Netanyahu may be ‘going for a gigantic diversion’ with Lebanon war: Analysis

Summary

In this discussion, Paul Rogers, Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford, analyzes the recent large-scale attacks in Lebanon. He suggests that while the US could potentially halt the conflict, internal politics prevent immediate action. Israel, under Netanyahu, appears to be avoiding a ceasefire, possibly using the conflict as a diversion until the US elections. Rogers highlights the challenges Israel faces in Gaza and the likelihood of air strikes over ground invasions in Lebanon. He also speculates on Hezbollah's resilience and the potential influence of the US elections on the Middle East's future.

Takeaways

• 🇺🇸 The United States is in a position to influence a ceasefire in Lebanon but is hesitant due to internal political reasons.
• 🕊️ Israel is not seeking a ceasefire at the moment, especially before the upcoming elections, and is focused on weakening Hezbollah's morale.
• 🚫 It is unlikely that Israel will attempt to occupy Southern Lebanon due to past experiences and the high cost in terms of troop losses.
• 🔄 The far-right in Israel may desire a re-occupation of Southern Lebanon, but such a move is not supported by the majority or practical considerations.
• 🛑 The 'Dahiya Doctrine' is being applied by Israel, which involves punishing the civilian population to weaken support for insurgents.
• 🔥 The Gaza Strip has been a site of the application of the Dahiya Doctrine, indicating a broader strategy by Israel.
• 🤔 Israel's inability to eliminate Hamas in Gaza suggests that the conflict there is not going as planned for them.
• 💥 Netanyahu might be using the conflict in Lebanon as a diversion tactic until the U.S. elections, hinting at the potential influence of those elections on the region.
• 🌐 The outcome of the U.S. elections could significantly impact the situation in the Middle East, with different policies potentially leading to different outcomes.
• 🔍 Despite recent Israeli successes, Hezbollah is expected to be resilient, possibly due to pre-planning and the ability to operate with minimal central coordination.

Q & A

What is Paul Rogers' view on the United States' ability to influence the situation in Lebanon?

Paul Rogers believes that the United States has the power to call for a halt to the conflict within days if it decides to, but due to internal politics, it is not prepared to do so at the moment.

How does Rogers think the situation in Lebanon has impacted Hezbollah?

Rogers suggests that Hezbollah was not entirely surprised by the events, although the scale may have been a shock. Hezbollah is likely prepared for such scenarios, even if they could not predict specifics.

What is Rogers' analysis of Israel's intentions regarding a ceasefire?

According to Rogers, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire before the next elections and is unlikely to change this stance regardless of the upcoming US presidential elections.

Why is Israel unlikely to occupy Southern Lebanon again, according to Paul Rogers?

Rogers points out that Israel's previous occupation of Southern Lebanon between 1982 and 1990 was costly, with 500 troops lost to raids, leading to their withdrawal. The experience from 2006 also showed significant challenges and losses for Israel, making another occupation unlikely.

What is the Dahr Doctrine as mentioned by Paul Rogers?

The Dahr Doctrine refers to a strategy of punishing the wider community to diminish support for insurgents, which has been applied in various conflicts, including by Israel in the Gaza Strip and historically by other nations.

How does Rogers assess the effectiveness of the war in Gaza from Israel's perspective?

Rogers suggests that the war in Gaza is failing for Israel as they cannot eliminate Hamas, and any agreement that allows Hamas to maintain a presence in Gaza is unacceptable to them.

What does Rogers think might be the fundamental reason behind Netanyahu's actions in Lebanon?

Rogers speculates that Netanyahu's actions could be a diversion tactic until the American elections, as the outcome could significantly influence the situation in the Middle East.

What type of military actions does Rogers expect from Israel in Lebanon?

Rogers anticipates that Israel's actions will primarily involve air strikes, with the possibility of other disruptions, but not a major ground invasion.

How does Rogers describe Hezbollah's preparedness for the current situation?

Rogers believes that Hezbollah is likely to be more resilient than expected, with individual groups or platoons having freedom of action and possibly pre-planned strategies that require minimal communication.

What does Rogers imply about the potential resilience of Hezbollah despite the challenges?

Rogers suggests that Hezbollah's resilience could be higher than anticipated, as they have managed to maintain control despite previous losses and the current situation.

Outlines

00:00

🌎 Middle East Conflict Analysis

In this segment, Paul Rogers, an Emeritus professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford, provides an analysis of recent large-scale attacks in Lebanon. He discusses the United States' potential influence on a ceasefire, Israel's stance under Netanyahu, and the likelihood of a ground invasion. Rogers also touches on the historical context of Israeli-Hezbollah conflicts, the far-right's influence on Israeli politics, and the potential for a diversionary war leading up to the American elections.

