700% Increase in SILVER Demand! Your Gold & Silver is About to Become "Priceless" - Rafi Farber
Summary
TLDRThis video script discusses impending economic turmoil, with the U.S. President's health and European political unrest causing market uncertainty. It highlights the Japanese Yen's decline, potential war implications, and the U.S. Midwest's industrial contraction as indicated by the Chicago PMI. The housing market's slump and sustained high silver premiums in Shanghai suggest a shift in the silver market. The script also addresses the intertwined fates of the Yen and Japanese bond market, predicting a challenging financial landscape in the coming months.
Takeaways
- đš Expect significant turmoil and substantial disruption over the next 4 months due to political and economic instability.
- đŽ The President of the United States is reportedly dealing with Dementia, adding to the uncertainty.
- đ Political chaos in Europe is causing concern and is reflected in the currency markets.
- đ The Japanese Yen is continuously dropping, with the Bank of Japan yet to respond effectively.
- đ Gold and silver are poised to respond dramatically to the current global turmoil.
- đŠ Bank Reserves are dropping, and repo volume is increasing, indicating potential financial instability.
- đ The Chicago PMI indicates a significant economic contraction in the central United States, with the longest contraction period in its history.
- đ Pending home sales have hit an all-time low, suggesting a struggling housing market.
- đ Shanghai silver premiums have remained above 10% for an unprecedented period, indicating strong demand or supply issues.
- đŸ The Japanese Yen's weakness is directly correlated with the weakness of the Japanese bond market.
- đ The percentage of Bank Reserves taken up by repos has reached 60%, nearing the levels that preceded the 2019 financial crisis.
Q & A
What is the main theme of the video update?
-The main theme of the video update is the significant turmoil expected over the next four months, with substantial disruption due to political chaos and economic challenges.
What health condition is the President of the United States reportedly dealing with?
-The President of the United States is reportedly dealing with Dementia.
How is the political chaos in Europe affecting the currency markets?
-The political chaos in Europe is unsettling the continent and is reflected in the currency markets, with gold and silver expected to respond dramatically.
What is happening with the Japanese Yen in relation to the Bank of Japan's response?
-The Japanese Yen keeps dropping, and the Bank of Japan has yet to respond effectively to this situation.
What does the speaker mean by 'apocalypse happened at about 87%'?
-The speaker is referring to the point at which 87% of Bank Reserves were taken up by repurchase agreements (repos), which led to a major financial crisis.
What is the significance of the Chicago PMI being below 50 for an extended period?
-A Chicago PMI below 50 indicates economic contraction. Being below this threshold for an extended period signifies a prolonged economic downturn in the central United States.
What is the current situation with pending home sales according to the video?
-Pending home sales have reached an all-time low, indicating a significant slowdown in the housing market and potential banking trouble in the future.
Why are Shanghai silver premiums remaining above 10% for an extended period?
-The sustained high premiums suggest a significant change in the silver market, possibly due to increased Chinese demand for silver.
What is the relationship between the Japanese Yen and the Japanese bond market as discussed in the video?
-The video suggests that the weaker the bond market, the weaker the Yen becomes, as the Bank of Japan owns a significant portion of the bonds, and the health of the currency is tied to the bond market's performance.
What does the video suggest about the potential impact of the Bank of Japan hiking rates?
-The video suggests that if the Bank of Japan hikes rates to address the currency crisis, it could lead to a bond market crash, further weakening the Yen due to the collapse in bond value.
How does the video connect the increase in Japanese consumer prices to the potential actions of the Bank of Japan?
-The video indicates that the rise in consumer prices could force the Bank of Japan to hike rates on its bonds, which would have a knock-on effect of crashing the bond market and weakening the Yen.
Outlines
đš Global Turmoil and Economic Challenges
The video script discusses the onset of significant global turmoil expected over the next four months, with substantial disruptions anticipated. It highlights the health concerns of the US President, political chaos in Europe, and currency market instability. The script emphasizes the dramatic response of gold and silver, the continuous drop of the Japanese Yen, and the potential for war. It also points out the economic contraction in the Midwest of the United States, as indicated by the Chicago PMI, and the record low pending home sales, suggesting a housing market crash. The speaker warns viewers to stay informed and prepared for the uncertain times ahead.
