🏆 Live Q&A: Why Winners Take Most 💰
Summary
TLDRThe video transcript discusses the impact of Bitcoin's all-time high on investment cycles, emphasizing the 'Winner Takes Most' principle. It highlights the role of ETFs in driving Bitcoin's price, the supply crunch, and the potential for a bullish market. The speaker shares insights on trading strategies, the importance of mindset, and the potential of AI and DeFi in the crypto market. They also address concerns about the US government's potential use of Tether and the implications of an inverted yield curve, suggesting that traditional financial indicators may not apply in the current economic environment.
Takeaways
- 📈 The speaker predicts a significant increase in Bitcoin's price due to a supply crunch and constant demand from ETFs.
- 🚀 Bitcoin ETFs have already amassed substantial assets in a short period, indicating strong institutional interest.
- 🔄 The speaker dismisses the left-translated cycle theory, arguing that the current market dynamics are different due to ETFs and reduced supply.
- 💰 The speaker emphasizes the importance of following the money flow and on-chain data rather than chart patterns or conspiracy theories.
- 🏦 The speaker suggests that the ETFs are unlikely to control more than 50% of Bitcoin, given the long-term holders and miners' significant share.
- 📊 The speaker discusses the concept of 'Winner Takes Most' in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the dominance of leading platforms.
- 🤔 The speaker questions the sustainability of Grayscale's high fees, attributing them to financial pressures faced by the company.
- 🔄 The speaker advises against using leveraged ETFs like TSL due to their volatility and the challenges they pose for long-term investment.
- 🔮 The speaker shares a personal anecdote about transitioning from day trading to swing trading, emphasizing the benefits of longer time frames.
- 📊 The speaker discusses the inverted yield curve and its potential implications for the economy, offering a unique perspective on the situation.
Q & A
What is the main theme of the Q&A session?
-The main theme is the concept of 'The Winner Takes Most' and its application to investments, particularly in the context of Bitcoin and the current market dynamics.
How does the speaker view the Bitcoin supply crunch?
-The speaker believes the supply crunch is already here, with Bitcoin facing a significant reduction in new supply while demand from ETFs and other sources is increasing.
What is the speaker's forecast for the Bitcoin price one year from now based on current ETF inflows?
-If the current inflow of $500 million a day continues, the speaker forecasts that the Bitcoin price could reach $691,000 a year from now.
What is the speaker's stance on the possibility of a left-translated cycle for Bitcoin?
-The speaker dismisses the left-translated cycle theory, arguing that the current market dynamics, driven by ETFs and money flow, are different from past cycles.
How does the speaker address concerns about ETFs potentially controlling the Bitcoin market?
-The speaker believes it is nearly impossible for ETFs to gain control over 50% of Bitcoin due to the significant portion held by long-term holders and the decentralized nature of Bitcoin mining.
What is the speaker's opinion on the future of Bitcoin ETFs compared to gold ETFs?
-The speaker suggests that Bitcoin ETFs could surpass gold ETFs in assets under management due to the scarcity of Bitcoin and the rapid growth in demand.
How does the speaker view the role of education in the current Bitcoin cycle?
-The speaker emphasizes that increased education about Bitcoin cycles is leading to more people understanding and front-running the market, which is a significant factor in the current cycle.
What is the speaker's advice for investors considering a shift from day trading to swing trading?
-The speaker recommends focusing on higher time frames, finding a good rhythm, and ensuring a positive mindset, as these factors contribute to successful swing trading.
What is the speaker's perspective on the inverted yield curve and its implications for the economy?
-The speaker suggests that the inverted yield curve may not be a reliable indicator of a coming recession due to the unprecedented zero interest rate policy environment and other unique factors.
How does the speaker view the current state of the tech industry and its relation to the economy?
-The speaker believes that the tech industry may already be in a recession, as evidenced by layoffs and reduced hiring, which could be a sign of broader economic challenges.
Outlines
📈 Bitcoin Supply Crunch and ETF Impact
The speaker discusses the Bitcoin supply crunch and its implications on the investment cycle. They mention the significant inflow of money into Bitcoin ETFs, leading to a constant bid and a potential increase in Bitcoin's price. The speaker also addresses the possibility of a left translated cycle and the role of ETFs in accelerating the market cycle.
🔍 TA Experts and the Left Translated Cycle
The speaker critiques the left translated cycle theory, which suggests that market cycles are happening earlier and faster. They argue that the theory overlooks the increasing adoption of Bitcoin and the significant money flow into the market. The speaker emphasizes the importance of following the money and onchain data rather than chart lines and conspiracy theories.
