Morgan Stanley's Emergency Alert: Do This Before It’s Too Late
Summary
TLDRIn this dynamic financial analysis, Steve Van Meter delves into the dramatic 93% plunge in market activity, revealing Morgan Stanley's emergency alert. He explores the critical role of machine positioning in trading, the impact of S&P 500 companies entering their largest ever buyback blackout period, and the strategic shifts advised by Morgan Stanley, including an upgrade of the energy sector to overweight. Van Meter also provides invaluable insights into trading technicals, momentum, and potential market shifts, offering tools and strategies to help traders and investors capitalize on market movements and achieve superior returns.
Takeaways
- 📉 Morgan Stanley issued an emergency alert about a significant market crash, highlighting a 93% plunge and its implications on the markets.
- 🤖 The script emphasizes the importance of understanding machine positioning in the market, as these models hold a significant influence on market movements.
- 💹 There was a noted 30% decline in flows on trading desks due to the corporate buyback 'blackout' period, which is a critical time for market participants.
- 📈 Goldman Sachs' analysis indicated that the S&P 500 is heavily skewed to the downside, potentially leading to a significant sell-off.
- 🛠️ Technical analysis and momentum indicators were discussed, including the use of RSI and MACD to smooth out trading signals and identify opportunities.
- 📊 The script also touched on the potential for a rotation out of big cap stocks and into small caps, as well as the energy sector, which Morgan Stanley recommended as an overweight position.
- 🚀 The potential for a significant move in small caps was highlighted, with a focus on the IW (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) and its technical setup.
- 📈 The energy sector (XLE) and its potential breakout were discussed, although the speaker expressed caution and suggested waiting for confirmation.
- 💰 The speaker provided insights on trading strategies, including the importance of setting stop losses and adjusting them as gains are made.
- 📉 The bond market (TLT) was identified as a potential opportunity, with a focus on the technical pattern suggesting a short-term shift in momentum.
- 🌟 Gold (GLD) and gold mining stocks (GDX) were highlighted as sectors with strong upward momentum and potential for further gains.
Q & A
What is the main topic discussed in the video?
-The main topic discussed in the video is the significant market event where Morgan Stanley issued an emergency alert about a massive plunge in the market and its implications for traders and investors.
What does the video mention about machine positioning and its importance?
-The video emphasizes the importance of understanding machine positioning in the market, as it is critical for traders to front run the machines whenever possible. It discusses how machine positioning affects market trends and provides insights for better trading decisions.
What is the significance of the 93% drop mentioned in the video?
-The 93% drop refers to a significant decrease in the buyback desk flows, indicating a major shift in the market. This drop highlights the largest part of the corporate buyback blackout window, which is a crucial factor affecting the market dynamics.
What does the video say about the S&P 500 and its current state?
-The video indicates that 87% of the S&P 500 is in a blackout, which has dropped to 93% as of Friday. This suggests that the market is in a unique situation due to the absence of one of its biggest buyers, potentially leading to a market pullback.
What is Morgan Stanley's advice to clients in response to the market situation?
-Morgan Stanley issued an emergency alert advising clients on actions to take in light of the market situation. They suggest upgrading the energy sector to overweight, citing reasons such as improving relative earnings revisions, stable crude prices, and compelling valuations.
How does the video discuss technical analysis and its role in trading?
-The video discusses the use of technical analysis, including indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), to identify market trends and potential trade opportunities. It also emphasizes the importance of understanding momentum and machine positioning in technical analysis.
What are the potential implications of the current market situation for small cap stocks?
-The video suggests that small cap stocks might present opportunities in the current market situation. It discusses the momentum and technical indicators for small caps, indicating a potential for upward movement and suggesting a shift from large caps to small caps for traders.
What is the video's stance on the bond market and gold?
-The video presents the bond market and gold as potential areas of opportunity. It discusses the technical setup for bonds, indicating a possible rate decrease, and highlights gold's continuous rise and positive momentum, suggesting further upside potential.
How does the video address the potential for a market pullback?
-The video addresses the potential for a market pullback by analyzing the technical indicators, momentum, and machine positioning. It suggests that the market might be overbought and due for a correction, especially considering the lack of buyers and the presence of significant supply zones.
What advice does the video give to traders regarding stop losses and position sizing?
