into the China
this week market crash also come by this
impact on the sebi new regulatory on the
F1 session that also might be an impact
on to the stock market crash and then
the rise in the global crude oil prices
so that also impact and the final one is
Israel impact geopolitical tension that
is the overall impact that they has been
created and another last question sir
this is the important question HSBC
Securities and ICA credential those
Securities they War this is correction
this is not a crash warning for you 20
more percentage all it's near so what is
this yeah this is like you know what the
market players are like the professor in
the class fighting on the chalkboard
some student in the market has thrown a
chalk piece and hit the Professor on the
head Professor is turning around looking
at the class saying who did it so this
is how you're asking me is it because of
Iran is there is it because of sebbi is
it because of this is it because of that
is it because of fed why why
why first of all if you are a value
investor right don't worry if you take
any market right any share and push it
over 10 years spread it is is pretty
much a straight line it depends on the
inclination some grow at 10% 11% 6%
depends on shares and what business
they're into but you can comper so don't
worry about people who should be worried
about are people who are trying to do
these future options who called day
trading those guys will be worried
because they can't understand this most
of those questions are coming from these
guys they a True Value investor it's an
opportunity then the last question will
appear sir 20% correction will be there
yes but then again who's an astrologist
right everyone can make okay looking
back you can say today IPL match let's
say is going on between CSK and Mumbai
Indians you go on say Mumbai Indians
will lose Mumbai Indians will lose if
Mumbai Indians does lose badly then you
think you're a profit if Mumbai Indians
thrashes CSK they don't think you're an
idiot you're just a psychoan right so
that's the way this is no one can
predict what is going to happen because
Netanyahu himself doesn't know tomorrow
morning what he plans to do because who
is pulling his strings nobody knows
right all leaders are not really leaders
they are only people in the front there
are a whole bunch of people standing
behind who decide who influence the
leader into going in certain directions
immediately conspiracy theories will
come out saying there a secret cabal
controlling the world I'm not saying
that we are all influenced by everybody
around us so the same way we do not know
what Iran will do how much they're
willing to push we do not know how much
Israel is willing to push so this kindy
of draw a forecast based on this is
difficult but what I'll tell you you
should take from this 20% news is good
that you heard this news I'm happy you
heard it now let's take your portfolio
let's say your 100 rupees becomes 80
rupees tomorrow morning Monday morning
tonight Israel decides to act on Iran
morning you wake up Market loses its
bottom right pants fall off it's down
since the Nifty goes down from 25 it
drops down to 21 within minutes we have
circuit breakers like what happened
during the pandemic in the market one
circuit breaker 15 minutes cool off
opened again W it fell again second
circuit brecket cooled off then third
circuit Breet half an hour so 1 hour
cool off then again it fell then they
said no trading for the day market is
closed we'll see you tomorrow that
happened okay so let's say the Monday
morning that happens and you see our 100
rupees becoming 80 70 rupes within
matter of hours right on Tuesday morning
when they open the market would you say
no Baba let me take my 70 rupees out
there's two people one I know what
eugenes will do we say I'll take on my
70 rupees the market will go rupes I'll
reenter the market at 40 rupees this is
the best strategy correct I'm not making
a loss sir s I'm pulling it out now
it'll go down further I will buy them
lot of people do not realize during the
pandemic crash like that the market
immediately bounced back within 2 days
if we took the chart and pull out the
chart people who thought this pandemic
will be like at the bottom most for a
long period of time it did not stay
within few
weeks it recover it didn't go back to
all previous Highs but it Rec
substantially people do bottom fishing
we're left at the bottom M right so my
advice is that is one extreme The Other
Extreme are the nervous Jo like a
Perfecto who will feel like oh my God I
cannot take this pain I will pull out
everything I don't want ever go to the
market this is very scary so they'll
pull out and they'll stand in the
sidelines so this is a major reaction
very few will be like huh okay let's see
how much more pocket change I have on my
table I'll buy some more forget that 100
that became 80 that will recover I know
but let's see what else opportunities
are there and let me pick those up very
few will be thinking of that mindset and
that is the mindset you should cultivate
and that is a mindset you need because
manapuram if you take for example it is
seen already 17 18% correction but if
you see over the year it's still up so
that means there's still lot of room in
manapuram from further correction and
there are reasons for those Corrections
which maybe we understand maybe we don't
understand but if you know manapuram
like we discussed in the previous video
yester and you believe in it and it
makes sense to you and you H it for the
long term then you should see
opportunities from 189 it might go to
140 might even go to 100 because some
companies micr Finance like Anand was
saying has corrected 50% so if 200 50%
is where 100 100 possible maybe it'll
happen in 3 weeks time may happen in 3
hours time it may happen in 3 months
time I don't know but if it happens it
happens and it might take 3 years from
100 to go back to 200 I don't mind but
that is a certain mindset to develop
because you're investing in the business
it's like someone is selling a business
like manapuram for cheap so you're
buying the business you're not buying
