How is the war going? — September 2024

Summary

The video discusses the frontline situation between Ukraine and Russia, focusing on Kursk and the Donetsk region. It notes a slowdown in Ukrainian advances in Kursk but anticipates further territorial gains. The frontline in Ukraine is largely stable except for progress by Russia towards Pokhrovsk. The video also highlights the strategic importance of ongoing air campaigns by both sides, with Ukraine successfully striking Russian infrastructure despite a Russian push in Donetsk. It emphasizes the need to view current events within the broader context of the war.

Takeaways

• 🗺️ The frontline situation in Ukraine and Russia has been discussed, focusing on Kursk and the Donetsk region.
• 🔍 The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has slowed down, but they have taken significant territory.
• 🚧 The area south of the River Sejm is expected to be taken by Ukraine soon due to destroyed bridges.
• 📉 The frontline inside Ukraine has mostly stabilized, except for the Donetsk region where Russia is making progress.
• 🏭 Russia's progress towards the city of Pokhrovsk is a concern, with the city potentially facing a long and difficult battle.
• 🤔 There is debate in Ukraine about military strategy, including the use of resources in Kursk versus Donetsk.
• 🏹 Russia's main offensive is in Donetsk, and it's expected that they would make progress there.
• 🏙️ Urban combat in cities like Pokhrovsk will significantly slow down Russia's advance.
• 💥 Even if Russia occupies the entire Donetsk region, it does not mean they win the war; the conflict would continue.
• 🔥 Both sides are conducting strategic air campaigns, with Ukraine showing success in hitting Russian air bases and oil facilities.

Q & A

What is the current frontline situation in Kursk?

The Ukrainians have taken a significant chunk of territory inside Russia in Kursk, but the expansion has slowed down over the last week, leading to a more static situation at the frontline.

What is the strategic importance of the area south of the River Sejm?

The area south of the River Sejm is strategically important because it is essentially walled off with Ukraine to the south, east, and west, and the destruction of bridges by Ukraine is making it difficult for Russia to establish a foothold.

How has the frontline situation inside Ukraine stabilized?

The frontline inside Ukraine has mostly stabilized, with the exception of the Donetsk region where Russia is making progress, particularly toward the city of Pokhrovsk.

Why is Russia not making significant progress in most areas along the frontline?

Russia has taken soldiers from parts of the frontline, especially in the southern sector, and moved them to Kursk to control the situation there. Additionally, Russia may be prioritizing resources for focused efforts rather than spreading them thinly.

What is the expected timeline for Russian forces to reach the city of Pokhrovsk?

Given the progress made in August, it is expected that during September, Russian forces will reach the city of Pokhrovsk, marking the beginning of the battle for the city.

What is the significance of the discussion in Ukraine regarding the military commanders' decisions in the Donetsk region?

The discussion in Ukraine is significant because it revolves around whether military commanders have made mistakes in their strategy, such as not building adequate defensive lines, and whether resources should have been allocated differently.

Why is it not surprising that Russia is making progress in Donetsk?

It is not surprising because Donetsk is the main axis of the Russian summer offensive where they are concentrating their forces and firepower.

How will the fighting in Donetsk change when it moves from open territory to urban combat?

The fighting will slow down significantly when it moves to urban combat within city limits, as urban warfare is typically more challenging and time-consuming.

What is the importance of the long-range air campaigns conducted by both sides?

Long-range air campaigns are playing a crucial role, with Russia targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukraine successfully striking Russian air bases and oil facilities.

What are the implications of Ukraine's air campaign against Russia?

Ukraine's air campaign is significant as it demonstrates their capability to strike deep into Russia, causing potential long-term problems for Russia due to their shortage of air defense systems.

What does the speaker suggest regarding Western countries providing Ukraine with weapons for deep strikes into Russia?

The speaker suggests that it would be a good idea for Western countries to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons for deep strikes into Russia, as it would make a significant difference.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 Frontline Situation Overview

The video discusses the frontline situation between Ukraine and Russia, focusing on Kursk and the Donetsk region. It highlights a slowdown in Ukrainian advances in Kursk after significant territorial gains. The Ukrainians have effectively cut off a region by controlling the east and west while destroying Russian bridges over the River Sejm. The discussion suggests Ukraine may capture the entire area south of the river. The frontline in Ukraine is mostly stable except for the Donetsk region where Russia is making progress, particularly towards the city of Pokhrovsk. The video emphasizes the need to maintain perspective on the war's overall situation amidst various reports.