đ Unprecedented Silver Market Dynamics and Currency Performance
This paragraph delves into the sustained high premiums of Shanghai silver over New York, suggesting a significant change in the silver market driven by Chinese demand. It also addresses the poor performance of the Japanese Yen compared to other currencies and corrects a misconception about the relationship between currency and bond market crises. The speaker explains that a bond market crisis leads to a currency crisis, not the other way around, as the Bank of Japan's bond holdings directly impact the value of the Yen. The technical analysis of the Yen's value suggests an imminent drop with little support, potentially leading to a bond market crash.
đ Inflationary Pressures and the Impact on Japanese Economy
The final paragraph focuses on the rising consumer prices in Japan, which are at their second-highest reading post-CO era, indicating significant inflationary pressures. This is expected to force the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, which could lead to a bond market crash and further weaken the Yen. The speaker also discusses the high percentage of bank reserves taken up by repos, which is a warning sign of potential financial instability. The paragraph concludes with a call to action for viewers to engage with the content, subscribe for updates, and prepare for the challenging economic times ahead.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄDementia
đĄPolitical Chaos
đĄCurrency Markets
đĄBank of Japan
đĄRepo
đĄChicago PMI
đĄRecession
đĄHousing Market
đĄShanghai Silver Premiums
đĄYen
đĄBank Reserves
Highlights
Expect substantial disruption over the next 4 months due to turmoil.
The President of the United States is dealing with Dementia.
Political chaos in Europe is affecting the continent's stability.
Currency markets are reflecting the turmoil with gold and silver ready to respond dramatically.
The Japanese Yen is dropping with the Bank of Japan yet to respond effectively.
Bank Reserves are dropping and repo volume is increasing, nearing a potential financial crisis.
Shanghai silver premiums remain above 10% for the longest period ever recorded.
The Chicago PMI indicates a significant economic contraction in the Central United States.
The longest contraction in the history of the Chicago PMI index is currently ongoing.
Pending home sales are at an all-time low, indicating a struggling housing market.
Low pending home sales are causing banks to hold onto mortgages, potentially leading to banking trouble.
Sustained high silver premiums in Shanghai suggest a significant change in the silver market.
The Yen's performance in 2024 is worse than countries in hyperinflation.
The Bank of Japan's bond market and currency crisis are intertwined, affecting the Yen's value.
Japanese consumer prices are rising, nearing record territory, which may force interest rate hikes.
A high percentage of Bank Reserves taken by repos could indicate an impending financial crisis.
Understanding these dynamics is crucial for securing your financial future amidst the chaos.
Transcripts
the question isn't will they the
question is when they do how long will
it last Welcome to our important update
as we Face a period of significant
turmoil over the next 4 months expect
substantial disruption it is now clear
that the president of the United States
is dealing with Dementia and political
chaos in Europe is unsettling the
continent this turmoil is reflected in
the currency markets with gold and
silver ready to respond dramatically the
Japanese Yen keeps dropping and the bank
of Jaan has yet to respond effectively
stay tuned to learn how you can navigate
these uncertain times so let's start
watching the video now things are
starting to break down in the currency
markets we're getting closer to War what
kind of War exactly nobody knows but
we're definitely getting closer to war
and uh looks like uh Biden isn't doing
too well after the amazing presidential
debate and uh who knows if he's going to
be replaced or
who is he going to be replaced with all
kinds of political upheavals in Europe
and meanwhile the medals are calm but
Bank Reserves are dropping repo volume
is increasing we have hit 60% of Bank
Reserves taken up by repos remember the
apocalypse happened at about
87% uh so we could be weeks probably
months away from that point being hit
Bank Reserves hit a new low for the year
and Shanghai silver premiums remain
above 10% for the longest period ever
recorded which isn't that long of a
period but it's still the longest period
ever recorded in a word the world is not
calming down it is getting more frenetic
by the way and that is the Chicago PMI
purchasing managers index uh this is a
proxy for economic growth in the Chicago
area in Central North America Central
United States right Central United
