Egypt Is A Ticking Time Bomb.
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the economic and social challenges facing Egypt, including rising food prices, population growth, and geopolitical issues. It highlights how Egypt, once reliant on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine, faces food inflation and the impact of regional conflicts on tourism and the Suez Canal's profits. Additionally, it addresses the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam's potential threat to Egypt's water supply and the country's struggle with energy exports. The script also critiques President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi's economic policies and massive infrastructure projects amidst a looming financial crisis, suggesting Egypt is a 'ticking time bomb'.
Takeaways
- 🌿 Egyptian President El-Sisi suggested eating tree leaves like Prophet Muhammad during economic hardships, symbolizing Egypt's severe economic crisis.
- 📈 Egypt's inflation rates surged to historic highs, with food prices rising 45% in 2024, threatening the nation's social stability.
- 🍞 Bread is a critical component of Egyptian culture and economy, and the government subsidizes it to prevent public unrest. Rising bread prices have historically caused protests.
- 🌍 Egypt's population has exploded, tripling from 38 million in 1975 to 114 million today, causing immense pressure on its limited habitable land area and resources.
- 🌾 The Ukraine-Russia war deeply affected Egypt, as 70% of its wheat imports came from those countries, causing food insecurity.
- 💧 Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam poses a serious threat to Egypt, as it relies on the Nile for 90% of its water needs.
- 📉 Egypt's tourism sector, a major source of revenue, was severely hit by COVID-19, regional unrest, and war in neighboring areas.
- 💰 Egypt's reliance on international loans, particularly from the IMF, is worsening its economic problems, and the country's currency has sharply devalued.
- ⚡ Gas exports, once a booming sector, have also declined by 50% due to regional instability and technical issues with key gas fields.
- 🏛️ President El-Sisi is investing in massive infrastructure projects, including a new capital city and nuclear power plant, despite the country's economic struggles.
Q & A
What did Egyptian President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi suggest as a response to rising food prices?
-Egyptian President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi suggested that Egyptians could eat leaves from trees as a response to rising food prices, referencing the Prophet Muhammad's actions during his imprisonment near Mecca.
What are some of the modern 'plagues' affecting Egypt as described in the script?
-The modern 'plagues' affecting Egypt include geopolitical, economic, and social phenomena such as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on wheat prices, high inflation rates, the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on tourism, regional unrest affecting the Suez Canal and tourism, disputes over the Nile's water with Ethiopia due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and issues with the country's natural gas exports.
How has the Russia-Ukraine war impacted Egypt's wheat imports?
-The Russia-Ukraine war led to a significant increase in wheat prices on the global market, which is a major issue for Egypt as it relies heavily on wheat imports, particularly from Russia and Ukraine, to meet its population's needs.
What is the significance of 'Aish Baladi' in Egyptian culture and economy?
-Aish Baladi, a type of bread, is a crucial part of Egyptian cuisine and culture. It is also economically important as it is a staple food for the population, and its price is subsidized by the government, making it a matter of national security.
How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected Egypt's tourism industry?
-The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted Egypt's tourism industry, with the number of tourists dropping significantly and the sector's revenues falling by 70%. However, after the pandemic, tourism quickly revived and even reached an all-time high.
What is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and why is it a concern for Egypt?
-The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a massive infrastructure project that has been built on the Blue Nile. It is a concern for Egypt because it could disrupt the natural river flow of the Nile, which Egypt relies on heavily for freshwater needs, potentially causing significant losses during the dry season.
How has the regional instability affected Egypt's Suez Canal profits?
-Regional instability, particularly the war in Yemen and tensions in the Red Sea, has led to a decrease in traffic through the Suez Canal, resulting in a drop in profits, with one report indicating a 40 to 50% decrease.
What are some of the large-scale infrastructure projects that Egypt is planning despite its economic challenges?
-Despite economic challenges, Egypt is planning large-scale infrastructure projects such as the New Administrative Capital, a new nuclear power plant on the Mediterranean Coast, and a 2,000 km high-speed rail network.
What was the controversial decision by Egypt to sell its coastal city of Ras Al Hikma to the United Arab Emirates?
