The Demographic Transition Model [AP Human Geography Review Unit 2 Topic 5]
Summary
TLDRThe video explores shifting global population trends, contrasting concerns of overpopulation with declining fertility rates in countries like the U.S. The demographic transition model is introduced, explaining how societies move through different stages of population growth based on economic and social factors. The speaker also discusses the regional population booms, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The epidemiologic transition model is also covered, highlighting how health and disease patterns evolve alongside population changes. The video's objective is to deepen understanding of global demographic shifts and their implications.
Takeaways
- 🌍 Global population trends are shifting: Some countries face declining fertility rates, while others experience rapid population growth.
- 🇳🇬 By 2050, Nigeria is expected to have 400 million people, overtaking the U.S. as the third most populous country.
- 📉 Sub-Saharan Africa's population is growing at 2.7% annually, faster than South Asia (1.2%) and Latin America (0.9%).
- 🏭 The demographic transition model explains population changes through five stages, linked to economic and social developments.
- 👶 Stage 1 has high birth and death rates, resulting in low population growth. Most of human history occurred in this stage.
- 💉 In Stage 2, birth rates remain high, but death rates drop due to medical advances, causing a population boom.
- 🏙️ Stage 3 sees declining birth rates due to urbanization, higher life expectancy, and changes in societal norms like gender roles.
- 🏢 Stage 4 countries, such as the U.S. and China, experience low birth and death rates, with stable or slow population growth.
- 🔄 Stage 5 speculates a declining population, as birth rates drop below death rates, with countries like Japan and Germany as examples.
- 💡 The demographic transition model works alongside the epidemiologic transition model, which explains the changing causes of death throughout the stages.
Q & A
What is the current trend in fertility rates in the U.S.?
-The U.S. fertility rate has been shrinking for the last 15 years, indicating a long-term decline in the birth rate.
Why is Nigeria projected to overtake the U.S. in population by 2050?
-Nigeria's population is forecasted to reach 400 million by 2050 due to its high population growth rate, which will make it the third most populous country, surpassing the U.S.
What is the demographic transition model (DTM) and its significance?
-The DTM is a model that describes the transition of societies through five stages based on birth rates, death rates, and overall population growth, focusing on economic and social developments.
What characterizes Stage 1 of the demographic transition model?
-Stage 1 is marked by high birth rates (CBR) and high death rates (CDR), leading to little or no natural increase (NIR). Societies in this stage lack sanitation, medicine, and have primarily agricultural economies.
How did the Industrial Revolution impact the demographic transition?
-The Industrial Revolution allowed societies to move into Stage 2 by increasing urbanization, improving medicine, and boosting food production, which reduced death rates and led to population growth.
What economic changes occur in Stage 3 of the demographic transition model?
-In Stage 3, birth rates begin to fall, and societies experience more job opportunities in the manufacturing (secondary sector) and services (tertiary sector), leading to urbanization and smaller family sizes.
What defines Stage 4 of the demographic transition model?
-Stage 4 is defined by low birth and death rates, with the possibility of zero population growth (ZPG). This stage is characterized by economic development, increased education for women, and a focus on careers over large families.
What is the significance of the replacement rate in population growth?
-The replacement rate is the total fertility rate (TFR) required to keep a population stable, typically 2.1 children per woman. If a country's TFR falls below this, the population will decrease over time.
What is the epidemiologic transition model and how does it relate to the demographic transition model?
-The epidemiologic transition model explains the leading causes of death at each stage of the demographic transition, shifting from infectious diseases in early stages to degenerative diseases in later stages.
What is the potential threat posed by Stage 5 of the epidemiologic transition model?
-In Stage 5, there is a re-emergence of infectious diseases due to factors like the evolution of antibiotic-resistant pathogens, increased urbanization, poverty, and globalization, leading to the potential for pandemics.
Outlines
🌍 Changing Trends in Global Population
The narrative around global population growth is shifting. The U.S. fertility rate has been declining for nearly 15 years, leading to concerns about underpopulation and potential societal collapse if people don’t have more children. Meanwhile, regions like sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing rapid population growth, adding the equivalent of France’s population every two years. The contrast between global population decline and boom brings focus to the 'demographic transition' model, a framework with five stages outlining the economic and social developments influencing population changes.
🏭 The Industrial and Medical Revolutions' Impact on Population
The Industrial Revolution ushered in Stage 2 of the demographic transition model, as countries saw a decrease in death rates while birth rates remained high, leading to population growth. Advances in medicine and agricultural productivity played significant roles. Migration patterns shifted as urbanization increased, with people moving to cities for economic opportunities. Countries like Afghanistan are currently in Stage 2, with rapidly expanding populations as seen in their population pyramids. Societies in this stage also experience improvements in medical care, agriculture, and overall economic conditions.
