Is Bitcoin FINALLY Ready For The Parabolic Phase Of The Cycle?

Summary

This video script explores whether Bitcoin is poised for a parabolic market phase. It analyzes Bitcoin's current downtrending channel, its recovery, and the need for a weekly candle close above the channel top to signal a breakout. The script discusses the importance of the channel bottom as a support level, the potential resistance at 71k, and the historical patterns suggesting a breakout 150-160 days post-harvest. It also touches on the significance of the 21-week EMA as a bullish indicator and the possibility of a reaccumulation phase before a true breakout.

Takeaways

• 📈 Bitcoin is currently in a downtrending channel on the weekly time frame, with recent price action showing signs of recovery towards the channel's top.
• 📊 Historical channel bottom rebounds suggest it takes on average 2 to 4 weeks for Bitcoin's price to move from the channel bottom to the top.
• 🔄 For a sustainable breakout to new highs, Bitcoin needs a weekly candle close above the channel top, which has not happened in the channel's life cycle.
• 🌟 The channel bottom is significant as it represents the old all-time high resistance, now acting as a new all-time high support for the past six months.
• 📊 On the monthly time frame, the channel bottom shows as a point of rejection, with Bitcoin holding and retesting this level as strong support.
• 🚀 A breakout from the current channel would face the next resistance at 71k, which is historically a crucial level before a major price movement.
• 🔄 Sideways price action and downside wicks are common in the reaccumulation phase post the 'harvest' event, typically followed by a breakout after 150 to 160 days.
• 📊 A weekly close above 6,600 is seen as a key level to reclaim support and end the downside deviation bargain buying period, solidifying Bitcoin's return into the range.
• 📉 The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) is a bull market indicator; deviations below it in a bull market present bargain buying opportunities.
• ⏳ Bitcoin is not quite ready for a parabolic phase yet, but it is setting the stage with key price actions and consolidation within the reaccumulation range.
• 📅 Historical patterns suggest a breakout is likely around late September, approximately 150 to 160 days post 'harvest', aligning with the current cycle's trajectory.

Q & A

What is the current trend of Bitcoin according to the video script?

The script suggests that Bitcoin is in a downtrending channel on the weekly time frame and has been trying to find support to enable price expansion above the channel bottom.

What does the script indicate about the recovery of Bitcoin's price?

The script indicates a fantastic recovery of Bitcoin's price after deviating below the channel, suggesting a potential uptrend from the bottom to the top of the channel.

How long does it typically take for Bitcoin's price to move from the channel bottom to the channel top according to the script?

On average, it takes two weeks for Bitcoin's price to move from the channel bottom to the top, with a maximum of four weeks, including periods of consolidation.

What is the significance of a weekly candle close above the channel top for Bitcoin?

A weekly candle close above the channel top would indicate a breakout to new highs in a sustainable fashion, ending the series of lower highs and suggesting bullish momentum.

Why is the channel bottom considered important in the script?

The channel bottom is important because it represents the old all-time high resistance, which is now acting as a new all-time high support for the past six months.

What is the significance of the 71k resistance level mentioned in the script?

The 71k level is the high resistance of the overall reaccumulation range historically seen around the halving event, and breaking this resistance is crucial for Bitcoin to move towards new all-time highs.

How does the script describe the sideways price action and downside wicks seen in the cycle?

The script describes sideways price action and downside wicks as part of the reaccumulation phase post-halving, which is a period of consolidation before a potential breakout.

What is the significance of a weekly close above 6,600 for Bitcoin according to the script?

A weekly close above 6,600 signifies that the reaccumulation range low has been reclaimed as support, ending the downside deviation bargain buying period and solidifying Bitcoin's return into the range.

What does the script suggest about the timing of Bitcoin's potential breakout?

The script suggests that historically, Bitcoin tends to breakout 150 to 160 days after the halving, indicating that the breakout is a month away based on the current timeline.

What is the role of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) in the script's analysis?

The 21-week EMA is considered a bull market EMA, and deviations below it in a bull market represent bargain buying opportunities, with the script noting that reclaiming this EMA is part of the process for a potential breakout.

How does the script view the current state of Bitcoin in relation to the parabolic phase of its cycle?

The script views Bitcoin as not quite ready for the parabolic phase but setting the stage for it by solidifying the range low as support and preparing for a future breakout.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Bitcoin's Downtrend Channel and Recovery Analysis

The first paragraph discusses Bitcoin's current market situation, focusing on a downtrending channel observed on the weekly time frame. It details the recent price deviations and recovery attempts, suggesting that Bitcoin is trying to find support to push above the channel's bottom. The paragraph also examines historical channel rebounds and estimates the time it takes for price to move from the channel bottom to the top, typically one to four weeks. The importance of the channel bottom as a former all-time high resistance turned support is highlighted, with the monthly time frame providing a clearer picture of this support level's strength. The potential for a breakout to new highs is predicated on a weekly candle closing above the channel top, which would signify the end of a series of lower highs and a move towards a more bullish market trend.

