What Trump & Harris WON’T Tell You During the Campaign

Summary

The discussion explores the idea of the U.S. being in a new Cold War, characterized by a hostile rivalry with great powers like China and Russia. The speaker argues that U.S. leaders are hesitant to admit this reality, possibly hoping the problem will resolve itself. The conversation also touches on the emerging global geopolitical blocks, suggesting that the U.S. should confront this situation more openly, especially in terms of defense spending and strategic alignment. The need to acknowledge and address the geopolitical division is emphasized.

Takeaways

• 🛡️ Increasing defense spending is a necessary, but unpopular, topic during election years.
• 🌍 The US is in a new Cold War involving great powers with nuclear weapons, affecting various sectors like the economy and technology.
• 📉 US leaders often avoid acknowledging this Cold War situation, leading to a lack of preparedness for geopolitical realities.
• 🇨🇳 US leaders claim that China and Russia are not allies, but their growing cooperation suggests otherwise.
• 🥞 The camaraderie between Xi Jinping and Putin (symbolized humorously by making pancakes) indicates a strong alliance.
• 🧩 There is a reluctance to admit we're entering a period of dangerous international relations, with many still hoping for more beneficial relationships with rivals.
• ⚔️ The rivalry with China and Russia is deep and hostile, with the risk of conflict increasing as the situation is downplayed.
• 🌏 Today's geopolitical blocks resemble the Cold War divisions, with a 'global West,' a 'global East,' and a 'global South.'
• 🔗 The alignment between China and Russia is solid, making it unlikely they will split during the leadership of Xi Jinping and Putin.
• ⚖️ The US should treat China and Russia as a united geopolitical block to better manage the consequences of their actions, instead of pretending they are divided.

Q & A

Why is defense spending considered a difficult topic during election years?

Defense spending is often seen as a less popular topic during election years because it is not typically a point that resonates with voters, who may prefer discussions on domestic issues rather than military expenditures.

What does the speaker mean by 'Cold War' in the current context?

The speaker refers to a 'Cold War' as a hostile rivalry between great powers, like the U.S., China, and Russia, each possessing nuclear weapons. This rivalry involves competition in areas like the economy, technology, and propaganda, rather than direct military conflict.

Why do some U.S. officials deny the existence of a new Cold War?

Some officials might deny the existence of a new Cold War in hopes that by not acknowledging it, the situation may resolve itself or be less likely to escalate. There is also an aversion to returning to a period of international tension similar to the original Cold War.

What are the potential risks of not acknowledging the new Cold War, according to the speaker?

The speaker argues that not acknowledging the new Cold War increases the risk of surprise and disaster because it prevents the U.S. from adequately preparing for the geopolitical challenges it faces.

What geopolitical blocks does the speaker suggest exist in the current global landscape?

The speaker suggests that the world is divided into three geopolitical blocks: the global West (comprising the U.S., Europe, and democratic nations in East Asia and Australia), the global East (led by China, Russia, and their allies like Iran and North Korea), and the global South (similar to the non-aligned movement of the first Cold War).

How does the speaker view the relationship between China and Russia?

The speaker believes that China and Russia have formed a strong alliance, which is unlikely to break as long as their current leaders, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, are in power.

Why does the speaker believe it's important to treat China and Russia as a block?

The speaker argues that treating China and Russia as a single geopolitical block would ensure that both countries face the consequences of each other's actions, rather than allowing them to hedge their positions between the two global powers.

What might be the consequences of the U.S. not taking the Cold War scenario seriously?

If the U.S. does not take the Cold War scenario seriously, it risks being unprepared for the challenges posed by its rivals, leading to greater chances of conflict and instability.

What historical analogy does the speaker use to explain the current geopolitical situation?

The speaker compares the current geopolitical situation to the original Cold War, emphasizing that while there are differences, the basic dynamics of great power rivalry and global division into blocks are similar.

How does the speaker suggest the U.S. should approach its relationship with China and Russia?