-Egypt sold its coastal city of Ras Al Hikma to the United Arab Emirates for $35 billion. While the area will remain under Egyptian jurisdiction, the sale was controversial as it involved selling a part of the country's territory for hard currency.
How has President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi's governance been compared to his predecessor Hosni Mubarak?
-President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi's governance has been compared to that of his predecessor Hosni Mubarak, as he has followed an authoritarian approach, maintaining the exchange rate artificially and borrowing heavily from international institutions, which has raised concerns about the country's solvency and direction.
Outlines
🌿 Economic Challenges and Historical Parallels in Egypt
The paragraph discusses the economic struggles faced by Egypt, particularly in 2022, as food prices rose significantly. Egyptian President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi humorously suggested eating leaves, echoing a historical act of Prophet Muhammad. The economic situation is compared to the biblical plagues of Egypt, but with modern geopolitical and economic challenges. The video transitions to discuss advancements in AI and Tech, specifically AI Video Creator, which can turn text prompts into videos, and then returns to Egypt's rich history and current population density issues, living on a small habitable land area compared to the vast deserts, leading to one of the highest population densities in the world.
📈 Egypt's Population Growth and Wheat Dependency
This paragraph delves into Egypt's high fertility rate, which, despite a slight decrease, continues to contribute to the country's rapid population growth. The implications of this growth on the availability of basic needs like jobs, education, and healthcare are explored. The paragraph also highlights Egypt's reliance on wheat imports, particularly from Russia and Ukraine, and the economic impact of the 2022 war on wheat prices. The cultural and economic significance of 'Aish Baladi' bread is emphasized, along with the government's efforts to maintain stable bread prices to prevent social unrest.
🏖️ Impact of Global Conflicts on Egypt's Economy
The paragraph addresses the negative effects of global conflicts on Egypt's tourism sector, which is a significant part of its economy. The decline in tourism due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent recovery is discussed, as well as the impact of regional instability on tourism sentiment. The Suez Canal's importance to Egypt's revenue is highlighted, along with the effects of regional conflicts on its profitability. Additionally, the paragraph touches on Egypt's challenges with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which threatens its water supply from the Nile, and the decline in Egypt's natural gas exports due to regional instability and technical issues.
🏛️ Egypt's Ambitious Infrastructure Projects Amidst Economic Turmoil
This paragraph discusses Egypt's ambitious infrastructure projects, including the construction of a new capital, a nuclear power plant, and a high-speed rail network, despite the country's economic difficulties. The focus is on President el-Sisi's efforts to address economic issues through borrowing, which has led to an artificially maintained exchange rate and investor concerns. The paragraph also mentions the controversial sale of Egyptian territories for hard currency and the public's reaction to these moves.
🚧 Egypt's Future: Economic Woes and Migration Pressures
The final paragraph discusses the growing pressure on Egyptians to immigrate due to the country's economic problems and the lack of living space. It contrasts the European Union's financial aid package for Egypt with the lack of long-term reforms under President el-Sisi's rule. The paragraph concludes with a reflection on the potential consequences of Egypt's challenges, likening the country to a 'ticking time bomb' and questioning whether the end result will mirror the era of Hosni Mubarak.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Food Prices
💡Geopolitical
💡Inflation
💡Tourism
💡Suez Canal
💡Nile River
💡Population Density
💡Subsidies
💡Economic Sanctions
💡Infrastructure Projects
💡Immigration
Highlights
Egyptian President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi suggested eating leaves as a response to rising food prices, drawing parallels to historical times.
Egypt faces a series of unfavorable geopolitical, economic, and social phenomena, akin to the biblical plagues.
The population of Egypt is highly concentrated in the Nile Valley and Delta due to the desert covering 96% of the country.
Egypt's population has tripled in 50 years, leading to one of the world's highest population densities.
The country is the world's largest importer of wheat, with bread being a staple food and a matter of national security.
Inflation in Egypt reached 40% in September 2023, with food prices hitting 45% in March 2024.
