Navigating the Future: AI, Public Thinking, Global Challenges: #Futurist Ufuk Tarhan | Gerd Leonhard
Summary
TLDRThe speaker discusses the broader implications of public thinking beyond technology and business, emphasizing the importance of sustainability, AI governance, and ethical considerations in a future shaped by geopolitical shifts and technological advancements. They highlight the potential of AI to improve efficiency but also the risks of losing control to general intelligence. The transcript touches on the challenges of inflation, demographic shifts, and the need for intergenerational collaboration to address climate change, ensuring equitable access to technology, and fostering hope for a sustainable future.
Takeaways
- 🌍 The concept of 'public thinking' focuses on discussing broad, significant societal issues like sustainability, AI governance, and ethics, rather than just future technological advancements.
- 🤖 There is a growing concern about the development of general artificial intelligence (AGI) and its potential to surpass human intelligence in many areas, raising issues of control, ethics, and job displacement.
- 🔥 The speaker warns against repeating mistakes from the past, like prioritizing profit over sustainability, as seen in industries like oil and gas, which contributed to climate change.
- 🌱 Technology has the potential to solve many global issues, such as healthcare, water, and food, but it's essential to use it wisely and ensure equitable access across all nations.
- 🇹🇷 Turkey's unique geopolitical position offers both advantages and challenges, particularly with its proximity to volatile regions and its role in future global power dynamics.
- 👵 The world is facing a demographic shift, with both aging populations and young people feeling anxious about their futures due to economic and technological uncertainties.
- 🧠 There is a call for a balanced approach to AI development, focusing on enhancing human life and productivity while being mindful of the potential risks of over-reliance on AI systems.
- 🌏 Young people globally are feeling hopeless about the future due to climate change, political instability, and automation threats. There's a need for inspiring them with a vision of a positive future.
- 🏛️ Economic inequality and lack of capital creation are contributing to social unrest and shifts towards new financial systems like cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
- 😟 The speaker describes the current era as an 'anxiety period,' characterized by widespread fears about climate, economics, technology, and social stability, urging a focus on solving these issues and rebuilding trust in leadership.
Q & A
What is the concept of 'public thinking' as mentioned in the transcript?
-The concept of 'public thinking' refers to the collective thought process and discussions on topics that are not just about the future or technology, but encompass broader societal issues such as sustainability, artificial intelligence governance, and other public concerns that are important for society's well-being.
Why is the speaker concerned about the focus on making money with AI without considering other important factors?
-The speaker is concerned because an exclusive focus on profit can lead to negative consequences, as exemplified by the environmental impact of oil, gas, and coal industries. They argue for a balanced approach that considers ethics, safety, and governance in AI development.
What does the speaker mean by 'futurism' and how does it relate to Turkey?
-Futurism, in this context, refers to the study and exploration of the future, encompassing various aspects beyond technology and business. The speaker notes that in Turkey, the term 'futuristic' is similar to 'futurism,' and there is a significant awareness and discussion about the future, which is different from some other countries like Germany.
How does the speaker view the role of intelligent assistants in practical business applications of AI?
-The speaker sees intelligent assistants as key to improving efficiency, making processes faster, cleaner, and more sustainable. They believe that the practical application of AI, which involves taking over routine tasks, constitutes about 90% of its business use.
What are the potential dangers the speaker sees in the pursuit of general intelligence in AI?
-The speaker is concerned about losing control over AI systems that can reason and act independently. They worry about the possibility of AI making critical decisions without human oversight, especially in sensitive fields like medicine, and the ethical and legal implications of such scenarios.
Why does the speaker believe that the current focus on the amazing potential of AI is limiting?
-The speaker finds the focus on the positive aspects of AI tiring and limiting because it overlooks the need for discussing how to collaborate, build a better future, and ensure humanity remains central in the face of technological advancements.
What geopolitical changes does the speaker predict and how might they affect countries like Turkey?
-The speaker predicts a shift from the dominance of America, Russia, and China to a multipolar world where Europe, India, Brazil, and possibly Turkey become significant powers. They suggest that Turkey might emerge as a regional leader, especially if it can adapt to a world less focused on resource control.
How does the speaker describe the impact of inflation on Turkey's social and economic conditions?
-The speaker describes inflation as causing not only economic and financial difficulties but also significant social problems. They mention the rise of an unregistered economy, ethical issues, corruption, and the strain on social security due to uncontrolled immigration.