-The video advises traders to use stop losses to protect their gains and to adjust stop loss levels as their positions become profitable. It also emphasizes the importance of not trying to capture every bit of a trade and moving on to the next opportunity when the current one is no longer favorable.
Outlines
📉 Morgan Stanley's Emergency Alert on Market Crash
The video begins with host Steve Van Meter discussing Morgan Stanley's emergency alert about a significant market crash, where a particular asset class plunged by 93%. The focus is on understanding the implications for the markets and investor strategies. Technical analysis and machine positioning are emphasized as crucial for better trading and investment decisions. The video also highlights the importance of understanding the buyback desk and corporate buyback blackout periods, which are affecting market dynamics. The segment concludes with an overview of Goldman Sachs' flow estimates and their impact on market direction.
📊 Technical Analysis and Market Indicators
In this paragraph, the host delves into the technical aspects of trading, discussing the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), MACD, and other indicators. The video explains the concept of smoothing out tactical signals and highlights the importance of stop losses in retaining gains. The segment also covers the momentum of the S&P 500, the impact of corporate blackout periods on trading volumes, and the potential for market pullbacks. The discussion extends to the technology sector, emphasizing the need to balance risk and reward in trading.
🥳 Positive Momentum and Overbought Territories
This section focuses on the positive momentum and overbought territories in various sectors, particularly the energy sector. The video discusses the potential for breakouts and the importance of timing entry and exit points. The host analyzes the charts for XLE and XOP, providing insights into potential market movements and opportunities. The video also touches on the bond market, offering a critical view on Morgan Stanley's recommendations and emphasizing the importance of chart analysis for identifying trading opportunities.
🚀 Breakout Potential and Trade Strategies
The host continues with an analysis of breakout potential in the gold market and trade strategies for maximizing returns. The video showcases the power of technical analysis tools in identifying high-probability trade setups. The segment includes a discussion on the performance of the GLD and GDX, highlighting the importance of adjusting stop-loss levels and following market trends. The host also presents a case study of the DBA agriculture fund, demonstrating the effectiveness of using reports and signals for successful trading.
🌐 Global Market Trends and Currency Movements
The final paragraph of the script addresses global market trends and currency movements, particularly the US dollar's performance. The video discusses the potential impact of global economic shifts on the dollar's value and the importance of being prepared for market catalysts. The host provides an outlook on the short-term direction of the dollar and hints at possible opportunities in currency trading. The video concludes with a reminder of the value of the host's trading tools and a call to action for viewers to access a 30-day free trial.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Morgan Stanley
💡Market Crash
💡Machine Positioning
💡Buyback Desk
💡Blackout Window
💡Technicals
💡Momentum
💡Energy Sector
💡S&P 500
💡Goldman Sachs
💡ETFs
Highlights
Morgan Stanley's emergency alert on a significant market crash, highlighting the importance of understanding machine positioning in trading and investment strategies.
CTA Corner's analysis revealing a 93% plunge in market positioning, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and the need for traders to adapt quickly.
The buyback desk's estimation of a 30% decline in flows, pointing to a significant change in corporate buyback behavior and its potential impact on the markets.
The current 87% of the S&P 500 in blackout, a record high, and its implications for market liquidity and the potential for price movements.
Morgan Stanley's advice to clients in response to the market crash, suggesting a strategic approach to navigating the current market conditions.
The technical analysis of the energy sector, with Morgan Stanley upgrading it to overweight, based on relative earnings revisions and valuation.
The examination of technical indicators such as RSI and MACD, and their role in smoothing out trading signals for a more informed investment strategy.
The discussion on small caps and their potential as investment opportunities, especially in a late-cycle market environment.
The analysis of big tech companies and their momentum, providing insights into the performance of mega-cap indices and potential trading opportunities.
The importance of understanding volume profiles and supply zones in technical trading, as illustrated by the S&P 500's current market situation.
The potential for a significant pullback in the market, as identified by the extreme levels of machine positioning and the lack of buyers.
The examination of the bond market, particularly TLT, and its potential as an alternative investment opportunity in the current market climate.
The discussion on gold and its recent all-time highs, providing a unique perspective on the precious metals market and its potential for further growth.