The COVID-19 pandemic dealt a massive blow to Egypt's tourism sector, which accounts for 50% of its income.
The Suez Canal, a major revenue source for Egypt, experienced a significant drop in profits due to regional unrest.
Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam threatens Egypt's reliance on the Nile's fresh water for consumption and agriculture.
Egypt's transition from a gas importer to a net exporter was short-lived due to regional instability and technical issues.
President el-Sisi's regime is characterized by authoritarian measures, similar to his predecessor Hosni Mubarak.
Egypt is borrowing heavily from international institutions to address economic challenges, impacting investor confidence.
Despite economic struggles, Egypt is planning ambitious infrastructure projects, including a new capital and a high-speed rail network.
Egypt's government has sold territory and is considering further sales to secure hard currency, sparking controversy.
The EU's financial aid package for Egypt is seen by some as a reward for the country's autocratic leadership, rather than a solution.
Egypt's growing population and shrinking resources are creating a ticking time bomb, with the government's actions potentially exacerbating the situation.
Transcripts
in 2022 in response to Rising food
prices Egyptian president Abdul fat L CI
suggested that Egyptians could always
eat leaves from trees as the prophet
Muhammad did while imprisoned near mecca
for three years this may not be a very
funny joke to the people of Egypt but it
says a lot about the current economic
situation of this ancient place in 2024
ad more and more disasters are raining
down on Egypt like the plagues that got
Yahweh brought upon the Egyptians as
described in the biblical Book of Exodus
this time however it is not a plague of
cattle locusts or the Turning of the
Nile's water into blood but a series of
very unfavorable geopolitical economic
and social phenomena that are turning
Egypt into a bump with a smoldering fuse
president LCC is trying to put it out
but he is doing it so clumsily that his
actions are beginning to look more and
more like those of his osted predecessor
hosne Mubarak let's take a look at
Egypt's modern plagues welcome to the
20s
[Music]
report consider leaving a like if you
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now no video about Egypt can begin
without mentioning the incredibly Rich
history of the site the vestiges of
ancient Egyptian civilization are still
widely present along with the pyramids
on the outskirts of KIRO and continue to
take your breath away Romans Greeks
Arabs faites Ottomans French and British
have all sought control of the
lifegiving Nile Delta Region since the
dawn of civilization which dates back at
least 6,000 years one conquest was
particularly consequential the Arab
campaign of 641 ad brought islamization
and arabization to the Egyptians that
continues in the country to this day the
rhythm of Egypt is always set by the
Nile Egypt covers an area of 1 million
square kilometers but almost all of its
population lives in the valley and Delta
of the Nile one of the largest rivers in
the world in contrast the riverine areas
alone account for only about 4% of the
country's total area the remaining 96%
is Desert thus the effective habitable
land area is only 40,000 square km
Egypt's population of 100 14 million
people effectively lives on an area
smaller than that of Estonia as a result
Egypt's real population density is one
of the highest in the world of course in
relation to the country's total land
area Egypt ranks distant on such a list
however if population density is counted
in relation to habitable land Egyptians
live in the most crowded area in the
world not counting small city states the
rate of 2,850 people per square
kilometer is twice that of Bangladesh
and more than three times that of
Palestine before the Gaza War the fact
is that Egypt has experienced
uncontrolled population growth over the
past 50 years from 38 million in 1975
Egypt's population has tripled to 114
million today for most of the 20th
century Egypt's fertility rate was well
above four or even five children per
woman peing at times at a staggering
seven children it has slowed somewhat in
recent years but is still at three
children per woman it means that Egypt's
population continues to grow if this
rate is maintained Egypt will have
population of 150 million in another 25
years while such a fertility rate is the
dream of many developed countries which
emulate all attempts to improve
demographics it is a big problem for
countries with the profile of Egypt or
Nigeria everyone wants to live in
dignity have basic living conditions met
like a good job education healthc care
and a future for themselves and their
children meanwhile with the country's
potential limited physically by
geography and economically by the
authoritarian regime and international