What are the speaker's thoughts on the necessity of technology in solving global issues?
-The speaker believes that technology has the potential to solve many practical problems, such as in healthcare, water, and food. However, they emphasize the importance of using technology wisely and ensuring equal access across developed and developing countries.
How does the speaker view the role of young people in shaping the future, and what challenges do they face?
-The speaker sees young people as the definers of the future but acknowledges that they face a range of anxieties, including climate change, automation, and job displacement by AI. They call for efforts to instill hope and belief in a positive future for young people.
What does the speaker suggest as the 'anxiety period' and why is it significant?
-The speaker refers to the current times as the 'anxiety period' due to widespread concerns about climate, finance, social issues, and politics. This period is significant because it reflects a global sense of urgency and the need for solutions to alleviate these anxieties.
Outlines
🌐 Public Thinking and Future Challenges
The speaker introduces the concept of 'public thinking,' emphasizing the importance of discussing broader topics such as sustainability, AI governance, and the ethical implications of technological advancements beyond just business applications. They highlight the global nature of these issues, comparing perceptions of futurism in Turkey and Germany, and discuss the geopolitical shifts that have occurred in the last five years, including the rise of Europe and India as major powers. They also express concern over the environmental impact of unchecked industrial growth and the potential for Turkey to become a regional leader in a post-oil era. The paragraph concludes with a discussion on the negative societal impacts of inflation, corruption, and unregistered economies, as well as the challenges of immigration and demographic shifts.
🤖 The Impact and Control of Artificial Intelligence
This paragraph delves into the dual nature of artificial intelligence, acknowledging its potential to streamline and improve various aspects of life through intelligent systems while also expressing concern over the pursuit of general intelligence that could surpass human capabilities. The speaker questions the future role of humans in decision-making processes when AI systems become more autonomous and knowledgeable. They also address the potential language barriers and the need for AI to be accessible and understandable across different languages. The paragraph concludes with a reflection on the current state of AI, its high cost, and the infrastructural demands for its widespread use, suggesting that within five years, advancements like nuclear fusion and solar energy could make AI more scalable and feasible.
🔮 Preparing for a Future with Super Intelligence
The speaker forecasts a future where super intelligence could become a reality within the next decade, leading to significant societal and personal transformations. They discuss the mental and emotional challenges people may face as they adapt to these changes, including the potential need for a universal basic income and the redistribution of work and productivity. The paragraph also touches on the importance of focusing on individual development and mental health, as well as the need for young people to remain optimistic about the future despite the challenges posed by climate change, automation, and global instability. The speaker calls for a reimagining of the future and a more equitable distribution of technological advancements to prevent global polarization.
🌱 The Importance of Hope and Collaboration for Young People
The final paragraph focuses on the importance of instilling hope in young people and the need for intergenerational collaboration to address the myriad of challenges facing society. The speaker notes the anxiety and despair felt by young individuals due to global issues and the perceived lack of positive change. They emphasize the need to educate and involve the younger generation in shaping a better future, highlighting the demographic shifts and the challenges faced by both the young and the elderly. The speaker concludes by referring to the current era as the 'anxiety time,' where multiple societal alarms are ringing, and calls for the older generation to solve existing problems and educate the youth to ensure a more hopeful and inclusive future.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Public Thinking
💡Sustainability
💡Artificial Intelligence (AI) Governance
💡Futurism
💡Geopolitics
💡Inflation
💡Unregistered Economy
💡General Intelligence
💡Quantum Computing
💡Universal Basic Income (UBI)
💡Climate Anxiety
Highlights
Introduction of the concept of 'public thinking', emphasizing the importance of broader societal topics beyond just technology or business.
Discussion on sustainability, AI governance, and the ethical implications of pursuing profit at the expense of environmental concerns.
The distinction between 'futurism' in different languages and its significance in Turkey's cultural and academic discussions.
Critique of the narrow focus on technology and the need to consider broader societal impacts when discussing the future.
The geopolitical shifts and the rise of new global powers, indicating a change from resource control to other forms of influence.
Concerns about the ethical and social consequences of unchecked inflation, corruption, and the informal economy.
The impact of demographic shifts and uncontrolled immigration on social security and national identity.
The potential of intelligent systems to improve efficiency but also the risks associated with general intelligence and loss of control.
The importance of questioning AI decisions, especially in critical fields like medicine, and the challenge of understanding 'black box' algorithms.
The potential for AI to become multilingual and culturally adaptive, raising questions about global impact and ethical standards.
