日経平均株価暴落どした!?株は買い時なのか？ズボラ株投資

草食系投資家LoK Re:

19 Apr 202410:03

Summary

TLDRIn this video, the host discusses the significant drop in the Nikkei average, which fell over 1000 yen today. Despite the decline, the crucial 37,000 yen mark was maintained. The host advises against impulsive buying during such drops, especially for beginners, recommending instead to wait for market stability and confirmation of a double bottom. Historical comparisons show similar drops have occurred, suggesting that patience and strategic planning are essential. The video emphasizes careful observation of market trends before making investment decisions.

Takeaways

📉 The Nikkei average has significantly dropped by over 1000 yen today, indicating a substantial market downturn.
🎯 The market has managed to hold above the first support level of 37,000 yen, which was a key psychological threshold.
🤔 There is still potential buying interest in the market, despite the downturn, suggesting that some investors see this as a buying opportunity.
🌐 The market's movement seems to be influenced by the Middle East situation, with information being complex and leading to uncertainty.
📊 Comparing the current week's drop of -6.2% with historical data, it ranks 42nd in terms of one-week decline since the 1970s, and 11th since the Abenomics era started in 2013.
📈 Past significant drops were often related to global events like the COVID-19 shock in 2020, but the current drop seems to be within the expected range of market fluctuations.
📉 Today's drop of 2.66% is not unusual in the context of historical market movements, indicating that while significant, it is not an extraordinary event.
🛑 For beginners, it's advised to avoid 'catching a falling knife' in such volatile market conditions, suggesting caution before making investment decisions.
📊 The script suggests observing a potential 'double bottom' pattern, where the market might rebound after establishing a second lower point.
📈 The speaker mentions the importance of watching for a reversal in the moving average trend as a signal for potential market recovery.
📅 The speaker also considers the timing of the year, with the approach of the fiscal year-end in May possibly leading to limited market movement, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before investing.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the video script?
-The main topic discussed in the video script is the significant drop in the Nikkei average and whether it is a good time to buy stocks.
What is the current situation of the Nikkei average mentioned in the script?
-The Nikkei average has dropped by more than 1000 yen, and it is currently maintaining around the first support line of 37,000 yen, which was previously a target.
What does the speaker suggest about the market's buying intention despite the drop?
-The speaker suggests that there is still a buying intention in the market, indicating that some investors might see the drop as an opportunity to buy.
What is the speaker's view on the scenario if the Nikkei average continues to fall?
-The speaker indicates that if the Nikkei average continues to fall, a different scenario needs to be considered, which could involve a more complex market situation where the direction is uncertain.
How does the speaker describe the reaction of the market to the Middle East situation?
-The speaker mentions that the market reacted to the Middle East situation, but the information is complex and confusing, leading to some sense of relief but also uncertainty about the future.
What historical data does the speaker refer to when discussing the Nikkei average's weekly drop?
-The speaker refers to the historical data of the Nikkei average's weekly drop rates since the 1970s, comparing the current drop to past significant drops, such as during the COVID-19 shock in 2020.
What is the speaker's advice for investors considering buying stocks after the drop?
-The speaker advises investors, especially beginners, to avoid catching a falling knife and to confirm the market situation, such as the formation of a second bottom, before buying.
What technical analysis concept does the speaker mention regarding the stock market's behavior after a significant drop?
-The speaker mentions the concept of a 'double bottom' in technical analysis, suggesting that investors should look for a second bottom that is higher than the previous low before considering a purchase.
What is the speaker's view on the use of moving averages in determining the trend of the market?
-The speaker suggests that moving averages, particularly the mid-term line, can indicate the market's trend, and investors should consider them when deciding whether to buy, especially if the line starts to flatten or turn upwards.
What is the speaker's personal action regarding the market situation?
-The speaker mentions that they have taken a position in ETFs before the market opened, but clarifies that it is a defensive buy, not a serious investment, and they are prepared to cut their losses if necessary.
What general advice does the speaker give about investment opportunities over time?
-The speaker advises that investors should not rush into buying just because the market has dropped, and that there will always be more opportunities in the future, so it's okay to miss out on some chances.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Stock Market Analysis Amidst Volatility

The speaker discusses the current situation of the stock market, noting a significant drop in the Nikkei average by over 1000 yen, maintaining the first support line at 37,000 yen. Despite the market's uncertainty, there is a sense of potential buying opportunity. The speaker mentions that while the drop is within expected ranges, further declines would require considering alternative scenarios. They also touch upon the influence of Middle Eastern situations and the information chaos, hinting at a slight sense of relief but acknowledging the unpredictability of the market's direction. The speaker provides historical context by comparing the current week's drop to past occurrences, placing it at the 42nd largest one-week drop since the 1970s and the 11th since the advent of Abenomics in 2013, alluding to the market's resilience to such downturns.

