Late Kick Live Ep 545: Chaos Is Coming | GT Stuns FSU | New JP Poll | Herbie Haters | NCAA vs Mich

Summary

In this episode, the host discusses the unpredictability of college football, highlighting Florida State's surprising loss to Georgia Tech and its implications on team rankings. He introduces the JP Poll, a power rating model for teams, and shares early season bets on the Ramen Noodle Express. Additionally, he comments on Michigan's NCAA allegations and the impact of the upcoming Connor Stallions documentary, emphasizing the sport's ever-changing dynamics.

Takeaways

• 🏈 The speaker emphasizes the unpredictability of college football, using Florida State's loss to Georgia Tech as an example of unexpected outcomes.
• 📊 Discusses the release of an updated JP poll, a power rating system for college football teams, which has undergone changes due to recent games and insights from fall camps.
• 📈 Notes that despite Florida State's loss, the team's power rating still favors them against Georgia Tech if they were to play again, indicating the complexity of the rating system.
• 🤔 Raises questions about the ACC's playoff prospects, given Florida State's loss and potential implications for other top teams like Miami and Clemson.
• 🔑 Highlights the importance of the line of scrimmage play and running game, pointing out that Georgia Tech's dominance in these areas was a key factor in their win.
• 🎥 Mentions a collaboration with an unnamed individual, hinting at a potential announcement related to game commentary or media coverage.
• 🚨 Warns against drawing conclusions too quickly, echoing the sentiment that 'the wise man makes observations, the foolish man draws conclusions'.
• 📝 Discusses the potential impact of the new expanded playoff system on the college football landscape, including the possibility of a Group of Five team with a lower ranking making it into the playoffs.
• 🎓 Reflects on the role of academics and recruiting in the success of college football programs, particularly focusing on Georgia Tech's potential.
• 📱 Encourages viewers to follow on social media for updates and to download the FanDuel app for potential benefits, showcasing a partnership between the show and the betting platform.
• 🔄 Ends with a reminder of the fluid nature of the JP poll, indicating that it will change throughout the season as games are played and new information becomes available.

Q & A

What is the main message the speaker wants the audience to take away regarding college football?

The speaker emphasizes the unpredictability and excitement of college football, urging fans to come back with an open heart and mind, and to remember that early observations in the season should not be hastily turned into conclusions.

What was the outcome of the Florida State vs. Georgia Tech game mentioned in the script?

Georgia Tech won the game against Florida State with a score of 24 to 21, which was unexpected as Florida State was the double-digit favorite.

What is the 'Ramen Noodle Express' presented by FanDuel?

The 'Ramen Noodle Express' is a segment of the show where the speaker provides betting picks for upcoming college football games, presented in partnership with FanDuel.

What is the significance of the JP Poll mentioned by the speaker?

The JP Poll is a power rating system used by the speaker to evaluate college football teams, which is updated throughout the season based on team performances and other factors.

What does the speaker suggest about the Florida State team's performance and expectations?

The speaker suggests that Florida State's performance was disappointing given the expectations set by various media reports and insiders, indicating a potential disconnect between the team's self-assessment and its actual performance.

What is the speaker's view on the importance of the line of scrimmage play in football?

The speaker believes that the line of scrimmage play is crucial in determining the outcome of a football game, as it can significantly impact both the running game and the defense.

What is the 'padlock stat' referred to in the script?

The 'padlock stat' is a specific game statistic highlighted by the speaker that, if known before the game, could give a strong indication of how the game would turn out.

What does the speaker think about the role of coaching staff in a team's performance?

The speaker implies that the coaching staff may not have a firm grasp on the team's capabilities if they misjudge their strengths, as seemed to be the case with Florida State's defensive line and running game.

What is the significance of the speaker's mention of 'wishcasting' in the context of college football?

The speaker uses 'wishcasting' to describe a situation where media or insiders start making optimistic predictions without solid information, potentially painting an unrealistic picture of a team's capabilities.

What is the speaker's opinion on the potential impact of the new expanded playoff and the G5 auto bid?

The speaker speculates that the new expanded playoff and G5 auto bid could lead to unexpected outcomes, such as a team ranked in the 20s making it to the college football playoff, which would be a significant shift from previous years.

Outlines

00:00

🏈 College Football Season Return and Week Zero Warning

The speaker welcomes back the audience to the college football season, highlighting the return of fans and the importance of approaching the season with an open heart and mind. A reference is made to a past mentor, MIMO, who emphasized the difference between observation and hasty conclusions. The setting is a vibrant downtown Nashville on August 25th, 2024, with a game between Florida State and Georgia Tech. The speaker alludes to a sense of impending chaos in the season and discusses the release of an updated JP poll, which is unusual before the first game has been played, reflecting the unexpected performance of Florida State.

05:00

📊 Analyzing Georgia Tech's Surprising Victory Over Florida State

This paragraph delves into the game's statistics, emphasizing Georgia Tech's significant rushing advantage and the disparity in the second half. The speaker discusses the pre-game confidence in Florida State's running game and defensive front, questioning whether the media and insiders were misled or if there was a disconnect within the Florida State program itself. The unexpected outcome is considered an alarm for the program, and the speaker suggests that the reality of the team's capabilities may have been overestimated.

10:01

🤔 Contemplating the Future of Florida State's Football Program

The speaker ponders the implications of Florida State's loss and what it means for their season. They discuss the potential for both overrated favorites and underrated underdogs in college football, using the game's outcome as an example. The speaker also praises Georgia Tech's coach Brent Key and speculates on whether the program could become a dominant force in college football, given its location and potential for recruiting.

15:03

🔄 Post-Game Reflections and the Impact on the ACC Standings

The speaker reflects on the post-game reactions, including fans feeling misled by the media and insiders' optimistic predictions about Florida State. They discuss the immediate effects of the game on the ACC standings, with Clemson and Miami now favored to win the conference. The speaker also mentions their upcoming collaboration with an unnamed individual, hinting at a potentially groundbreaking development.

20:04

🎯 The Importance of Line of Scrimmage Play and Its Implications

The focus shifts to the critical aspect of line of scrimmage play, which was a standout feature in the Georgia Tech and Florida State game. The speaker uses 'padlock stats' to illustrate the dominance of Georgia Tech in this area, suggesting that Florida State's performance was alarming and not in line with pre-season expectations. The discussion highlights the need for a collective effort from Florida State to improve and the importance of not resting on past laurels.

25:05

🤝 Sponsor Highlights and Engagement with the Audience

The speaker acknowledges their sponsors, particularly Quick Trip, for their support and the opportunity to give away free gas to the audience. They encourage the audience to download Quick Trip's app for potential savings and share their positive experiences working with the sponsor. The speaker also teases upcoming game analyses and discussions about potential chaos in the college football season.

30:06

🏟️ The Unpredictability of College Football and Its Early Upsets

The speaker discusses the unpredictable nature of college football, using the Florida State loss as a reminder that anything can happen, especially early in the season. They reflect on the impact of upsets on the perception of team strength and the potential for further chaos in the season, hinting at various scenarios that could disrupt the expected outcomes.

35:07

🛑 The Potential for Chaos in the College Football Season

The speaker speculates on various scenarios that could lead to chaos in the college football season, such as unexpected performances by quarterbacks, the potential for a non-traditional team to dominate, or the impact of an expanded playoff system. They consider the implications of these scenarios for the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 conferences.

40:08

🎓 The Impact of the NCAA's Notice of Allegations on Michigan

The speaker discusses the NCAA's notice of allegations against Michigan, timed to coincide with the release of a Netflix documentary about the program. They consider the potential outcomes, from financial settlements to more severe penalties, and the impact on Michigan's reputation and performance. The speaker also addresses the audience's reactions to the situation.

45:08

🔄 The NCAA's Strategic Timing and Its Effects on Michigan's Reputation

The speaker contemplates the NCAA's strategic timing in releasing the notice of allegations, suggesting that it may be an attempt to procedurally punish Michigan without causing lasting damage to the program. They discuss the potential for the NCAA to leak information or use the documentary's release to apply pressure, while also considering the network's influence in protecting the asset that is Michigan football.

50:09

📊 Power Ratings and the Fluidity of College Football Rankings

The speaker introduces the JP poll, a power rating system that reflects the fluctuating nature of college football teams' strengths. They explain the system's basis in data rather than emotion and discuss the preseason numbers, emphasizing the potential for significant changes as the season progresses.

55:10

🤔 The Role of Media and Public Perception in College Football

The speaker reflects on the role of media and public perception in shaping opinions about college football teams. They share personal experiences of being accused of bias and consider whether such accusations are valid. The speaker also addresses the audience's reactions to their commentary and the importance of understanding the complexities of the sport.

00:12

🎙️ Changes to 'Lake Kick Live' and Future Announcements

The speaker announces changes to the show's name and structure, moving away from 'Lake Kick Live' to 'Josh Pat's College Football Show.' They discuss new agreements with CBS and the acquisition of full ownership of their channel and podcast feed. The speaker also teases further announcements for the upcoming week.