The need for a realistic assessment of AI's capabilities and the infrastructure required for its widespread adoption.
Predictions about the future of energy sources, including nuclear fusion and solar energy, and their role in supporting advanced computing.
The psychological and social implications of rapid technological change and the need for individuals to adapt and reskill.
Discussion on universal basic income, abundance, and the economic models that may emerge from increased productivity.
The importance of focusing on mental health and personal development in the face of rapid change and information overload.
The challenge of engaging young people in a positive vision of the future amidst feelings of hopelessness and despair.
The need for a global collaborative approach to tackle issues like climate change, ensuring that all countries are part of the solution.
The importance of addressing the anxieties of the 'anxiety period', including climate, income, and technological anxieties, to build a better future.
The role of the elder generation in solving current problems and educating the youth to create a more equitable and sustainable world.
Transcripts
I'm building a new idea on uh what I
call the public thinking which is
outside of the future topic so it's not
just about the feature but it's about
public topics so sustainability
artificial intelligence governance
things that are not just about the
future it doesn't have to be about
technology it doesn't have to be about
the future uh it doesn't have to be
about business and economics they are
more important things than to figure out
how to use AI for your business you know
these things are important but they're
not the only thing that's important like
with artificial intelligence we have
this issue there are practical issues of
course work and jobs routines and but
then there's also security and safety
issues about control and about
governance we can't be in a situation
where we are going to do whatever makes
money that is a very foolish proposal
because we did that with oil and gas and
coal and we did whatever we wanted to do
and now we end up in a world of
three or four degrees of warming still
people are ask what is futurism and and
turkey is a little bit different the
futuristic whatever it's called in
Turkish right people are aware of the
future Concept in Turkey more than I
find for example in Germany it's the tum
forer the future researcher most
academics it's like a whole different
thing so searching for futurist is only
meaningful in countries where the
language is bringing up futurist like in
Turkish it's almost the same right
futuristic and then in Spanish it's Futo
but to me that has been a fantastic
marketing thing and and that's been
great uh at the same time I I I don't
want to be put into a drawer of g talks
about technology in the future and how
great everything is that is just a
limiting thing also because many
companies they want you to speak about
the amazing world that's coming and that
is getting tiring because it's not just
about the amazing world that's coming
and the great potential and there's also
more important things like how do we
collaborate how do we build that new
world that's coming how do we make sure
we stay human and there's a strong
influence I think in Turkey from
humanism but basically this whole
discussion is a big thing in Turkey I
think and it will come back when the
time is right to think about the future
strategy of the country but also being
part of a larger story because now we're
moving into a world where the
geopolitics have changed so much in the
last five years it's no longer about
America Russia China only there's
America Russia is I we don't know China
but now there's Europe as a big Power
becoming a big Power and India is
becoming a big Power and then very soon
Brazil and turkey may come back as a
contender for that I think that when the
oil industry declines and the oil
question
evaporates so so it's no longer about
who has the oil say 10 15 years then
turkey may come into a position of being
the major leader of the region because
it's no longer going to be about the
control of the resources it's going to
be about other things the worst part of
this inflation is about the ethics and
the corruption and the unregistered
economy and inequality in trades and in
all terms unfortunately this
unregistered economy due to in high
inflation and exchange rates created a a
terrible environment in terms of ethics
and laws and Etc we are now compared
with Colombia so this is really very
disturbing and also the uncontrolled
immigration to Turkey from problematic
parts of the world the demographic shift
is so dangerous and so disturbing we are
not such a country that we close our
borders and we don't want anybody and so
on but this is incredibly high in the
world ranking turkey is the is I think
the number one country who accepts
everybody it is so dangerous and it is
creating trouble for Social Security and
all kind of security indeed we have to
solve these problem the inflation is not
creating only economic difficulties
financial difficulties but it is also
creat creating enormous social problems
you have difficult neighbors indeed our
geopolitic political situation is a kind
of Advantage but it is a curse at the
same time and while you're looking
around us you don't see any
peaceful area that we can say that ah on
that side we are okay there is no such
border no such Direction uh all
surroundings are extremely problematic
countries and
regions let me ask a couple of questions
about artificial intelligence one of the
key challenges here is this one on the
one hand I think that having intelligent
assistant like IIA not AI those kind of
systems are the key to making a lot of
things much better faster cleaner more
sustainable that those are practical
things like smart software Smart Systems
analytics and all these practical things
I think that's actually about 90% % of
