Hidup Makin Sulit, Kelas Menengah Kian Terjepit
Summary
TLDRThe Indonesian middle class faces financial pressures due to government plans to increase taxes to combat inflation and a potential reduction in purchasing power. The proposed changes to the KRL subsidy scheme, based on the Population Number (NIK), are expected to burden the middle class further. Additionally, discussions around mandatory pension contributions and third-party liability insurance for vehicles add to their financial woes. The middle class, a significant driver of the national economy, is shrinking, with numbers decreasing from 57.33 million in 2019 to 47.85 million in 2024, reflecting a decline in spending power and an increased risk of downward mobility.
Takeaways
- đ The Indonesian government plans to increase taxes to curb inflation, which is causing concern among the middle class.
- đ There are plans to change the subsidy scheme for Jakarta's commuter rail (KRL) based on the population identification number (NIK) starting in 2025.
- đŒ The change in KRL subsidy scheme is expected to burden the middle class as they may have to pay higher tariffs.
- đą The middle class is already facing a decrease in purchasing power, with four consecutive months of deflation from May to August 2024.
- đŹ There is a discussion about mandatory pension programs that could lead to wage cuts for workers, adding financial pressure.
- đ From January 2025, all vehicles must have third-party liability (TPL) insurance, which is expected to be an additional cost for the middle class.
- đĄ The Taperan (TAPERA) policy, which requires contributions from the working class, primarily benefits lower-income groups, leaving the middle class contributing without direct benefits.
- đ The number of middle-class citizens in Indonesia has been decreasing over the past few years, dropping from 57.33 million in 2019 to 47.85 million in 2024.
- đ The lack of job opportunities in the formal sector and the shift of workers to the informal sector post-pandemic are contributing to the decline in the middle class.
- đ° The middle class, which is a significant driver of the national economy, is currently struggling with stagnant wages and increasing expenses.
Q & A
What is the government's plan regarding the subsidy scheme for KRL Jabotabek?
-The government plans to change the subsidy scheme for KRL Jabotabek to be based on the Nomor Induk Kependudukan (NIK) starting in 2025, which is expected to encourage those who can afford to pay higher tariffs.
How does the change in the subsidy scheme for PT KAI affect the budget allocation?
-The budget allocation for PT KAI's PSO subsidy is projected to reach 4.8 trillion in 2025, compared to 2.5 trillion in 2023, with 64% or about 1.6 trillion allocated for KRL subsidies.
What is the potential impact of the new subsidy scheme on the middle class?
-The new subsidy scheme based on NIK is expected to burden the middle class more, as it may lead to increased tariffs for those who can afford it, potentially reducing their purchasing power.
How does the discussion of wage cuts for additional pension programs affect the middle class?
-The middle class may face increased financial pressure due to the potential for wage cuts to fund additional mandatory pension programs, which could further strain their purchasing power.
What is the mandatory third-party liability (TPL) insurance for vehicles, and how does it affect the middle class?
-Starting from January 2025, all vehicles must have TPL insurance, which provides compensation for third parties affected by accidents involving the insured vehicle. This new requirement may add to the financial burden of the middle class.
What is the controversy surrounding the Taperan program and how does it affect the middle class?
-The Taperan program requires contributions from workers (2.5%) and employers (0.5%), but the benefits go to low-income households. The middle class contributes through wage deductions but may not directly benefit, potentially adding to their financial stress.
How has the middle class population in Indonesia been trending in recent years?
-The middle class population in Indonesia has been decreasing, from 57.33 million in 2019 to 48.27 million in 2024, indicating a decline of around 9.48 million people in about 5 years.
What is the role of the middle class in Indonesia's economy?
-The middle class is a significant driver of the Indonesian economy as they are major and fast spenders, contributing significantly to household consumption, which is a primary driver of the economy.
What are the factors contributing to the decline in the middle class population?
-The decline is attributed to factors such as a lack of job opportunities in the formal sector, leading many to switch to the informal sector, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused many new workers to enter the informal sector directly.
How does the government's lack of attention to the middle class potentially threaten Indonesia's economic goals?