States
uh we have here the Chicago PMI going
back to
1968 and the red line is where I put the
current read of what is it 35 or
something like that or something really
anything below 50 is contraction so two
things you can notice about this chart
is that we've been below 50 for the most
amount of months in a row excluding this
one month I think that was like a few
months ago maybe in April or May or
something but excluding this I think
we're 21 months in a row in contraction
and that is the longest contraction ever
uh in the history of this index here is
the lockdowns you had a reading of what
was it 29 I can't really tell the
numbers here but the only times when we
have lower than we are now meaning more
in contraction than we are now was
during the lockdowns when uh moving
around was illegal and doing anything
was illegal because uh we were saving
the planet and thank god it worked and
there were no negative side effects to
lockdowns and everything was perfect uh
and okay we also have the 2008 great
financial crisis we we had lower reads
than we have now for about four or five
months in that period um and time before
that was
1981
1982 and that double dip recession
around when gold was at going to record
highs and silver hit 50 for the first
time so this is a pretty extraordinary
number it means that the economy the
industrial econom is really crashing in
uh the central region of the United
States or Midwest is what they call it
whatever Chicago is technically called
who cares and uh it's clear signs that
the next and final official recession is
gaining steam pending home sales why am
I going to this because we're at a new
all-time low in pending home sales
pending home sales alltime low means
banks are stuck with mortgages are the
point I want to make here so circled
here you have the housing crash of 2008
um that is when pending home sales hit a
low of about 80,000 I think that number
is the last one was 70 which is actually
for the first time since the lockdown is
lower than the lockdown low in 2020 of
whatever that number was we're lower now
uh so we're building fewer houses now
than we were when it was illegal to do
anything uh that tells you something
about the housing market nobody's
selling homes in a pending manner uh
what what does that tell you about
prices well why aren't prices falling if
pending home sales are as low as they
ever been um because people have these
low rate mortgages that they locked in
at low interest rates and they don't
want to get rid of them because the
interest rates are going up and if they
were to buy a new house they would have
to refinance the higher interest rates
so they're just holding on to the
interest rates and who is uh getting
hurt because of that well it's the banks
that own the mortgages which means
you're going to have some banking
trouble at some point uh probably very
soon Shanghai silver premiums we'll talk
about silver for a second so I Zoomed In
Here For the First Time gold charts us
is making it available so I zoom in on
2024 I don't know why that hasn't been
available until now but now that I can
see it I can show you uh that we've been
above the 10% premium line the black
line is what I drew in here 10% premium
Shanghai over New York um pretty much
the entire year excluding like a few
weeks maybe two or three weeks that
looks like two weeks uh between March
and April we've been above 10% and we've
been above 8.5% basically the entire
year and if you zoom out uh you can see
that this has never really happened
before with the only times we've been
above 10% very very briefly for like a
few days during these periods and a
slightly longer period maybe a week or
so maybe two weeks uh in late 2014 as
silver was Finding its final lows uh
this is something else though this is
sustained Chinese demand from Shanghai
exactly what is fueling it I can't tell
you um I'm hoping it's silver stacking
but it's probably a combination of
different things since this these
premiums are being sustained it means
that there is a sustain change in the
silver market as Chinese people are
relating to Silver in a different way
now um I wanted to comment on this Zero
Hedge tweet mostly I agree with it but
there's one point that I want to correct
here in the Zero Hedge tweet so the Yen
we're going to talk about the Yen now
the Yen as we know broke through 161
this morning uh new low we'll get into
that in a second so Yen weaker than lra
and peso in 2024 so this is the
performance of different currencies
different International currencies
versus the dollar year-to date 2024 the
worst performing one is the Yen it is
worse than the Argentine peso which is a
country in hyperinflation uh it looks
like Melee jav AR might have mitigated
that a bit with his libertarian policies
we'll see if it follows through uh still
the Turkish lerra has been hanging
