Tom Lee: “This Will be the LAST Opportunity of 2024”

Summary

In this financial analysis video, Tom Lee's bold predictions for the year's end are highlighted, with a $150,000 target for Bitcoin and a 5800 S&P 500 index forecast. Morgan Stanley's price target for Nvidia is raised from $116 to $144, anticipating better-than-expected earnings. The video discusses market sentiment, the potential for a Bitcoin rebound post-Mt. Gox distributions, and emphasizes the importance of staying invested rather than timing the market, supported by historical data on earnings and market performance.

Takeaways

• 💡 Tom Lee predicts $150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year, despite its current price in the 60s.
• 📈 Tom Lee also forecasts the S&P 500 to reach 5800 by the end of the year.
• 🚀 Morgan Stanley raised Nvidia's price target from $116 to $144, a 24% increase.
• 📊 The new price target for Nvidia is based on an estimated 45% revenue growth over the next five years.
• 💼 Nvidia's market dominance and lack of strong competition are key factors supporting its projected growth.
• 🗣️ Tom Lee argues that $6 trillion in sidelined cash will drive market gains as investors seek to avoid missing out on returns.
• 📉 Lee emphasizes that missing the top 10 best days in the market significantly reduces investment returns.
• 💵 Tom Lee believes that the strong earnings and fundamentals of big companies will continue to support market growth.
• 🛑 Market crashes typically occur when there's widespread euphoria, not when there is cautious sentiment.
• 🔮 Bitcoin's potential sharp rebound in the second half of the year is partly due to the resolution of the Mt. Gox issue.

Q & A

What is the new price target for Bitcoin by the end of the year according to Tom Lee's prediction?

Tom Lee predicts a new price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year.

What is the new price target for Nvidia set by Morgan Stanley, and what is the percentage increase from the previous target?

Morgan Stanley has set a new price target for Nvidia at $144, which is a 24% increase from their previous target of $116.

What is the basis for Morgan Stanley's increased price target for Nvidia?

Morgan Stanley believes that Nvidia's earnings will be better than expected, which justifies the higher price target.

How does the video creator interpret the basis for the increased price target for Nvidia in terms of revenue growth?

The video creator interprets the increased price target as a prediction of 45% revenue growth for Nvidia over the next five years, up from the previous estimate of 40%.

What is the key question regarding Nvidia's future according to the video?

The key question is how long Nvidia will remain a quasi-monopoly in its industry, as this will affect its revenue growth and market position.

What is Tom Lee's prediction for the S&P 500 index by the end of the year?

Tom Lee predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach 5,800 by the end of the year.

What does Tom Lee suggest about the performance of the stock market for the remainder of the year?

Tom Lee suggests that the second half of the year will be good for stocks, though not as strong as the first half, and that the market will build upon the gains already made.

What is the significance of the '$6 trillion on the sideline' mentioned by Tom Lee?

The '$6 trillion on the sideline' refers to a large amount of capital waiting to enter the market, which could exert upward pressure on stock prices as investors seek to avoid missing out on gains.

How does the video creator view the current market sentiment in relation to market crashes?

The video creator believes that markets do not crash when people are expecting a crash; they crash when there is widespread euphoria and the belief that the market cannot go down.

What is the video creator's stance on the predictions for Bitcoin and the S&P 500?

The video creator seems to agree with Tom Lee's predictions, citing the current market sentiment, strong earnings, and the potential for Bitcoin to be part of the monetary system as reasons to support these predictions.

What historical perspective does the video creator provide on the importance of staying invested in the market?

The video creator emphasizes that timing the market is not a good idea and that staying invested is better, as missing the best 10 days in a year can significantly reduce investment returns.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Market Predictions and Nvidia's Price Target Increase

This paragraph discusses the recent financial market developments, including Tom Lee's bold predictions for Bitcoin and the S&P 500, and the new price target set by Morgan Stanley for Nvidia. Tom Lee, who appeared on CNBC, predicts that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of the year, a significant leap from its current value. Additionally, he forecasts a 5800 target for the S&P 500, indicating continued bullish sentiment. Morgan Stanley has raised its price target for Nvidia from $116 to $144, a 24% increase, based on expected earnings growth. The analysis suggests that Nvidia's market dominance and potential for revenue growth justify the higher price target, although the sustainability of this dominance is a key consideration.

