Elon Musk Interview with Sam Altman (2016.9.15)
Summary
TLDRElon Musk discusses his views on the most important problems to work on today. He believes artificial intelligence is the most pressing item, stating its importance to ensure AI develops safely and benefits humanity. Musk also highlights genetics to solve diseases, brain-computer interfaces to augment human cognition, and making life multiplanetary. When asked for advice for ambitious young people, Musk suggests creating something useful, estimating possible impact and probability of success. He spends over 80% of his time on engineering and design, digging into the technical details at SpaceX and Tesla to improve rockets, vehicles, and factories.
Takeaways
- 😀 Musk believes AI safety is the most pressing issue today
- 🤔 He thinks democratizing and merging with AI is the best path forward
- 💡 Solving bandwidth constraints between brain and digital self is key
- 🔬 Genetics could help cure diseases like dementia
- 🚀 Mars colony possible in 9-10 years with non-zero chance of success
- ⏱ Humans are slow; production lines can be 20x faster
- 📈 Musk spends 80% of time on engineering and design
- 😮 Factories that build the machine matter more than the machine itself
- 🤖 Gigafactory will have a high level of automation
- 🚗 Optimizing for 1 meter/sec Model 3 production line speed
Q & A
What does Elon Musk think is the most important issue to work on regarding AI?
-Musk believes the most important thing regarding AI is to achieve democratization of the technology, so no single company or small group controls advanced AI. It should be widely available to avoid concentration of power.
What does Musk think is the second most important technology to work on?
-Musk believes genetics and solving diseases like dementia through genetic reprogramming could be the second most important technology to work on.
Why did Elon Musk start SpaceX despite the very low odds of success?
-Musk started SpaceX even with low odds of success because he believed if the company could move space technology forward even a bit before failing, it could inspire others to advance the technology further in the future.
How does Musk deal with fear when taking on risky projects?
-Musk says he feels fear quite strongly, but when something is important enough he does it anyway despite the fear. Letting the importance motivate action is key.
What is Musk's vision for a positive AI future?
-Musk's vision is that we achieve democratization of AI technology combined with solving the bandwidth constraints in brain interfaces, so humans can effectively merge with AI in a symbiotic way.
How does Musk spend most of his time currently?
-Musk spends about 80% of his time on engineering and design work - developing new products at SpaceX and Tesla.
What is the current factory production line speed at Tesla?
-The current production line speed averages about 5 centimeters per second between Model S and Model X.
What production line speed is Musk targeting in the future?
-Musk wants to increase the production line speed by 20 times to at least 1 meter per second.
Why does Musk believe improving manufacturing is so critical?
-Musk believes manufacturing improvements make a much bigger impact than improving vehicle design - saying the machine that builds the machine is at least one order of magnitude more important.
What does Musk think the odds are now of establishing a self-sustaining Mars colony?
-Musk says he is now certain that success in establishing a growing Mars colony is achievable, with odds seeming pretty good, whereas earlier he thought success might not even be possible.
Outlines
🤔 Musk's view on finding purpose and fulfillment
Elon Musk discusses his perspective on working on useful things that provide value to people. He says you don't need to change the world, doing a small amount of good for a large number of people is fine. He then talks about the 5 most important problems he sees affecting humanity's future - AI safety, genetics & healing diseases, brain-machine interfaces, making life multiplanetary, and sustainable energy.
😊 Advice to ambitious young people
When asked for advice for ambitious young people, Musk talks about assessing the utility, impact and probability of success of ideas. He also discusses his own thought process and motivation being focused on usefulness rather than business interests. He further touches on whether getting PhDs is necessary.
🚀 Musk's vision for settling Mars
Musk states he is now certain that settling a self-sustaining colony on Mars with meaningful number of people is a possible outcome within about 10 years. He talks about the importance of SpaceX not failing in that timeframe. He also compares communication latency between Earth and Mars.