05:00

🛡 Hezbollah's Resilience and Strategy

The second paragraph delves into Hezbollah's operational capabilities and strategies. Rogers suggests that despite Israel's military advancements, Hezbollah is likely to maintain resilience, possibly due to pre-planned operations that require minimal communication. He reflects on Israel's past loss of control in Gaza and the potential for Hezbollah to be more resilient than expected. The discussion concludes with Rogers' thoughts on the broader implications of the conflict and the importance of the upcoming American elections for the Middle East.

Keywords

💡Ceasefire

A ceasefire is an agreement to stop fighting, typically between nations or groups in conflict. In the context of the video, it refers to the United States' desire for a halt in hostilities, particularly in the region of Lebanon. The script mentions that the U.S. could potentially call for a ceasefire within days but is hesitant due to internal political reasons, indicating the complexity of international relations and the challenges in achieving peace.

💡Internal US Politics

Internal US politics refers to the domestic political landscape within the United States, including the interplay of various political parties, ideologies, and policies. The script suggests that the U.S.'s reluctance to call for an immediate ceasefire is influenced by these internal dynamics, highlighting how domestic politics can shape a country's foreign policy decisions and impact global events.

💡Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu is a prominent Israeli politician who has served as the Prime Minister of Israel. In the script, his stance against a ceasefire is mentioned, indicating his influence on Israel's military and political strategies. His preference for continued military action over a ceasefire reflects the complex and often contentious nature of peace negotiations in conflict zones.

💡Hesah

Hesah, or Hezbollah, is a Lebanese political party and militant group. The script discusses the group's preparedness for conflict and its resilience, suggesting that despite military pressure, Hezbollah maintains a strong presence and operational capacity. The term is used to illustrate the challenges faced by Israel in its attempts to weaken the group's influence.

💡Doctrine

In the script, 'Doctrine' refers to a set of principles or strategies guiding a group's actions, particularly in military or political contexts. The Dahr El-Bared Doctrine, mentioned in the transcript, is a strategy of punishing a population to weaken support for insurgents. This doctrine is discussed in relation to Israel's tactics, suggesting that the script is analyzing the effectiveness and ethics of such strategies in counterinsurgency warfare.

💡Gaza Strip

The Gaza Strip is a self-governing Palestinian territory bordered by Israel and Egypt. The script references the Gaza Strip in the context of Israeli military strategy and the ongoing conflict with Hamas, a Palestinian militant group. The mention of the Gaza Strip serves to draw parallels between the situation in Lebanon and the broader patterns of conflict in the region.

💡Counterinsurgency

Counterinsurgency refers to the measures taken by a government or military to suppress and control an insurgency, typically involving both military and political strategies. The script discusses the challenges of counterinsurgency in the context of Israel's actions, suggesting that the traditional methods of warfare may not be effective against non-traditional adversaries like Hezbollah.

💡Resilience

Resilience, in the context of the script, refers to the ability of a group or community to withstand or recover quickly from difficulties, such as military attacks. The discussion of Hezbollah's resilience indicates that despite the challenges posed by Israel's military actions, the group is expected to maintain its operational capabilities, reflecting the complexities of asymmetric warfare.

💡Air Strikes

Air strikes are military attacks carried out by aircraft, often targeting specific locations or infrastructure. The script suggests that air strikes may be a primary method of Israel's military strategy in Lebanon, indicating a preference for less invasive tactics that avoid ground incursions. This highlights the evolving nature of warfare and the strategic considerations that influence military decisions.

💡American Elections

The script mentions the American elections as a significant factor that could influence the course of the conflict in Lebanon. The outcome of these elections could potentially change U.S. foreign policy, including its stance on the Middle East conflicts. This underscores the interconnectedness of global politics and the impact of domestic events on international relations.

Highlights

The United States could potentially call for a ceasefire in Lebanon within days but is currently hesitant due to internal politics.

Hezbollah was not entirely surprised by the attacks but the scale was shocking in the short term.

Israel is unlikely to seek a ceasefire before the next elections, reflecting Netanyahu's political stance.

The possibility of a Donald Trump presidency could significantly alter the situation post-January.

Israel's strategy aims to damage Hezbollah's psychology through military actions.

Israel is highly unlikely to attempt long-term occupation of Southern Lebanon due to historical precedents.

The far-right in Israel may desire occupation, but it is not a consensus and is unlikely to happen.

The Dahr Doctrine, named after a district in Beirut, suggests punishing the population to diminish support for insurgents.

The Gaza Strip has seen the Dahr Doctrine in action over the past year.

Israel's war in Gaza is failing as they cannot eliminate Hamas, creating a strategic dilemma.

Netanyahu's war in Lebanon could be a diversion tactic until the American elections.

The outcome of the American elections could have a significant impact on the Middle East.