🚀 Bitcoin ETFs and Market Control
The speaker addresses concerns about Bitcoin ETFs potentially controlling the market and undermining Satoshi's vision of decentralization. They explain the distribution of Bitcoin holdings, highlighting that long-term holders and miners are unlikely to sell their Bitcoin to ETFs, making it improbable for ETFs to gain more than 50% control.
📊 Winner Takes Most in Crypto
The speaker discusses the concept of 'Winner Takes Most' in the context of cryptocurrency, emphasizing the importance of identifying and investing in dominant players within the market. They compare the market share and volume of different DeFi platforms and suggest that some older technologies may become obsolete as the industry evolves.
💰 Grayscale Fees and GBTC
The speaker speculates on why Grayscale might not lower their fees, suggesting that financial pressures due to Genesis' halted withdrawals and debt issues could be a factor. They also discuss the potential impact of GBTC's depletion and the shift of investors to other assets.
🔄 Transitioning from Day Trading to Swing Trading
The speaker shares personal experiences with day trading and the transition to swing trading. They highlight the benefits of longer time frames, such as reduced stress and better win ratios, and emphasize the importance of finding the right trading rhythm and mindset.
📊 Yield Curve Inversion and Market Implications
The speaker discusses the inverted yield curve and its traditional interpretation as a predictor of recession. They propose a unique perspective, suggesting that the transition from a zero interest rate policy to higher rates may cause market uncertainty and that the current economic growth may not be reflective of the actual economic health.
🐠 Adopting a New Marine Friend and Upcoming Events
The speaker announces the adoption of a marine creature named Margarito, who has lost a flipper but continues to thrive. They also mention an upcoming DCA live event on Ivan's channel and encourage followers to stay updated through social media.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Winner Takes Most
💡Bitcoin ETFs
💡Supply Crunch
💡Bull Run
💡Market Cycle
💡Decentralization
💡Onchain Data
💡Money Flow
💡Left-Translated Cycle
💡Education
Highlights
The Winner Takes Most concept is applied to investments, suggesting that the leading asset in a category will dominate the market.
Bitcoin is facing a supply crunch, with ETFs contributing to a constant bid, potentially leading to a significant price increase.
The speaker predicts that if the current ETF buying trend continues, Bitcoin could reach $691,000 within a year.
The speaker discusses the possibility of a left-translated cycle, suggesting that events may occur earlier and faster than in previous cycles.
Bitcoin ETFs have already reached $50 billion in assets under management in 40 trading days,远超黄金ETF的发展速度。
The speaker believes that the constant bid from ETFs and the scarcity of Bitcoin may prevent a bear market in the future.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of following the money flow and onchain data rather than chart lines or conspiracy theories.
The speaker addresses concerns about ETFs potentially controlling the Bitcoin market, arguing that it is unlikely due to long-term holders and miners.
The speaker discusses the potential for Bitcoin to be mined using excess capacity on smart devices in the future.
The speaker advises on cryptocurrency investment strategies, suggesting focusing on categories like DEXs and AI, and picking winners within those categories.
The speaker explains why Grayscale might not lower their fees, suggesting it could be due to financial pressures and debt issues within the company.
The speaker discusses the risks and challenges of using leveraged ETFs like TSL for exposure to Tesla, highlighting issues with fees, liquidity, and trading costs.
The speaker addresses the possibility of the US government using Tether as a digital dollar proxy, dismissing it as unlikely due to the potential impact on US credibility.
The speaker shares personal experiences with day trading, emphasizing the stress and suggesting a shift to swing trading for better results and less stress.
The speaker provides advice for a young investor looking to reach seven figures, recommending focusing on crypto and using the right tools and time frames.
The speaker discusses the inverted yield curve, offering a unique perspective on why it may not necessarily indicate an upcoming recession.
The speaker mentions the AI Revolution and its impact on the tech industry, suggesting that a recession in tech may already be underway.
The speaker introduces a new adopted baby, Margarito, who has adapted to living without a front flipper, showcasing resilience and adaptability.