the the business application of AI and
what it does it is that it takes our
routine jobs and it transfers some of
the routine to the machines the software
and Hardware so that we can do other
things yeah for example you don't fill
out the Excel spreadsheet but you have
an AI that makes the graph and and
things like that however on the other
hand now the the official goal of many
companies like open Ai and Microsoft
their goal is to invest event at general
intelligence so this is a machine that's
not just playing chess or go this is a
machine that has humanlike Intelligence
to beat us on every kind of work not
manual work but any sort of intellectual
knowledge work because basically what's
happening is when a machine has live
information in 800 languages of 10
billion people of every piece of
information about us and every kind of
media and we're getting there you know
in the next 5 years then it can put
together a map of everything patterns of
everything and it can be your assistant
so instead of having a person you have
an AI assistant you say okay I need to
go to India figure out the travel
schedule and make a press release can do
all those things so then it becomes more
generally intelligent and a lot of the
concern I have about that is that at a
certain point we lose control of the
environment to where we do things and
there we are in charge of what it does
for example in medical field if a doctor
has an AI then will the doctor just say
yes to the AI and decide on the
treatment or can we question the AI or
do do we have knowledge that is beyond
the black box so what would happen if a
doctor has all this information and the
machine says your patient is dying in 5
minutes unless you do this and this is
already becoming an issue right and it's
not just on those things but it's also
legal issues and and so on and so the
question I have will we just have to say
yes and we can't do anything we can't
question it anymore and what happens
when that happens in all languages for
example so now right now it's mostly
English and definitely not Turkish but
this is a question of time until these
agents work really well in in every
mainstream language so what do you think
is the likely scenario because on the
first part I say that basically using
smart software it's primarily a good
thing because it increases output and it
helps us to do better but intelligent
systems that can do things on their own
and can can really start reasoning being
more like humans I think that is
extremely dangerous and probably not
such a good idea we cannot say these
things in a very certain way right now
most of the people are concentrating on
the negative possible effects of AI are
exaggerating in short term the things
that will happen that might happen but
in in long term we are not exaggerating
in a reverse we are assuming that they
may not happen at all so I think we are
in that kind of period right now we are
a little bit exaggerating thinking that
everywhere and every country every
people will be able to use that very
quickly in a very proper way although we
know know that to run these systems are
extremely uh difficult indeed in terms
of energy hardware and software
infrastructure the internet connection
and everything there is so I think we
are underestimating this kind of
requirements to use Ai and other
technological advancement in the way
that we assume I think that the the
reality is right now we can use AI it's
very expensive to use and we have to pay
but if everybody used it if two billion
people say we using it like all the time
it would collapse and so in general we
need a lot more energy A lot more
Computing a lot more chips we need
Quantum Computing super Computing you
know we need all these things but here's
the thing I think that within five years
it becomes feasible to scale and we will
have new for of energy of course like
nuclear fusion and of course solar
energy hopefully I think maybe by 2040
we will have a scenario to where super
intelligence becomes possible yes I see
within 10 years most of these problems
will be sold in the meantime till going
there people will be suffering with
reshaping themselves and re replacing
themselves and there are many mental
problems s with us because we will be
changing all our paradigms in terms of
Social and working life uh everything
will be changed dramatically So within 5
to 10 years we have to reshape ourselves
if we will continue if we have to
continue to work we really have to think
what are we going to do to earn our
lives yes there are theories about
Universal basic income come
and there there are theories about
abundance and there are theories if the
productivity will increase that much
that means the cost will decrease okay
our salaries or our incomes will
decrease but at the same time the cost
will decrease so all these are true
might be true most probably we will see
those developments because we are
experienced enough to create scenarios
because we learned that from the
computation the internet Revolution and
so on so I prefer not to think uh more
than five years or 10 years but I I
suggest people to concentrate on
themselves to balance their mental
health at first and
to re reimagine their future their own
future their own capabilities their own
skills whatever it is and they have to
concentrate on themselves and they have
to reshape their life considering that
considering all these assumptions and
thoughts so I think beyond that is
really too much for ongoing people's
mindset and living conditions because
people are really so tired so fed up
with this so many information and we
were rushing after information data and
now we are fed up with information and
data we really would like to see and
decide what to do with all these things
how to be how can we use these data and
how it may help me to improve my life or
my business Etc we are really so
confused that's too much yeah I think I
I I I think this is one of the most