🏙️ Urbanization and Decreasing Birth Rates
As countries enter Stage 3 of the demographic transition model, birth rates start to decline, driven by urbanization and increased medical advancements. Families have fewer children due to economic conditions and changing cultural attitudes, particularly toward gender roles. Women gain more rights and participate more in the economy. Mexico is an example of a Stage 3 country, with its population growth slowing as more people enter their reproductive and post-reproductive years. Migration to urban areas continues as economic opportunities in the secondary and tertiary sectors increase.
💼 Economic Stability and Population Balance
Stage 4 of the demographic transition is characterized by both low birth and death rates, resulting in a low to flat natural increase rate (NIR). Economic factors like higher living costs, career focus, and delayed marriages contribute to smaller family sizes. Education for women and more job opportunities in the tertiary sector drive social changes. Countries like the U.S. and China exemplify Stage 4, with their population pyramids showing balanced age distribution. However, political policies can influence these stages, such as China’s one-child policy.
📉 Speculative Stage 5 and Population Decline
Stage 5, a speculative stage, is marked by a negative NIR, where birth rates fall below death rates, causing population decline. Countries like Japan and Germany are examples of Stage 5, where aging populations dominate their demographic pyramids. A total fertility rate (TFR) below 2.1 will lead to population decreases unless offset by migration. While migration can impact population trends, demographic indicators focus on births and deaths within a country.
🦠 The Epidemiologic Transition Model: Health and Disease
The epidemiologic transition model, closely tied to the demographic transition model, examines how causes of death shift through different stages of population development. In Stage 1, death comes from a wide range of causes, such as pestilence and famine. As societies enter Stage 2, advancements in medicine and living conditions reduce deaths from diseases and pandemics. Stage 3 sees deaths from degenerative diseases, while Stage 4 includes delaying these diseases through improved health care. In Stage 5, the reemergence of infectious diseases poses new challenges due to factors like poverty, urbanization, and global travel.
🦠 Disease Evolution and Global Challenges
Stage 5 of the epidemiologic transition model highlights the resurgence of infectious diseases due to factors like disease evolution, urbanization, and global travel. The development of antibiotic-resistant 'superbugs' and the spread of diseases in densely populated cities are major concerns. Globalization and travel also contribute to the spread of pandemics, as seen with COVID-19. Lower-income communities face greater risks due to limited access to healthcare and exposure to diseases through essential jobs. Understanding these health transitions is crucial for studying demographic trends and societal development.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
💡Stage 1
💡Stage 2
💡Stage 3
💡Stage 4
💡Stage 5
💡Fertility Rate
💡Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
💡Migration
💡Sub-Saharan Africa
Highlights
The U.S. fertility rate has been shrinking for nearly 15 years, signaling a potential population decline.
By 2050, Nigeria is forecasted to have 400 million people, surpassing the U.S. as the third most populous country.
Sub-Saharan Africa's population is growing at 2.7% annually, significantly faster than South Asia and Latin America.
Africa adds the population of France or Thailand every two years due to its rapid growth.
The demographic transition model explains population growth and decline through five stages related to societal development.
Stage one societies have high birth and death rates, with a low natural increase rate due to a lack of sanitation, medicine, and advanced agriculture.
No countries today remain in stage one of the demographic transition model, which characterized much of human history.
The Industrial Revolution moved countries into stage two, boosting population growth due to improved food surplus and medical advancements.
Countries like Afghanistan are still in stage two, experiencing population booms due to high birth rates and decreasing death rates.
Stage three sees a decrease in birth rates as urbanization and economic opportunities reduce the need for large families.
Mexico is in stage three, where population growth slows, but the population remains relatively young and expanding.
Stage four countries like the U.S. and China experience low birth and death rates, leading to stable or zero population growth.
Stage five is speculative, involving countries like Japan and Germany, where birth rates are lower than death rates, causing population decline.
In stage five, a country's total fertility rate must be above 2.1 to maintain population; below that, the population shrinks.
The epidemiologic transition model aligns with the demographic transition model, explaining the primary causes of death in each stage.
