Why Is China the New Enemy of the US?

Summary

The discussion centers around U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding China and Russia. One speaker argues that America's actions have driven Russia closer to China, and there's a growing assumption of inevitable conflict with China. The conversation contrasts two viewpoints: one prioritizing economic prosperity through trade (Jeff's view), and the other focusing on security and survival in a competitive, anarchic world (John's realist perspective). John explains that China's rise in economic and military power is pushing them to dominate Asia, much like the U.S. dominates the Western Hemisphere.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The speaker suggests that pushing Russia closer to China might have been a strategic misstep.
• 🔍 There's a common belief that the U.S. is already in a state of conflict with China, which is not limited to political parties but spans across various spectra.
• 📚 John predicted in 2001 that as China grows, conflict with the U.S. would arise due to a perceived threat to American global dominance.
• 💡 John's theory is based on the idea that the U.S. views power as a zero-sum game, where a rising China is seen as an enemy to American aspirations.
• 🤔 The discussion highlights a difference in perspectives between economists like Jeff, who view the world through a lens of trade and economic potential, and realists like John, who focus on the balance of power and security.
• 🌎 Jeff and John agree on many issues such as Ukraine and the Israel-Palestine conflict, but they fundamentally disagree on the approach to China.
• 🏰 John argues that in an anarchic international system, the best way for a state to survive is to be as powerful as possible, drawing an analogy to being the 'biggest and baddest' in a New York City playground.
• 🚀 China is translating its economic might into military power and is attempting to dominate Asia, which is perceived as a threat to U.S. interests.
• 🛳️ China's ambition is to push the U.S. naval presence beyond the first and second island chains, mirroring U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
• 🤝 Despite their disagreements, both Jeff and John are open to dialogue, with John inviting Jeff to explain his opposing viewpoint.

Q & A

Why is it widely assumed that the U.S. is in conflict with China?

The assumption of conflict arises from the perspective that as China grows economically and militarily, it threatens the U.S.'s position as a global power. This aligns with the view that powerful states inevitably come into conflict over influence and dominance.

What did John predict in 2001 regarding China?

John predicted that as China became more powerful, conflict with the U.S. would be inevitable. His theory is based on the idea that as China grows, it will challenge the U.S. globally, particularly in terms of power and influence.

How do the perspectives of Jeff and John differ on China?

Jeff, being an economist, views the world through a lens of positive-sum games, focusing on trade and prosperity. John, however, sees the world in zero-sum terms, where increasing power for China means less power for the U.S., especially in security matters.

Why does John prioritize security over prosperity?

John believes that in an anarchic international system, where there is no higher authority to enforce peace, survival depends on power. He argues that the most effective way for a state to secure its survival is by being powerful enough to deter threats.

What does John mean by the term 'regional hegemon'?

A regional hegemon is a country that dominates its geographical region in terms of military, economic, and political influence. John describes the U.S. as the regional hegemon of the Western Hemisphere and suggests that China is striving to become the regional hegemon of Asia.

What is China's goal according to John?

China's goal, according to John, is to translate its economic power into military power and dominate Asia. It seeks to push the U.S. out of the first and second island chains in the Pacific, mirroring the U.S.'s dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

Why does John not blame China for its actions?

John argues that if he were advising China, he would recommend the same strategy—building power and dominance in Asia. He believes that China is simply acting in its own national security interests, as any powerful state would.

What is the difference between a zero-sum and positive-sum view of international relations?

In a zero-sum view, like John’s, one country’s gain is seen as another country’s loss, especially in terms of power. In a positive-sum view, like Jeff’s, international relations can be mutually beneficial, with countries gaining from trade and cooperation.

What role does military power play in the international system according to John?

Military power is crucial for survival in the anarchic international system. John argues that being powerful militarily ensures that other states will not challenge or threaten you, which is essential for a state's security and survival.

What is the significance of the first and second island chains in U.S.-China relations?

The first and second island chains are key strategic areas in the Pacific. China seeks to push the U.S. beyond these chains to reduce American influence in Asia, while the U.S. aims to maintain its presence and counter China's growing military power.