conditions the situation for Egypt and
Egyptians is starting to look pretty bad
and just as president LCC invoked the
Prophet Muhammad in describing the
difficult economic situation one might
as well invoke the biblical Egyptian
plagues described in the book of Exodus
in the context of Egypt's current
situation when Russian tanks rolled into
Ukraine on February 24th 2022 not only
the ukrainians or Europe in general was
shocked a cold sweat surely broke over
the face of the men watching these
events from more than 2,000 kilm away an
Egyptian official in charge of importing
wheat into the country when the war
broke out up to 70% of wheat Imports a
strategic commodity for Egyptian Society
came from Russia and Ukraine countries
now at War and it should be remembered
that Egypt is the world's largest
importer of this grain immediately after
the outbreak of the war the price of
wheat skyrocketed on World Markets
increasing by up to
60% for a country that has to feed a
population of more than 100 million
people with more than half of its needs
met by Imports and whose quisine is
based on bread called aish baladi this
was very bad news in an era of abundance
some may not realize it but something as
mundane as bread has all the qualities
to be called a strategic commodity
especially in a country like Egypt aish
baladi is a very important part of
Egyptian Cuisine and more broadly
culture and thus the economy the amount
of flour needed to produce this bread
and other wheat products for a
population of 114 million is so large
that it makes Egypt the world's largest
importer of wheat as a result the price
of a baladi is a matter of National
Security it should be not surprising
therefore that a baladi is subsidized up
to 70% of Egyptians rely on subsidized
bread and have done so for decades when
President anoir alad tried to abolish
the subsidized price of bread in 1977 it
ended in protests later dubbed the bread
riots some analysts also point to the
bread aspect in the context of the
outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2011
while the authorities mindful of the
potential consequences of rising the
price of bread ensured that it remained
stable they failed to see through the
logistics of the subsidy program the
inefficiency of the system led to cues
at bakeries which angered the public and
was one aspect of the growing discontent
which ultimately led to the removal of
hos Mubarak from office for these
reasons says almak Ari of the Arab
Center the Egyptian social contract is
closely tied to the price of bread and
more broadly to the price and
availability of all the basic
necessities of life meanwhile prices in
Egypt are rising at the highest rate
since measurements began inflation
reached 40% in September 2023 and has
now dropped only slightly to
32.5% the inflation rate looks even
worse if we look only at food prices
these reached 45% in March 2024 there is
little comfort in the fact that a few
months earlier it even exceeded 70%
Egypt social contract is therefore in
tatters and this threatens a new phase
of instability in the country but it is
only the beginning of the problems for a
country plagued by a myriad of other
disasters the plague literally was the
cid9 pandemic which stopped all human
traffic in the world for a country like
Egypt which depends on tourism for even
50% of its income it was a massive blow
the number of tourists dropped almost 4
World from more than 13 million in 2019
to 3 and A2 million in 2020 as a result
the sector's revenues suddenly dropped
by 70% fortunately for the country as
soon as the Corona virus pandemic was
over Egyptian tourism revived so much so
that it returned to its pre-c Corona
virus levels reaching an all-time high
of nearly 15 million visitors last year
the result would have been even more
impressive had it not been for the event
that began on October 7th in Israel and
the Gaza strep which border Egypt's
Sinai Peninsula the war abroad has not
affected Egypt's tourism sector as
drastically as Co but the regional
turmoil is clearly having an impact on
tourists sentiments and decisions Egypt
faces stagnation or more likely decline
in tourism by 2024 according to S&P
Global ratings Egypt's tourism revenues
will decline by 10 to 30% compared to
last year that's a problem because the
government's official plan PL call for
doubling the number of tourists by 2028
and for the sector to grow by 20%
annually the regional unrest not only
translates into losses in tourism but
also the plight of another pillar of
Egypt's economy the sus Canal built
during British rule the canal is a major
source of revenue for the Egyptian
economy Suz is one of the world's most
tangible examples of how geographic
location can be turned into financial
gain the problem is that the world in
Gaza but especially the war in Yemen is
directly affecting the sus Canal the
Egyptian president said in February that
the tensions in the Red Sea have
contributed to a 40 to 50% drop in