The analysis of GDX, a gold-miners ETF, and its potential to follow gold's upward trend, offering insights into the mining sector's performance.
The exploration of the agriculture fund DBA and its significant trading activity, highlighting the potential of niche markets for investment returns.
The emphasis on the importance of using stop losses and adjusting them appropriately to protect gains and manage risks in trading.
Transcripts
this just plunged
93% I'm your host Steve Van Meter and
thanks for joining me today and our lead
story today it's Morgan Stanley's
emergency alert we're going to show you
what just crashed by
93% and what it means to the markets and
why Morgan Stanley says you need to do
this now plus as we do every Sunday we
like to look at the technicals momentum
and more importantly the machine
positioning of the markets to help you
be a better Trader and investor make
more money in the markets than you ever
have now let's head over to Goldman
let's start today's story off with what
just crashed by
93% and here we can see in the CTA
Corner again we talk about machine
positioning every week this is critical
they're modeled long 166 billion of
global acces this in their 100
percentile after selling a mere one
billion last week now what's critical
about understanding machines from a
market and trading perspective you want
front run them whenever that's possible
now importantly we give you the tools
for that but let's continue on because
what we see now is issues at the buyback
desk they estimate a 30% decline in
flows on their trading desk during the
blackout they currently estimate
87% of the S&P 500 in blackout this was
last week with 93% now this has dropped
by 93% as of Friday going into of course
market trading on Monday because we of
course stocks were closed on Friday due
to Good Friday this means corporates are
in the biggest part of their buyback
Blackout Window ever for the quarter and
this is a big issue because if you look
at the two biggest buyers of stocks
whether the machines they're maxed out
as you're about to see and corporates
which have just gone into the dark and
when we take a look at Goldman's flows
we knowe over the next month and this is
critical because that is the extent of
the Blackout Window goes almost all the
way through the end of April we see in a
flat tape machines are only buying 1.9
billion of global equities that is
nothing absolutely a tiny amount in an
upt tape 13 billion of global equities
to buy but look at this anything that
causes the market to shift to the
downside you're talking 155 billion
Global equities 29 billion in the S&P
500 you want to talk about an impact in
the markets in a big way and then we'll
take a look of course with Morgan
Stanley that we put out an emergency
alert what you need to do right now but
the key here is understanding what's
going on with the machines here we'll
look at some more of Goldman's estimates
this for the S&P 500 look you see
they're maxed out they're not going to
be buying the S&P virtually in any
condition skewing to the downside
potentially if stocks have a big sell
off watch the machines go even
non-dealers or speculators in US Equity
Futures positioning there at extreme
levels again this is all happening as a
Blackout Window closes you see sentiment
stretched massively according to
Goldman's proprietary sentiment
indicator all these are pointing to
everybody's long this market and the
biggest buyer has gone away but Morgan
Stanley says not to worry their
emergency alert this is what they're
telling their clients what you need to
do right now we'll of course put this to
the test just from their weekly warmup
as Great Expectations suggest more
rotations and they're upgrading the
energy sector to overweight Adit a
combination of inflecting relative
earnings revisions stung breath and
compelling valuation the recent
stability of crude prices also points to
catch up in both relative performance
and earnings growth in their view now
something we do of course is look at the
technicals momentum machine positioning
we're going to look at this and the
energy sector someone's in asking will
you cover the small caps well my friend
for you we've got that today hang tight
as you point out the energy sector's
relative performance versus the S&P 500
has lagged the price of crude year-to
dat giving some upside potential further
we continue to believe we're in a late
cycle Market environment which has
historically been supportive of energy
outperformance saying the Morgan's
nudging everyone into the energy sector
of course we again we'll put that to the
test here let's take a look at of course
the big Tech first the big Mega cap
indices we'll look at the small caps
then we'll take a look put Morgan's qu
challenge here of the energy sector to
the test and let's start out with the
S&P 500 momentum now is positive and
still remains that way but normally the
macd has a negative cross now one of the
challenges of trading these technical
indicators is people get in late and
then they get out early and they're
oscillating around they need something
to smooth that out now one thing we do
is we take all these different tactical
signals we smooth them out we got the
RSI the macd these other ones and then
there's one special thing we add that
smooth the whole thing out and that we
put into our momentum Time pro report
and here you can see even though the