05:00

🚀 Preparing for a Breakout: Key Resistance Levels and EMA Analysis

The second paragraph delves into the prerequisites for Bitcoin to achieve a sustainable breakout and new highs. It emphasizes the need for a weekly close above 67,500 to break the reaccumulation range high and discusses the significance of closing above the channel bottom at 58,700 and subsequently above 61,500 to solidify the ascent. The paragraph outlines the importance of establishing a strong base at the bottom of the reaccumulation range and the necessity of breaking the series of lower highs since mid-March. It also touches on the historical tendency for breakouts to occur 150 to 160 days after the 'harvest' or market peak, suggesting a potential breakout is about a month away. The discussion includes the role of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) as a bullish indicator and the opportunities for bargain buying during deviations below this EMA.

10:02

🔄 Assessing Readiness for a Parabolic Phase in Bitcoin's Cycle

The final paragraph assesses whether Bitcoin is ready for a parabolic phase in its market cycle. It concludes that while Bitcoin is not quite ready, it is setting the stage for a future breakout. The paragraph outlines the steps needed for Bitcoin to solidify its position, including reclaiming the 21-week EMA, breaking the lower highs, and revisiting the reaccumulation range high with a weekly close above 71,500. It also discusses the historical context of breakouts occurring approximately 150 to 160 days post-harvest, indicating a potential breakout in late September. The paragraph wraps up by noting that Bitcoin is nearing the end of the post-harvest reaccumulation phase and is aligning more closely with traditional market cycles.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates without a central bank or single administrator. It is the first and most well-known cryptocurrency and is often used as a benchmark for the entire crypto market. In the video, Bitcoin's market behavior and potential price movements are the central focus, with discussions on its price trends, support levels, and resistance points.

💡Parabolic phase

A parabolic phase in financial markets refers to a period of rapid increase in the price of an asset, often characterized by a sharp upward curve on a price chart. In the context of the video, the parabolic phase is a potential future state for Bitcoin's market cycle, where the price could experience a significant and rapid rise.

💡Market cycle

A market cycle in economics and finance refers to the recurring fluctuations in the economy or financial markets, typically consisting of four phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. The video discusses Bitcoin's current position within its market cycle and speculates on its readiness for a parabolic phase.

💡Downtrending channel

A downtrending channel is a technical analysis pattern that indicates a bearish trend in the market, where the price of an asset is moving within a downward-sloping channel formed by two parallel trendlines. The script mentions that Bitcoin is forming such a channel on the weekly time frame, suggesting a period of declining prices.

💡Support and resistance

In technical analysis, support and resistance are levels on a price chart where the price of an asset tends to stop falling (support) or rising (resistance). These levels are important for understanding potential price reversals or breakouts. The video discusses Bitcoin's support and resistance levels, particularly how the old all-time high resistance has now become a new support level.

💡EMA (Exponential Moving Average)

The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a type of moving average that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. It is used to identify trends and is considered a lagging indicator. In the video, the 21-day EMA is mentioned as a key indicator for Bitcoin's market trend, with deviations below it suggesting potential buying opportunities.

💡Reaccumulation range

A reaccumulation range refers to a period after a significant market event, such as a 'harvest' or peak, where the market consolidates and traders accumulate positions before the next major move. The video script discusses the importance of Bitcoin's reaccumulation range and its role in setting up for a potential breakout.

💡Weekly candle close

In technical analysis, a weekly candle close refers to the closing price of an asset at the end of a week, represented by a candlestick on a price chart. It is significant because it can indicate the overall sentiment for the week. The video emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin's weekly candle closing above certain price levels to confirm a bullish trend.

💡Breakout

A breakout in finance refers to the movement of a security's price beyond a defined technical boundary, such as a resistance level. It often signals the start of a new trend. The video discusses the conditions under which Bitcoin could experience a breakout to new highs, including a weekly close above certain resistance levels.

💡Historical price tendencies

Historical price tendencies refer to patterns or behaviors observed in the past that may be used to predict future price movements. The video script uses historical data to suggest that Bitcoin's breakout from its reaccumulation range could occur around 150 to 160 days after a significant market event, known as 'the harvest'.

💡Bull market

A bull market is a condition where securities prices are rising or are expected to rise. It is characterized by optimism, investment, and upward price movement. The video mentions the bull market EMA as a key indicator for Bitcoin's current and potential market sentiment.

Highlights

Bitcoin is forming a downtrending channel on a weekly time frame.

Price has been deviating below the channel for the past four weeks, seeking support for an uptrend.