Transcripts
for most of my life I've been told that
the world is going to become
overpopulated but recently I've noticed
that the conversation around population
growth has started to change the U.S
fertility rate is actually shrinking and
has been for a while it's been falling
for the last almost 15 years now at this
point I can't emphasize this enough
there are not enough people if people
don't have more children civilization is
going to crumble mark my words but while
some countries are concerned with a
population bust there are still regions
in the world that are experiencing a
population boom according to the
economist by 2050 Nigeria is forecasted
to have 400 million people meaning it
will overtake the United States as the
world's third most populous country and
as of today sub-Saharan Africa's
population is growing at 2.7 percent a
year which is more than twice as fast as
South Asia which is at 1.2 percent and
Latin America which is at point nine
percent that means Africa is adding the
population of France or Thailand every
two years so which is is it is the
global population crashing or is it
exploding to answer this question we
have to understand the demographic
transition it's a model that has five
different stages and it focuses on
different economic and social
developments of a society in the first
stage societies have a high CBR and CDR
which actually end up creating a low nir
since the births and deaths end up
canceling each other out Societies in
this stage are traditionally lacking
sanitation medicine contraceptive and
have more of an agricultural based
society in fact the majority of people
work in subsistence agriculture which is
when people produce food for themselves
and not for sale you can see that during
this stage migration is often focused
around the search for food here people
are just trying to meet their basic
needs in fact the majority of human
history actually took place during this
stage but as of today there are no
longer any countries that are in this
stage of the demographic transition
model now once the Industrial Revolution
happened we started to see countries and
societies transition into stage two of
the demographic transition the
Industrial Revolution led to the
enclosure movement increased rates of
urbanization allowed for more
specialization in society increased
society's food surplus and allowed for
advancements to be made in medicine
which would eventually lead to the
medical Revolution Europe and North
America were one of the first regions to
enter stage two due to the diffusion of
the Industrial Revolution eventually we
saw Africa Asia and Latin America start
to transition into stage two thanks to
further diffusion of technology and due
to the medical Revolution countries in
stage two continue to have a high CBR
but they start to see their CDR decrease
which leads to a population boost as the
CBR and CDR no longer cancel each other
out during this stage societies increase
their knowledge in medicine improve
their agricultural production increase
their food surplus and lower their IMR
and CDR all of which leads to a
population boom during this stage we
also start to see increased rates of
migration to urban areas this is due to
people seeking more Economic Opportunity
is in the city in the secondary sector
of the economy and also due to the fact
that many of the subsistence
agricultural production is now shifting
over into commercial agriculture besides
people moving from rural areas to urban
areas we may also see increased
emigration as more migrants will seek
economic opportunities in core countries
or more developed countries today we can
see that countries like Afghanistan are
in stage two of the demographic
transition model as seen here in their
population pyramid notice that the
majority of Afghanistan's population is
in the pre-reproductive years and
reproductive years which shows that the
country has an expanding population
eventually countries start to move into
stage three during this stage the CBR
starts to decrease along with the CDR
continuing to decrease these changes in
both the CBR and the CDR cause the nir
now to become more modern as more people
live in the cities they no longer have
the space or the economic need for
larger families medical advancements in
society lead to a higher life expectancy
and decrease the infant mortality rate
which leads to families having less kids
we may also start to see cultural
changes in society as well such as how
people view gender roles which may often
lead to women gaining more rights in
society and being allowed to participate
more in the economy as Society starts to
develop we start to see more and more
jobs open up in the manufacturing sector
which would be part of the secondary
sector of the economy we also start to
see more jobs starting to appear in the
tertiary sector of the economy as well
these new economic opportunities also
shift migration patterns as well
traditionally we see that less people
emigrate from a country that has more
jobs in the secondary and tertiary
sector as the economy advances migrants
will stay in their own country to be
able to explore the economic
opportunities that exist at home today
we can look at Mexico as an example of a
stage three country notice that when
we're looking at Mexico's population
pyramid the middle of the pyramid is
starting to fill out more people in the
country are now in their reproductive
years and post-reproductive years we can
see that Mexico is still growing as a
country but not as fast as it would have
been if it it was in stage two next is
stage four which is defined by a low CBR
and low CDR and actually now a low to
Flat Nar here countries start to see
more economic opportunities for all
citizens higher rates of education for
women more jobs in the tertiary sector
of the economy and more intra-regional
migration during the stage countries may
experience zpg which is zero population
growth this means that the country's CBR
and CDR are essentially the same causing
the nir to be zero this demographic
shift occurs for a variety of different
reasons we can see that economically
more people are focused on their career
and start to get married later in life
which causes them to have children later
as well which of course leads to smaller
family sizes as the economy grows we
will also see the cost of living
increase which decreases the amount of
disposable income that individuals have
which will further decrease the TFR of a
society as people start to feel like
they can no longer afford to either
start a family or support a larger
culturally we start to see Society offer
more education and opportunities for
women during this stage which allow
women to play a more active role in
society and the economy this shift also
allows women to pursue their own careers
and goals instead of being seen as child
Bear all these societal advancements
help further decrease the society's CDR