🤖 Musk's perspectives on AI safety
Musk argues that widespread democratization of AI technology is critical for safety, rather than concentration in the hands of few companies or individuals. He thinks linking the cortex to digital extensions can help merge with AI. He also talks about how he views the progress of OpenAI.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡AI
💡neural link
💡SpaceX
💡Mars colony
💡sustainability
💡entropy
💡automation
💡existential risk
💡multiplanetary
💡limbic system
Highlights
AI is probably the single biggest item in the near term that's likely to affect humanity
It's very important that we have the advent of AI in a good way
Solving genetic diseases like dementia or Alzheimer's through genetic reprogramming would be wonderful
Having a high bandwidth interface to the brain is important for the future
If you make something that has high value to people, that's fine, it doesn't need to change the world
Trying to estimate probability of success for ambitious projects is important
Most civilizations tend to lose technology over time if people don't consciously work to improve it
It's normal to feel fear about ambitious projects, but you have to let the importance drive you anyway
For SpaceX, I thought the odds of success were less than 10%, but it was still important to try
For AI safety, we need democratization of the technology, not concentration in the hands of a few
Humans and AI symbiosis, with cortex neural interface, seems like the best outcome
I spend 80% of my time on engineering and design, not media or business
The factory itself matters more than 10x more than the final vehicle
We can get car production speed 20x faster to 1 meter/second
Humans can run over 10 meters/second, so 1 meter/sec factory speed is still slow
Transcripts
today we have Elon Musk Eon thank you
for joining us thanks having right so we
want to spend the time today talking
about
your view of the future and what people
should work on so to start off could you
tell us you famously said when you were
younger there were five problems that
you thought were most important for you
to work on um if you were 22 today what
would the five problems that you would
think about working on B well first of
all is it I think um if somebody is
doing something that is useful to the
rest of society I think that's a good
thing like it doesn't have to change the
world like you know
if you make something that has high
value to people and frankly even if it's
something if it's like just a little
game or you know the some improvement in
photo-sharing or something if it if it
how does a small amount of good for a
large number of people that's I mean I
think that's that's fine like stuff
doesn't need to be change the world just
to be good
but you know in terms of things that I
think are most likely to affect the the
future of humanity I think
AI is probably the single biggest item
in the near term that's likely to affect
humanity so it's very important that we
have the advent of AI in a good way but
that is something that
if you if you could look into the
crucible and enter the future you would
like you would like that outcome
because it is something that could go
could go wrong and as we've talked about
many times and so we really need to make
sure it goes right
that's best I think AI working on AI and
making sure it's a great future that's
that's the most important thing I think
right now
the most pressing item SEC then
obviously I think in to do with with
genetics if you can actually solve
genetic diseases if you can prevent
dementia or Alzheimer's or something
like that that West's genetic
reprogramming that would be wonderful so
I think this
genetics it might be a sort of second
most important item I think
having a high bandwidth interface to the
brain like we're currently
bandwidth-limited we have a digital
tertiary self inform of our email
capabilities like computers phones
applications how we're effectively
superhuman but we're extremely bad with
constraint in that interface between the
cortex and your sort that the tertiary
digital form of yourself and helping
solve that bandwidth constraint would
would be I think very important for the
future as well so one of the I think
most common questions I hear young
people at ambitious young people ask is
I want to be the next Elon Musk how do I
do that on
obviously the next Elon Musk will work
on very different things then than you
did but what have you done or what did
you do when you were younger that you
think sort of set you up to have a big
impact well I think this well I should
say that I do not expect to be involved
in all these things so the the the five
things that I thought about the time in
in college quite a long time ago 25
years ago
you know being you know making life
multiplanetary
selling accelerating the transition to
sustainable energy
the the internet broadly speaking and
and then genetics and AI I think I
didn't expect to be involved in in all
of those things I actually at the time
in college I sort of thought helping
with electrification of cars which was
how we start out and that's a that's
actually what I worked on as an intern
was
advanced ultra capacitors with to see
think there would be a breakthrough
relative to batteries for energy storage
and cars and then when I came out to go
to Stanford that's what I was going to
be doing my grad studies on is it was
working on a best at energy storage
technologies for electric cars and I put
that on hold to start an Internet
company in 95 because
there doesn't seem to be like a time for
particular technologies when they or at
a steep point in the inflection code and
and I didn't want to you know do PhD at
Stanford and then and what sure will
happen and then and I wasn't entirely
certain that the technology I'd be
working on would actually succeed I can
get you can get a you know doctrine or
many things that ultimately are not do
not have a practical bearing on the
world and I wanted to you know just I
really was just trying to be useful
that's the optimization it's like what
are what can I do that would actually be
useful do you think people that want to
be useful today should get PhDs um
mostly not some with what is the best
some yes but mostly not