Previous channel bottom rebounds indicate a pattern of price movement from the channel bottom to the top.

The average time for an uptrend from the channel bottom to the top is two to four weeks.

A potential price target for the uptrend is 67K, with the possibility of exceeding the channel top.

For a sustainable breakout to new highs, a weekly candle close above the channel top is necessary.

The channel bottom represents the old all-time high resistance, now acting as new support.

Monthly time frame shows a strong support at the channel bottom, crucial for Bitcoin's stability.

A breakout from the weekly channel would face the next resistance at 71K.

Historically, sideways price action and downside wicks are common post-harvest events.

A weekly close above 6600 would signal the end of the downside deviation and solidify Bitcoin's return to the range.

A weekly close above 67500 is needed to break the series of lower highs and indicate bullish momentum.

Bitcoin needs to close above the channel bottom at 58700 for a strong weekly ascent.

The 21-week EMA is a key indicator for potential bargain buying opportunities in a bull market.

Deviations below the 21-week EMA have historically represented good buying opportunities.

Bitcoin is not quite ready for a parabolic phase but is setting the stage for a future breakout.

Historical patterns suggest a breakout 150 to 160 days post-harvest, which is about a month away.

Bitcoin's price action needs to appreciate quickly to the top of the channel within the next month for a potential breakout.

The video discusses the importance of reaccumulation and consolidation in preparing for a future parabolic rally.