the share you're not investing you are
buying business someone is selling their
business for cheap like you're Biryani
right you find instead of spending 2 and
half lakhs and starting new Biryani next
door to your house which is running very
well that biryani shop you seeing every
day based on that you wanted to feel
your own Biryani you felt inspired to do
Biryani because of the shop you oning
store suddenly you find that guy is
selling it for half the price because he
has reasons to exit he needs to go back
to his hometown he got married he has to
settle down down he has to take over his
father's fishy business
inak okay wherever so he's saying D
you're interested you've been looking at
my shop if you want I'll sell it at 50%
discount definitely I will go sir
correct you'll be like he doing great
business he wants to cash out he needs
to leave tomorrow okay here take that's
what is the way you should look at
manapur that is the way you should look
at Natco T mot Tata Motors all of them
but the problem is you guys and J are
like no I want to buy this shop today
and now I bought 50% discount and find
some other Joker to sell it for 25%
profit and exit and take that money and
open my own Biryani
store so anyone who look at you will
think oh my God this guy's crazy he
wants to do a Biryani store he's bought
a fabulous Biryani store at discount but
he wants to sell that at a profit so he
can go byy start a new Biryani store all
by himself they look at you and say but
D why are you doing that this store is
next to your house you're happy
everything is good wor but your brain
doesn't think like that so that is why
you have to develop the mindset okay I'm
happy you're reading psychology of money
but but you not only read it you need to
apply it yes it has to be a practice
right so all this news is great this is
all good news for a value investor oh
okay we need to see like this correct F
want to leave okay very good leave India
is I'm in Indian I'm in India I'm not
going anywhere right we are not so rich
we're going to be moving to Dubai we're
not high netw inals like other people
who do videos saying High Network toits
are leaving India okay Baba I'm low
Network in I'll stay you don't want that
Biryani store okay I'll buy that's it
there's enough Indians who need Biryani
from me I don't need to make 10 crores
if I make one CR happy so that is the
mindset you should have so F leave let
them leave right you see those
opportunities and you keep buying if SE
is making a rules harder for fno o good
that means less gambling in the market
less of you gen is going crazy okay
those of you who want to borrow and
still go crazy that's your choice I
advise you against it but if you want to
do do all right but that is also good
news only right and if China going
they're gambling in China that's the
fia's problem because Chinese government
has only said stimulus plan theyve not
really done anything as yet they've
announced ideas so let them do they want
to go let them go we're not going to go
invest in China so no problem and if
crude oil prices go up very good you and
me any only use public transport so
we're okay so companies which are
affected by crude oil those M correct
and if it comes into value proposition
we'll buy them because people still need
to paint their house right people still
need to put fuel in people still like
buying plastic so those companies
suddenly become cheap for a while
because of earnings worries we'll pick
them up okay so that's the way you need
to look at it and as far as Israel and
Iran is concerned I cannot predict right
lot of people are saying this HP
Securities and IC potential is Extreme
warning if the get GS nuclear if Israel
attacks Iran's nuclear sites or they
attack the petrol sites and Iran decides
to retaliate by dropping something on
Israel extreme right then the everyone
will get gets spooked everybody will
retreat in great hurry if that happens
yes Market can go by 20% 25% who knows
that is an extreme M and Market always
reacts in Mania Mania means it'll go to
one extreme oh everything is good
everything is fabulous what are you
saying no matter what Russia Ukraine
everything is factored and facted and
they talk as if like bare Market will
never happen that is one extreme
otherwise this extreme everything is
gone to Hell be carefully sell
everything buy gold only buy gold gold
is the only safe thing correct either
this extreme or this extreme as a value
invested we try and stay in the middle
okay that is overall conclusion yes so
anyway I hope this video was informative
and entertaining don't worry there might
be opportunities again this week I can't
predict it D can't predict it if you see
those opportunities stay in tiffen
coffee ranges please because we have not
entered any kind of major correction
where you need to break your bank or
break your watch chest as some of you
like calling it we are nowhere near that
we are just seeing small fluctuations in
the market volatility in the market as
they say as the market is trying to see
what is happening some of it is greed
some of it is fear it's very hard to say
what is causing the market to move what
you should be focused on is your list of
stocks which you are interested in and
if you see value propositions in that
and you're ready to risk some of the
tiffen coffee money please look at
tiffen Coffee range of investing and
keep going and maybe next week we will
have some further market news like this
on a Sunday morning to talk to you guys
about as you're sipping your coffee and
scratching your heads or we might be
looking at another continuation of the
bull run and we like H everything is
back to normal again I guess either way
it works for us take care out there have
a lovely week ahead anything else you
want to add D no sir okay do like this
video do share it with your friends and
family who might find this content
interesting reach out to Dona on
Instagram his handle where he shared
with you and ask him your questions and
we'll try to get them answered here
other than that nothing else further to
say see you next weekend bye bye
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