The speaker suggests that the U.S. should acknowledge the alliance between China and Russia, treat them as a unified block, and impose consequences on both countries for their actions, rather than allowing them to maintain a strategic hedge.

Outlines

00:00

💬 Discussing Defense Spending and Cold War Realities

In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges of advocating for increased defense spending during an election year. They argue that U.S. officials should be transparent with the public about the realities of a new Cold War. The term 'Cold War' is described as a rivalry between great powers with nuclear weapons, involving competition in sectors like the economy and technology. The speaker criticizes U.S. leaders for denying the existence of this Cold War, despite clear alliances between China and Russia.

05:02

🧐 Denial of the Cold War: Reasons and Risks

The speaker explores why U.S. officials deny the Cold War with China and Russia. One explanation is that by refusing to acknowledge the issue, they hope it will resolve itself. The speaker warns that this mindset is dangerous, as it prevents proper preparation for the risks ahead. They believe the U.S. should have addressed this situation in 2022 and that denial will only heighten the potential for surprises and disaster.

🌍 Revisiting Cold War Geopolitical Blocks

The speaker reflects on the Cold War's geopolitical divisions, noting how the world was split into the 'First World' (the West), the 'Second World' (Communist countries), and the 'Third World' (unaligned nations). They argue that a similar dynamic exists today, with a 'global West,' a 'global East' (led by China and Russia), and a 'global South.' While not identical to the Cold War, this division provides a useful framework for understanding current geopolitical alliances.

🔄 Modern Geopolitical Blocks and Their Implications

The speaker elaborates on today's geopolitical blocks, highlighting the 'global West' (democratic nations), the 'global East' (China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran), and the 'global South' (developing or unaligned countries). They emphasize that viewing the current situation through a Cold War lens helps clarify international dynamics. This perspective highlights that China and Russia are unlikely to split and should be treated as a united block.

⚖️ Treating China and Russia as a Single Geopolitical Block

The final section focuses on the strategic implications of treating China and Russia as one block. The speaker argues that while the U.S. has sanctioned Chinese companies aiding Russia’s war, the Chinese economy hasn't faced significant consequences. To strengthen pressure, the U.S. should push these two powers closer together rather than assuming their relationship will weaken.

Keywords

💡Cold War

The term 'Cold War' refers to a period of intense rivalry between great powers, characterized by economic, propaganda, and technological competition rather than direct military conflict. In the video, the speaker suggests that the U.S. is entering a new period of Cold War, particularly with China and Russia, and emphasizes the importance of acknowledging this reality.

💡Defense Spending

Defense spending refers to the allocation of government funds toward military and defense capabilities. The video discusses the challenges of increasing defense spending in an election year, where such a topic is unpopular. The speaker argues that increasing defense spending is crucial due to the geopolitical threats posed by rivals like China and Russia.

💡Geopolitical Blocks

Geopolitical blocks are groups of countries aligned by political, economic, or military interests. The speaker describes a world divided into three major blocks: the global West, the global East, and the global South. These blocks are analogous to the alignments during the first Cold War and reflect current global power dynamics.

💡Global West

The 'Global West' includes democracies such as the U.S., European countries, and allies in East Asia and Australia. This term reflects a collective alignment of countries around the world that share similar values and interests, particularly in opposition to the 'Global East,' which is dominated by China and Russia.

💡Global East

The 'Global East' primarily refers to countries like China, Russia, and their allies, including Iran and North Korea. These nations are seen as a collective rival to the Global West, engaged in a hostile geopolitical competition, akin to the Cold War dynamics.

💡Global South

The 'Global South' refers to countries that were once part of the non-aligned movement or what was historically termed the Third World during the first Cold War. These countries are often developing nations and play a significant role in the current geopolitical landscape, sometimes aligning with either the Global West or East.