Transcripts
hello everybody happy Sunday here we are
big big Q&A um you can summarize
everything we're going to talk about
today in terms of The Winner Takes most
and how it applies to our investments so
thank you all for coming thank you as
well to the mods in the chat and
everybody for being here in fact let me
pop out the chat too I see Mr hammer
thank you so much SAR and cybert and
everybody else cybert that's a cool name
so let's jump in as usual no fill no
shill no waste of time and of the course
this is a disclaimer this is
entertainment never Financial advice and
all the questions come from patreon and
what's really interesting is every week
they all kind of amalgamate around a
common theme so we'll talk about that as
well so first question from Rwanda not
Rwanda we broke the old Bitcoin alltime
High very early how does this affect
your forecast for the cycle High
duration of Bull Run and potency of the
next bare Market
cycle this is a great question and I've
been thinking about this for a long time
in fact Jamie Coots and I were on he was
on my channel last year we expected
maybe December time frame 2024 there be
a supply crunch well I can tell you the
supply crunch is already here we'll get
into that a little bit later as well but
BAS basically I did cover some of this
yesterday and these numbers are crazy
but literally the other the other lesson
today is not just Winner Takes most but
it's all about the ETF that's it it's a
constant bid coming into Bitcoin and
Bitcoin is now facing a supply crunch
but here we go quick recap of
yesterday's sheet of the day we are
doing over 40 trading days $52 million
in average a day going into nine ETFs
that's half a billion dollars a day
these are not the only buyers of Bitcoin
around the planet if this continues all
right given the existing multiplier for
the
existing duration of time that the ETFs
were in place for 40 trading days if it
continues the price will go to $691,000
a year from now again if we continue to
get half a billion a day this thing's
going to run out and in fact the
multiplier will double after the
having and this even you know people
always say but won't people sell as the
price goes up yes they will but the
thing is the money coming in will exceed
that because the money is chasing far
too few Bitcoin there's also a lot of
long-term holders which I talk about too
as well if we just assume a quarter of
the money comes in that'll take take the
price to
$225,000 one year from now another view
of this is this Bitcoin Target one year
after having if history repeats ignoring
the first cycle we get to
$315,000 by April
2025 and I always like to find
Confluence and a number of different
models here we are if we take these two
combined and you go between the actual
ETF constant bid that's coming in with
history repeating one year after having
that'll take us to approximately
somewhere between the 25% and 50 and 50%
and of course the $315,000 target so
either way way it's going to be a very
Bonker cycle and yes as well I've been
talking about how everything is
happening earlier and faster than ever
before and we're going to break this
down in this question next question
which Dov tailes directly into it okay
so thank you Rwanda part two of the
answer is coming right here uh this is
from Mike H some people are calling for
a left translated cycle which would put
the peak sometime in 2024 what do you
think think of this thesis and the odds
of it playing
out I actually forgot one piece for
Rwanda as
well if this Bitcoin ETF is like the
gold ETF remember it took gold 20 years
to get to 90 billion in assets under
management these nine new ETFs have 50
billion already in 40 trading days this
is way bigger than gold ever was but
also Bitcoin is way scarcer so we may
never have a bare Market again I always
said there's a 15 to 20% chance of that
happening so I just want to reiterate
that again there's a constant bid coming
in there are OTC desks calling up miners
directly begging them for Bitcoin right
now begging them you know it's like the
uh the Dave Chappelle meme you got any
of that whatever cheap stuff left it's
exactly what's going on right now the
supply crunch is here and it's a good
time so Mike H1 again left translated
cycle so the people calling it a left
translate left translated cycle are the
TA experts and this is how they do that
they draw lots of lines on a chart and
they come up with the
theory now my theory is different and
has been from the beginning and I've
always said follow the money watch the
money flow watch the onchain data cuz
all the answers are there not with lines
on a chart and not with conspiracy
theories so let's break it down my view
not anybody else's regarding this whole
left translated cycle I think it's BS um
so basically what it does it means
everything is happening earlier and
faster which is true yes but it's
because of the ETFs everybody and the
Assumption as well that there is the
predictable B cycle is flawed because
this time time is different we are going
into less
Supply far less liquid supply for the
first time ever and far more money for
the first time ever and we're going to
go from 900 Bitcoin issue a day to 450
and there are sovereigns buying 10,000
Bitcoin a
day the ETFs are absorbing 10,000
Bitcoins a
day okay retail the smart retail is not
selling so just put all this pieces
together in your head now the other
stuff that I noticed as
well the cycle is a function of money
flow I'll repeat that one more time it's
also a function of Education okay so the
difference between this cycle and
previous Cycles as more people know
about the having last cycle people kind
of knew about it but didn't actually