05:03

🏰 Donetsk Defensive Operations

This section delves into the Russian summer offensive's main axis in Donetsk, where Russia is concentrating forces and firepower. The video explains that while Ukraine is losing territory in defense, this is a normal part of defensive operations aimed at maximizing enemy losses rather than holding every kilometer of land. The discussion anticipates a slowdown in Russian advances once urban combat begins in cities like Pakrovsk, which may take months or even a year to fully capture. The video also points out that even if Russia occupies the entire Donetsk region, it does not equate to winning the war, as the conflict would simply shift to a new frontline. The importance of not overreacting to current events and understanding the broader military strategy is emphasized.

10:06

💥 Long-Range Air Campaigns

The final paragraph discusses the strategic importance of long-range air campaigns conducted by both Ukraine and Russia. It notes Russia's recent success in airstrikes targeting Ukrainian power infrastructure, which could become a significant issue as winter approaches. Conversely, Ukraine has been successful in striking Russian air bases and oil facilities using newly developed drones and cruise missiles. The video suggests that allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons for deep strikes into Russia could be beneficial. It highlights Ukraine's growing capability for such strikes due to technological advancements and production capabilities, as well as Russia's deficiency in air defense systems, which乌克兰 has been targeting. The paragraph concludes by emphasizing the increasing impact of Ukrainian air campaigns on Russia and the dynamic nature of this aspect of the conflict.

Keywords

💡Kursk region

The Kursk region is a significant area of discussion in the video as it marks a point of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The video describes how Ukrainian forces have made incursions into Russian territory in this region and the subsequent territorial gains they have made over time. The Kursk region serves as an example of the frontline situation and is a key area of focus when discussing the current state of the war.

💡Frontline

The term 'frontline' refers to the boundary line or area where opposing military forces are in contact. In the context of the video, it is used to describe the current battle lines between Ukraine and Russia, particularly in the Donetsk region. The frontline is where direct engagements and territorial disputes are actively taking place.

💡Donetsk region

The Donetsk region is a focal point in the video script, representing one of the main areas of conflict. It is where the Russian forces are making progress, and the discussion around the strategic importance of this region highlights its significance in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.

💡Strategic air campaign

A strategic air campaign is a series of planned and coordinated air operations designed to achieve specific objectives. In the video, this term is used to discuss the ongoing aerial engagements by both Ukrainian and Russian forces, which include airstrikes and the use of drones, emphasizing the importance of air power in the current conflict.

💡River Sejm

The River Sejm is mentioned as a geographical feature that plays a strategic role in the conflict. The video describes how Ukraine has destroyed bridges over this river, impeding Russian advances and creating a natural barrier that influences the frontline situation.

💡Pontoon bridges

Pontoon bridges are temporary floating bridges used for military crossings. The video discusses how Russia has been attempting to set up pontoon bridges over the River Sejm, but Ukraine keeps destroying them, illustrating the ongoing struggle for control over key geographical points.

💡Pokhrovsk

Pokhrovsk is a city in the Donetsk region that is highlighted in the video as a critical point of contention. The video anticipates that Russian forces will reach the city, suggesting an upcoming battle, which underscores the importance of this location in the ongoing conflict.

💡Defensive operations

Defensive operations refer to military actions taken to protect against enemy advances. In the video, this term is used to describe the actions of the Ukrainian forces in Donetsk, where they are strategically giving ground to maximize enemy losses rather than holding every piece of territory.

💡Urban combat

Urban combat involves fighting in urban areas, which is often characterized by its difficulty and intensity. The video suggests that when the Russians reach the city limits, the nature of the fighting will change to urban combat, indicating a shift in the type of warfare and its associated challenges.

💡Long-range air campaigns

Long-range air campaigns involve conducting air strikes from a significant distance. The video discusses the long-range air campaigns by both sides, emphasizing the strategic use of airstrikes and missiles to target infrastructure and military installations far from the frontlines.

Highlights

Overview of the frontline situation in Ukraine and Russia

Discussion on the situation in Kursk and the frontline in Ukraine, specifically the Donetsk region

Mention of the strategic air campaign by both sides

Effort to keep the big picture for people amidst the war debate

Use of maps from deepstatemap.live for visual aid

Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region nearing one month mark

Slowing down of Ukrainian expansion in Kursk region

Ukrainian control over significant areas in Kursk

Destruction of bridges across the River Sejm by Ukraine

Expectation of Ukraine taking the area south of the River Sejm

Frontline in Ukraine has mostly stabilized except for significant exception

Russian movement of soldiers from the southern sector to Kursk

Russian focus on creating results in one area instead of spreading resources

Russian progress toward the city of Pokhrovsk in Donetsk region

Discussion in Ukraine about the reasons for the situation in Donetsk

Reflections on what's going on in Donetsk

Donetsk as the main axis of the Russian summer offensive

Fighting in Donetsk taking place in open territory

Potential destruction of Pakrovsk city and the time it might take for Russia to take it