05:01

🤔 Cautious Approach to Stock Market Investing

The speaker advises a cautious approach to investing in the stock market, especially for beginners, emphasizing the importance of not 'catching a falling knife.' They suggest waiting for confirmation of a second bottom before considering buying, as this would indicate a more stable market. The speaker also discusses the importance of observing moving averages to identify trends and potential reversals. They mention their personal strategy of buying ETFs as a hedge against potential market movements, but clarify that this is not a serious buy-in. The speaker concludes by reminding viewers that there are always investment opportunities in the future and that it's unnecessary to rush into the market, especially when dealing with significant downturns.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Nikkei Average

The Nikkei Average, also known as the Nikkei 225, is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a price-weighted index that includes Japan's 225 top-rated companies. In the video, the speaker mentions the Nikkei Average falling by more than 1000 yen, indicating a significant drop in the market, which is central to the theme of the video discussing market trends and investment timing.

💡Market Sentiment

Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude or emotions of investors toward the market at a particular time. It is a key concept in the video as the speaker discusses the current market sentiment being cautious, with investors showing interest in buying despite the market's downturn, as indicated by phrases like 'there is still a sense of buying in the market'.

💡Support Level

A support level in finance is a price level at which a stock or security is expected to find support, i.e., it is seen as a price level that the security is unlikely to fall below. The video mentions '37,000 yen line' as a support level that the Nikkei Average has managed to maintain, suggesting it's a critical point for investors to watch.

💡Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. In the context of the video, the speaker talks about the need to consider different scenarios if the market continues to fall, emphasizing the unpredictability of the market and the importance of being prepared for various outcomes.

💡Middle East Situation

The Middle East situation refers to the geopolitical events and tensions in the Middle East region. The speaker mentions that the market reacted to the Middle East situation, indicating how global events can influence financial markets and investor behavior.

💡Investment Beginners

Investment beginners are new investors who are not yet experienced in the market. The video script advises caution for these individuals, suggesting they avoid 'catching a falling knife,' a metaphor for buying a security that is declining in price and may continue to fall.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a method used in the stock market to forecast the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. The speaker in the video discusses various technical indicators such as support levels and moving averages, which are part of technical analysis, to assess market trends.

💡Double Bottom

A double bottom is a chart pattern used in technical analysis that appears as a 'W' shape and is considered a bullish signal. The video mentions the importance of confirming a 'double bottom' pattern, where the price has fallen and then rebounded twice, indicating a potential reversal of the downtrend.

💡Moving Average

A moving average is a widely used indicator in technical stock analysis that helps smooth out price data to show longer-term trends. The video script refers to the moving average line, particularly the medium-term line, to discuss the current trend of the market and its potential reversal.

💡Risk Management

Risk management in investing involves the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated efforts to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events. The speaker in the video emphasizes the importance of risk management, advising against buying without considering the potential risks involved.

💡Investment Opportunities

Investment opportunities refer to situations that present the potential for profit from buying and selling financial assets. The video script reassures viewers that there will always be investment opportunities in the future, advising against the rush to buy just because the market has fallen.

Highlights

The Nikkei 225 index dropped over 1,000 yen today, maintaining the critical 37,000 yen support level, yet market buying interest remains.

Despite today's decline being within expectations, breaking below this level could suggest a shift to a more bearish scenario.

Market reactions to geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East crisis and Israeli missile news, contributed to the downturn, although the decline had started earlier.

The semiconductor sector's collapse in the New York market significantly influenced today's sell-off in the Japanese market.

Over the past week, the Nikkei has fallen by about 6%, a notable decline but not unprecedented in historical context.

Comparing this week's -6.2% drop to past declines, it ranks 42nd historically and 11th since the 2013 Abenomics era.

The largest weekly drops include events from March 2020 during the COVID-19 shock, emphasizing the current decline's relative normality.

Today's 2.66% drop is within the typical range seen in previous market corrections, not indicative of extraordinary conditions.

Maintaining the 37,000 yen level with substantial trading volume suggests some investors view this as a buying opportunity.

For novice investors, it's advised not to 'catch a falling knife' and to wait for market confirmation before buying.

It's crucial to wait for a potential double-bottom formation, where the market retests and confirms a higher low before considering buying.

Historically, major declines often experience a brief rebound followed by another drop before a more sustained recovery.

An ideal buy signal is when the second low is higher than the first, suggesting upward momentum and market strength.

Investors should be cautious of patterns where a series of lower highs and lows indicate ongoing bearish trends.

Monitoring the medium-term moving average trend is essential; a shift from downtrend to flattening or upward movement signals potential buying opportunities.

Investors are advised to avoid full-scale buying during initial drops and instead incrementally increase their positions as market conditions improve.

Consider the broader market context, including upcoming earnings reports and seasonal market trends, before making significant investment decisions.

It's important to have patience and not rush into the market during declines, as there will always be future opportunities to buy.

Long-term investors should focus on minimizing risk rather than chasing potential short-term gains during market turbulence.

Even experienced investors, like the speaker, use caution and partial buying strategies during uncertain market conditions.

It's prudent to avoid making major investment decisions before key financial reports and during periods typically characterized by market volatility, such as the summer.

Historically, the market often undergoes further declines during summer, offering better buying opportunities later in the year.

Ultimately, focusing on the big picture and long-term investment opportunities rather than short-term market movements is key to successful investing.