count down the days and everything else
like they do now like I do every single
day almost and the cycle before that
nobody had a clue right now there's so
much more education on what the Cycles
actually mean so what happens is people
front run it so that's a big part of it
too um also the left translated Cycle
Theory overlooks increasing
adoption again there's much more people
in Bitcoin right now than there was
before and also it's now a mature asset
class so earlier and higher been saying
for the last 15 months yes it's here but
the driver is money flow and the driver
could be a constant bid for the next
eight years if it's anything like gold
we already know it's harder than gold
and it's gone higher than gold has it's
nearly at the size of gold it'll
probably be assets under management be
90 billion I'd say within 6 weeks at
this rate six more weeks it took gold 20
years to get to this level and the
people who own the old shiny rocks
they're they're selling their gold ETF
and they're buying the Bitcoin ETF okay
so that is my take and I tend to be I'm
I like the black sheep PS the black
color I I don't follow the clock I Blaze
my own trail okay so uh a quick reminder
all of this is driven by the ETFs
period the money coming in is driving
Bitcoin earlier higher because bitcoin's
never seen so much money hit in such a
short window of time of 40 trading days
all right so I want that to be very
clear to everybody if you want to follow
people that do this fair enough but
that's not what it's about um next which
is kind of related too from
vanill we are bullish with the
introduction of ETFs and all money
coming in but if ETFs buy up more than
50% of Bitcoin and they control and
regulate the whole Market would the
whole point of Satoshi not being
defeated decentralization out the window
so first of all I love the way
everybody's thinking you all have the
right paranoid mindset and as I say as
well for years only the paranoid would
survive uh Andy Grove former CEO of uh
Intel I read his book and that always
stuck with me it amazing always be
paranoid these questions are fantastic
but let's break down uh to exactly what
we're talking about here I shared this a
few weeks ago this is my view of who
holds all the Bitcoin so it's about
50.8% individuals most of those are
long-term hodlers many of those have
actually lost their keys so that'll
never come into existence then you have
the miners they hold about 3 .6% 6% is
yet to be mind 23.8% has lost and
Satoshi 5% has lost there uh governments
own 2.7% the funds in ETFs only have
3.5% right now and other businesses both
public and private own
4.1% that's the makeup so from where we
are today for the ETFs to get over
50% is a massive struggle because they
got to pry a truckload of Bitcoin from
cold dead hands lost Keys Etc it'll be
extremely difficult if not impossible to
ever get to 50% of Bitcoin actually I'll
say it here it's impossible for them to
do that in addition let's take into
account the long-term holders as well
the debate always exists you know what
what are these people going to do well
many of the long-term holders that are
in since 10 bucks 100 bucks $3,000
they're waiting for a million dollars
nothing nothing will make them sell and
when it gets to a million dollars you
know what they're going to do they're
going to borrow against it it's kind of
what the wealthy people do they borrow
against their stock they don't sell
their stock they don't sell that City
Block in Manhattan I think a sailor
always likes to say as well if you look
at the hotle waves here I drew a red
line across this chart from look to
bitcoin and you can see nearly 60% is
held by people that hold Bitcoin for
more than two or three years I can't
remember the exact color I think it's 3
years plus yeah 3 years plus is held by
nearly 60% of the people it will be
impossible for the ETFs to get their
hands on this some may turn in their
keys and move to an ETF for security
reasons or whatever else but most will
not especially the ogs who don't even
like the thought of Black Rock touching
their Bitcoin in fact many of them are
quite upset about it they don't trust
Larry fster Etc but anyway so from that
perspective I am not concerned at all
impossible there's another example as
well it's kind of not touched on here
but you have to remember as well that
Bitcoin is mined and there's a massive
amount of decentralization amongst the
miners they are the people that control
the network at the end of the day and
there are nation states mining Bitcoin
there are flare gas installations mining
Bitcoin for nation states there are
villages in the Congo mining Bitcoin and
making chocolate and all sorts of stuff
and then there's volcano mining
happening so when you when you just hear
about the public miners that's a spit in
the bucket as to what's going on and
soon there will be a time when people
will be able to mine Bitcoin using
excess capacity on their smart devices
or chips in their cars or whatever else
and that will be a very special time
indeed that's all coming the next four
years will be a very special time so
hope that answers your question next is
from nect
torine just joined patreon probably
years too late but no sooner did I do
that he sent out a message which I call
Trade alert about Sal chat which I got
into and I paid my patreon for the next
5 years well done so the question I hold
Rune and has been idle for ages although
it's just started a climb you say let
lay your traps but also say back the
fastest horse stay with run or swap for
render interesting question
so let's break it down let's look at the
uh first of all the chat chart this is
where the Trad art came out and chat has
been on fire um there was a lot of good