Transcripts

is Bitcoin finally ready for the

parabolic phase in its Market cycle

let's dive right into it subscribe to

the channel for more videos like this in

the future like this video If you

enjoyed content like this going forward

and let's dive right into it so Bitcoin

is forming this downtrending channel on

the weekly time frame and over the past

3 weeks actually four weeks now we were

deviating below the channel trying to

find a support in order to enable price

expansion above the bottom of this

Channel and we're seeing a fantastic

recovery here and if you look at recent

previous channel bottom rebounds whether

after deviations or not you can see that

it takes price from the channel bottom

to the channel top it can take one two

weeks right if we go back down to the

channel and then back up to it it takes

two weeks as well so here as well one

week two weeks and then maybe four weeks

hold in here in total so a 4 we uptrend

really from the bottom to the top it

takes 2 weeks on average four weeks at

most where most of this was actually

just consolidating at the highs here

again two to three weeks of price action

going up towards the upside and this is

the first week so at soonest next week

we'll be back at

67 K with potential for upside wicking

Beyond

this channel top and for Bitcoin to

really be ready for a breakout to new

highs in a sustainable fashion because

these upside Wicks are unsustainable

price action it is representing extreme

price action so the extremities of price

action where fomo buyers are foming in

here but the sell pressure is just too

strong so for price to really be ready

to break out to much higher levels than

just this channel top at 67

68k it would need to weekly candle close

above here and once we get a weekly

candle close for the first time in the

entire life cycle of this weekly Channel

weekly close Beyond here would be

fantastic it would be bullish it would

mean that we're ending this series of

lower highs which is representing the

channel top but a weekly close Beyond

here wouldn't be sufficient and I'll

tell you about that in just a moment

moment because first of all we have to

understand why this channel bottom is so

important and the fact is that it

represents the old all-time high

resistance which is now acting as a new

all-time high support for the past six

months and on the monthly time frame

this is even better shown because this

was a point of rejection this was a

point of rejection and for the past 6

months we've been holding here really

holding nicely here but of course

producing those downside Wicks as part

of volatile retesting of this old

resistance into new support and that's

phenomenal to see because this is

definitely not only a crucial support

but a very strong one at the same time

and once we break out from that Weekly

Channel you can notice that there will

be another resistance that's going to be

the absolute bus it will be the final

bus that Bitcoin needs to break and

that's

71k this range high resistance of the

overall reaccumulation range that we

tend to see historically Across Time

Around the Haring event and especially

after the harving event we've seen it in

2020 we've seen it in

2016 and we're seeing it now in

2024 we tend to see sideways price

action for multiple months and we tend

to also produce downside deviation

moments via downside wicks for the most

part we've seen that a lot throughout

the cycle but in this reaccumulation

range we've seen downside wicking and

even downside deviations via candle

bodied uh candles here so a weekly close

above 6,600 that's going to register the

fact that this reaccumulation range low

has been reclaimed as support especially

if we are to dip into the bottom of that

reaccumulation range low retest it

successfully and then enable a move

towards the upside that can also be a

possibility but a weekly close above

6,600 that's going to end this downside

deviation bargain buying period and

solidify Bitcoin points return into the

range and for price to Rally towards the

top of this reaccumulation range it will

need to Simply break the channel top

here it will need to break this series

of lower highs that's been persisting

since March mid-march of this year

that's why we need a weekly candle close

above here to give us Credence and

strength that this sells side pressure

at this channel top here at these lower

highs is dissipating and the blls are

regaining control weekly close above

67,500 and we will manage to break to

the reaccumulation Range High of

71,000 and of course before then we need

to Simply weekly close above the channel

bottom which is

58700 which is pretty much really well

positioned for a weekly close like that

at least it needs to close above

61,500 to further solidify this Ascent

across the channel so we need a few key

weekly closes and Bitcoin is really well

positioned for that for me I just like

price to weekly close above 6,600

because that's going to position price

for a consolidation across the range and

across the channel of course but are we

ready for this parabolic phase in the

cycle of course the answer is that we

need to continue solidifying a base at

the bottom of this re accumulation range

low solidifying at a base as a base

retesting it as support solidifying

those weekly closes above 6,600 to

position us for a price move across the

range and also across this Channel and

to do that we need to get these weekly

closes in the books and after doing so

we'd need to break those lower highs of

course as we spoke about and then

revisit these reaccumulation range highs

and that's when we'll need a weekly

close above here 71 A2 K so $71,500

that's what we need to weekly close

above because as you can see here upside

wicking if we zoom in here upside

wicking and upside Wicks into the top of

that re accumulation range even here

maybe short falling a bit short but

weekly closing above this red

reaccumulation Range High of 71,500

would be sufficient to enable a breakout

into a parabolic rally for Bitcoin to

new alltime highs and into price

Discovery the question is however is it

time for that and historically speaking

we tend to break out 150 days after the

harving that is exactly what 2016 is

suggesting because it took 150 days for

Bitcoin to break out from its 2016 post

having reaccumulation range and 2020 for

example well we saw a 160 day breakout

after the harving so 2020 is suggesting

160 days 2016 is suggesting missing 150

days roughly speaking so anything

between

150 160 days is when we should be

breaking out and that

is a month away roughly speaking so we

need to gain ground within this range

and we have a whole month to do that and

if we see price action appreciate very

quickly to the top of this Channel and

we still have a month 20 days until the

historically recurring uh moment for a

breakout from the reaccumulation range

is occurring then maybe we have a time

for another rejection from this channel

bottom it really depends how quickly

will bitcoin's price action go towards

the upside but the really important

thing here is that we're currently in

the process of potentially reclaiming

the 21 we exponential moving average

this is a bull market EMA and the fact

that we lose it sometimes and sometimes

reclaim

well that is simply what happens with

EMAs we oscillate around them below them

above them whenever we deviate below

them in Bull markets those tend to

represent fantastic bargain buying

opportunities and we can see that not

only from from of course this period in

the market but also this period where we

deviated below that 21 we EMA that bull

market EMA we downside Wicked below it

here briefly downside Wicked below it

briefly here as well and of course we

were here in a bare market so downside

deviations over the ball Trend below the

28 21 we EMA those are fantastic bargain

buying opportunities and that simply is

the case even in this 2021 cycle where

we deviated below the green 21 we moving

average and that was a fantastic bargain

buying opportunity and also here as well

I understand that 500 days after the

Haring is when we tend to lose this 21

we moving average for a long time to

enter a bare market so that's a thing to

mention that once we're 500 days after

Hing and lose the green moving average

the 21 we EMA that is dangerous

territory because that's probably going

to be entering a bar Trend and we're

nowhere close to 500 days after the

Haring we are only

13330 days after the harving so we still

have a tremendous amount of time because

we haven't even entered the post Haring

parabolic upside phase yet we're still

finishing up the post Haring

reaccumulation phase and we still have a

month for that to continue for that

consolidation to continue so there is

still time before we break out late

September is when this breakout is

scheduled according to historical price

Tendencies where Bitcoin tends to break

out 160 days after the Haring or 15 50

days or so after the Haring so those are

really things to watch out going forward

is Bitcoin ready for a parabolic upside

in its cycle right now no it's not quite

ready but it's really Paving the way

setting the right things in action and

in motion to really prepare itself for

that breakout in the future it just

needs to solidify this range low as

support it will do that in the next few

days it will need to break these lower

highs in the future and depending on

when that happens we'll know whether we

have one last rejection left in the tank

for Bitcoin and then of course it needs

to revisit the reaccumulation Range High

and weekly close above

715,000 for Bitcoin it has a few hurdles

still to jump through but we're now

getting in the clear finishing up this

bargain buying downside deviation Zone

and getting in the clear to

resynchronizing with this range and also

getting very close to resynchronizing

with traditional Haring Cycles because

we know that we were slightly

accelerating in the cycle and this

consolidation period has reduced that

rate of acceleration by a considerable

amount I talk about that in this video

in the previous video so check it out

but in any case that's about it for

today's video subscribe to the channel

for more videos like this in the future

like this video if you enjoy content

like this going forward I'm re cap and

I'll speak to you in the next one speak

to in