05:02

📉 Tom Lee's CNBC Insights and Market Sentiment

In this paragraph, the focus is on Tom Lee's insights shared during his CNBC appearance. He reiterated his bullish stance on the market, predicting a strong second half of the year for stocks, despite acknowledging it may not be as robust as the first half. Lee emphasized that the S&P 500 is on track to reach 5800 by year-end, which would represent a 20% total return. He also touched on the pressure faced by wealth managers who have missed out on significant gains in the past two years, highlighting the potential for a market rebound driven by these sidelined funds. Lee's comments on Bitcoin suggest an expectation of a sharp rebound in the second half of the year, supported by the resolution of the Mt. Gox distribution issue.

10:03

🤔 Reflections on Market Predictions and Investment Strategies

The final paragraph offers a personal reflection on the market predictions made by Tom Lee and the current state of the financial markets. It discusses the importance of considering market sentiment, earnings growth, and the potential for Bitcoin to become an established part of the monetary system. The speaker argues that while market timing is often challenging, staying invested in the market is generally more beneficial than attempting to time market movements. They also highlight the significance of earnings growth for major companies and the potential for the S&P 500 to continue its upward trajectory. The paragraph concludes with a reminder of the historical performance of the stock market and the importance of long-term investment strategies.

Keywords

💡Tom Lee

Tom Lee is a well-known financial analyst and the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors. In the video, he is mentioned for his bold predictions on Bitcoin and the S&P 500, which are central to the video's theme of financial market forecasts. His predictions of $150,000 for Bitcoin and 5800 for the S&P 500 by the end of the year are highlighted as key points of discussion.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. In the video, it is discussed extensively as Tom Lee predicts a significant price increase for Bitcoin by the end of the year, which is a major talking point in the context of cryptocurrency market analysis.

💡S&P 500

The S&P 500, or Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is used in the video to represent the broader U.S. stock market, with Tom Lee's prediction of a target of 5800 for the index by year-end being a focal point of the financial outlook presented.

💡Nvidia

Nvidia is a multinational technology company known for its graphics processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence technologies. In the video, it is mentioned in the context of receiving a new price target from Morgan Stanley, which is a significant increase from their previous estimate, reflecting the company's strong financial performance and growth prospects.

💡Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is a leading global financial services firm providing investment banking, securities, wealth management, and investment management services. The video discusses the firm's revised price target for Nvidia, moving from $116 to $144, indicating their optimistic view on the company's future earnings and growth.

💡Price Target

A price target is an estimate of the future price of a company's stock based on various factors such as earnings, market sentiment, and industry trends. In the video, the price targets for both Nvidia and the S&P 500 are discussed, with the latter being a bold prediction by Tom Lee and the former being an adjustment by Morgan Stanley based on their earnings expectations.

💡DCF Calculator

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) calculator is a financial tool used to estimate the attractiveness of an investment opportunity based on expected future cash flows, discounted to their present value. The video mentions the use of a DCF calculator to break down and analyze Morgan Stanley's price target revision for Nvidia.

💡Monopoly

In the context of the video, monopoly refers to a company's dominant market position where it has little to no competition. The script discusses whether Nvidia can maintain its quasi-monopoly status in the industry, which is a key factor in the discussion of its future revenue growth and price target.

💡Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index is a sentiment indicator that measures the overall attitude of investors in the market, ranging from fear to greed. In the video, the index is mentioned to illustrate the current market sentiment, suggesting that markets typically crash when sentiment is euphoric, not when there is fear or anxiety.

💡Earnings

Earnings in a financial context refer to the profit that a company makes over a specific period. The video emphasizes the strong earnings of companies, particularly Nvidia, as a fundamental factor supporting the optimism in the market and the bullish price targets set by financial analysts.

💡IPO Activity

An Initial Public Offering (IPO) is the process by which a private company goes public by offering its shares to be traded on a stock exchange for the first time. The video contrasts the high IPO activity in 1999 with the current year's expected lower number, suggesting that the market conditions and investor sentiment are different and not indicative of an imminent market crash.

Highlights

Tom Lee predicts a $150,000 Bitcoin price by the end of the year, a significant increase from its current value.

Morgan Stanley raises its price target for Nvidia from $116 to $144, a 24% increase based on expected earnings growth.

The new price target for Nvidia implies a 45% revenue growth over the next five years, up from the previous 40% estimate.

Nvidia's market position as a quasi-monopoly in its industry is a key factor in the revised price target.