press as well that came out uh we'll be
talking more about those guys probably
in the near future but well done on chat
um now Rune let's look at the eight yarn
Rune because it is now at level three
which is not bad that means it's no
longer a zombie so we definitely do not
like things under level one won 15
months into a bull market run had a very
nice Spike as you can see there and you
can see the history of where it's come
from will get back to alltime highs I
don't know but let's look at some
fundamentals what's happening out there
and this is the beginning of what I talk
about Winner Takes most we'll touch on
this a few times today uh let's look at
Dex volumes right now salana is number
one run is number five okay Sol Dex
volume is now nearly six times higher
than Thor chain Rune and jup Jupiter
alone does more than 2x what Rune does
and it's brand new so as I've always
said before as well and I know people
don't like to hear this but the old
stuff is going away now unlike unlike
other Industries as an investor you have
to understand that sometimes first mover
Advantage gets the most but in crypto
because the technology advancements are
so rapid the technology from 4 years ago
is now becoming obsolete very quickly to
better cheaper faster black holes it's
been my thesis now all along you've
heard me till I'm blue in the face so
let's talk about this uh a little chart
remember Winner Takes most stay with the
winners look at the Mark market
dominance by Major players with the best
product Market fit look at the
advantages of the platforms the
advantages of the ecosystems the
advantages of the network effect Etc and
this will highlight the dominant players
who are going to win over the next year
and a half two years when everything
radically changes now I put together a
very crude little model because
sometimes people the penny will drop
when they see the actual numbers so
literally shout out to Mark andreon I
heard him say this in at a presentation
decades ago and it stuck with me this is
why I always say Winner Takes most I
think he said Winner Takes all or
something but anyway I say winter takes
most because they don't take it all but
over time the number one player in a
space will make 90% of the profits that
may not mean 90% of the revenue may only
be 50% of the revenue but 90% of the
profits okay the number two player will
get 10% and the rest will fight over
nothing and not be able to make a profit
this works for any
industry okay any industry you look at
Google for search look at Android for
operating systems uh you got Amazon for
online online e-commerce it's always the
same and crypto is going to be no
different now back to your question so
you flip Ru
into what was the the asset you're
considering render I think render I did
a should I buy a year
ago it's embarrassing how sound back my
numbers were uh people were making fun
of me I think we've we forx my bull
market Target already but anyway it
doesn't matter I'm still holding my
render and it has gone up a lot but what
I like to do is stick within categories
I like to pick winners in each category
that I know will do very well in the
bull market the big ones for me are
dexes and AI okay that's kind of my
crypto play not dabble in a little bit
of other stuff but that's kind of where
the majority of the play is and you can
see here this is from the crypto
compendium this is a list of all the
players we have a massive system that
brings in all the data from over 45
different apis and real time so we can
find out exactly what's going on you can
see here though Unis swap is number one
on the Dex list and this also includes
Dex aggregators like one inch all right
Unis swap is number one market cap 8 and
half billion run is number two market
cap 3 billion dollar look down the line
at Jupiter a billion dollars and it's
only just begun so from this perspective
considering the actual
volume okay going back to Brass tax and
this is how I invest I do relative
valuation assessments and I buy what's
cheap or what's going to take over the
world and you see here Jupiter does
twice the volume that thorchain does but
thorchain has three times the market
cap and you get tremendous rewards from
using Jupiter as well so I do believe
Jupiter will be one of the players that
takes most in the future we'll see if
I'm right uh so that's what I would do
because you like Rune you like the dexes
maybe think about flipping but uh when
the tide turns as well in the chart I
hope that helps you next question is
from just someone why doesn't grayscale
lower their fees ah interesting question
get this get this a lot a lot of people
are perplex like every is like 20 basis
points 25 basis points slash fees for
the first 10 billion
Etc this is the story I believe I could
be wrong but grce scale under dcg's
ownership faces tons of financial
concerns uh because of Genesis halted
withdrawals and they have tons of debt
issues dcg aims to alleviate the
financial pressure by selling the gbtc
stuff at a high fee so they can have
money coming in so they can repay
creditors they can also repay interest
on debt um and may maybe a whole bunch
of other stuff we don't even know about
what's happening behind the curtain
there's also a lot of weird Financial
interplay between great scale dcg and
Genesis and that shows you why we need
to get much better of scrutinizing how
these players operate and soon I hope
all the bad players will be flushed from
the system and at the current rate of
depletion of
gbtc remember all the people in gbtc as
well they were speculators some people
had it in retirement accounts but at
least half speculators and they're all
leaving right now they're cashing out