💡US-China Relations

US-China relations are a focal point of the video's discussion, particularly in the context of a new Cold War. The speaker suggests that despite attempts to downplay tensions, the U.S. is in a deep rivalry with China, which has significant implications for global stability and U.S. defense strategies.

💡Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear weapons are highlighted as a central element of the Cold War, both past and present. The possession of nuclear weapons by major powers like the U.S., China, and Russia forces their competition into other arenas, such as the economy and technology, to avoid direct military conflict.

💡Propaganda

Propaganda is used as a tool in the Cold War to influence public opinion and promote ideological agendas. In the video, it is mentioned as one of the sectors where the Cold War rivalry between global powers manifests, alongside the economy and technology.

💡Election Year

An election year refers to the period leading up to a national election, during which political strategies and messaging are critical. The video discusses how advocating for increased defense spending is politically challenging during an election year, as it is not a popular stance with voters.

Highlights

The speaker suggests that US officials should level with the American people about the new Cold War situation.

The speaker emphasizes that the rivalry between great powers like the US, China, and Russia is forcing competition into various sectors such as the economy, propaganda, and technology.

The speaker argues that many American political leaders are not admitting the reality of the Cold War, leading to a dangerous situation.

The speaker highlights the importance of preparing for geopolitical realities to avoid surprises and disasters.

The speaker contends that the world is splitting into geopolitical blocks similar to the first Cold War, with a 'global West,' 'global East,' and 'global South.'

The speaker notes that the 'global West' includes democracies from Europe, East Asia, Australia, and North America.

The speaker identifies the 'global East' as including the PRC (China), the Russian Federation, Iran, and North Korea.

The speaker suggests that some countries, like Pakistan, may straddle the boundaries between the 'global East' and 'global South.'

The speaker argues that the Cold War framework is a useful heuristic to understand the current geopolitical dynamics.

The speaker believes that the US should acknowledge and treat the China-Russia relationship as a solidified alliance.

The speaker mentions the need for the US to impose more comprehensive consequences on China for supporting Russia's war efforts.

The speaker asserts that ignoring the growing alignment between China and Russia is a strategic mistake for the US.

The speaker implies that the US should aim to push China and Russia closer together, rather than hoping for a division.

The speaker points out that although the Chinese economy is struggling, it hasn't fully suffered from its support of Russia.

The speaker suggests that US officials may be avoiding admitting the Cold War to prevent the situation from becoming more real.

Transcripts

[Music]