profits from the sus Canal so we are
talking about5 billion since sus
generates $10 billion in Revenue each
year even more recent figures from April
say that the traffic for the canal is
down 66% compared to April 2023 Wars
still the regional unrest is not just
emanating from the Eastern Red Sea Egypt
has a major problem with another
emerging Regional power also large in
population Ethiopia in this case too it
is a body of water that is the source of
the problem but not a canal or a sea but
a river the Nile for more than 10 years
Ethiopia has been building the largest
infrastructure project in its history
the grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam the
problem is that while the new sources of
electric electricity are essential for
the growing population of Ethiopians who
even outnumber Egyptians reaching now
130 million on the other hand they pose
a potentially deadly threat to Egyptians
living
Downstream Egypt relies on the Nile's
fresh water for up to 90% of its needs
not only for consumption but also for
agriculture and Industry meanwhile the
Blue Nile on which the Ethiopian dam is
placed feeds up to 85% of the main
riverbed Koo fears that the will disrupt
the natural river system and cause heavy
losses especially during that dry season
despite more than 10 years of dispute
the issue has not been resolved in a
diplomatic form during this time
Ethiopia has almost completed the
construction of the dam and finished
filling the reservoir which Egypt has
called an illegal action despite the
resumption of negotiations they contined
to produce no results as a result
Egypt's control over one of the
country's most important resources has
been curtailed and in times of drought
the Spectre of a lack of fresh water for
much of industry and agriculture will
stir Egyptians in the face but Egypt's
problems again do not end there 2018 was
a pivotal moment for Egypt's mining
sector it was the year that Egypt went
from being a gas importer to a net
exporter this was F to the start of gas
production from the zor offshore field
according to Italian oil Giant any which
has a 50% stake in the project it is the
largest field discovered on the
Mediterranean shelf production and
therefore exports grew steadily pecking
in 2022 when Egypt exported 8 million
tons of LNG but after that there was a
drastic drop of 50% in 2023 and now it
has come to the point where Egypt has
completely stopped LG exports since May
again Regional instability is to blame
quote men ship owners have been
navigating alternate routes such as
taking the longer voyages around the
Cape of Good Hope as a result Egyptian
exports have taken a hit S&P Global
analysts right in addition after the
start of the Hamas War Israel
temporarily halted production from the
Tamar field from which gas was later
sent to Egyptian liquefaction facilities
and then
re-exported yet most of the problems are
at the zor field itself where the
operator is unable to deal with leaks in
the system that allow water to enter as
a result another source of revenue for
koiro has dried up one that was
generating up to $8 billion in profits
by
2022 hanging all over this is the
problem of 2 million Palestinians
crumped into the southern Gaza Strip
whom the Israeli authorities would most
likely to see immigrate to Egypt or
other Arab countries Egypt doesn't want
to hear about it and given chos mounting
problems it's hardly surprising so how
the country's ruling Elites are
navigating Egypt in this difficult times
unfortunately it's hard not to succumb
to the illusion that it too can be
counted as another Egyptian
Scourge the Arab Spring Cup heal brought
LCC to power and while some of the
population hoped for changes in the way
the country operates the fact is that
Abdul fata heri is following in the
authoritarian footsteps of his
predecessor hosne Mubarak LCC is already
well passed the 13d of mubarak's Reign
who has conducted the country for 30
years though LCC recently extended that
period for himself in December in the
general elections he secured another
six-year term garnering a breathtaking
90% approval rating of course the
election had little to do with
Democratic processes as Human Rights
Watch recalls the campaign was
characterized by arrest of opposition
members intimidation and requirements
for candid that effectively prevented
any F competition LCC effectively
silenced the dangerously gaining
popularity of Ahmed Tanta among others
LCC is trying to seek a panasa for the
country's piling up economic problems
mainly with massive borrowing from the
international monetary fund and World
Bank among others the problem is that in
doing so he has artificially maintained
the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound
artificially pumping up the currency
against among others the US dollar this
as well as the lack of announced reforms
and the aforementioned uninspiring
Regional situation is worsening the