Implications of Russia occupying the entire Donetsk region on the war

Long-range air campaigns playing an important role

Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's power infrastructure

Ukrainian air campaign against Russia including new types of drones and cruise missiles

Debate on whether western countries should allow Ukraine to use western weapons for deep strikes into Russia

Ukrainian capability to conduct strikes into Russia and the impact on Russians

Russian shortage of air defense systems and its consequences

Expectation of Ukrainian airstrikes having a bigger impact in Russia over time

Transcripts

In this video, I want to give an overview of the

frontline situation in Ukraine and Russia, I guess.

I will talk about the situation in Kursk, then

about the frontline in Ukraine, and more specifically

about the Donetsk region.

And then I'm also going to talk a bit about the strategic air campaign

that both sides have going on right now.

And I will try to keep it pretty short because I think

when we follow the debate about the war, I think the biggest challenge is actually right now to

keep the big picture for people.

So there are so many stories about separate elements in the war,

and it can be hard to put it all together and

decide what's important and what's less important.

So let's talk about it.

As usual, I'm using maps from deepstatemap.live.

And if we start in the Kursk region, then we're approaching the one month mark

since the Ukrainians launched the incursion.

And in that time, they've taken quite a significant chunk of territory inside Russia.

It has been slowing down over the last week.

The expansion has started to slow down and we are beginning to see a more static situation when we

look at the frontline in the area.

But if we look at the map, then the most significant area under

Ukrainian control is obviously this one here to

the east because it's the biggest area.

But the Ukrainians have also taken an area over here to

the west.

And the interesting thing about this is this area here in between, because it's essentially

walled off with Ukraine to the south.

And then the Ukrainians also control both the east and the west.

And to the north, there is a river called the River Sejm.

And Ukraine has destroyed all the bridges across this river.

The Russians keep up setting new pontoon bridges, but the Ukrainians also keep destroying them.

So I think it's fair to assume that over the coming weeks, then Ukraine

will probably take this whole area south of the same river.

So the Ukrainian expansion in the Kursk region has definitely slowed down since the

first couple of weeks.

But there is still this area that we should probably expect that the Ukrainians

will take in the coming time.

If we move on to the frontline inside Ukraine, then the big picture

is that the frontline has stabilized in most areas

with a very significant exception.

But really in most areas along the frontline, the Russians are

not making significant progress at this time.

And there can be several reasons for this.

Russia has taken soldiers from parts of the frontline, especially in the southern sector in the

Zabodisha region, and they've moved them to Kursk

to try to get the situation there under control.

So that's definitely one factor that is contributing to this.

But another explanation

might also be that Russia has just prioritized to use their resources to create results

in this one area where they have the main effort instead of sort of sprinkling resources

around across many places.

And that would actually be a smart decision because it is one of the weaknesses

that the Russians have had in the war

until now, that they have had a hard time focusing

their resources and that they have just spent a

lot of resources in many places.

But either way,

what we're seeing is that Russia is not making

progress in most places, but that they are in the

Donetsk region, they are making progress and especially toward the city of Pokhrovsk.

If we look at the map, then over the month of August, the Russians have been able to progress

about 20 kilometers toward the city.

We should probably expect that during the month of September,

the Russian forces will reach the city and the battle for Pokhrovsk will begin.

And that is absolutely not good news for the Ukrainians.

And there is now a discussion in Ukraine about

what are the reasons for this, because when the situation is that it has stabilized pretty much

everywhere else in Ukraine on the front line, and they're having a lot of success in the Kursk

region, then of course it jumps in the eyes that

you have this one area where things are not going

well, where things are going in the wrong direction, and that it's also happening at a

pace that it's maybe not quick.

I think that would be a wrong way to describe it, but it is definitely significant.

So there is a discussion about whether the military commanders in this area have made

mistakes, if they don't understand the situation,

if they have not taken the necessary steps to build

trenches and prepare defense lines and those sorts of things.

And there's also been a debate

about whether it was a mistake for the Ukrainians to use so many resources in the Kursk region

instead of putting more resources into trying to stabilize this one front line in Donetsk.

I think it's difficult to have very strong opinions about this, just based on the information

that we have at this point.

So it's possible that mistakes were made and that the situation could

have been better.

But I also think it's a mistake to get caught up in these discussions if you want

to see the big picture.

So what I want to do instead is to offer a few reflections about what's going on in Donetsk.