how should someone figure out how they
can be most useful or whatever this
thing is that you're trying to create
what would what would be the utility
Delta compared to the current
state-of-the-art times how many people
it would affect so that's why I think
having something that has a that's that
has a mix makes a big difference but
effects a sort of small to moderate
number of people as great as is
something that makes even a small
difference but but affects a vast number
of people like the area yeah on you know
under the code yeah exactly I don't know
every under the curve is would actually
be roughly similar for those two things
so it's actually really about
yeah I just trying to be useful and
matter when you're trying to estimate
probability of success so you say
something will be really useful good
area under the curve I guess to use the
example of SpaceX mmm-hmm when you made
the go decision that you were actually
going to do that this was kind of a very
crazy thing at the time very crazy there
shortly yeah I'm not shy about saying
that but I kind of agree I agreed with
them that it was quite crazy crazy if if
the objective was to achieve the
best risk adjusted return sliding our
company is insane
but that was not that was not my
objective why I item to come to the
conclusion
that if something didn't happen to
improve Rock technology would be stuck
on earth forever and and the big
aerospace companies had just had no
interest in radical innovate
all they wanted to do is try to make
their old technology slightly better
every year and in fact sometimes we
would actually get worse and
particularly in Rockets is pretty bad
like the in 69 we were able to go to the
moon with a Saturn 5 and then the space
shuttle could only take people to
low-earth orbit and then the Space
Shuttle retired and that trend is
basically trends to zero it
if people sighs think technology just
automatically gets better over here but
actually doesn't it only gets better if
smart people would work like crazy to
make it better that's how any technology
actually gets better and
by itself technology if people don't
work and it actually will decline
you can look and look at the history of
civilizations many civilizations and
look at say ancient Egypt were they able
to pull these incredible pyramids and
then they basically forgot how to build
pyramids and
and then even hieroglyphics they've got
how to read hydrocal hieroglyphics so we
look at Rome and how they will to look
to build these incredible roadways and
aqueducts and indoor plumbing and they
forgot how to do all of those things and
there are many such examples in history
so I I think
choice bear in mind
that's you know
entropy is not on your side yeah
one thing I really like about you is you
are unusually fearless and willing to go
in the face of other people telling you
something that's crazy and I know a lot
of pretty crazy people you still stand
out uh where does that come from or how
do you think about making a decision
when everyone tells you this is a crazy
idea where do you get the internal
strength to do that
well first well I'd say I actually think
I feel feel fair quite strongly
so it's not as though I just have the
absence of fear I've I feel it quite
strongly
but there are times when something is
important enough you've leave it enough
that you do you do it in spite of the
fear so speaking of important things
like people shouldn't think I I i
should think well i feel fear about this
and therefore i shouldn't do it
it's normal to be to feel fear like you
have to do something mentally wrong you
shouldn't feel fair
so you just feel it and let the
importance of it drive you to do it
anyway yeah you know actually something
that can be helpful as fatalism some
degree if you just think it's just
accept the probabilities then that
diminishes fear so
we're starting SpaceX I thought the odds
of success were less than 10%
and I just accepted that actually
probably I would just lose lose
everything
but that maybe would make some progress
if we could just move the ball forward
even if we died maybe some other company
could pick up the baton and move and
keep moving it forward so that we're
slowly some good
yeah same with Tesla I thought your odds
of a car company succeeding were
extremely low what do you think the odds
of the Mars colony are at this point
today
well um oddly enough I actually think
they're pretty good
so like when can I go okay um at this
point I am certain there is a way I'm
certain that success is one of the
possible outcomes for establishing a
self-sustaining mass colony in fact
growing Lost Colony I'm certain that
that is possible whereas until maybe a
few years ago I was not sure that
success was even one of the possible
outcomes some meaningful number of
people going to Mars I think this is
potentially something that can be
accomplished in about 10 years
maybe sooner I mean maybe nine years I
need to make sure that SpaceX doesn't
die between now and then and that I
don't die or if I do die that someone
takes over who will continue that
shouldn't go on the first launch yeah
exactly like she's the first launch will
be a robotic anyway so I want to go
except for the internet latency
yeah they are at latency to be pretty
significant
i Mars is roughly 12 light minutes from
the Sun and Earth is 8 light minutes so
closest approach Mars is for light
minutes away that first approaches 20 a
little more because you have to you
can't sort of talk directly through the
Sun
speaking of really important problems
AI so you've been outspoken about AI um
could you talk about what you think the
positive future for AI looks like and
how we get there okay
I mean I do want to emphasize that
this is not really
something that I advocate or this is not
prescriptive this is simply pretty
hopefully predictive as he looks on to
say oh well like this is something that
I want to occur instead of so this I
mean I think that probably is the best
of the available alternatives
the best of the available alternatives
that I can come up with and maybe
someone else can come up with a better
approach or better outcome is that we
achieve democratization of AI technology
meaning that no one company or
small set of individuals has control
over advanced AI technology I think that