The sustainability of Nvidia's market dominance against potential competitors is a critical question for its future growth.

Tom Lee's CNBC appearance discusses the S&P 500 reaching 5,800 by year-end, indicating a continued bullish market trend.

Lee's prediction of a strong second half for stocks, despite not being as explosive as the first half, builds on existing market gains.

The potential impact of $6 trillion in sidelined capital on market pressure and upward movement is highlighted.

The pressure on wealth managers to perform and not underperform the market benchmark is discussed in the context of market participation.

Tom Lee's historical accuracy with market predictions, including correctly forecasting the S&P 500 levels for 2023 and 2024, is noted.

The rarity of the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs simultaneously is mentioned as a market indicator.

The importance of staying invested rather than timing the market is emphasized, with historical data showing the risks of missing out on gains.

Tom Lee's bold Bitcoin prediction is analyzed in the context of the cryptocurrency's integration into the monetary system and Wall Street.

The potential for a sharp rebound in Bitcoin's value in the second half of the year is suggested, following the resolution of major overhangs.

The concept that markets typically do not crash when there is widespread fear, but rather during periods of euphoric sentiment, is discussed.

Strong earnings reports from major companies are presented as a fundamental factor supporting the market's all-time highs.

The comparison of current market conditions with the dot-com bubble, particularly regarding IPO activity, is used to assess market health.

A reminder of the long-term benefits of consistent investment in the market, rather than attempting to time market movements, concludes the video.