and IMR as people continue to gain more
access to wealth they also gain access
to Better Health Care Services and more
nutritious foods which helps increase
the average life expectancy and decrease
the death rate today we can see that
countries like the United States and
China are good examples of a stage four
country if we look at their population
pyramids we can see that they form more
of a box shape notice that the
population spread out between the
different age cohorts and while the
countries are no longer seeing a large
population boom they are also not seeing
a large decline I do want to highlight
that sometimes the country may move
between stages due to political policy
which can either promote people to have
more children or deter people from
having children government policies such
as the one child policies are are what
helped China transition into stage four
but we'll talk about those policies more
in our unit 2 topic 7 video lastly
there's the speculative stage five which
is defined by a negative nir hear a
country's birth rate goes below the CDR
causing the country's population to
decrease countries that could be in
stage five would be Japan or Germany
notice how the majority of their
population is located in the
post-reproductive years on their
population pyramids both of these
countries have a negative nir which
means their overall population is
decreasing in order for a country to be
growing they have to have a TFR above
2.1 this is known as the replacement
rate if their TFR is below 2.1 the
population will decrease over time
remember though migration can change
this and when we're talking about the
CBR CDR and nir we are looking at births
and deaths that take place in the
country these indicators do not factor
in Immigration or emigration okay so
that's the demographic transition model
next we have to go over the
epidemiologic transition model but
before we do don't forget to hit that
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exam now the epidemiologic model goes
along with the demographic transition
model there are a couple differences but
for the most part we can use this model
to better understand the different
causes of death for each stage of the
demographic transition model stage one
is defined by pestilence famine and
death here people are going to die from
a variety of different things parasitic
diseases infectious diseases animal
attacks pandemics epidemics food
shortages dirty water you name it you
can die to it one of the most well-known
killers in this stage was actually the
bubonic play now I mentioned epidemics
and pandemics remember an epidemic is a
disease that spreads through a region or
community and a pandemic is a disease
that spreads across multiple regions
countries or possibly the world another
term that you'll want to be familiar
with is and which is a disease that
stays in a particular area and does not
spread through an entire region or
Community now when countries transition
from stage 1 to stage two we start to
see a decrease in the amount of deaths
caused by Major diseases this is due to
a variety of different factors such as
advancements in medicine an increase in
food supply and a higher standard of
living stage two is defined by less
deaths and receding pandemic during
stage two Society gains access to new
technologies that not only improve the
standard of living but also help
increase the amount of food that is
produced societies also start to eat
more nutritious food and see
improvements in sanitation as well
remember during stage two is when the
Industrial Revolution and medical
Revolution occur these events decrease
the country's CDR but like we talked
about earlier in the video do not
decrease the CBR right away which leads
to societies to have a high nir as
societies continue to advance they
eventually enter stage three which is
defined by degenerative diseases here
people start to live longer and start to
die from diseases which are human caused
or caused by time for example heart
attacks from eating unhealthy food or
different types of cancer next to stage
four which is defined by fighting
degenerative diseases and longer life
expectancy this is when medical
advancements in society can delay
degenerative diseases which increases a
society's life expectancy during the
stage most individuals will continue to
improve their diets with more nutritious
foods and make better health decisions
like not choosing to use different drugs
but at the same time we can see that
these different advancements in society
can also promote negative habits as well
such as living a more sedentary
lifestyle or eating more junk food which
may lead to new health problems for
individuals such as obesity or diabetes
the last stage is stage five and it's
defined by the re-emergence of
infectious disease during this stage
parasitic diseases and infectious
diseases become more prevalent again
this can happen for a variety of
different reasons the first is the
evolution of diseases this is when a
society sees different diseases mutate
and develop resistance to antibiotics we
can see that over time as Society
continues to use antibiotics we may see
the development of superbugs which are
different strains of bacteria or viruses
that are resistant to most antibiotics
the next reason is an increased rate of
poverty and urbanization As Cities
become larger and more densely populated
it becomes easier for disease to spread
throughout a city and when people live
in poverty they are less likely to be
able to afford different medication and
health care services which can lead to
an increase in the CDR lastly there is
globalization when people travel around
the world they gain experiences share
ideas but also at the same time they
share germs This Global Travel and
connectivity can lead to pandemics such
as covid-19 we saw that cities that had
large international airports and densely
populated areas saw covid-19 spread
through their communities first we also
saw people who were in lower income
brackets had higher rates of covet since
they had less access to health care
services and were more likely to be
working in jobs where it was more more
likely to be exposed to the virus now
both the demographic transition model
and epidemiologic transition model are
important models for this class so
you'll want to make sure that you're
familiar with both of them all right now
you know the drill now comes the time to
practice what we have learned answer the
questions on the screen and when you're
done head on down to the comments
section below or the description of this
video to check your answers and if you
feel like you need some more practice
with these models head over to my
ultimate review packet for more help
with not only just these models but
everything else AP Human Geography
related as always thank you so much for
watching I'm Mr sin and I will see you
geographers next time online
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