I mean I asked this is Matt Pinger when

he was on our show um one thing that the

book The Boiling Mo talks about is like

we need to increase defense spending

just like you've been saying and because

it's a election year this year talking

about defense bending is not exactly a

popular you know like talking point in

terms of elect me and we will spend more

on the military so how do you think

that us officials or

politicians can talk about this in a way

that makes sense to the US

people I think it starts with with

leveling with the American people the

the situation that we're

in uh We've entered a new period of Cold

War um and I mean that in a very

specific sense you know cold war is a is

a you know hostile rivalry between great

Powers each possessing nuclear weapons

which forces the competition into a

variety of other sectors like the

economy uh you know uh into propaganda

uh into

technology um and it forces us to to to

to do things uh and take more seriously

sort of the

geopolitical uh Stakes that we find

ourselves in because it's really it's

really a battle over how does the world

work right how does the international

order work um and

and we've not you know at least I

haven't

seen American political leaders level

with the American people that that's the

situation we're in in fact what we're in

right now is you know numerous leaders

uh and and and officials adamantly

saying that we're not in a cold war

right that this is not

happening uh that China and Russia are

not allies right and and it would seem

to me that that is objectively false on

both counts I mean Xi Jinping and Putin

made pancakes together I mean if that's

not friendship I don't know what is um

why do you think that the US officials

are saying we're not in a cold war is

this trying to signal to China or like

is this like are they they do they

actually believe we're not in a cold war

yeah I so I mean I mean part of it is I

think a a a

desire to um that if you don't admit

something is happening maybe it won't be

become real right um that that you know

as long as you as long as you ignore it

maybe the problem will go away and it

can resolve itself and we can find a a

more mutually beneficial

relationship um I think part of it is is

that there is a there is a a a deep

aversion to the idea that that we would

go back into a

period uh of international

Affairs that um that many of us saw as

quite dangerous and and I think it

absolutely was um but it's it's it's the

least worst option for us right now I

mean the reality is is that we are in a

deeply hostile rivalry with the threat

of War erupting and ongoing conflicts

that we are already in that are that are

sort of Allied to the

PRC um and and if we don't become

serious about that and communicate to

the American people about those

realities um the the risk for surprise

and disaster goes way up because you're

simply not preparing yourself for the

kinds of things you're actually

facing um and so I think that's a that's

a that's a that's a dangerous situation

to be in you know the time to have made

this argument was probably in the spring

of of of

2022 um and folks didn't make that

argument then and so it's becoming it

becomes much more difficult as they get

closer to an election um so I I'm I you

know I know it's hard uh and that's not

what people want to hear but I think

it's I think it's better for us to sort

of deal with reality as it is than to

pretend that it doesn't

exist yeah so you know in the in the I

guess call the first cold war between

the US and the Soviet Union the world

was basically splitting up into these

geopolitical blocks right and at the

time we called it first world that is

you know the West right the first world

second world unaligned and third world

World which was the communist countries

um but what we second world or sorry

communist second world third world were

like the what we now call I guess

developing countries cor right but it's

it's yeah well so and now now it's

called the global like what are the

geopolitical blocks that we're seeing

today are they the same are they

different well I mean I I would contend

that that we now have essentially those

same that that same three World

model um I think we have a global West

right I mean that yeah the idea of the

term West is a little bit tough just

because we're talking about countries

that exist around the world um you know

primarily

Europe um the democracies of of of East

Asia Australia North America I mean

that's that's that's sort of the global

West I mean technically Japan is really

far west of the United States exactly

yes and and possibly just North if you

consider Guam yeah yeah yeah so you know

the

directionality obviously is not the

thing here it's it's it's a concept uh

you know it's a standin term uh that

that that we've chosen to use and I

think I would say that that we've also

got a global east um and increasingly

that is the PRC the Russian

Federation the

Iranians um certainly the North

Koreans um probably would P put the

pakistanis uh in there or maybe they are

in the global south I mean you know a

couple of these will will sort of sit on

boundary lines uh and then we have a we

have a global South um which in many

ways aligns with with what had been the

third world or the non-aligned

movement um of of the first Cold War and

we're now back into that same set of of

Dynamics um you know it's not exactly

the same

um there are difficulties with with sort

of making

analogies but I would argue that that

it's a mistake for us to ignore the

category of Cold War and it's a mistake

for us to ignore the categories of these

different blocks it's a heuristic to

think about how these things work uh as

opposed to the as opposed to a direct

analogy to what we went through between

1947 and

1991 um and so uh if the US were to sort

of in a in a whole of government way

look

at uh our situation as a cold war and as

we're in this geopolitical block uh

versus you know the the China Russia

North Korea Iran block how would that

change things from the way they are

now well I think it it it would sort of

settle our minds on on the idea that

that um that there is this this budding

division between Moscow and Beijing um I

think we've got to to sort of set that

aside that that is likely not going to

materialize any time while xiin ping and

Vladimir Putin are

alive um you know those two leaders have

likely made a set of

conclusions about their own alignment

that is going to be very hard to

dislodge um and therefore we probably

need to be them and treating them as a

block so that they each suffer the the

consequences of each other's

actions right right now um even though

we've imposed some sanctions on Chinese

companies that are providing material

support to Russia's War

Machine the Chinese economy while not

doing very well is not necessarily

suffering all of the consequences that

would come from China's almost fullscale

support of the Russian war effort

and so therefore they get to sort of

hedge between the two um and and we

should probably be pushing them closer

together right now rather than

pretending that they are still split