Transcripts

it's July 1st you have a new Target for

the end of the year

um well folks we had an amazing weekend

I hope you had as well there's a lot

that happened in the meanwhile in the

stock market in the financial World Tom

Lee was on CNBC again leaving the entire

speechless panel speechless again and we

have Nvidia getting a new prize Target

from organ Stanley which is absolutely

out of the stratusphere now as always in

all my videos there's no BS which means

you get the bottom line first I know you

guys are busy not everybody has 15

minutes to watch the entire freaking

video so here is the bottom line for

those who are in a hurry number one Tom

Le predicts

$150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of this

year that is absolutely insane given the

fact that the Bitcoin price is now at

the 60s insane also predicting a 5800 on

the S&P 500 also a new priz Target for

NVIDIA from Morgan Stanley raising it

from $ 116 to

$144 that's a 24% increase that's just

the bottom line in case you needed that

you're free to go no hard feelings at

all as long as you enjoy the video I'm

good with that now for those who

actually want to watch the entire video

sit back relax don't click nothing don't

smash nothing don't buy nothing just

listen so let's start with the price

Target first now Morgan Stanley had $116

per share on Nvidia which is kind of

high it's not one of the lowest ones

months and they got it overweight but

now they have raised it to

$144 which is a 24% increase and the

basis for this assumption is not so much

Market sentiment they actually gave a

pretty good reason IR rationale that

makes sense to me they basically said

look the fact that the earnings are

estimated to be X and we think that the

earnings are going to be X Plus why

basically allow us to provide a higher

price Target essentially what Morgan

Stanley is here to tell

is that they feel that the earnings are

going to be better than expected for

NVIDIA and that's why the company and

the stock deserve a higher price Target

now I actually broke it down in my DCF

calculator in stock MVP and this is what

I found so the Curr price target of

Nvidia for Mor Stanley was

$116 that was based of a roughly 40%

Revenue growth for the next 5 years at a

10% weighted average cost of capital at

a 10% discount so given that that price

Target was based on these numbers we can

infer that that $144 is based on a 45%

Revenue growth for the next five years

so essentially what Morgan Stanley are

saying to us is that they feel that the

earnings of Nvidia will grow not at 40%

per year for the next 5 years but rather

at 45% now for a company like Nvidia

it's a very interesting debate but it

comes down to one simple question how

long will Nvidia Remain the quasa

Monopoly in this industry right now they

are literally the only shop in town

there's so much demand they don't have

enough Supply they can literally charge

whatever they want it's almost like this

drug trafficker you know what I mean

whatever the price is it's going to be

bought so this is the situation right

now and that's why you're seeing all

this Revenue Spike that's going

parabolically but the big question about

Nvidia is how long will this situation

continue how long until competitors come

in and take a bite out of nvidia's

Market it hasn't happened yet we don't

have anything on the radar that's about

to Dethrone the h200 or even the blackw

so right now it's not there the question

is does it happen in the next 5 years

because if it doesn't happen in the next

5 years the 45% Revenue growth for the

next 5 years actually makes sense but if

a competitor will come in and take a

bite out of nvidia's business then we

might not see 45% we might see 30% or

25% it all comes down to do you believe

that Nvidia is going to remain this

somewhat Monopoly in this market in 2020

9 yes or no if you believe that that's

the case Morgan Stanley actually makes a

lot of sense if you don't this is a

price Target that's not for you very

simple now Tomley was also in CNBC again

and he was talking about Bitcoin and the

S&P 500 two things that I think you're

all are interested in it's July 1st you

have a new Target for the end of the

year um 2025 earnings look a lot

stronger than we thought at the start of

the year I'd say between now and your

end stocks should be higher I mean we

we've had a strong first half already

and second half won't be as strong as

the first half but we should build upon

those gains so yeah it looks pretty good

so 5,800 for the year what would that be

the total return of it's 15 now so yeah

that's you know it's a little bit more

than 20% Which would be after last

year's 24 24 that's a couple years no

one really expected I don't think that

that's right I mean that's painful for

people who've been sitting in cash for

years earning 5% because they missed out

on a 50% gain and that's 10 years worth

of sitting on cash so I think the end of

this year is a little bit of a Day of

Reckoning for those who said oh I'm I'm

happy with my Six Trillion in cash

earning 5% now he basically said look I

hit the target on my expectations

already twice you know back in the day

when it was 2022 and everybody said that

S&P 500 is going to just come down in

2023 it's going to be a horrible year

and it was 38 00 I said we're going to

hit 4,800 by the end of 2023 everybody

said I'm a permeable they laughed me out

of the Town etc etc etc lo and behold we

end the year at 4,800 I was right people

come back to me they ask me again and

they say well Tom what's going to be the

price target for 2024 on the S&P 500 how

much we going to end that year at and I

said 5200 that's another 400 points from

4,800 to 5200 people said that was too

high because we're already peing now

we're at 5,500 with 300 points past pass

my bullish prediction from January so

I'm here again to actually tell you what

I think is going on with the market and

he said look the second half of the

market is going to be good probably not

as good as the first half so don't

expect another explosion like we had in

the first half but it's going going to

be good it's not going to be bad now

what he actually said is this 5800 on

the S&P 500 by the end of the year which

means a 20% year on the S&P 500 after we

had a 25% year last year that's a

bullish cycle that a lot of people are

complaining about right now a lot of

people who have left this Market in 2022

thinking that we're headed down the hill

so to speak in the decline pattern

theyve missed out on 25% last year and

right now they're on track to miss

another 20% this year now this is the

point where I want to explain what

Tomley is talking about Tomley always

says this number and he said it in this

interview again there's $6 trillion

dollar part on the sideline and that's

going to put a lot of pressure out Wards

for the market to keep going up what

he's actually saying here it's a point

that was I think made very well by Josh

Brown which I also showed you a couple

weeks ago Josh Brown who actually