-Neglecting the middle class could undermine Indonesia's aspirations for a golden economy by 2045, as this group is crucial for driving economic growth and consumption.
What are the concerns for the middle class in Indonesia regarding their economic stability?
-The middle class in Indonesia is facing concerns about stagnant wages, increasing expenses, and potential future deductions for insurance and pension contributions, which may lead to a decline in their economic stability and overall quality of life.
Outlines
đ Economic Challenges for Indonesia's Middle Class
The Indonesian middle class is facing economic pressures due to planned tax increases, inflation, and changes in government subsidies. The government's plan to change the subsidy scheme for Jakarta's commuter rail (KRL) based on the population identification number (NIK) starting in 2025 is expected to burden the middle class further. The potential rise in KRL fares due to the subsidy scheme change, along with the introduction of compulsory third-party liability (TPL) insurance for vehicles from 2025, will increase the financial strain on the middle class. The middle class, which is a significant driver of the national economy, is also concerned about potential wage cuts for additional pension programs and the impact of these changes on their purchasing power, which has been declining due to deflation over the past four months.
đ Shrinking Middle Class and Its Economic Impact
The Indonesian middle class, a key economic driver, has been shrinking in recent years. According to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the middle class population decreased from 57.33 million in 2019 to 47.85 million in 2024, a drop of 9.48 million people. This decline is concerning as the middle class is a significant consumer group, contributing to household consumption, which is a primary driver of the national economy. The lack of job opportunities in the formal sector and the shift of workers to the informal sector post-pandemic have contributed to this decline. The government's attention to the middle class in policy instruments has been insufficient, which could threaten Indonesia's goal of becoming a developed country by 2045. The middle class is currently grappling with stagnant wages and increasing living costs, leading to a precarious economic situation.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄInflation
đĄSubsidy
đĄMiddle Class
đĄDeflation
đĄCompulsory Pension Program
đĄThird-Party Liability Insurance (TPL)
đĄTapera
đĄEconomic Pressure
đĄSocioeconomic Class
đĄPurchasing Power
đĄNational Identity Card (NIK)
Highlights
Government plans to increase income tax to combat inflation, causing middle-class Indonesians to worry.
Subsidy changes for KRL commuters based on population identification numbers (NIK) are set to be implemented in 2025.
The new subsidy scheme is expected to burden the middle class as they will have to pay higher tariffs.
The 2025 state budget allocation for PT KAI's fuel subsidy is projected to reach 4.8 trillion, up from 2.5 trillion in 2023.
The implementation of a NIK-based subsidy for KRL is predicted to increase the financial pressure on the middle class.
The middle class is concerned about the potential rise in KL tariffs if the NIK-based subsidy is applied.
The middle class's purchasing power is already threatened by four consecutive months of deflation from May to August 2024.
Talks of mandatory additional pension programs and wage cuts for workers are adding to the middle class's financial stress.
The new pension program is not mandatory for all workers but only for those with a certain salary threshold.
The middle class is already burdened with existing contributions such as BPJS employment and health insurance.
The number of middle-class citizens has been decreasing, dropping from 57.33 million in 2019 to 47.85 million in 2024.
The middle class is a significant driver of the national economy due to their spending habits.
The lack of job opportunities in the formal sector is cited as a reason for the decline in the middle class.
The middle class, traditionally relied upon to stimulate the national economy, is now struggling with stagnant wages and increased expenses.
The government's lack of attention to the middle class could threaten Indonesia's goal of becoming a developed nation by 2045.
The middle class in Indonesia is facing pressure from stagnant wages and is concerned about future financial burdens such as mandatory vehicle insurance.