that's very dangerous
it could also get stolen by somebody bad
you know like some evil dictator country
could send their intelligence agency to
go steal it and gain control it just
becomes a very unstable situation I
think if you've got any
any incredibly powerful AI
you just don't know who's who's going to
control that so it's not as I think that
the risk is that the AI would develop a
will of its own right off the bat I
think it's more the consumers that some
someone
may use it in a way that is bad or and
even if they weren't going to use in a
way that's bad but somebody could take
it from them and use it in a way that's
bad that that I think is quite a big
danger so I think we must have
democratization of AI technology make it
widely available
and that's you know the reason that
obviously you me and the rest the team
you know created open AI was to help
with the democra
ni technology so it doesn't get
concentrated in the hands of a few at
and but then of course that needs to be
combined with
solving the high bandwidth interface to
the cortex
humans are so slow humans are so slow
yes exactly
but you know we already have a situation
in our brain where we've got the cortex
and limbic system and the limbic system
is kind of a tomato that's that's the
primitive brain it's kind of like the
your instincts and
whatnot and then the cortex is of
thinking upper part of the brain those
two seem to work together quite well
occasionally your cortex and limbic
system may disagree but they definitely
works pretty well generally works pretty
well and it's like rare to find someone
who I've not found someone who wishes to
either get rid of the cortex or get rid
of the Olympic system
very true yeah it's that's unusual so so
I think if we can effectively
merge with AI by
improving that the neural link between
your cortex and the
your digital extension yourself which
already likes that already exists just
has a bandwidth issue and then then
effectively you
become an AI human symbiote and and if
that then is widespread with anyone who
wants it can have it then we solve the
control problem as well we don't have to
worry about
some sort of evil dictator AI because
kind of we are the AI collectively that
seems like the best outcome I can think
of so you've seen other companies in the
early days that start small and get
really successful um hope I don't work
at asking this on camera but how do you
think urban AI is going as a six month
old company I teach Pico pretty well I
think we've got a really talented group
what opening eye and yeah really really
talented team and they're working hard
open a is structured as see a 501c3
nonprofit
but you know many nonprofits do not have
a sense of urgency it's fine they don't
have to have a sense of urgency
but opening ideas
cause I think people really believe in
the mission I think it's important
it's about minimizing
the risk of existential harm in the
future and
so I think it's going well I'm pretty
impressed with what people are doing in
the talent level and obviously we're
always looking for
great people to join the only mission
let's to 40 people knots yes well well
alright just a few more questions before
we we wrap up how do you spend your days
now like what what do you allocate most
of your time to my time is mostly split
what's between SpaceX and Tesla and of
course I try to spend
it's a part of every week at open AI so
I spend most I spend
basically half a day at opening I most
weeks and then and then I have some
opening I stuff that happens during the
week but other than that it's really
much basically translates X or Tesla
like what is your time look like they're
uh yeah so that's a good question um I
think a lot of people think I must spend
a lot of time with media or or on
business II things but actually almost
almost all my time like eighty percent
of it is spent on engineering design
engineering and design so it's
developing next generation product at
that's eighty percent of it
you probably remember this a very long
time ago many many years you took me on
a tour of SpaceX and the most impressive
thing was that you knew every detail of
the rocket and every piece of
engineering that went into it I don't
think many people get that about you
yeah I think a lot of people think I'm
kind of a business person or something
it just fine I like business is fine but
um a guy
really it's you know it was like it
SpaceX Gwynne Shotwell was chief
operating officer she kind of manages
legal finance sales and kind of general
business activity and then my time is
almost entirely with the engineering
team working on improving that the
Falcon 9 and the Dragon spacecraft and
developing the most colonial
architecture
and that Tesla
it's working on the model three and
yes I'm in the design studio took very
up
happening a week
dealing with aesthetics and and look and
feel things and then most of our week is
just going through engineering of the
car itself as well as engineering of the
factory because the biggest epiphany
I've had thus this year is that what
really matters is that is the machine
that builds the machine the factory and
this that is at least towards magnitude
hotter than the vehicle itself it's
amazing to watch the robots go here and
these cars just happen yeah now this
actually is has a relatively low level
of automation compared to what the
gigafactory will have and what model 3
will have what's the speed on the line
of these cars actually average the line
is incredibly slow it's probably about
a
including both X and s
it's maybe a 5 you know 5 centimeters
per second and what can you get this is
very slow or what would you like to get
to
I'm confident we can get to to at least
1 meter per second so 20-fold increase
that will be very fast yeah um at least
I mean I think quite a bit 1 meter per
second just put that in perspective is a
slow walk or like a medium speed Walker
fast or could be one and half meters per
second and
and then the fastest humans can run over
10 meters per second
so if we're doing point zero five meters
per second that's a very slow current
card for low speed and and at 1 meter
per second you can still walk faster
than the production line
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