05:12

📅 Final Thoughts and Sign-off

The speaker concludes the session with thanks to the audience, the show's team, and a sign-off, indicating that the show will continue with its regular schedule and format.

Keywords

💡College football

College football refers to the sport of American football played by teams of student-athletes fielded by American universities, colleges, and military academies. In the video, the theme revolves around the return of the college football season, the excitement it brings, and the analysis of various teams and games, indicating the importance of the sport within the context of the show.

💡Off season

The off season in sports is the period during which the sport's main events or competitions are not held. In the script, the off season is mentioned to acknowledge the time when college football was not being played, and the host welcomes the audience back to the sport, emphasizing the cyclical nature of the sport's popularity.

💡JP poll

The JP poll seems to be a specific ranking system or poll mentioned in the script, possibly created by the host or a character in the video. It is used to rank college football teams based on their performance and is updated to reflect changes, such as Florida State's drop after a game outcome.

💡Power ratings

Power ratings in sports analytics are numerical values assigned to teams to quantify their strength or performance level. The script discusses power ratings as a tool to measure teams' capabilities, where a drop in Florida State's power rating signifies their underperformance in a recent game.

💡Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is a university in Atlanta, Georgia, and its football team is referenced multiple times in the script. The team's victory over Florida State is a significant event in the video, and the discussion around it showcases the unpredictability and excitement of college football.

💡Florida State

Florida State refers to Florida State University, whose football team is a central topic in the script due to their unexpected loss to Georgia Tech. The team's performance and the implications of their defeat for their season and rankings are extensively analyzed.

💡ACC

The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) is a collegiate athletic conference in the United States. In the script, the ACC is discussed in terms of its member teams' odds to win the conference, the impact of Florida State's loss, and the overall competitiveness within the conference.

💡Ramen Noodle Express

The Ramen Noodle Express appears to be a segment of the show where the host gives betting picks or predictions for upcoming games. It is presented in the context of making sports betting recommendations based on the analysis of the teams and games.

💡FanDuel

FanDuel is a company operating in the sports betting industry, mentioned in the script as the presenter of the Ramen Noodle Express segment. It signifies the integration of sports betting culture within the analysis and discussion of college football games.

💡NCAA

The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) is a non-profit organization that regulates student-athlete participation in college sports. The script discusses the NCAA's notice of allegations to the University of Michigan, indicating the ongoing issue of rules compliance and the impact on the sport's integrity.

💡Herb Street

Herb Street is likely a figure associated with college football, possibly a commentator or analyst. In the script, his reception by fans, including booing during GameDay, is discussed, highlighting the passionate and sometimes contentious relationship between media figures and fans.

Highlights

Welcome back to college football with a cautionary note to approach the season with an open heart and mind.

Introduction of the 'Ramen Noodle Express', a segment for games to bet on throughout the season.

Analysis of Florida State's performance and its implications on the team's ranking and expectations.

Discussion on the importance of not hastily drawing conclusions from week zero performances.

Release of an updated JP poll reflecting changes in team power ratings before the season even begins.

The impact of media hype and its potential misrepresentation of a team's capabilities, as seen with Florida State.

Georgia Tech's surprising victory over Florida State and what it says about the team's strength and potential.

The significance of line of scrimmage play and its role in Georgia Tech's win.

The potential for a 12-team playoff and the implications of an auto bid for the G5 conference.

Scenarios that could cause chaos in the college football landscape, including unexpected team performances.

The possibility of the Big 12 not living up to its reputation for chaos and what that could mean for the playoff picture.

Concerns about load management and resting starters late in the season due to auto bids in the playoff structure.

The announcement of a new collaboration with an undisclosed partner, hinting at a groundbreaking development.

The presentation of the first two picks on the Ramen Noodle Express for week one of college football.

A reflection on the nature of fan passion and its downsides, such as booing during broadcasts.

The change in the show's name to 'Josh P's College Football Show' and the announcement of new ownership and direction.