important things is that we need to
figure out how we get younger people to
believe in the future again and and
because a lot of young people are
desperate they look at climate change
and politics and Automation and
immigration and artificial intelligence
taking over the the jobs and it's a very
negative view I don't know about turkey
but in Europe there's 70% of European
young people said they're not going to
have kids because the world is bad it's
probably different in Turkey but there's
lot of negative views so I would like to
do something to set the record straight
for young people also so that the future
can be good and it has great potential
it's not that we can't do anything we
are doing lots of things but that we
have to have the right wisdom and the
right positions to implement the good
future so it's a funny thing when you
look at all the possibilities of
Technology we can probably solve pretty
much every practical problem healthc
care water food but we have to use
technology in the right way and we have
to make sure that everybody has access
and we have to make sure that it's not
just the developed countries but the the
developing countries and of course
turkey is right in the middle between
those two things it's like we need to
figure out how we can make it equally
accessible and that's a question of
policy and development and wisdom to
actually make it happen otherwise we end
up in the world that's very polarized so
we have the ones that can do it and the
other ones who can't do it and for
example we can be green economies in
Europe and in America by
2030 but we don't get India and China
and Africa and the Middle East to come
along as usth lists because we still are
going to explode and and this is a big
problem because in Europe we're on the
way Germany is 37% green
energy right but if we reach a 100% that
would be very good but on the other hand
it will make no difference to the global
agenda if the other countries like
Brazil India Indonesia if they keep
building coal plant because the global
atmosphere is still going to get worse
and this is one of those examples where
I think young people need to understand
what that means this shift and why
there's hope that we can collaborate
because a lot of young people feel
hopeless there's a lot of young women
between 25 and 35 who who feel like
there's nothing positive happening
because they don't see an objective and
I think we need to change that because
young people are the ones who are going
to define the future obviously and
especially the 25 to 40 year olds the
millennial my kids at that age they have
stock now they don't know whether it's
going to be good or bad and they it's we
have to liberate them to actually make
the future this is an important topic
because especially for turkey I believe
because there's so many young people
what how do we get them onto the agenda
of the good future we cannot talk to
young people anymore when we are talking
about future world is having a great
demographic shift and there is an aging
problem there is a longevity problem and
the retired people the retirement or the
systems who are related to age is dimin
diminishing indeed there is a great
anxiety not in only in young
generation's mind and life but also in
Elder Generations mind because they have
to live long by doing something and by
earning money in countries developed
countries most of the retired population
is okay they have some kind of security
for their lifetime but in countries like
us and the these are not very few the
Elder people are in panic what are they
going to do everything is changing they
do not know technology a lot they even
don't understand but they are still
living and they are still in a position
to earn money and what are they doing
these is Elder people and young people
is naturally having many problems
because the world is not able to create
Capital anymore the capitalism is not
creating capital for young people
anymore so that's why they are objecting
and trying to change all Financial
system towards
cryptocurrencies or crypto assets and
blockchain and meta Wars and so on there
is a huge homework for Humanity so we
have to solve really big problems in in
this decade we have to find some ways
either Elder even children young people
and Elder people who are living long and
I'm sure that you heard about Stanford
opened up a new department or new
section about 100 years old people and
this demographic shift issues so there
is a kind of anxiety in the world the
climate anxiety the income anxiety the
technology anxiety I call this period of
time anxiety period and anxiety time
yeah anxiety time we that's a good one
yeah yeah because whatever we when we
talk about anything even the climate
even the finance even the social even
the politics and so on we see there are
red lights alarms on that uh topic so uh
the young people are really in Desperate
psychology all over the world I think we
are traveling around and we have uh
followers uh from every part of the
world and uh they are right they are
right to feel that because we are not
able to Sol their problems because we
other people are talking about the
climate crisis and uh the global warming
and the financial problems ethic
problems and so on but we are not solve
anything so they are losing their faith
they don't believe us they don't feel
respect towards us so I think the major
problem is about us the Elder generation
we have to solve first our problems and
we have to educate our stuff
関連動画をさらに表示
Life 3.0 book summary in hindi | when ai will become a threat? @life3.0 @books @mtegmark
Ep. 01: The Age of AI I Docuseries: What Does the Future Hold ? - Season 2
GIS – Creating a Sustainable Future
De Afspraak (18-09-2017) met Jonathan Berte
S2E3 Non lavoreremo più!
Mustafa Suleyman & Yuval Noah Harari -FULL DEBATE- What does the AI revolution mean for our future?
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)