and they're moving to something else
they're not moving into another Bitcoin
ETF they're probably buying an altcoin
or buying some Technology stock or
something else they're speculators and
people forget that people think the
money is leaving gbtc and going direct
directly to Fidelity or Black Rock
that's not what's happening at all about
40% maybe is the other 50 to 60% is
going elsewhere so remember that and I
do believe over time gbtc will just
continue to shrink or they sell
themselves to somebody else now speaking
of winner take most again this is just a
quick little chart from the financial
times and you can see here winner Can
you spot the winner anybody that's that
blood red line going up to the right I
share as Bitcoin trust they will be the
dominant player they are peeling away
into the distance Fidelity number two
and then you have other other names that
just they just have crumbs
and this will soon correspond to this
okay Winner Takes most it's just what
happens it's the way of the world
everybody and you got to get used to it
as well and the reason I stressed this
today is because a lot of people their
strategy is hope they have poop coin
number 20 in a category and they think
it's going to do what poop what the
winning coin not what the winning coin
is going to do is it doesn't happen that
way everybody Winner Takes most okay I
hope I hammered that home enough today
next
question this is from Eureka and mind
beats two people if you have cash in a
retirement account that only allows you
to buy ETFs would you consider TSL for
more exposure to Tesla and would you
recommend any ETF that has a high Tesla
allocation percentage or just invest
elsewhere so I did look at TSL it is
called Rex first of all when you look at
these leverage ETF there's a couple of
things to be aware of first of all they
do have fees the expense ratio is
1.05% not as high as the gray scale 1.5%
but there's other stuff that happens too
which cause me problems first of all uh
leverage ETFs like
TSL they achieve their objectives on a
daily basis so the price doesn't exactly
track the stock and you know Tesla can
be very volatile so that's that's a big
issue right there and they also can lose
grip with the stock price over long
longer periods of time due to effects of
compounding you know having that lag on
a daily basis also the fees um in
addition liquidity can also be a
challenge like there's a thing called
Oso there are many times that I try to
buy it I can't I can't buy it there's no
liquidity for the the size of buys that
I'm trying to make there's no liquidity
so if you're moving large amounts of
money sometimes you can have problems
with these things too also there's a
very wide bit ass spread and potentially
higher trading cost remember if the bid
ass spread is one and a half 2% it can
take a long time to get that back
combine that with the fees and other
things so just bear that in mind now
let's talk about how it can cut both
ways too what I did was I overlaid a
couple of things in the chart this is
the Tesla chart and it's going back a
year and it's down 3% so over the year
it has not done well at all but we did
go to 300 which was amazing from 106
but that's the nature of the volatile
Beast it is a volatile beast and it's
been hammered left right and Center by
mainstream
media the
BBC the BBC said Tesla caused the fire
in the Berlin
Factory I
mean when the world knows it was an
arson attack Tesla did not cause the
fire but that's everybody's coming after
Tesla cuz they're threatening everybody
and everything okay
so getting back to these charts the
other two charts I have is I have got
the T TSL and teal there and I have the
pair chart of TSL divided by Tesla
that's the yellow line and you can see
here it cuts both ways so if you did if
you got into Tesla say back
in say November 2023 6 months ago
October October say uh you would have
lost a lot more in the TSL so what that
basically means is make sure you buy it
at bottoms otherwise you get double
double the hit double the losses so cut
that's what I mean by Cuts both ways um
so but for you if we are at the bottom
right now so we've been hit with a lot
of
fud uh the Berlin Factory is going to be
closed to I think March 17th another
week because there's no electricity not
just for that factory but for a big part
of that whole area um that's going to
impact q1 results no fanza buts but
that's already probably factored in so
the people selling now it's probably too
late to sell the idea was to be able to
anticipate an arson attack and q1's also
bad anyway but the world is begin to
wake up too to all the goodness that's
coming even Normie analysts that never
lik Tesla before they say well you know
we're looking at bot valuations and um I
Heard Tesla has a bot and they've got
some AI stuff and everything else it is
the biggest AI company on the planet so
it will pop I just can't say when but
it's been hit with every single storm
that you could imagine but the results
will speak for themselves very soon so I
hope that helps uh next question is from
straight jacket is it possible the US
government could be using tether as a
digital dollar cbdc proxy and what
happens when or if they decide to rug
pull tether on its treasur
incredible so this is again I like the
way you think it's good to understand
exactly you know be
paranoid cover every angle when it comes
to investing in assets but there's a
couple of things I would say would the
US rug pull tether um so for me there's
no indication that the US is using
tether as a proxy for cbdc despite
tether's US Treasury Holdings and a rug
pull by the US on Tether treasury would
jeopardize the US's credibility in