Transcripts

I want you all to be careful I want you

to have fun welcome back I know a lot of

you were back you um frankly you

selfishly recognize the off season but

that's okay we've been here the whole

time but it's okay you can come back now

a lot of folks are coming back to the

college football table but I want you to

come back with an open heart and an open

mind and I give you the same warning

that mimo used to give me all the time

mimo when speaking about week zero

actually week zero didn't exist in

meal's time meal when speaking about

week one used to always say and I'm

going to say again the wise man makes

observations the foolish man draws

conclusions we are jam-packed as

jam-packed as we could ever be we are

high top a picturesque downtown

Nashville Tennessee Sunday night August

25th the year of ourl 2024 Florida State

wow Georgia Tech

wow same word very different meaning

there uh do you think that this season

is giving off some pretty big chaos

Vibes we're not even into week one yet

but already I'm getting the sense we

kind of found out some stuff about

Florida State the only difference

between Florida State and several of our

other top 10 top 20 top 25ish teams as

we're about to find out about them

there's some posers out there amongst us

and who knows who they are well

hopefully we'll try and pick through it

tonight I got an updated JP poll

unprecedented I am releasing a second

edition of the JP poll before 98% of you

have even played a game but I thought it

was necessary because one of our top 10

teams was not and that's the way it goes

power ratings are not rankings but

sometimes you can fall pretty quickly

down the power ratings if you um well if

you do what Florida state did yesterday

so I've got that I've got two not one

two additions to week one's Ramen Noodle

Express tonight welcome back to the

ramen noodle Express presented by

FanDuel now they're watching us in

Oxford Mississippi they're watching us

in Silsby Texas Spring Hill Florida

Seattle Washington I would recommend you

guys just Mosey on over to the socials

and make sure you're following me at

Lake kick Josh you know some news broke

yesterday some Rumblings turned into

reports that um I'll be collaborating

with someone tomorrow I believe we're

going to record it later tonight and

look I don't want to drop any names I

mean you'll probably hear him with Gus

Johnson this weekend calling whichever

game fox has I don't want to drop any

names but I think it I think it could be

pretty groundbreaking and so that'll be

fun you find these things out if you're

following on Instagram or Twitter at

Lake kick Josh okay let's dive into the

show um I want to be responsible this is

our first game breakdown of the year so

I want to be very responsible the way we

do it around here is a little different

so Georgia Tech what does this say Colin

24 Florida State 21 so the double digit

favorite seols go down in Ireland it

counts even if it's in another country

you got to have your head on a swivel

this time of year uh there are beliefs

and then there are just these working

theories and I've always been of the

opinion that even though we go through

all of spring and we go through all of

Summer and you go through media days and

you go through fall Camp the best you

can hope to have on these teams are

really these loose sets of working

theories for instance there was a strong

working Theory out there in the college

football ether that am I reading this

piece of paper right Florida state had

the best defensive line in the country

well that was one way to look at it the

other way to look at it is the view that

Georgia Tech had yesterday and they said

no I H not so fast this was a Greg

Maddox special of a game for those of

you who weren't around Greg Maddox used

to routinely get him out of there in

under two hours and then make a 930 uh

dinner time if they were on the road or

whatever Greg Maddox wasted no time Greg

Maddox didn't even seek the strikeout

Greg Maddox wanted you putting the ball

in play the first two or three pitches

of theat CA that just gets the game over

quicker that gets him back to the Dugout

quicker listen to this our first paper

pop stat of the Year 14 total drives in

this game seven drives were four plus

minutes only two drives were less than

two minutes now I'm about to hit you

with the first padlock stat of the Year

FSU in the final 21 minutes and 19

seconds of this

game one drive final 21 minutes 619 to

go in the third quarter from that point

on FSU touch the ball one time the rest

of the game 67 runs 43 passes in this

game so the most glaring aspect of this

to me was line of scrimmage play I think

most of you who watch this game you

think the same thing you oh man Georgia

Tech really put him on skates yeah yeah

that's part of what stood out but that

wasn't the alarming part that was just a

football game we'll see that happen

every week this year to varying degrees

uh you want a padlock stat number two

and then I'll tell you what alarmed me

padlock stat number two Georgia Tech

imagine seeing this stat for those of

you who are new around here the padlock

stat is if I were to tell you this stat

the day before the game you'd pretty

well know how the game was going to turn

out Georgia Tech 190 to 98 rushing

Advantage Georgia Tech 89 to 20 89 to 20

they outrushed Florida state in the

second half

um that wasn't supposed to happen now

here's the alarming part those are just

stats that's just a football game the

alarming part is the closer you got to

this Florida State program over the past

last month the more confident folks

sounded about their running game and the

more confident folks sounded about their

impenetrable defensive front maybe my

word not theirs but we heard Pete thill

on game day yesterday you think P Pete

thill didn't make that up Pete thill was

regurgitating Intel that was given to

him probably from inside the program

folks around the FSU program folks on

the FSU beat folks working for different

team websites they were getting drug

over the hlls last night their members

in some cases asking for refunds why

because they felt misled because a lot

of folks who report on this team misled

me you told me that we were going to be

good and then I saw us and we weren't

and so this could be one of two things I

have my suspicions as to which one it is

sometimes a collective media beat around

a team will just get caught wishcasting

wishcasting is absent any real

information you just start making it up

as you go and you end up painting a

picture of a team that ends up further

and further away from what the reality

of that team is now the reason I don't

think that's what this was was because

most time if coaches if they're any

anywhere near smart enough to Reign it

in if they start to sense that the hype

bubble around their program is getting

too big they'll go pop it themselves

they'll read an article they'll look at

a gallery on a message board they'll go

look at a a segment we do whatever the

case may be and they'll reach out and

say Hey you might want to pump the break

now pump it just a little bit you're

going to make me look terrible because

you're going to build us up to be

something we aren't and then week one's

going to come and we're going to

disappoint everyone and folks are going

to be mad at me because of the hype you

built so sure the folks around Florida

State and the media beat there they

could have been wishcasting Pete thill

could have been wishcasting he could

have just decided on the flight over to

Dublin you know I'm going to go on

national TV and I'm going to say I think

this team's got the best defensive line

in the country yeah that's one Theory

the other Theory the one I happen to

prescribe crib

to is they were just regurgitating Intel

that people inside the program gave them

now that is a little more alarming

because that means folks inside Florida

State thought they had the best

defensive line in the country folks

inside Florida state folks who you know

do football for a living those folks

thought that they were going to dominate

UPF front those folks thought that line

of scrimmage and Run game were going to

be their bread and butter here and if

DJ's not great if DJ can't stretch the

field vertically that's okay we'll just

Rock fight this thing early and then

we'll we'll give our offense time to

round into forum and that is a little

more alarming because that paints a

picture of a coaching staff that may not

have a firm grasp on what the football

team was I don't know which the case is

I just know collectively a lot of folks

got Hoodwinked on this and um I'm not as

close to the program obviously as like a

lot of other people were talking about

but even I watched it and I said whoo

this does not at all match up with what

I heard and what I thought I should

expect here so the other side to that is

maybe maybe it's not quite as bad as it

seems because I was texting back and

forth with uh Danny canel yesterday he's

still alive um I'm not going to go as

far as to say he's okay but I can

confirm he's still with us this is not a

Daniel canel Memorial show just yet but

I was texting back and forth with him

and look honestly it's my job to nurse

him back to health emotionally in times

like these and so I did say Daniel now

one of the big mistakes that people make

I I didn't necessarily mean this but one

of the big mistakes people make is

sometimes when there's an upset early in

the year everyone talks about how the

favorite was overrated but hardly anyone

takes time to acknowledge maybe the

underdog was underrated maybe Georgia

Tech's just a whole lot better I think

there's a healthy dose of both in play

right now but I will say um solid solid

golf clap for Brent ke and Georgia Tech

we've always asked the show we've always

the question on this show who's who's

going to figure out how to harness

Atlanta Texas A&M is the biggest

sleeping giant program in the sport I've

always thought Arizona State's up there

and there are a couple of other North

Carolina like if North Carolina ever got

right I think they could be a really

really solid program Georgia Tech's

pretty high on that list they always

have been for me I grew up in Georgia

grew up hours south of Atlanta always

had a I thought a pretty good read on

the program I thought uh Jeff for

example I thought there was a half

decent chance he'd come in there and

he'd do that a lot of stuff happened

that I didn't necessarily expect and it

didn't end up being Jeff Collins so now

um Brent key takes over and what if I

told you well first off we have a

Post-It pop here Boom the first Post-it

pop of the Year Georgia Techs all of a

sudden 5 and0 versus ranked ACC teams

under Brent key hello that stat kind of

snuck up on a lot of you I'm not done uh

they've completely remade the program

most of you found that that out for the

first time yesterday they had listen to

this now they had five scoring drives

all of last year that were 10 plays and

six plus minutes or longer all of 2023

they had five scoring drives that were

10 plays six minutes or longer they had

three of them yesterday three of them in

one afternoon so who can harness Atlanta

well maybe it's maybe it was Brink key

after all harnessing Atlanta just simply

means do you understand how inexcusable

it is that we for a long time have had a

major power four power five program at

the intersection of the SEC and the ACC

which is Atlanta Georgia right there in

the heart of the hottest geographical

recruiting bed in the South um and it's

been irrelevant Georgia Tech hasn't even

been the biggest name in their own City

in college football for a long time I