relative strength indicator is slowing
down magi's got a negative cross we have
51 consecutive daily buy signals on this
we showed you on the show back on
November 13th how to trade this using
our signals put a buy it open now you'd
be up
2.76% if you followed that stop- loss
level we're nudging that up a bit again
this is critical you know a lot of
people when they invest or trade they
don't hold on their gains which why we
encourage you you stop losses bump them
up when you're making money cuz our
reports show you where you can get other
opportunities look at our machine
positioning we've showed you when these
were Max short that was where the
opportunity lie look at momentum over a
one month period we look at momentum
over not just the daily but over 1 three
six month and it is Extreme levels this
suggesting my friends the market more
likely to have a pullback here but
expect especially as these corporates go
into the deepest part of the blackout
period looking this we've got the volume
profile turned on over the last 10 days
and this you see this red bar this is
where most shares are traded over that
period of time you can see the S&P 500
absolutely looking topheavy here as
sellers continue to take advantage of
this all it takes of course is a lack of
buyers to see the market move down the
catalyst is simple we know institutions
are in machines are in corporate had
been buying and of course retail always
now in at the top you see all the indic
ators you need the only question is well
who is the next marginal buyer well the
problem is there is none and this is
setting up a move an initial move down
in the S&P to that next Supply Zone as
we zoom out to the bigger picture is it
possible we could see a potential big
unwinding of this recent move down into
this 470 range absolutely that is indeed
possible of course we'll keep an eye on
that over the next month without of
course these corporates buying let's
take a look at Tech because we know
these Tech compies they buy the biggest
number of shares RSA continues to cool
off down to 56 mag's got a negative
cross we have momentum still overall is
positive this is critical you see
momentum Ty Pro putting up nine
consecutive daily buy signals now you
know we have no position on this right
now why is that we got stopped out and
that's okay because it did go up a
little more the key is not to get every
bit of juice out of a position but to
get what you can and go on to the next
we've got got other things if you're
looking for a trade our reports gener I
put a video out midweek on all the stuff
we went through trades recently gave our
subscribers some fantastic options to
add to their portfolio here we see the
upside Target is at the all-time high
downside Target 50-day moving average we
showed you when to get in this we showed
you how to make money and now let's just
see the 50-day moving average right here
below it's been crawling up the 21-day
moving average very steadily there again
you talk about a potential pullback you
zoom out and you can see support very
clearly right around the say 395 to 400
level would make a nice re-entry on a
pullback again no point in chasing
things are already high and and hoping
they're going higher because look at
this you put the volume profile on and
what do you see sellers are here you
take away the biggest buyer and there's
literally nothing supporting that market
underneath let's talk about small gaps
many of you been asking about this I
think one person in particular well this
my friend is for you relative strike 63
ma te positive cross you want to look
for upside potential in US equities well
maybe you need to look at small caps
here you see momentum Time pro eight
consecutive daily buy signals again we
give you signals on a daily basis and on
1 three and six month now notably you
see momentum across these other time
periods is rather stretch we know
machine positioning is rather stretch is
there opportunity here well the charts
say there is indeed opportunity let's
take a look at IW and we're going to
zoom out here because sometimes you need
to have a big picture perspective and
what does this start to look like if
you're a technical Trader if you're a
chartist you're saying hey wait a minute
this looks like a massive bottom and it
sure does suggesting a move between the
next two Supply zones and you'll know
and how do you know because price moves
very quickly markets are full of buyers
and sellers sellers have been right in
this zone now if they get pushed out and
buyers take over look for a quick move
up here near this
230 doll range or we have our Target at
22733 there is your opportunity on small
caps if you're looking to stay in the US
Equity Market rotate out of this big
caps head over the small ones but how
about Morgan's a call on the energy
sector well let's take a look momentum
of course positive RSI this thing is in
overbought territory meaning everyone's
been cramming into the sector mag's got
a mil across you got 46 daily
consecutive buy signals on momentum Time
pro meaning everyone's in this in fact
you look at the one and three month
window of momentum it's maxed out the
six month is not far belong the machine
positioning is long the question is what
do they see well they're talking more
about the economy we're talking about
the charts let's take a look here at XLE
which is right up here and you notably
this thing is sitting kind of near some