Transcripts
rencana poetokan penghasilan kenaik
kenakan pajak hingga inflasi harga
barang membuat kelas menengah di
Indonesia akhir-akhir ini menjadi cemas
belum lagi wacana subsidi KRL communter
laine yang akan diubah berbasis nomor
induk kependudukan atau Nik membuat
masyarakat kelas menengah semakin
terengah-engah selengkapnya akan kami
ulas untuk anda dalam hidup makin sulit
kelas menengah Kian
terjepit kita lihat di slide yang
pertama pemerintah berencana mengubah
skema subsidi tarif KRL Jabotabek nah
penyaluran subsidi ini akan berbasiskan
nomor induk kependudukan atau Nik pada
tahun
2025 dalam kalkulasi pemerintah
perubahan skema ini akan mendorong warga
yang mampu untukembayar tarif lebih
mahal dalam RAPBN tahun 2025 subsidi PSO
untuk PT KAI dianggarkan mencapai 4,8
triliun sementara pada tahun 2023 lalu
alokasi PS untuk PT KAI mencapai Rp2,5
triliun yang mana 64%-nya atau sekitar
1,6 triliun ini disalurkan untuk subsidi
KRL indef menilai rencana pemerintah
untuk mengubah skema pemberian subsidi
untuk KRL jabr tabek menjadi berbasis
Nik Mulai tahun depan ini akan semakin
membebani kelas menengah direktur
pengembangan big data indf Eko Listianto
mengatakan meski belum diumumkan secara
resmi tarif KL pasti akan naik jika
subsidi berbasis Nik diterapkan
akibatnya apa daya beli masyarakat kelas
menengah ini akan semakin
tertekan Ya pemirsa di tengah penurunan
daya beli yang tercermin dari deflasi 4
bulan berturut-turut dari Mei hingga
Agustus 2024 sebelum mencuat adanya
wacana pengubahan skema subsidi KRL
beban masyarakat terutama kelas menengah
ini sudah terancam bertambah gara-gara
ada wacana pemotongan gaji pekerja untuk
program pensiun tambahan yang bersifat
wajib meskipun memang aturannya ini
masih digodok tetapi ini tentu akan
menambah pengeluaran kepala eksekutif
pengawas perasuransian penjaminan dan
dana pensiun OJK Ogi prastoiono
mengatakan pemotongan gaji itu akan
diatur dalam peraturan pemerintah Ia
menyebut program pensiun baru itu tidak
akan diwajibkan untuk semua pekerja
melainkan hanya untuk pemilik gaji
dengan jumlah tertentu artinya
masyarakat kelas menengah yang akan
semakin terhimpit padahal saat ini saja
beban kelompok ekonomi berjuluk kaum
mendang-mending ini sudah cukup besar
sehingga dipastikan daya beli akan
semakin melemah sehingga Uang belanja
untuk konsumsi akan semakin
berkurang tidak hanya itu nasib pekerja
kelas menengah bakal semakin merana
karena bertambahnya potongan gaji
setelah munculnya potongan gaji untuk
iuran tapera mereda kini pekerja kelas
menengah harus menelan pil pahit dengan
adanya rencana asuransi wajib kendaraan
bermotor nantinya seluruh mobil dan
motor ini wajib ikut asuransi third
party liability atau TPL mulai Januari
2025 TPL merupakan produk asuransi yang
memberikan ganti rugi terhadap pihak
ketiga yang secara langsung disebabkan
oleh kendaraan bermotor yang
dipertanggungkan sebagai akibat risiko
yang dijamin di dalam polis kepala
u pengawas perasuransian penjamin dan
dana pensiun OJK Ogi prastomion
mengatakan bahwa saat ini asuransi
kendaraan bersifat sukarela akan tetapi
kalau merujuk pada undang-undang ppsk
diatur bahwa asuransi kendaraan ini
dapat menjadi wajib bagi seluruh pemilik
mobil dan motor nah selain asuransi
kendaraan bermotor yang menjadi beban
bagi masyarakat kes menengah sebelumnya
juga ada yang namanya tapera kita akan
lihat di slide
berikutnya kontroversi kebijakan tapera
kan fenomena gunung S tentang pengabaian
kelas menengah dalam kebijakan publik
skema tapera ini mengharuskan adanya