global markets by suggesting it might
default on debts and the chance of the
US defaulting on debt to tether is zero
given the high stakes of maintaining a
solid borrower reputation remember as
well tether is actually doing the US
Treasury a huge favor by buying all the
debt there aren't a lot of people buying
US debt anymore especially with bricks
Nations Etc so they should be very happy
for tether
and that's why smart lawmakers see the
importance of stable coins uh as we go
forward to help the dollar survive the
onslaught of not being a popular
currency now with all of the
polarization
between bricks and non- Bricks places
out there on Earth so I don't think it's
a concern there's also other concerns
that the us is going to try try control
Bitcoin to try push cbdcs to is like no
that's not how it works as we covered
before anyway Rico
spider I'm finding it difficult to find
my rhythm I've been momentum day trading
the past year but it's timec consuming
stressful and not successful and
thinking about swing trading instead did
you encounter this when you first
started out and what you did to resolve
it yeah so first of all I measure
everything and I used to day trade a
long time ago in the '90s but it is very
stressful very stressful and it's a lot
easier to do today cuz it's far better
tools and the markets are 24/7 in crypto
but even back then you know I dabbled
with scalping as well testing out some
tools but it just gives you a pain in
your head and I don't mind watching
monitors for 16 18 hours a day but that
is is hard and you don't need that type
of stress plus there's another Advantage
too longer time frames and I figured
this out as well back in the '90s the
more time you have the easier it is you
can better manage your probability
abilities too it's very difficult to
predict something over a 5 minute time
frame but it's super easy to do it over
a 4-Hour time frame so this will bring
you into the swing Zone um and there's a
couple of things that will be far less
stressful you will enjoy the higher time
frames you got much better probabilities
much better win ratios and you can
develop your own strategy too and it's
very important as well once you do that
as well once you find your Rhythm you
got to review and adjust it too cuz
markets do change assets do change we go
from bare mark to Bull markets in fact
did I even show it back here with Rune
on the ATR so what we do actually with
our models we superimpose the bare
Market in the background that's that red
bar there I forgot to mention it that's
the bare market so when you're in a bare
Market it's very very important you
adjust how you play play the game okay
um so let's go back to where we were
make sure I can find it um
um here we are
yes uh hang
on yeah sorry wanted to show you that as
well uh always review and adjust
depending on market conditions and
remember the most important thing is the
mindset is your friend or your
enemy if you're not in the right frame
of mind if something is rattling you if
you got a a burning problem elsewhere or
if you're feeling down or if you're not
enthusiastic you're not going to tr
trade well so probably the most
important thing is make sure you love
doing it make sure you're in a good
frame of mind otherwise you will not be
successful and then find what you're
interested in find the asset classes
find your Tempo excise the right ones
and then use the tools we'll talk about
some of the different tools that are
available tied into this
question um again everything's Duff
tailing together this is from undeniable
I'm in my late 20s and I've amassed a
six figures in my portfolio well done
for such a young person that's very
impressive and remember I always say
this
too it's it's easy it's hard to get to
like 100 Grand but to go from 100 to a
million is easy and to go from a million
to 10 million is even easier again so
just like exponentiality the same thing
works as your portfolio so you're going
to be very successful no if signs or
butts but I want to get into trading
options Futures to reach seven figures
faster without recklessness I like the
way you think um leaning more towards
crypto to start with to take advantage
of the volatile Market what I tools
would you suggest to use and over what
time frames would be best so as per the
previous question my favorite time zone
is 4 hour because I can get a kind of a
macro view of Trends and where things
are going but when it comes to striking
I zoom into the hour and then the 15
minute then the 5 minute 5 minute
determines when I buy
so you got to zoom out and then zoom in
it's like how do I say I'm not a hunter
I never shoot an animal but this is the
analogy I like to use imagine you're
looking across a field and you have a
rifle with a scope and you're looking
for something that's like the 4 Hour
then you see something rustling in the
bushes you zoom into the 1 hour and then
you get really still you breathe
carefully 15 minute you're focusing and
then five that's kind of the simp way to
think about it in terms of the tools we
are working on something it's taking a
bit longer to come to Market but we have
a an investor profiler system that's
going to be online free for anybody to
use and'll help you identify your blind
spot and we're going to map that back to
things that will help those blind spots
but this is kind of the model cheat
sheet you can just pause it here and you
can see all the stuff we have it'll talk
about the trader type the experience
level the different settings you know
what type type of time frame like the
daily or the 4H hour whatever else the
short code and what they are for and how
they work so I suggest you you've got to
again per the previous question you've