always looked at it and I said why and

all people could ever tell me is well

academics and I I used to always tell

them um you're you're telling me that's

the only place I mean this is right

smack dab in the middle of David Shaw

dominating at Stanford by the way you're

telling me that's the only place it's a

little tough to get into you're telling

me that you can't find 20 to 25 kids any

given year that are qualified to get

into Georgia Tech that can also do a few

things on the football field I always

thought that was stupid it is it has

been stupid for a long time so George

Tech man let's see what they do this

year I'm going to show you where they

are in the JP poll a little bit later

where does Florida State go from here is

a question that I'm not asking tonight

only because I've seen it asked

everywhere else today so it's semantics

I'm not I'm not um not taking a shot at

anyone but I want to ask you guys now

who are big expansionists out there do

you really believe in this 12 team

playoff or not CU some of the same folks

out there who sold me on one game not

being the end of the world for a team

because you can afford to lose are

painting it as the end of the world

because Florida State lost Florida State

may lose four games this year for all I

know or they may never lose again for

all I know but what's next for Florida

State well you get back to work and you

go play Boston College as best I can

tell that's what's next for Florida

State it's not like they lost a boxing

match and their next one's a year and a

half from now it's it's not like they

had their soul sucked out of them well

they better not have but everybody's

piling on DJ ouang for being basically

the quarterback he's been his entire

career that was the least surprising

thing to me yesterday that that DJ OU

angal didn't take over the game he's not

a guy who takes over games uh he is a

guy who probably needs help from his

Supporting Cast and didn't get enough of

it and look if I didn't know any better

and I watched that game yesterday it's

almost like watching that Bama team back

in 2021 where Bryce young had to go

herob ball on every play because it

seems like after the ball gets snapped

everyone just Waits on him to do

something well that this is not the cat

to do that so it's going to have to be a

collective effort there at Florida State

but

man three tackles for loss and zero

sacks for that defensive front meanwhile

Georgia Tech racks up seven tackles for

loss they're that much better than you

are you serious you got to have some

pride in that defensive line room it it

takes more it takes more than just going

into spring and then everyone writing

positive articles about you and then you

just kind of surf it's like ride a wave

into the season the rents due every day

you don't get to do some things and then

rest on those Laurels you guys haven't

done anything by the way you're not last

year's team you haven't done anything so

you got a spear on the side of your

helmet cuz they thought you were good

enough to wear

it that's not how football works like

that's not how being a big-time team at

Florida State works so now the ACC

picture just to give you some updated

odds courtesy of our friends at FanDuel

Clemson is now favored to win this

conference Miami is right on their heels

second Florida State and NC State are

tied for having the third best odds and

Florida State just lost conference game

and Louisville and Virginia Tech are

what one two 3 4 fifth and sixth

respectively uh Rett Lashley and the

boys barely escaped Nevada last night

with a win they're at plus 1200 so now

all a sudden one two three four five six

we got two four we got seven teams plus

12200 are better odds we got six teams

in these singled digigit odds which just

means the ACC all of a sudden looks like

a Richard man's version of the Big 12

and in a sense that you got a bunch of

teams that perception could make a move

I also thought Brad Crawford had a

really good point today and he pointed

out that Florida State's got a

conference loss now so down the road

they don't play Virginia Tech they don't

play NC State so both of those teams

could lose a game as long as they beat

Georgia Tech and both of them play

Georgia Tech they'd have a tiebreaker

over Florida State just to give you an

idea of the eightball that Florida State

kind of put themselves behind now

Florida State wins every one of their

remaining games they'll go to the AC

championship game can they win those

games what are they going to look like

against Boston College we shall see we

are going to be in Gainesville Florida

this I'll get down there Friday I think

wo it's red in here cane Vibes Colin wow

I should we should get the Flames so I'm

going to be in Gainesville and I'm going

to be there courtesy of quick trip

because the whole new Saturday tour is

powered by quick trip and I know a lot

of you are watching right now like we

got five or 6 thousand folks watching

live a lot of you are new we do this

every week of every college football

season now Quick Trip has hopped on

board as our presenting sponsor for this

but I go

to most of the time the biggest game in

the country every time the game I choose

to go to every week and so we try and

get to as many of them as we can we're

going to be down there Friday uh Friday

night lines will emanate from

Gainesville in some hotel room somewhere

in Florida this Friday night more on

that later but we're looking forward to

this we have given away dozens and

dozens and dozens of gallons multiple

tanks Tai I guess the plural of Tanks of

free gas this week alone you know how

fun that is when you partner with a

major gas station Corporation and they

just say just go give away a bunch of

gas what are the rules there are no

rules just give away the gas really well

I've had fun with that and a lot of you

guys have too now my advice download

their app download their app because

it's going to help you even if I don't

give you free gas it's going to lower

the cost of your gas anyway there's a QR

code on the screen right now but you can

just go download their app on your own

if you're not watching if you're

listening on podcast uh quick Trip's

been awesome to work with it's almost

like one of our staffers left us went to

quick trip and then immediately

partnered with us that's the kind of

synergy we've had with them that's been

fun and the season hasn't really even

started yet so we're looking really

forward to getting on the road with them

this fall meanwhile speaking of this

fall yesterday fairly chaotic I mean I

think a lot of you were at least

surprised if not outright shocked by

what you saw so Colin here's a good

endpoint for you Florida state fall into

Georgia Tech double- digigit favorite

not the biggest upset we've ever seen

But since it was the first thing you saw

this year I think it grabbed a lot of

You by the shoulders and just violently

shook you and you reminded you that this

is college football doesn't really

matter what your preview magazine says

and by the way I've got I've got pick

six previews right here in front of me

thank you Brett doesn't matter even what

that says uh it it matters that anything

could happen in this sport especially

early on so I got the thinking okay

Florida State we've already seen them

surely there'll be more upsets in week

one surely there'll be a whole lot more

chaos how chaotic could this season be

see a lot of you start re me included

not just a lot of you a lot of us watch

that Florida State upset and it's not

just Florida state gets beat it's

Florida State got beat is that the last

time they're going to lose this year

Florida State got beat wow who's the

favorite in the ACC now Florida State

got beat by Georgia Tech how good could

Georgia Tech be so there's this big

ripple effect off of everything that

happens in this sport some more chaotic

than other and I'm asking myself what

are the real chaos pivot Points this

year what are the things that if they

happened it would just blow the entire

sport up and we'd be on the fast track

to 2007

2.0 if you don't know look it up kids so

I got to thinking and I've got some

scenarios here but I'd love to hear from

you guys as well uh there is this chance

since we have the new expanded playoff

and there's an auto bid for the G5 you

know everyone's everyone's record and

everyone when they project it me

including I put Memphis in there I had

Memphis going like 11-1 or something

like that and I thought they'd get in

over an undefeated Liberty but hey what

if it doesn't happen like that what if

the highest ranked G5 conference champ

is ranked in the 20s but they get a spot

just because some rule says they get a

spot now that sounds crazy it's not

crazy at all uh last year Liberty at the

end of the year was the highest ranked

G5 conference champ they were 23rd so if

if nothing else besides last year gets

copied and pasted here we're going to

have a team ranked in the 20s put in the

college football playoff just because

someone said they deserve a shot to Lane

the year before number 16 they're in so

yeah there could be a situation where

someone's ranked eighth and they get in

and it makes perfect sense there could

also be a situation where someone's

ranked 24th and they get in and it's at

that point you guys look around and

realize oh that's what that means that's

what the G5 Auto bid means so that's the

that's the first thing at the end of the

year that happen but I'm thinking like

what if the ACC loses more week one

games so Florida State lost to Georgia

Tech but then we get into week one this

coming week we'll predict these games

Tuesday night Miami goes to Florida it's

a really big game for the ACC uh Clemson

plays Georgia what if the ACC goes 0

and2 there what if by the time the dust

settles on week one Florida State Miami

and Clemson all have losses

now that doesn't derail your conference

Championship hopes in fact these two

Clemson and Miami don't even play

conference games in week one but what

we'd be talking about already before

week two even gets here we'd be talking

about how the ACC is only going to be

able to get one team in the playoff and

it's just I I rub my temples already

thinking about how we're talking about

the playoff and who how many conference

Spots You're going to have um couldn't

be me but it may be so that could happen

but also hey hey in the meantime the

conference race would be wide open

you're looking at the odds to win this

thing again this year

Louisville Virginia Tech NC State SMU

would be even more in the thick of it

and that's before we know what Georgia

Tech does Syracuse floating around out

there with one of the most workable

schedules this year that right there if

we have Miami and or but especially if

we have Miami and Clemson fall in week

one and then Tennessee plays NC State

the next week uh that could be really

really bad really really quickly or it

could be a huge huge like momentum shift

for the ACC if they win them quarterback

play in the Big 10 I'll tell you what

would cause a true chaos situation what

if the quarterbacks just aren't good in

the Big 10 this year I'm talking about

all of them I'm talking about what if

Will Howard is average at best at Ohio

State and we're all watching them play

and it's one of the most talented teams

we've ever seen except it's very obvious

the relative weak link is quarterback

and we're all waiting for the

inevitability that they need to win a

shootout in the playoffs and it's not

there what if we have that what if Kade

mamera is what most folks expect him to

be and nothing more at Iowa what if Alex

orgy is average and nothing more at