Israel's military strategy will likely focus on air strikes and short-term probing attacks.

Hezbollah is expected to be resilient, with individual groups having freedom of action and pre-planned strategies.

Israel's loss of control in Gaza a year ago was a shock, indicating potential for unexpected outcomes.

Transcripts

and good news we've been able to fix

sound with Paul Rogers Emeritus

professor of Peace studies at the

University of Bradford uh Paul thank you

very much thanks for your patience we

got it fixed okay tell us your analysis

of the last 48 hours and the attacks

large scale attacks in

Lebanon well look at it from the

different perspectives for the United

States it wants some sort of ceasefire

the United States is in the position to

call this wall a halt within days if it

decided to do so but for various reasons

connected with internal us politics it's

not prepared to do that so in that sense

it is trying to get some sort of easing

of the current tensions and maybe a

cease fire on the hesah side they've

been expecting something like this at

some stage they were never sure and what

has happened I think has been quite a

shock to them in the short term but not

in the longer term as far as Israel is

concern I think it's it's pretty clear

that Netanyahu does not want to cease

fire of any form at the presid time

certainly not before the next elections

of of course we may may well have Donald

Trump in the white house then which will

put a very different complexion on

things come January and I think what

we're seeing now is Israel is trying to

damage the almost the psychology of

holah uh by what they're doing but the

thing one has to remember is that Israel

is highly unlikely to try to occupy

Southern Lebanon um H I think it was H

early on from from a man was saying that

essentially what they want is the

occupation of Southern Lebanon but you

know in

198 to jump in that was the far right

specifically right I asked her what the

far right wants because over the last

year we've seen Benjamin Netanyahu side

with them several

times no you're quite right this the

question more specifically to her about

the the far right but there are elements

within Israel society which probably

extends a bit beyond them who would like

to see s of occupation but that is

hugely different when the Israelis

occupied Southern Lebon between what was

it 82 and 90 that was when hesa was

actually formed as an opposition party

and over those eight years or so the

Israelis lost 500 of their troops uh to

different sorts of raids and essentially

they got out and in 2006 which was the

last major war the Israelis had huge

problems in trying to do even short-term

occupation to get launch sites and they

lost a lot of their key troops so what

one has to remember is whatever these is

it going to do it is highly unlikely to

involve any kind of ground incursion

above a very short probing attack which

means in turns that it's when the tah

Doctrine comes in you actually have to

try and publish um punish The Wider

community and I some ways I didn't I

didn't hear you there What doctrine

sorry the D Doctrine it it basically is

named after the district just south of

Central barut and this is where you

cannot win a war

uh of counterinsurgency if you like then

you have to try and punish the

population so that support for the

insurgents actually diminishes it's not

solely true of Israel other countries

have done it in different circumstances

notably the Russians at the time of the

gry wars but essentially this is would

it be fair to say that Doctrine has been

at play in the Gaza Strip for the last

year absolutely it's been very clear and

in many ways if you look at what some of

the Israelis strategic analysts are

saying they will certainly be open to

this but this in fact sir takes us to

the next point in in a sense the war in

Gaza is failing as far as Israelis are

concerned they cannot actually get rid

of Hamas and any kind of agreement which

allows Hamas any kind of presence in

Gaza um even just to exist there has to

be unacceptable so they are in a major

bind then it may well be that the

fundamental reason why Netanyahu is

going for this phase of a war in Lebanon

is a gigantic diversion at least until

the American elections I think a lot is

being pinned on the results of those

particular elections which does mean a

lot actually hinges on them as far as

the Middle East is

concerned okay when you say the reason

Netanyahu is going for this phase of the

war what is I mean what do you expect

that to actually look like because

you're also said you don't expect to see

a major ground invasion of Lebanon so

what do you think it's going to look

like

I think it'll be much more air strikes

basically there may well be other

disruptions they may be capable of

though doing other disruptions and

certainly what has happened in the last

48 hours makes life a lot more difficult

for hesah its leadership and its

Communications but one suspect that hbar

and Away was always prepared for

something like this even if it could not

be specific and if it was then what

we'll be prepared to do is to give the

individual groups uh the IND idual

platoon almost certainly at low level on

the hesar side freedom of action and

there will be some sort of pre-planning

which may not even require much in the

way of communications they're very

conscious of their ability to do this

but one has to remember that this has

seems to be an extraordinary achievement

for the Israelis but almost a year ago

they were absolutely shocked when they

lost control of Gaza so one has to

always look at it in the round and it

may well be that hesal itself is going

to be more um resilient than we would

expect it could be wrong on that but I

think that's highly likely and Paul

Roger Emeritus professor of Peace

studies at the University of Bradford we

thankful for your time this hour thank

you for joining us thank

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