The first thing I'll say is that this is the main axis of the Russian summer offensive.

And this is where they are concentrating their forces and where they are channeling most of

the available firepower.

So if you're up against that, then you would usually expect to be losing territory.

That is a part of how you conduct defensive operations.

So when you follow the news coverage of what's going on,

then you could get the impression that the situation is very dramatic

and that it's a huge problem that the Ukrainians have not been able to bring the whole

Russian offensive to complete halt in all sectors of

the front line.

But I think that's a misunderstanding

of what defensive operations actually look like.

Like it is not the goal to hold every kilometer of

terrain at all costs, but it is rather the goal

to focus on maximizing the losses for the enemy.

So you make the enemy fight really hard for every

meter of territory, but you also do give away some

territory in that process.

So that's my first point.

Ukraine is conducting defensive operations in

Donetsk and it's not surprising that you are moving backwards when you are defending.

Then we can of course discuss the pace, but the direction

in itself is not problematic really from a military

point of view.

The second point that I will make is that the fighting in Donetsk is right now taking

place in open territory.

It will slow down significantly when the Russians get to the city

limits and then the urban combat will begin and

it's very hard.

So the city of Pakrovsk is probably

going to be absolutely destroyed, but it's going

to take the Russians a long time to take the city.

Pakrovsk is about the same size as Bakhmoud and

it might take them something between six months to

maybe up to a year to just take the city.

That would not be surprising if we look at how these

things have played out in the past.

Then there are other cities as well in the Donetsk region that Russia also still hasn't taken.

So what I'm getting at with this is that there is a lot of work left for the Russian army before they can

declare that it's mission accomplished in Donetsk.

To be honest, I'm not sure it's realistic that they will ever be able to do that and at least

it's not something that's going to happen

anytime soon.

And the last point is that it's important to

keep in mind that when we look at what's

happening in Pakrovsk and we read the alarmist headlines

about it, that even if Russia manages to occupy

the entire Donetsk region, then that does not mean

that they win the war.

It just means that the front line runs somewhere else and it will be a little further west,

but the Ukrainian army will still be there.

They will still be able to fight

and the Russian army will also still be there and

will be able to fight and they're going to continue

fighting in other places because they have more goals than just to take the Donetsk region.

So what I'm getting at is that one, it's not

actually surprising that the Russians are able to make

progress in the area where they have the main effort in this big offensive.

Two, the current pace at this current pace, the Russians still have, they will have several years of fighting

before they take the entirety of the Donetsk region and three, even if they do take all of

Donetsk region, then that still doesn't mean that

they won the war.

So I think it's important that we calm down a bit in all these discussions

about the current Russian push against the city of Pakrovsk.

The last thing I want to mention is that the long-range air campaigns that both

sides are conducting are really playing an important role.

So there has been a lot of talk

about the Russian airstrikes on Ukraine over the last week and especially that they've had

quite a bit of success at hitting Ukrainian

power infrastructure and it's quite possible that the

lack of electricity can become a big problem for

the Ukrainians in a couple of months when it gets

cold when the winter comes.

But I think that perhaps even more interesting to notice and I think

is going a bit under the radar is the Ukrainian

air campaign against Russia.

Ukraine has introduced

new types of drones, they have demonstrated a new cruise missile that they have developed,

and we're seeing that the Ukrainians are really having a lot of success at hitting both Russian

air bases but also Russian oil facilities and it's

basically all of western Russia.

So there is a lot

of talk in the media about whether the western

countries at this point should allow the Ukrainians

to use western weapons for deep strikes into Russia, especially there's a pressure on the

Americans about this.

And I think that would absolutely be something that would make a difference.

So I think it would be a good idea.

But it's interesting that Ukraine is actually developing and using capabilities

to do this themselves and that it is now at a level where

it's going to create significant problems for the

Russians in the long run.

So what we're seeing is

probably a result of a combination of two things.

So on the one hand that the Ukrainians now have

the capability to conduct these strikes into Russia, they've developed the technology, they

have the production lines so they can produce

these drones at scale.

But then on the other hand, it's also a result of the fact that the Russians have a shortage of air defense systems.

So there's been a long period of time where the Ukrainians have had a long campaign where they

have specifically targeted Russian air defense systems.

And we're beginning to see the results of

that, that the Russians are forced to prioritize what targets do they want to protect and what

targets are they going to leave undefended.

And that's interesting because it's a dynamic

that is still developing.

And I think we should expect that these Ukrainian airstrikes will have

a bigger and bigger impact in Russia over time.

Okay, this was supposed to be a brief overview,

so I'm going to stop it here.

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