Michigan Dylan Gabriel at Oregon Dylan

Gabriel I have a hard time picturing him

not having a good year but what if Dylan

Gabriel's the kind of guy where you're

watching him and Ohio State goes up

there in week five or week six and that

secondary just shuts him down and you

figure well this is a guy who's going to

rack up a lot of stats but is he really

going to be there at the end of the day

what if all that happens well a couple

of things number one it would um it

would probably put a a pretty low

ceiling on the big 10's odds comp post

season but number two I didn't mention

USC for a reason Lincoln Riley is going

to get good quarterback play always has

always will so there is no world where

to me Miller Moss is bad Miller Moss is

well below expectations so they may not

be able to stop molasses in December

like that's what remains to be seen

about USC but if the rest of the

conference is down at the quarterback

position and Lincoln Riley's USC is not

then that's how USC is in the Big 10

Championship picture that's how USC

could all of a sudden boom I mean like

Tyler van djk is at Wisconsin what if

will or what if Drew all does not take

any kind of Next Step whatsoever at Penn

State all of this is is for seeable like

that could actually happen and the other

one is Nebraska Nebraska what if what if

Matt rule in the midst of a lot of

mediocrity pulls a really good freshman

year out of Dylan riola that is chaotic

in the Big 10 what if we go to the

SEC and we look at all these playoff

odds and we look at the rankings and the

JP poll included which is not a ranking

and they're all these SEC teams up there

what if none of these SEC teams are

Elite that would be chaotic what if

Georgia's really not all that much

compared to Georgia teams in the past

upfront what what if they get bitten by

how inexperienced they are in their

secondary what if that happens what if

for example LSU really is not improved

defensively uh what if Jaylen milro does

not mesh with that kayin debor offense

what if injuries test Alabama's depth

early and it's just not there at

especially in the secondary on

defense a lot of a lot of wh ifs there

that could actually happen you know

Texas at running back what if that

really is a terminal flaw a flaw in the

overall balance and functionality of

their

offense well then you have a recipe for

a couple of things happening you have

the next tier of teams that could easily

jump up in the mix you know like I

didn't mentioned Tennessee there well if

some of those teams are down and

Tennessee just is what you expect them

to be you know they pop against NC State

early they all of a sudden inject

themselves in the conversation Miami

against Florida what if Florida ends up

winning that thing no one's going to

expect anything from Florida because of

the schedule but Florida could at least

be a nightmare for other teams to play

what if Texas A&M beats Notre Dame by 13

in week one and all of a sudden

everyone's saying Mike Elco a contender

well that could happen the other thing

is we're going to know pretty quickly

you know you you were watching Florida

State

yesterday and it's a closer game than

you expect and maybe you're sitting

there live betting the game and you

still you expect Florida State to pull

away but it's just not happening and

you're sitting there you're second

guessing everything you thought you knew

about about this team that early in the

year well what if you're watching Bama

versus Wisconsin in like week three and

you're already questioning Alabama what

if the week before Texas is at Michigan

and Texas has got 12 points on the board

late in the third quarter and they're

just getting stoned what if Clemson is

in a dog fight with Georgia in the

fourth quarter and that one's really

ugly and it's like 23

all then all of the sudden everyone is

looking and saying well maybe there's

not a big gap between any one of these

teams in the rest of that field and

that's how Missouri's shark fin just

gets bigger and bigger offshore that's

how old misss shark fin just gets bigger

and bigger offshore Old Miss shark fin

actually comes on land

sometimes that would be chaotic in the

SEC and then uh the the conference that

is known for chaos the actual chaos path

in the Big 12 would be what if there

isn't a whole bunch of it what if

instead of of the usual eight or nine

Team Deep League of teams capable of

winning it you're looking at the FanDuel

Lodge right now we got to go all the way

down to Texas Tech 2 four 6 eight we got

nine teams with plus 1,800 odds are

better to win the thing well what if

Kansas State separates themselves Utah

separates themselves and let's just pick

one more TCU there's a world TCU is

extremely underrated by the way I had

talked about him all summer and I'm mad

about it because we got him as a top 30

team in in the JP poll and I haven't

spoken a word about him so there's a

world where Kansas State Utah and TCU

could all go 11-1 or 12-0 cuz they don't

all play each other so what if that were

to happen because that's not what anyone

expects what we expect is a jumbled mess

and an inferior conference and you get

one team which is your conference champ

in the playoff but what if that's not

the case what if all of a sudden we look

and we say no there's there's three

teams actually and they keep winning

every week you remember a couple of

years ago for example you never would

have thought a team could afford to lose

the Big 12 championship game and still

make it in the playoff but they did TCU

did TCU didn't win the conference uh

Kansas state did and then TCU still had

a good enough resume where they get in

so um what if this year you get down the

line and you're thinking all of a sudden

wow the Big 12 could have an at large

bid here maybe the Big 12 gets a couple

of teams in because instead of a

convoluted MCH yes there was some

separation which may not be great for

entertainment sake but it's great for

the conference's viability of getting

more than one team in is the reputation

already baked in a lot of folks have

already convinced themselves the Big 12

is getting one team in well does the

committee feel that

way could there be chaos elsewhere that

makes it even more obvious that we got

some pretty clean resumes here in the

Big 12 um and then there's this other

nightmare scenario for everyone this

isn't even chaos this is a nightmare to

me because I'm a regular season guy guy

over the

playoff there is it's got to be like a a

specific situation but there are some

situations out there where some really

uncomfortable conversations about load

management happens late in the year and

resting starters happens late in the

year now I will admit to you number one

I hate this conversation number two I

think it's unlikely to happen number

three it's not impossible let me paint

you a couple of

scenarios

so let's say

you have a team that begins and ends

their season with non-conference games

USC is a good example Clemson is a good

example so USC and Clemson uh USC plays

LSU week one Clemson plays Georgia week

one they're both dogs in the game so

they could both lose they could both be

0 and one but that's okay because it's

not a conference game all right so then

let's say USC and Clemson start off 0

And1 but they both go through their

regular season they lose one more game

it's a conference game they lose one

more game but they're good enough to

where they get to the end of the road

they don't play conference games in the

final week of the year so they know

they've got a trip to the conference

title game locked up all right and

especially in Clemson's case let's say

the accc's down this

year so they go into the South Carolina

game they're already a two- loss team

and before they even go to South

Carolina they know their only shot of

making the playoff is is the next week

winning the conference title game

doesn't even matter because the only

shot they have is the auto bid they

would get from winning the conference

otherwise they're not going to be in how

do they handle the South Carolina game I

know what you guys are thinking to

yourselves up in South Carolina or over

in South Carolina you're thinking this

would never matter in a in a rivalry

game like this the sanctity and

integrity of that rivalry game is worth

more than it is to me I agree with you

is it worth more than that to head

coaches is it worth more than that to

people with incentives in their contract

is it worth more to universities that

know they stand to substantially

financially gain from punching their

ticket to the postseason winning a

conference title Etc it is it is an

outlier of a scenario but if you don't

think that you could have a a what would

it be a 9 and2 Clemson I'm using Clemson

as an example 9 and2 Clemson and they're

going into the South Carolina game and

you already know regardless of the

outcome of that game your postseason

hopes are riding on the next week

because you're already in a watered down

ACC looking at a situation where only

the conference Champ's going to get in

there is no at llarge Hope for you you

could you could beat Clem you could beat

South Carolina into a coma if you go

lose a third game even if it's your

conference title game you're not going

to get in how you handling your rotation

there for the South Carolina game uh

Utah Utah goes to UCF the last week of

the regular season what if what if Utah

already has a spot in the Big 12

championship game locked up and

everyone's already come to realize the

Big 12 is going to get one spot in the

playoff it's going to be for the

conference champ do they rest starters

on the road even if it's conference game

if they know they're already locked in

it's irrelevant totally irrelevant

so uh we're in a situation now where we

get Auto bids and that's how we

determined seeding and that's how we

determined first round buys and doesn't

matter if you got six losses somehow if

you want a conference you get in that

could create some really interesting and

compromised positions for head coaches

at the end of the road hope it doesn't

happen could cause chaos though Academy

Sports and Outdoors not known for chaos

they are known for well everything else

let me tell you what this company's done

for me pretty much everything they bring

the show to you free of charge however

because of Academy Sports and Outdoors

and standing in line there I was

reminded that Big League 2 still exists

I used to survive on that stuff I used

to watch like Will Clark former

Mississippi State Bulldog playing for

San Francisco and he have that that huge

Chew in the side of his mouth and I'd

say Dad can I get some and say no you're

six you can't have tobacco products and

we we don't use it anyway kids but you

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six then well the thing about it is I

never really grew out of wanting to have

Big League Chew in my mouth but I grew

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go to Academy Sports and Outdoors where

you can find pretty much everything you

need in life Sporting Goods outdoor

camping equipment biking grilling but

you can also find big leagu in the

checkout line this story is going

somewhere so this past week I'm

scrolling through my DMs trying to reply

to some of you guys guess who dm' me Big

League Chew dm'd me and they asked my

favorite flavor and I said yes and they

said say no more we're sending you a

whole bunch and I gave this company my

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they could be Somalian hackers for all I

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doors any day week for big leag CH which