got to find the assets you're interested
in find the winners enjoy what you do
find out how much time you can allocate
towards trading and then find the fit of
model and then adjust paper trade dial
it in find your Rhythm and then make
your million
dollars and again it's harder to make
the first 100,000 than the next million
uh yield curve this from poop blast the
yield curve has been inverted since the
summer of 2022 what do you think about
that well let's have a look at this a
lot of people are talking about yield
curve but I also have my radical Theory
as to why I don't believe much of the
stuff that's out there so this is the
yield curve so first of all the blue
blue and orange is the let me see it's
the 10e the 2-year minus the 10-year
interest rate and the red line is a
chart that shows you exactly when it's
inverted a courtesy of caprioli
Investments now the red dots indicate
when the yield curve is inverted across
the top on a daily basis or on a monthly
basis so yeah you can see here we go
back to 2022 where this yield curve has
been inverted it was also inverted
briefly in March 2020 during c19 and
before that was up to the global
financial crisis and a lot of people
still have PTSD from the global
financial crisis because said well the
yield curve is inverted how come we
didn't see the global financial crisis
coming and then they think it's kind of
an indicator of something bad is really
going to happen now my conspiracy theory
is a little bit different as always so
first of all I think it is a bit
different this time because we are
transitioning from what the IAL Zer
that's the zero interest rate policy uh
to higher rates because we've never been
in a zero interest rate policy
environment before the markets maybe
don't know how to react it could just be
a complete curve bow and we have been
inverted since summer
2022 but because Zer maintained low
interest rates for so long that
encouraged a lot of borrowing and
investment and then changing
expectations of rate increases has led
to the
inversion and the inversion with
short-term rates surpassing long-term
rates signals worries of course about
the economy and now you've got a very
paranoid uh Jerome Powell
who missed the whole inflation thing
said it was transitory and now he wants
to make sure he kills it even if the US
spends one and a. half trillion dollars
a year on interest and blows up deficits
so a little bit of ego is getting in the
way here now could the yield curve
inversion that's been there for for now
2 years almost indicate a recession yeah
but we've already had a recession we had
two quter of negative growth and all the
growth that's happening right now when
you see GDP of 5% it's like well the
economy is growing yay is it's going
really no no no no no no no the
government is doing kind of
stealthy investment in itself and that's
what's ex growing GDP it doesn't hit
your pocket okay so that's the important
thing could have recession come yeah
have we had recessions already in the
last two years yeah 18 states in the US
were in recession and we had two
quarters of negative growth and all the
growth today is fake so we could
actually be in a recession for all we
know and again as I always say by the
time you find out you're in a recession
the markets are already coming out of it
so there definitely there is a big Tech
recession too we also have something
very interesting going on as well again
in This Time It's Different news we have
the AI Revolution happening and you look
at the layoffs across Tech and many many
other Industries that's only just begun
and it's been brutal in technology You
could argue Tech has been in a recession
the stocks may not reflect that but if
you are looking at the payroll and the
number of employees definitely does so
there are my thoughts I think in summary
because we came from a zero interest
rate environment it's very difficult to
understand exactly how this chart will
work and if it'll trigger a recession
because everything is fake anyway
so just how it is and these are things
to be aware of uh again like like the
the left what was the left thing we
covered earlier left
translated
this left translated
cycle people are stuck in the past and
the drawing lines well in 1990 it did
this therefore it's going to do this now
everything is different everything is
different okay remember that everybody
and the favorite part of the week we
have a new uh a new adopted little baby
this is margarito is very curious
friendly and social
manity who unfortunately lost the left
front flipper and now uses remaining
right flipper and tail as propellers and
to get around and makes it happen so
thank you all for making that possible
and tomorrow we have DCA live on Ivan's
Channel Ivan's been traveling around a
lot so he is back 7:30 a.m. Pacific
10:30 am eastern US time and 3:30 or
4:30 I I get so confused now because
with Mando last week I forgot that
Portugal is 3:30 Central EUR European
Time could be 4:30 but then there spring
forward time changes I don't know what
time it is so follow me on Twitter on
patreon you get notification half an
hour before the video goes live so thank
you all as well and don't forget to
subscribe if you want to get smarter uh
that's all I'm here for No Frill no
shill let's do some questions and thank
you as well to the mods in the chat too
and everybody for coming hope
everybody's having a great time I'm
sorry I get confused my time zones but
anyhow it is confusing Let's see we have
whoa a bunch of questions
today okay bman another beautiful day to
get some extra wisdom knowledge and
understanding and James Bitcoin Supply
crunch is so fascinating it is
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