manages money for other people he came

on the show on CNBC and explained look

guys you have people who are very well

compensated you know they drive Bugattis

Ferraris you know porsa they have

beautiful homes in the Hampton so

they're very well compensated they're

very wealthy but they're employees at

the end of the day they manage very

ultim ultimately very rich people's

money and their only job is not to lag

the indicator not to lag The Benchmark

now if they're lagging it a little bit

that's fine but if you manage money for

somebody that's a billionaire and you

missed out on 25% last year because you

went out of the market and you got them

5% instead of

25% okay and now second year straight

you're about to miss a 20% year still

sitting at 5% what's going to happen to

your job people have a job to do and

that job is to earn a return on the

capital that's been entrusted with them

and that is a huge driver in the second

half of the year in both directions

right so so we saw a wash out in

September of October or October of 2022

this is the reverse version of that now

you have the Dow the NASDAQ and the S&P

500 as of noon today all making all-time

highs together it's a fairly rare

phenomenon but when it's taking place

and you're out of the market and or

underweight it's deafening you cannot

sit there and watch that go on and not

just because you feel a certain way but

there's an agency problem in investing

which is when you're running money for

other people they have expectations and

one of those expectations is you better

not Trail the SPX and obviously that

means that your head is literally on the

chopping block and as we go closer and

closer towards the end of the year when

it's going to be tested these people are

feeling the pressure and they're feeling

the urge to get back in this market to

minimize the losses they've caused to

their clients because missing out on 25

and 20% years consecutively is going to

be devastating for their careers and for

their clients now another thing that Tom

Lee talked about is Bitcoin going to

$150,000 by the end of the year it's

currently at

$63,000 that's a major increase he's

saying look it's going to be a sharp

Rebound in Bitcoin in the second half of

the Year Tom Le is going to be

absolutely right about the 5500 why is

he still saying 150 for Bitcoin why do

that why not just focus on stock don't

stick your neck out because it was

falling below 60,000 now it's back to

almost 63,000 so that Six Trillion we

just talked about that sort of plays

into your Bitcoin thesis that's right

bitcoin's probably suffering from the

mount gaau you know but starting

distributions in July that was a huge

overhang for many years but if I was

invest in crypto knowing that one of the

biggest overhangs is going to disappear

in July I think it's a reason to

actually expect a pretty sharp Rebound

in the second half so I think you know

150 is still within it's already July 1

so that's that's so you're not taking

that off the table that's still

possibility that's right and you know

one thing to keep in mind Bitcoin makes

most of its gains within with 10 days

every year if you take out the 10 best

days in a single year Bitcoin actually

has negative returns so Tomley is

basically saying here that Bitcoin is

literally going to double within the

next 6 months if that happens a lot of

people will make a lot of of money but

the ones who will try to guess the

bottom and try to guess the top and time

this thing they're going to miss out on

most of these profits the same thing

like they have in stocks time in the

market is way better than timing the

market now where do I stand on both

these predictions the Bitcoin prediction

and the S&P 500 prediction Bitcoin to

150k S&P 500 to 5800 by the end of the

year now look when I look at the fear

and greed index I'm seeing neutral

borderline fear markets don't crash when

people are expecting crash markets crash

when everybody's euphoric where the

sentiment is that the market that this

Market can't go down it's just too hot

when this happens when you have

exuberance when you have Euphoria you'll

see that I'm going to be fearful not

when everybody's anxious and worried

another thing is look we have great

earnings we have great earnings we don't

have an earnings decline the earnings of

these big companies are absolutely

insane look over the past 75 years I've

mentioned this before we had 1250 the

all-time highs in the market that's 16

times per year that we hit an all-time

high I'm not freaked out when I see the

market hit an all-time high especially

if the Baseline fundamentals like the

earnings are great now so far we had 20%

from November 20121 in this AI bull

cycle craziness 20% I mean the average

bull cycle in the US market is about

100% 110% we're not even close Nvidia

forward p is below 50 the Russell 2000

median p is 11 I mean really are we that

worried about it um look another 300

points on the S&P 500 which is what Tomy

is predicting is 5 and a half% now

that's 5 and a half% on the index when I

look at a stock like a paler which I own

that's a three beta stock which means

that he's predicting another 15% by the

end of the year on paler I'll take it

now look I get nervous when the

sentiment on the street is euphoric I

don't get nervous when everybody's

panicking and worried that the market is

going to CR Ash I just don't especially

when the forward PE ratio is actually

down on the S&P 500 last year we had 26

forward PE this year the 4p on the S&P

500 is 22 earnings went so up that the p

ratio actually went down in 1999 it was

33 especially when they look at IPO

activity and they see that in 1999 just

before the Doom crash we had 400 IPOs

per year in 2021 we had 1,500 or

something like that this year we're on

pce to do 150 IPOs that's it look the

top 1% of investors and I've showed this

in the previous video they take 12 years

to trade their entire portfolio to turn

over the entire thing there's no need

for you to be super active just stay the

course it's that simple if you put in

$15,000 in the s&p500 in 2010 not that

long ago and you added another $500 per

month you would be sitting on $200,000

right now about 880,000 of it will be

your money put in through those 500

15,000 but 120,000 is basically free

it's from the market it's not that

complicated and Tom Le is Right Bitcoin

is actually not that crazy to see at

150,000 maybe not by the end of the year

but it's definitely part of the monetary

system I don't know about the other

coins I will say nothing about the other

coins but Bitcoin is part of the

monetary system it's part of Wall Street

it's not going anywhere 150,000 at some

point it's going to get there probably

not 6 months but it will be there and by

the way Tom Le is actually 100% right

from 2003 to 2023 if you miss the best

10 days in 20 years the best 10 days in

20 years

your investment will be slashed by half

because timing the market is simply not

a good idea I hope you enjoyed this

video I'll see you the next

one later