came because of Academy Sports and

Outdoors so you guys are going back to

school right now you guys are going back

to sports right now most of you are

going to a game this fall I know you're

going to tailgate I know my audience the

these folks are like tailgating

headquarters everything that you could

need even some stuff you don't know you

need you got it at Academy I mean what

is a Saturday morning on campus without

looking across a sea of Academy chairs

and and grills and Tents and Academy

doesn't make their own Grill but they

carry Pit Boss and Trager and charboy

they carry all of them so we appreciate

them all right let me put some chapstick

on or some uh lip balm whatever that

stuff's

called it's about to get really serious

here appreciate you guys

watching I see a lot of people saying

they don't have an academy in their

backyard in the chat

academy.com you don't have one in the

DMV I know you guys got internet up in

Maryland so check out academy.com thank

you for your feed

feedback

so it's time to release the week one

edition of the JP poll the JP poll is

not actually a poll you guys are right

I'm just not changing the name because

the name JP pole is very catchy and it

is a marketing slogan and if you don't

like it I don't really care that's

disrespectful I care but just not enough

to change it the JP poll is a power

rating no different than if we were an

oddsmaker and we ran our sports book

over here these would be the raw numbers

we use to generate point spreads that's

how Washington kept winning last year

that how Washington beat Oregon last

year but stayed beneath Oregon doesn't

mean they're necessarily incapable of

beating Oregon again in fact they did

two times the Dirty Little Secret around

Vegas is last year Washington would have

been a dog a third time if they faced

Oregon and if you disagree with these

you you get to go bet on them that's

fine but by and large a power rating

model I have a lot more fun with than a

ranking model because your wins and

losses don't matter here necessarily you

aren't what your record says you are

necessarily it is about a little bit

different way to view teams so I've got

our own model here and it's got

everything you could possibly have

plugged into it uh these are preseason

numbers so they are as Loose as we will

have in the numerical format all year

this stuff fluctuates a whole lot you

got to be if you're going to be Resolute

behind this stuff you've also going to

be willing to Pivot on a dime so I'm

about to show you because we got Florida

State's new rating baked into this so

I'll show you how far they fell so let's

start off Jesse and let Colin let's roll

through this let me give you a little

idea of the gap between teams as as well

I see the disclaimer on the screen I

appreciate that number one through five

is unchanged so Georgia Ohio State

Oregon Texas and Alabama are the first

five that's the same as it was a month

ago now all I've done is I've talked to

as many people as I can from Fall camps

injuries have been baked in here Texas

even with the running back injuries it

wasn't enough to drop them below Alabama

just to give you an idea of the Gap here

we would have Georgia favored by about

6.75 points against Alabama right now so

they're close to a touchdown Gap one

through five now 6 through 10's where it

gets interesting you would think Penn

State being the number six team is

really high I think it's a little high

too not absurdly high but if I were to

rank these teams I'd have a few of these

teams ahead of Old Miss or ahead of Penn

State but the model is like Skyhigh on

Penn State Penn State's the new Texas

apparently uh the model was high on

Texas forever and now everyone's high on

Texas so the model had to find a new pet

project and apparently it's Penn State

uh here's what's

interesting there's not a whole lot of

drop off between Bama and Penn State the

drop off is between Penn State and Old

Miss there's a two-point drop off

between number six and number seven

which just means on a neutral field the

model would favor Penn State by two over

Old Miss then all of you would proceed

to go bet Old Miss plus two I know that

uh this is what the model thinks and we

all know I've I've always been right on

this if anything was ever wrong it was

the model's fault that it was wrong so

old misses number seven Notre Dame is

number eight virtually unchanged they

dropped one spot they I think changed

places with Old Miss

Michigan I bumped them up to had them at

11 they're at nine now A&M bumped them

up three or four spots I think something

like that uh that was just due to Camp

Intel didn't change him a lot I mean to

get bumped up one or two spots you

probably get bumped up a quarter of a

point on your power rating so that's

just a good oldfashioned camp Intel bump

there number 11 through 15 what do we

see here Camp Intel bump from Tennessee

which is interesting because they had a

big injury to their Nickel in Fall camp

but in the aggregate heard enough things

that Tennessee I think got a half a

point bump not huge but it's enough to

bump you up three spots Oklahoma's 12

Miami pretty good bump there uh better

depth and versatility in the offensive

Back Field than I thought they had uh

Elijah a Royo really good player and so

um I also think think that they got some

they got some young DBS with with a fair

amount of Hope there especially one

corner so uh they're up five spots

they're at number 13 Miami's at 13 LSU

is at 14 LSU a little too much talk

about turnovers with nus in Fall camp

for me to just remain unchanged on them

so they dropped four spots which means

they dropped three quarters of a point

not a huge deal Missouri's at 15 let's

continue oh by the way by the way as

Colin rolled the slide there just to

finish on that Miami's 13 I'm going to

show you in a second we've got Florida

at 21 Miami goes to Florida which means

we have to bake in HomeField the model

has Miami minus one and a half Miami

winning by one and a half this Saturday

which is close to what the point spread

is so in other

words it would not be at all shocking

and it would not invalidate anything in

the model's eyes if Florida at home as

the number 21 team beat Miami however I

know what's coming if Florida wins that

thing 24 to2 this Saturday I will get

inundated with people who call Miami

overrated and it was a farce and where's

your JP poll now and don't worry we'll

be right back here Sunday to defend

ourselves as only we can but just just

understand if that happened it's not too

far out of line with what the model

would expect with these teams rated

where they are now number 16 through 20

Kansas State 16 same as they were Utah

17 as they were hearing some half decent

things on USC some people and it's been

hard to get out there for fall camp but

there are some people who have been able

to see some

practices USC may be just a little bit

better maybe just a hair better than the

old model thought they were so we bumped

them up two spots Clemson is the same

there's Florida state Florida State

plummeted Florida State fell all the way

to 20th that was a three and 3/4 Point

drop

pretty substantial pretty substantial

now there are some who will look at this

and say why is Georgia Tech not ahead of

Florida State well that's because

Florida state would still be favored

against Georgia Tech if they played

tomorrow um by a pretty healthy amount

by six or seven points probably so um th

this is where you figure out whether

this makes sense to you or not there is

no oddsmaker in his right mind that

would favor Georgia Tech on a neutral

field against Florida State if they

played tomorrow even though they just

played on a neutral field and Georgia

Tech won the football game which they

fully deserve to and if I were ranking

the teams I would have Georgia Tech

ahead of Florida State but this is not a

ranking it is everyone a power rating so

that's the difference Josh what well

what sense does it make to power rate if

it doesn't make sense to you this is not

the video for you it's it's very simple

I like to do this because it's a

different kind of exercise and it's a

lot more datab based and not so emotion

based that's why 21 through

25 Florida's number 21 unchanged

Oklahoma State 22 Wisconsin 23 Iowa 24

dropped him down two spot simply because

their projected starter at quarterback

actually is starting for them which

disheartens me a little bit and Iowa

State's at 25 I just tweeted the JP poll

out even though I'm live on air as we

finish the segment just because I want

to see my phone light up over here to my

immediate left as The Show Goes On so

there you go now my promise to you a lot

of fluidity in these numbers so my

promise to you there will be movement

Georgia plays Clemson this Saturday Ohio

State plays akan oh prayers for akan

early running for Sarah mcglaughlin

special akan getting 50 and a half

against Ohio State Oregon plays uh I

can't remember who Oregon plays Texas

Bama so probably won't have any upsets

in the top five unless Clemson pulls one

off against Georgia and by the way man

if that happened if Clemson were to beat

Georgia again not biggest upset in the

world just remember we did the most

talented teams thing the other day

Clemson at least if you believe the 247

Sports Talent composite fifth most

talented roster in the country getting

nearly two touchdowns against Georgia

the number two most talented roster in

the country let us move on let us move

on oh by the way Colin did I show you

this let's see how this Pops in here so

the good thing about running your own

store is you get the early

prototypes uh I think that the patches

on the hats look great so if you're

listening on podcast oh it smells great

too uh I think that we're about to

reopen the P state store and these hats

are sweet I think we're going to sell

roughly 75 million of these so they're

going to sell out whenever we put them

up Pate material.com it's not open yet

I'll let you know when it's opening but

these these things right here I'd wear

this now I'd wear this all kind of

different colors talked to a certain

outdoor camo company today about a

partnership so yeah I list listen to

your feedback and a lot of the products

you have asked for and longed for will

be in there big week coming up around

here got I got a bigger announcement

than that before the show goes off the

air actually huge week around here

anyway let's dive back in So reports

today as we sit here on Sunday whatever

this is the 25th of August reports

Michigan receives NCAA notice of

allegations well well well the NCAA can

be sloppy about every other thing under

the Sun but they will not be slopp about

timing because friends this is also the

week that the Connor stallions Netflix

documentary drops they don't care about

that I promise you these are the most

fragile vain people on the face of the

Earth the NCAA very much cares they

probably got a countdown clock in their

facility to the Connor stallions Netflix

documentary I don't care if that thing

has nothing in it or if it's loaded with

Bombshells these people very much care

so what's happening here well at nothing

probably quickly because Michigan gets

this thing and that's standard operating

procedure if you've got a an NCAA

investigation into you they wrap up the

investigation then they send you a

notice of allegations basically here's

what we think you're guilty of you've

got 90 days to respond most of the time

that's just code for okay now the

lawyers can go to work so uh the reports

are that pretty much what Pete thill and

Dan Murphy put out a couple of weeks ago

is what is in this thing which is just

brilliant because the word from the NCAA

in their statement today

was for the sanctity and respect for

integrity of the investigation we're not

releasing any details uh mainly because

we already leaked them a few weeks ago

very convenient anyway so the NCAA is

not accidental about this timing I am in

wait and see mode on this I've gotten

some very fiery responses from you guys

because I told you well me personally

based on what I've heard so far I've

heard definite evidence that Michigan

had wrongdoing and they cheated I've

told you that there's a certain

threshold you know beyond which the

allegations have to go for me to view

their title is Tainted thus far it

hasn't gone beyond that okay I had some

really good emails sent to me a couple

in particular you know who you are of

people arguing the opposite of people

arguing that well it all becomes

relative once you allow for an ounce of