already not so good mood of investors
nonetheless the latest IMF loan TR has
obligated kro to quote let the currency
lose and the currency as a result
dropped on the 5th of March from a level
of 30 Egyptian pounds per $1 to 47
Egyptian pounds per one1 us doar however
Egypt's economic situation remains
extremely difficult ult and the country
is running out of hard currency such a
situation has creditors worried about
Egypt's solvency although the country's
prime minister Mustafa madbouly assures
that the country will meet all of its
obligations despite such a dire economic
situation and the successive plagues
that have befallen the country Egypt is
contemplating incredible infrastructure
projects LCC like any self-respecting
autocrat wants to live a tangible Legacy
that's what the new capital is supposed
to be the new kro government District
now under construction will cost a
staggering 58 billion dollar 50 km east
of Ciro towering skycrapers can already
be seen surrounded by desert but that is
not the only big project LCC has in mind
in addition to the new capital a new $25
billion nuclear power plant on the
Mediterranean Coast is to be built and a
2,000 km highspeed rail net Network that
the government says will eventually cost
$23 billion is also planned while new
housing electricity and
interconnectivity are inevitably
essential for Egypt's ever growing
population many believe that with 60% of
the country leaving below or on the edge
of poverty the ruling Administration
priorities are upside down but LCC and
his cabinet are not giving up even as
the treasury begins to run out of
borrowed money in February it was
announced that Egypt has sold its
coastal city of Ras Al hecma to the
United Arab Emirates for $35
billion although in practice of course
the area will remain under Egyptian
jurisdiction and Egypt itself will
receive a 35% stake in the project from
the Emirates investment fund adq the
news caused controversy in Egypt the
coastal Russell hekma is considered
quote Egypt's most beautiful beach with
white sand and turquoise water
considering that the tourism is Egypt's
Crown Jewel KIRO has sold the Pearl in
this Crown to the Emirates some say this
is not the first trait of territory for
hard currency committed by LCC in 2016
in another controversial move Egypt
relinquished its rights to the islands
of tyan and sfir recognizing Saudi
Arabia's sovereignty over them both
islands are strategically located at the
entrance to the Gulf of akaba which is
the Eastern side of the Sinai to the
event sparked protests in the country
and was met with great incomprehension
by Egyptians according to the Israelis
it was supposed to cost the Saudis $25
billion interestingly shortly after the
announcement of the recent project with
the Emirates it was reported that Cairo
is preparing another deal again aiming
to sell another Resort this time on the
Red Sea Coast very close to the islands
of tyan and sfir to whom you guessed it
the Saudis the project is said to be
worth $15
billion not surprisingly millions of
Egyptians do not see their future in a
country plagued by economic problems
with shortage of living space ruled by
yet another autocrat whose actions
instead of helping are making the
situation worse the pressure to
immigrate is growing where can one flee
to the choice is simple the nearest
prosperous place is Europe meanwhile the
immigration mood in Europe is very
different from what it was 10 years ago
and even Germany which used to be a
supporter of mass immigration is
changing its policy that's why the union
is trying to stop the process how with
money in March Brussels announced a 7.4
billion EUR a package for Egypt in
theory the package is designed to help
Egypt get back on track and secure a
future for its people on the ground
still looking at the history of LC's
rule there is little evidence of that
introduction of far-reaching reforms
that would help Egypt in the long term
to be fair these reforms would have to
start with LCC himself and the state's
governance system it is therefore hard
not to see the eu's move as throwing
money at the problem Human Rights Watch
called the deal a quote reward for
Egypt's autocratic leader more plagues
seem to be falling on Egypt perhaps the
biggest one of all is building new
offices for itself in the new government
District that is being commissioned
ultimately however the victims of the
plagues are the Egyptians themselves
whose population grow by nearly 2
million a year and as the country
Teeters on the brink of insolvency the
region is gried by instability in every
direction the Nile's resources are
shrinking and the living space is
beginning to run out Egypt is becoming a
ticking Time Bomb Abdul fat l c is
trying to diffuse it but his actions are
beginning to look more and more like the
story of hos Mubarak the question
remains will the end of the story be the
same
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