recent all-time highs we'll zoom into
the 2-year chart and and the question
here is is it going to break out of this
well we have to go even further out
let's go to the max weekly and you kind
of set this case up maybe it can get up
here to 101 that could be possible it's
really struggled at this current level
as you know sellers tend to emerge right
at this price level so if we were going
to move some lines around we definitely
add a supply Zone up here you can see
sellers dominate right here around the
current price point Morgan says this
breaks out I say I would wait and see if
it did now let's take a look at the S&P
oil and gas ETF the symbol xop and we
have these all in our reports you got
tons of ETFs different sectors You Name
It We got it RSI that's overbought to
Mac's also got a positive AC cross look
it's 45 consecutive daily buy signals
maxed down on the machine positioning
now one thing you want to do if you're
going to trade machine positioning you
want to lift these things in the max
short and then when they start to
reverse that's where you jump in cuz Ma
push a lot of money that's the
opportunity if you're looking to take a
long position when the machines are long
remember you're not going to get any
Boost from them we're already giving you
that information because we also run a
historical overlay Nobody Does it in
fact hard to get the machine position to
begin with but we give it to you in our
reports and there's a 30-day free trial
much to the disappointment of many of my
other YouTube friends who keep telling
me to quit doing that cuz well you're
making money on trading our reports and
there's a subscribers well they quit
real quick when they only get seven days
how do you make money trading in seven
days pay for a subscription we give you
30 here you can see this thing looks to
be stretched here over the last two
years sellers emerging here look at the
five-year chart kind of think is there
really upside something that's already
really stretched look at the 10-day
volume profile buyers picked up right
here right where you would expect them
30-day volume profile below it's very
very clear when you have these Supply
zones drawn in and notably we don't the
sellers are right up here you can see
that in this $153 range and the buyers
are down here below at 136 I would say
pass on Morgan Stanley's call that's my
opinion at least based on the charts
where might there be opportunity how
about the bond market is take a look at
TLT now momentum's positive here RSI is
at 55 macd has got a positive cross two
consecutive daily buy signals now what's
unique about this TLT is many people
don't trade with stop losses and we
encourage you to do that hold on to your
gains but some question that keeps
coming up is what if I don't and I go
down in the on the wrong side of this
trade we show you use our tools use our
reports dollar cost average back in look
at this we've been doing that we're down
0.01% so pretty much even here pretty
close to it any kind of upside move and
that turns into the black many of you
said there was never going to be a
possibility this trade would turn around
upside Target 9640 will show you that
there's a huge breakout on a WB Edge
pattern coming here you look at the
machine positioning there's still some
movement to the upside we've got
momentum is actually a strong on the one
month suggesting that we've seen a
short-term shift in momentum and look at
this the 3-month window is negative so
there is definitely opportunity here and
this is one you have to look at the
charts because it becomes crystal clear
as we take a look at TLT let zoom in
over the last 6 months what do you see
this beautiful right triangle pattern
look at the volume profile under the
last 6 months what is that telling you
buyers below where we got the supply
Zone what's the breakout well you want
to see the next trade 9640 here why
because this is where they're short then
they're short here and they're short up
here you get a price move here these
short sellers come out drive price up
the short sellers get worked out price
drives up you're now P hitting that 157
Mark with the potential then to
eventually break out under this 10860
you're looking for a much easier trade
than chasing the US Equity Market or
perhaps energy as Morgan's recommending
the chart set up on the bond market
tells you the rates here likely to come
down now I know a lot of people don't
believe that but indeed that's what the
charts are telling us let's take a look
at gold this thing is now back to be
making new all-time highs this is crazy
29 consecutive daily buy signals the
reason I say that if you're going to
trade a lot of people like to trade
things that are high in a rising I like
to look for things that are low and
beaten up and have upside potential but
this one got me wrong I didn't think it
was going to happen many of you said it
was well hats off to you RSI overbought
territory magd positive cross upside
potential well Sky a limit when you're
in breakout mode Let's Take a look at a
quick chart of GLD this thing is just
going ballistic here uh it's going
vertical MAV I mean I don't know where
this thing is going but many people say
it's going a lot higher so we'll see uh
if you're training to adjust your
stoploss level accordingly one better
opportunity would be GDX now remember we
to position on this we got stopped out
and actually in a video to the
subscribers because we do like to do