it you you allow for an ocean of it

because once you start down the slippery

slope there 's no coming up and you're

not wrong you're not in fact a lot of

you made really really good points that

I thought candid were better than

mine having said that okay let's say

you've got your opinion on this I've got

mine my point has been I'm in waitand

see mode on this I'm not team Michigan

I'm not team anti- Michigan I'm looking

at it I saw him win the title last year

it's my personal feel that what I saw

was pretty pretty legitimate and

authentic uh you can disagree with that

that's fine reasonable Minds can

disagree but I'm in waight C mode

because there is a world where some

stuff comes out of this that you and I

had never heard of before there is that

world there's a world where the craziest

most fanatical rumors that have ever

seen the light of a message board

actually come true there's another world

where it's pretty procedural and the

NCAA just wants Financial restitution um

but there is a there's a third thing

that I'm looking at here and I'm looking

at that documentary coming out this

week um

couple of approaches all right let me

get to the documentary in a second I

wouldn't put it past the NCA to know the

endgame here and the end game is we

don't bring the hammer down on anyone

even if we did they'd crush us in court

because we stay getting crushed in court

so we know this is going to end with

them agreeing to a financial settlement

with us and we're going to find them and

Chiron Moore is going to sit out a

meaningless game and that'll be it and

we'll be able to say look we got one and

michig will be able to say

all so that's probably how they know

this ends but if they know it ends that

way and they know Michigan Chuckles

walking out the door what you can do is

you can punish them procedurally and

what that means is if you know you're

really not going to get the Maze and

blue scalp on the wall that you want you

can just drag them through all kinds of

mud in the process for example you can

leak reports ahead of a documentary or

you can serve a notice of allegations

checks watch the week of their first

game to distract as much as you could

possibly try and distract so you know

you don't really have them at the end of

the day you can just make their life as

miserable as you can in the Aggregate

and maybe that's a little bit of um

maybe that's the pound of Flesh that you

want to exact now as for this

documentary a couple of you when this

news came out today and I just all I

tweeted out I think was nothing about

this timing is

coincidental couple of you said theaa

don't care anything about that Connor

stallions documentary yeah they

do they care about it

they care about it uh because they're

probably a little more aware of some of

the stuff that could be in it than the

average Joe now this documentary could

be a clown show could be an in fact I

expect elements of it to be a clown show

it is not it's not going to be the most

hard-hitting piece of Netflix journalism

that you've ever been slapped in the

face with uh so what I expect this week

when I watch that thing is I expect to

laugh a lot I expect to say what in the

world is this dude doing on camera a lot

but I also expect to say hold on rewind

that hold hold on he's got what they got

what now that's the kind of documentary

you're probably in for not the most

revealing piece of content that you've

ever seen in your life however uh

normally I would understand you guys

when you'd be saying well the NCAA

doesn't care what's in this documentary

well they care about what's in the

documentary if they're in the

documentary and I think they may be in

the documentary is all I'm saying so HST

amongst us knows what any of that means

but uh I don't think this timing is a

coincidence so another one of you asked

me today hey are they going to drop the

hammer on Michigan or what no no

dropping the hammer is is very much a

bygone metaphor for what the NCAA used

to do punitively to programs the

conference is not going to allow that

the networks are not going to allow that

at this point some of my Michigan

viewers are saying are you kidding me

the conference didn't stand up for us at

all during this investigation well

that's because you as an asset really

weren't hurt last time I checked

Michigan ran the table and won the

national title last year viewership was

through the roof you as an asset were

not hurt last year if they were to strip

you of scholarships if they were to try

to impose a bowl ban on you and all that

sort of thing and a a postseason ban

will that hurt you as an asset all of a

sudden Michigan football in my content

portfolio is not worth what they used to

be worth that's not an option NCAA

doesn't run this sport networks do and

so if a network or conglomeration of

them in the big 10's case look and say

hold on these folks in Indianapolis

think they're about to do what that's

not happening whatever backro dealings

and phone calls need to be made will be

made that's not going to be allowed to

happen so it is very very very likely

that dropping the hammer incaa style in

2024 just means we're going to hit you

financially you know the the other the

other member institutions are no friends

of Michigan right now make no mistake

about it they they they're no friends of

them but they know that in a roundabout

way Michigan's worth is tied into their

worth so they're not going to allow them

to be damaged as an asset what they

would allow is they would allow them to

be hit individually financially which is

probably the end game here so my

followup as it relates to this season on

the field is is the NCAA about to do the

same thing again are they about to arm

Michigan again CU last year that team in

that program bottled that whole deal up

about as well as anyone could in an us

against the world moment and uh they won

versus The World by the way are they

doing that again this year will it even

matter does that stuff even matter do we

make too much of that they've play

Fresno State this Saturday in the big

house they play Texas two weeks from now

in the big house that'd be a pretty good

game to go to imagine being there

they're watching us in Lawrence Kansas

aworth Georgia van bu Arkansas and

Trinidad Colorado thank you guys so

much question question for the room here

got a lot of you watching live do me one

favor as you're watching live I know a

lot of you have come back to college

football welcome back happy to have you

do me a favor and check and make sure

you're subscribed to the channel and the

podcast some of you think you are but

check anyway because it's at this moment

you realized oh wait I'm not subscribed

do me a favor it cost you nothing it

does nothing there's no no string attach

it's a favor to us subscribe to the

channel or the podcast and that's it

that's my request okay John hit me up

from Glendale Arizona he said could you

rank the top quarterbacks this season

yeah I could I think Carson Beck's the

best quarterback in the country to come

into this season 72.4% completion guy

last year 281 passing yards per game 24

to6 touchdown to interception does all

that carry over sometimes it doesn't I

think it will he was in a top five

scoring off offense last year don't have

any reason to believe that would drop

off he is an nil gift Carson Beck is not

playing college football this year if it

were 2014 instead of 2024 nil has made

it possible for a lot of these late

first early second round type talents to

come back instead of testing the waters

so it's not all the Devil he's got an

elite offensive line good pass catchers

here tight end even without Brock Bowers

one of the best tight end rooms in the

country again I just think sometimes we

need to pause and understand we just

said we watched a truly a generational

tight end Talent overused word but not

in Brock Bower's case we watch him go to

the NFL and the room he vacated is still

one of the top tight end rooms in the

country wow Dylan Gabriel I struggled

with where to place him here he couldn't

ask for more man from a surroundings

standpoint will Stein is one of the

hottest Rising offense coordinators in

the country he will probably have the

best onew receiver combo to deal with

he's got an all conference tight end to

throw the ball to he was top 10 last

year at Oklahoma in completion

percentage uh pass yards per game pass

touchdowns the NFL guys I I talked to a

number of NFL scouting types to get

their read on college players Dylan

Gabriel does not project to some

Superstar at the NFL level he is a star

at the college football level uh

probably like lower tier arm strength

size Etc it's it's not like he's Cam

Newton 2.0 or anything like that but at

the college level the guy can win a

National Championship I look so forward

to seeing him and there were only a

couple of these tests coming per year

but like against Ohio State secondary of

of having to thread it and having to zip

it in a window that's a lot tighter um

all due respect than the ones he had to

fit it in in the Big 12 look forward to

that but he's up there cam Ward at Miami

is up there now the difference with Cam

Ward is last year he's fourth in pass

yards per game he's number one I think

Jesse amongst quarterbacks who returned

25 to7 touchdown to int ratio last year

that was up at Washington State so he

comes down to

Miami maybe he'll hit the ground running

my feel around Miami and like cam

the offense is I actually expect a

little bit of clunkiness in the early

part of the Season just sort of working

Kinks here and there out I think event

maybe week one maybe week five he is

right up here with the best quarterbacks

in the country and their offense is up

there with one of the best offenses in

the country it'll be very balanced

they've got really good talent and

versatility in their running back room

but also I mean again Elijah aroyo tight

in waited for him last year got hurt in

the preseason uh he is not hurt now and

so I look for him to be one of the best

weapons along with you know Restrepo the

brown kid they got from Houston a lot of

good players there Jackson Dart where

would you put Jackson Dart because I

came to this part Jackson Dart Quinn ERS

you know which one goes goes where

Jackson Dart is the by far the best dual

threat on this list 23 to five touchdown

to int last year through the air but he

also ran for eight touchdowns and he's

got just weapon after weapon out wide he

is the unquestioned leader I think of

that offense they have got I think in

ulysis Bentley an elite running back

Talent so it's not on his shoulders he's

a guy who could take it on his shoulders

but the entire weight of the load is not

on his shoulders uh Quinn yers I just

mentioned him at Texas this is the guy

who has the biggest year on his hands

because I've seen it from some of these

other guys I've seen it I have not seen

Quinn y's top end game I don't think I

have if I have then we've overrated him

a little bit he was top 12 last year in

completion percentage and passing yards

per game um top 12 okay that's great but

we're we're trying to talk top five or

top six here is he that is he that he's

got the same system for a third year in

a row same program same coordinator so

the consistency is around him it's a

familiar environment they did as good a

job as they possibly could losing those

pass catchers to go

backfill um he's got it to do he's

workable schedule he's got it to do

still some work to be done to be a top

five in the country

and then there's just the other list of

guys like milro could be in here shador

I mean shador you know I looked at this

and if I put shador Sanders on any of

these teams shador Sanders is a lock to

be a top five quarterback so it wasn't

strictly like a power rating system of

quarterbacks I did take that into

account but I also took your

surroundings into account and who knows

man maybe shid will be that regardless

but Brady cook at Missouri Drew Aller at

Penn State cam Rising back for his 19

season at Utah faf out at Arizona

wouldn't be surprised at all to see him

pop up there Garrett nus I know I said

that maybe turnovers have been a bit of

an issue in Fall Camp that's fall Camp

man you work that out maybe he just

comes out and throws for four touchdowns

against USC and Garrett nusers

immediately in the conversation all that

could happen all that could

happen

um big moment in the show here so f a

couple of things I need to tell you the

first thing I need to tell you col let