around where it's been versus the dollar
for 2024 but that Count's uh has been in
a jogging hyperinflation for years I
think two or three years now and the
Japanese yen is doing worse than them uh
so then the Tweet says and the latter
part of the Tweet the best part is once
you finally contain it it's talking
about the bank of Japan to the Yen once
you finally contain the currency crisis
in the Yen you have a bond market crash
to look forward to I slightly disagree
with that assessment and here's why this
is the next chart here so it says Yen
weakness directly correlated with
Japanese Bond weakness we can see here
and I've gone through this few times I
just want to have it's so important and
so few people understand this that the
weaker the bond market is the weaker the
yen is I've said it before and I'll say
it again how this contradicts what what
Zero Hedge is saying in its tweet is
once you contain the currency crisis
then you have a bond market crisis but
no once you have a bond market crisis
you also have a currency crisis they
happen at the same time because the yen
is the bond market because the bank of
Japan owns so many bonds that's what the
yen is so as the bond market unravels so
does the currency there is no way to
strengthen the Yen at this point if you
hike rates if the bank of Japan hikes
rates let's say four or 5% to get rid of
the spread between the dollar and the
Yen then the Yen collapses anyway
because the bonds on its balance sheet
collapse in value and so does the
purchasing power of the Yen here is the
chart of the Yen and I want to show you
the technical situation we're in now
this is quite interesting so I think the
the latest numbers on this is not 1609
before I think it's 161.000 or something
like that whatever we broke through 161
this is above the 1990 low here remember
the higher this is the lower the yen is
is the amount of Yen it takes to buy a
dollar uh the final support here that is
that might not even be a support because
it's so uh it's so blippy it's very very
um tenuous over here is 163.190 October
1986 so 16029 we had one blip and then
after that we pretty much have no
support until we hit this line over here
this dash line of
189.5 so the 163 I'm getting from this
number over here where I moused over and
I froze the screen so we have 163 and
then 189.5 there's basically nothing
between
1633 and 189.5 so once we bake through
163 which could be in the next few days
it could be imminently um we could head
towards 189.5 and none of this uh
precludes that the bank of Japan won't
intervene here they still have cash to
intervene the question isn't will they
the question is when they do how long
will it last a few days a few weeks a
month who knows uh and what number are
they waiting for I have 100 might be
163.5 here the final support Zone when
they might smash it and then get the Y
back into the 150s somewhere and then we
can uh maybe a few weeks maybe a month
later you can start heading towards
189.5 we'll see what happens how is this
affecting the Japanese
uh consumer prices you can't see the the
bar on this chart here but I put the
line where the latest read is this is
month-over-month consumer prices I don't
like calling inflation because it's just
the effect of inflation so I said here
Japan consumer prices Advance 0.5%
second highest reading postco era so 05%
there's only one two three times um
we've hit that number since I think this
is 2008 maybe 2007 uh and if you want to
go back one two three four times since
the Asian financial crisis somewhere in
there um this is a very very high read
this is uh close to record territory
here which will uh Force the boj the
bank of Japan to hike rates on its bonds
which will crash for the bond market
which will make the end even weaker
there's no way out here there just there
just isn't um this final chart um this
is the percentage of Bank Reserves taken
up by repos um we are up to about 60% we
were at 55 56% last week we've jumped 4%
to 60% and the rep apocalypse the the
major financial crisis of 2019 happened
around here at 85% when repos took about
about 85% of Bank Reserves Bank Reserves
fell to 3 3.26 trillion I believe thank
you for watching and exploring these
critical insights with us as we prepare
for the next few tumultuous months
understanding these Dynamics is crucial
for securing your financial future if
you found this analysis helpful please
like share and subscribe for more expert
insights and strategies hit the
notification Bell to stay updated with
the latest Market movements join the
discussion in the comments below let's
build a community ready to face these
challenges together remember silver
shines brightly amidst the chaos until
next time stay informed stay prepared
[Music]
Voir Plus de Vidéos Connexes
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)