that but I show you how to trade the
signals I told subscribers if it breaks
above a certain level you can play Chase
but your stop- loss level there that was
actually a smart move look at this we
hit our upside Target it's breaking out
22 consecutive daily buy signals look
this thing is going to follow gold
higher even though we see momentum is
stretched on it let's take a look at the
chart of GDX see where it's going and
we'll take a look at some other
opportunities so you see so far the you
know small caps bond market how about
GDX there it is we told our subscribers
if it holds Above This volume profile
line take a take a chase higher and keep
your stop loss is fairly close on that
next potential breakout here to
3348 on GDX likely to chase gold higher
again lots of great trade advice it's
why are subscribers are making bunny
enough in 30 days to pay pay for their
subscription you know what you can't do
in seven days pay for an annual
subscription or monthly subscript any
subscription s days how about this
investco DBA agriculture fund this is
fantastic what a great trade many of you
said no way look at this 18% trading act
and I think there's a lot more upside in
this target now 2570 how did we do this
trade you've said what did you do how
did you get that I showed you using our
reports right in the show live here was
the signals here was the date we put it
in there and bang it works that's the
power of our tools why we give you 30
days to trade it the other people you
got sit in front of your screen all day
long push buttons Buy sell Buy sell not
us but your trades and go on with your
life our site maxed out on the
overbought territory Mac deposit Cross
by the way links in the description for
those 30-day free trial check it out how
about this bumping our stop- loss level
up what a fantastic trade this turned
out to be and when did we take this back
in December 18th so what a wonderful
return this has been let's get over here
to DBA there it is look at this thing's
going vertical in a big way and here's
the thing I normally don't care for
things that get to that position but we
got into it early and look you start to
look at this from a technical
perspective you're realistically seeing
that this k thing can get much much
higher up next upside Target is
2570 that was be right up here where the
last zone of sellers are at there's
going to be some further Catalyst where
did we tell you to buy this thing oh way
down here that's the key of our reports
we don't nail the bottom sometimes we
get there a little before but we
certainly give you all the tools you
need to be a successful
Trader because one thing that could send
a higher is soybeans this one we put out
to our subscribers as well we had a buy
it open on March 5th we had other
signals generated for our subscribers up
3.57% this in less than a month in a
trading month what kind of return could
you imagine to do that every month you'd
be rich how about this RSI 54 McD's got
a positive cross upside Target 100 day
moving average we showed you when to get
in this when the machine positioning was
deeply negative look at this momentums
turn around the one on month Windows
maxed out is there still opportunity in
soybeans the answer is yes indeed there
is we showed you how to get into this
thing down here and make some money look
at this it's finding that volume profile
line at the six Monon window let's zoom
in I do not know what it's going to show
there it is buyers right here below
trying to drive this out what do these
buyers want to do break through that
Supply Zone and drive it up into the
next one remember this is a beautiful
setup and you see this is the power of
our charts and our tools as you see a
bottom bottom bottom what happens this
thing usually races up somewhere around
the
$29 range we have you buying in here
down around 24 let's take a look at what
we did yes we had buy it open on 2434
that would be an amazing $9 dollar
potential trade based on what we see in
the charts how about the dollar this
thing continues Ro you think gold would
be an issue against a rising dollar of
course we'll hear for more from the FED
in the future but many believe now are
positioning for a stronger dollar
momentum remains positive 10 daily Buy
Signal we didn't take a position on this
one but that's okay because it didn't
get into a deep
short position like we normally like to
see but let's take a look at uup here
see where this thing is going again we
give you all these tools every day that
is amazing show you the high probability
trade setups currencies Commodities
equities you name this thing looks like
it's going to run up to that 200 day
moving average there's little argument
now you see where of course why because
it's where sellers of the dollar were at
before we look for a push higher here
maybe something in the global market
shift we talking about the currencies
going on with the Yuan and the UN and
not the UN the Yen uh this last week so
any kind of catalyst could of course
send the dollar the other direction but
look for a shortterm move maybe those
other governments have some pain do some
devaluations we'll see when the signals
flip of course our subscribers will
catch those as well and you can too
links in the description below again
thank you for watching I'm Steve and
meter thanks for watching thanks for
being fans bye
now
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