me make sure I'm where I need to be yes

I am so the first thing I need to tell

you is I'm about to give you the first

two picks on the ramen noodle Express

this year which means I need to explain

to a lot of you who are new around here

what the ramen noodle Express is way

back in the day I'll explain more about

this on Tuesday because on Tuesday night

I'm going to do an entire explainer on

all the inside jokes and nomenclature of

the show everything that's on the show

that makes no sense to you I'll do it

all at the end of Tuesday night show

I'll just explain it all in the

meantime uh the ramen Express because of

times that were more impoverished for me

down in Columbus Georgia is the name of

our segment for the games that we move

on and we bet every week and I it could

come at any time it is imperative that

you're following on social at Lake kick

Josh because during the week normally

I'll just tweet these out at random

because I'm looking at the lines over at

FanDuel and when they move where we want

them we move it's not always when I'm

live on air in fact most times it's not

when I'm live on air so at Lake kick

Josh make sure you're following but

since we're back to college football and

since it's Sunday night and we got the

week one lines pretty well hammered out

to where they're going to be I figured

we'd go ahead and move on a couple of

these first pick of the year who do you

think is going to be there's a drum roll

for you who you think it's going to be

gonna be Bama is it gonna be USC is

going to be Kentucky no it's going to be

Kent State plus 24 and a half against

pit in week one that line is available

boom I'm looking at it right now at

FanDuel Kent State plus 24 and a half

next up on the ramen noodle Express

powered by FanDuel

everybody seems to be warning Colorado

about this week one game against North

Dakota State this is a time in history

where you have to sort of kind of lay a

little bit of a premium to bet

Colorado actually I'm doing that in week

one I think Colorado is going to beat

North Dakota state by double digits so

I'm laying nine and a half with the

Buffs that line has come down and I

think it probably is on its way back up

we're comfortable with the line where it

is so Colorado minus 9 9 and a half Kent

State plus 24 A2 those are the early

Best Bets on the ramen noodle Express

this week do not bet money you don't

have on

this um don't be parlaying these that's

my advice FanDuel would be happy to take

your parlay action my advice is these

are not meant to be parlayed

also um don't be

um don't be looking at these and

thinking well okay I'm going to pick out

the ones that I agree with him on but

I'm not going to bet the ones I don't

agree on my advice is BET them all or

don't bet any of them if you're going to

just cherry pick you might as well bet

the games that your gut tells you to bet

so that's all that's always it seems to

be a winning strategy I know I used to

do it I used to subscribe to the T

sheets when I was in high school and say

now wait a second if I bet what that guy

tells me to but I only filter it through

what I agree with I'll I'll hit 60% no

problem no you won't you'll hit the

exact percentage you always would have

hit so right now at FanDuel and I want

you to listen up I want you to listen up

if you can't afford to bet this stuff

don't even be going to sign up but if

you want to have some fun and you can

afford to responsibly this fall you can

go over there and sign up right now

couple of things new signups right now

you bet $5 it doesn't matter if the BET

wins or loses they're going to put

another 200 in your account welcome to

FanDuel um that's guaranteed no matter

the outcome by the way so if you're a

new user that's for new users you can

use this link FanDuel

/ CFB promotion that helps us that lets

them know we sent you fanduel.com

CFB promotion or if you're watching

right now you just click on that QR code

so FanDuel they're powering the ramen

noodle Express uh they're they're

powering the odds entirely on this show

and we appreciate them so much uh last

question and then I got to get out of

here because I have other chores to tend

to tonight Colin you got that herb

Street question very rare that we do a

segment like this Mike hit me up and

said hey lol how awesome was it hearing

NL fans boo Herby every time he spoke on

game

day not all that awesome I guess was the

the kind of secret that no one wanted to

tell you guys yesterday it sounded kind

of lame I'm all for you doing it that's

fine with me I've I've always loved the

will muschamp quote I'd much rather have

to tell a horse whoa boy than have to

constantly tell a horse gidy up he was

talking about football players I feel

the same way about fan bases so if the

worst thing a fan base does is act

overly passionate and enraged because

they perceive a wrongdoing fine by me I

had it directed at me not to the degree

herb Street did I mean there are people

who paint herbstreet as like the face of

the deep state of college football now

shockingly he is not but I know a lot of

you believe that and you you couldn't be

told otherwise we experienced it though

remember because I did my little

flip-flop on Florida State last year and

I at one time said no matter if Jordan

Travis is hurt or if he's playing if

Florida State's undefeated they belong

in the playoff but then at the end of

the day I said I thought Alabama should

have gotten in so that sounded

hypocritical that sounded like a

flip-flop so then everyone came after me

as well and um let me let you guys in on

a little something I know a lot of you

orchestrated going and down voting the

videos and the podcast that actually

helped us so I would appreciate you to

continue doing that my advice if you're

trying to hurt us is probably find

another way um just just a little friend

piece of advice that actually helped us

that actually boosted us a lot I don't

know how but it did so there was really

no reasoning like it didn't matter at

that point for me to explain myself

there was no reasoning but the tradeoff

for people being passionate is sometimes

this stuff happens so if herb Street

gets booed on game day he's an adult he

can take it he can get on his private

jet and fly home I mean what a life to

live right so I did see him fire a tweet

off probably somewhere over the Atlantic

and it was it was it takes a big man to

tweet that he didn't he didn't address

it he didn't address the booing he just

said a tough loss for the Noles and I

looked at it and I smiled and I said I

know what he's doing I know what he was

doing but here's the thing about it I

used to traffic in this stuff real talk

I grew up in Atlanta Braves fam and I

used to swear to you that ESPN was out

to get the Braves you could never tell

me otherwise and I would cherry-pick

where they got placed they're in the C

block of sports center whereas the Mets

are in the B Block even though the Mets

are 15 games out of first place and the

Braves are right in thick of it

I had no shortage of evidence just like

you guys have no shortage of evidence

that there is a grand media conspiracy

and was last year around FSU uh I got

inside the media business here's what

changed my opinion of it number one I

kind of saw behind the scenes and I

realized yeah most of that stuff's fake

and then the other thing is I got

accused of a lot of it and I know me if

nothing else I know me I know how I feel

about Florida State I know uh you know

how I feel about any given matter in

this Sport and so I like I get accused

of I get accused of homerism all the

time being a hater sometimes of the same

teams but I remember having a

conversation with Jesse and management

and I actually said you know what's

dawned on

me these people are accusing me of the

same stuff I used to accuse like ESPN of

and I know I'm not guilty of it I laugh

at most of it so I'm sitting here

knowing me and then I started asking

wait a second was I wrong about that

stuff all those years and then

furthermore are are most of these Grand

media conspiracies just that grand media

conspiracies so let me go back just a

second um to to flip it back to Herb

Street y'all can boo herb Street all you

want to all he did was sit on TV and

give you his opinion mroy did the same

thing you came after him I did the same

thing you came after

me how many of you went after Bill

Hancock I'm not suggesting any of you go

after anyone by the way let me state

that very clearly for the record Mean

Tweets should be the extent of you going

after anyone

here's where I flip-flopped for a little

refresher course you want to know why I

sounded like a hypocrite you want to

know why I flip-flopped it's because for

this entire

process I was of the opinion I was under

the notion even that we were taking the

most deserving teams in the playoff I

just thought that was the language I

thought that was what they always had

done let me take you back to November

28th the week of rivalry week last year

Bill Hancock on his way out the door I

believe the chair of the playoff

committee said quote most deserving is

not in our

lexicon we're taking the best teams he

didn't have to say that he voluntarily

said

that so then I listened and I thought

well if that's your criteria that's

totally different if we're taking the

best teams I think bam would beat

Florida State at the end of the day when

I compare their resumes and I think

they're the better team all of a sudden

I didn't change status quo herb Street

didn't change status quo maroy didn't

change status quo they looked at the guy

with the playoff sticker on his lapel

and listen to what he said at least this

is what I did and I said whoa that's a

game changer we did two segments on it

on the show I said Bill Hancock said

what now at the 11th hour he said what

so I got to the end of the finish I got

to the finish line and I said I think a

couple of things I think they got the

right four teams based on their state

criteria and I think they screwed

Florida state which was perceived by

some to be fence riding no it wasn't I'm

telling you based on my understanding of

the thing from the whole time that

Florida State should have gotten in they

changed the language at the 11th hour

and all of a sudden they say it's not

about deserving which I thought it had

always been about no so so they changed

the score So based on that yeah I

thought Bama should have been in but

that was like five minutes old cuz I'd

never heard anyone talk like that before

so yeah congrats you boo herb Street and

and um then you got beat as a double

digit favorite so he still looks the

same today you don't I'm not sure who we

declare the winner there how about this

you have just watched the last episode

ever of Lake kick live do you realize

that no you don't because I have not

told you this we're not going anywhere

we'll be fine we'll be here Tuesday

night same as always but I'm kind of

tired of the name Lake kick and honestly

for those of you who forget the title of

the show you probably go on Google and

search Josh Pat's College football show

anyway so we're just going to change the

name of the show to Josh Pat's college

football show you should also know that

I wrapped up negotiation with CBS last

week and we've entered into a new deal

with them that deal has seen us take

complete ownership of this channel take

complete ownership of our podcast feed

that's ours now that's ours we own it

we're changing the name of it to what it

is which is Josh P's college football

show I know that just indicates my name

it's ours we own it I just had for SEO

purposes to put my name in there so

here's what's up uh Tuesday night we're

predicting all the games that's what we

do every Tuesday night Thursday night I

hate to tell you this this far ahead of

time but yet cold cuts will be back on

Thursday night I'm gonna bring CU in but

instead of just pandering and asking him

questions we're just going straight to

the live chat it'll be like the last

part of the Thursday

show I've got uh probably a couple of

more announcements to give you this week

so we got a a lot changing around here

but yet the thing that's going to remain

the same is the show we're going to

remain the exact same there so I got to

go because we have got another

commitment tonight I appreciate you guys

so much last Edition pop the champagne

for late kick live it lasted four years

Josh Pat's college football show live

Comes Your Way Tuesday night until then

for direct Colin for producer Jesse

thank you guys so much take care and God

bless for