kontribusi dari kelas pekerja melalui
potongan penghasilan sebesar
2,5% dan dari pemberi kerja sebesar
0,5% meski demikian penerima manfaat
pembiayaan Perumahan dari tapera adalah
masyarakat yang tergolong masyarakat
berpenghasilan rendah atau mbr sementara
mereka yang tidak tergolong mbr ini
menjadi penabung mulia yang akan
mendapatkan pemupukan hasil simpanan
sampai pensiun atau terkena PHK nah
dalam konteks tapera kelas non mbr
inilah yang membantu kelas mbr untuk
mendapatkan Perumahan layak huni
terlepas dari kondisi kontekstual yang
dimiliki masing-masing kelas nonmbr
Apakah sudah memiliki rumah atau belum
Nah dengan adanya tapera lagi-lagi kaum
kelas menengah hanya bisa gigit jari
karena ketika gaji mereka dipotong untuk
keperluan tapera tetapi belum tentu
mereka dapat merasakan nya pungutan
tapera tentu saja akan menambah sederet
pungutan yang sudah ada mulai dari BPJS
ketenag kerjaan dan BPJS
Kesehatan kalau kita lihat di sini
jumlah kelas menengah terus menurun
dalam beberapa tahun terakhir padahal
kelas menengah menjadi salah satu ujung
tombak penggerak ekonomi nasional
merujuk pada data BPS tahun
2019 jumlah masyarakat kelas menengah
ini mencapai 57 ,33 juta orang kemudian
turun menjadi 53,83 juta di tahun 2021
selanjutnya jumlah masyarakat kelas
menengah juga tercatat kembali menurun
di Tahun 2022 bahkan sudah di bawah R50
juta yaitu
49,51 juta dan kemudian turun lagi di
tahun 2023
48,27 juta di tahun 2024 ada sekitar
47,85 juta orang artinya dalam sekitar 5
tahun ini ada sebanyak 9,48 juta warga
kelas menengah rentan ini turun kasta ke
kelas menengah rentan hingga kelompok
rentan miskin PLT kepala BPS Amalia
adininggar Wid Santi menyampaikan bahwa
kelas menengah ini menjadi pendorong
terbesar perekonomian Indonesia lantaran
kelompok tersebut ini adalah kelompok
pembelanja besar dan pembelanja cepat
sehingga bisa mendorong konsumsi rumah
tangga pasalnya konsumsi rumah tangga
menjadi dorongan utama m ekonomian dalam
negeri sementara itu dosen sbmitb
Muhammad yorga Permana menilai kurangnya
lapangan kerja di sektor formal menjadi
penyebab menurunnya jumlah kelas
menengah ia mengatakan banyak pekerja di
sektor formal yang beralih ke sektor
informal terutama pasc pandemi
covid-19 kemudian banyak juga angkatan
kerja baru yang langsung masuk ke sektor
informal karena minimnya pekerjaan di
sektor formal padahal sektor informal
cenderung tidak mendapatkan pendapatan
yang memadai dan juga tidak memiliki
jaminan sosial pemirsa masyarakat kelas
menengah selama ini kerap diandalkan
sebagai penggerak ekonomi nasional namun
kelompok ini justru masih hidup
pas-pasan dari hari ke hari boro-boro
mendapatkan bantuan kondisi masyarakat
kelas menengah semakin megap-megap
karena pengeluaran semakin membengkat
karena banyaknya wacana aturan baru ini
itu terkait pemotongan gaji untuk
keperluan iuran yang akan berlaku
beberapa tahun kemudian seperti tapera
bahkan asuransi kendan bermotor apalagi
saat ini kelas menengah di Indonesia
Tengah mengalami tekanan daya beli dan
berhadapan dengan gaji yang stagnan
menyandang status yang tanggung alias
tidak miskin tetapi sulit kaya warga
kelas menengah di Indonesia selama ini
masih kurang diperhatikan pemerintah
dalam berbagai instrumen kebijakan nah
kurangnya perhatian terhadap kelas
menengah ini bisa menjadi ancaman untuk
mimpi Indonesia emas tahun 2045 malah
justru di hawatirkan Indonesia cemas
nasib jadi kelas menengah di Indonesia
makan tabungan terlupakan dan penuh
kekhawatiran
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