Markets at a Crossroads!
Summary
TLDRIn a Trader Summit discussion, Blake Maro and Jim Welsh from Macro Tides analyze the US dollar's sharp decline, predicting a potential drop to the mid-90s. They discuss the significance of the dollar's 100.61 level, its impact on the triangle pattern, and the influence of economic data, particularly the jobs report, on Federal Reserve decisions. The conversation also touches on political dishonesty, economic narratives, and their effects on the market. Jim offers insights into various market indicators, including the S&P 500, treasury bonds, and gold, suggesting the markets are at a critical juncture where future economic data could significantly alter current trends.
Takeaways
- 📉 The dollar is experiencing a significant decline, with the potential for a 'dumpster fire sale' scenario as discussed by Jim Welsh.
- 📈 Jim Welsh anticipates a possible bounce in the dollar before it drops further, with key levels to watch being around 95 and 100.61.
- 🔍 The conversation emphasizes the importance of technical analysis in predicting market movements, with the dollar's triangle pattern being a critical indicator.
- 🗣️ Jim Welsh expresses concern over political dishonesty from both sides, which he believes is detrimental to the country's ability to discern truth and make informed decisions.
- 💼 The discrepancy between the establishment survey and the household survey in job numbers is highlighted, suggesting potential exaggeration in job creation figures.
- 📊 There is a significant revision in job numbers, with an overstatement of 818,000 jobs from March 2023 to March 2024, which is a cause for concern but not panic.
- 🛍️ Discretionary spending appears to be slowing, indicating that even the upper-end consumers may be starting to cut back, which could be a sign of economic softening.
- 📊 The S&P index is close to reaching an all-time high, which according to Jim, could mark an intermediate high if the pattern of a five-wave move is completed.
- 📉 Treasury bond yields have dropped below their channel, which could suggest an uptick if the economy doesn't slow down soon enough, potentially affecting the long-term outlook for yields.
- 💰 The dollar index is at a critical juncture, with the level of 100.62 being a make-or-break point that could determine the direction of the dollar's movement.
- 🏆 Gold prices are near their highs but have not yet made significant progress despite dollar weakness, suggesting a potential upcoming move if certain market conditions are met.
Q & A
What was the main topic of discussion between Blake Maro and Jim Welsh in the video?
-The main topic of discussion was the current state of the US dollar, its potential decline, and the impact of various economic factors and political statements on the financial markets.
What was Jim Welsh's prediction about the US dollar's movement?
-Jim Welsh predicted that the US dollar could have a bounce before dropping to the mid-90s, with a critical level at 100.61, which if breached, would open the door for a more significant decline.
What is the significance of the level 100.61 in the context of the dollar's movement?
-The level 100.61 is significant because it represents the low of wave B in the dollar's triangle pattern. If this level is taken out, it implies a direct decline or a much sooner decline below 95.
What does Jim Welsh believe is the key factor that will influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts?
-Jim Welsh believes that the key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts will be the jobs report, particularly if the job numbers come in much weaker than expected, which could raise the odds of a 50 basis point cut instead of 25.
How does Jim Welsh view the current political climate in the US in relation to its impact on the economy?
-Jim Welsh is concerned about the constant lying from both political sides, which he believes is aimed at ensuring that no one believes anything anymore, thus making it easier for those in power to manipulate the populace.
What was the historical context provided by Jim Welsh regarding the US economy's state in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021?
-Jim Welsh pointed out that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the GDP was up 4.2%, and in the first quarter of 2021, it was up 5.2%, contradicting the narrative that the economy was in terrible shape and needed more than $3 trillion in spending to recover.
What is the importance of the establishment survey and the household survey in understanding job creation?
-The establishment survey and the household survey are important because they provide different perspectives on job creation. Jim Welsh mentioned that the establishment survey may have exaggerated job creation numbers, and comparing it to the household survey can give a more accurate picture.
What is the significance of the jobs report in the context of the Federal Reserve's decisions?
-The jobs report is significant because it can influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates. A strong jobs report could potentially lead to a more cautious approach by the Fed, possibly affecting the expected number of rate cuts.
How does Jim Welsh view the current state of discretionary spending in the economy?
-Jim Welsh noted a bifurcated economy where the bottom 40% of wage earners are struggling with discretionary spending, while those at the upper end have been spending more freely. However, he also observed signs of slowing spending among the upper end, indicating a potential pullback.
What is the potential impact of a strong jobs report on the financial markets according to Jim Welsh?
-A strong jobs report could potentially upset market expectations, especially if it shows a lower unemployment rate and strong job growth. This could lead to a rise in the US dollar and an uptick in treasury yields, contradicting current market expectations for rate cuts.
What advice does Jim Welsh give regarding the current market conditions for gold?
-Jim Welsh suggests that gold is at a critical juncture and needs to move quickly. If the dollar rallies towards 104, gold could face selling pressure. Conversely, if the dollar breaks below the critical level, gold could easily move towards 1300.
Outlines
📉 Dollar's Downfall and Economic Concerns
In the opening paragraph, Blake Maro from Trader Summit interviews Jim Welsh from Macro Tides about the recent downturn of the US dollar. Jim discusses the expectation of a dollar rebound before a drop to mid-90s, with key levels to watch on the charts. He mentions the critical level of 100.61 as a make-or-break point for the dollar's triangle pattern. They also touch upon the upcoming jobs report and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Jim emphasizes the importance of watching the data and not jumping to conclusions based on short-term market reactions.
😠 Political Dishonesty and Economic Misrepresentation
Jim Welsh expresses his concern about the political climate in the US, highlighting the constant lying from both political sides, which he believes is aimed at confusing the public to the point where they can no longer discern truth from lies. He criticizes the narrative that the economy was in terrible shape when President Biden took office, pointing out that GDP growth was already positive before he took office. Jim also disputes the claim that inflation is due to corporate greed, comparing profit margins of grocery stores to those of tech and automotive giants. He calls for objectivity and critical thinking regarding the political rhetoric around economic issues.
📈 Market Reactions to Jackson Hole Speech and Jobs Data
This paragraph delves into the historical market reactions following the Jackson Hole speech, noting that in 16 out of 24 years, the S&P has moved more than 1%. Jim and Blake discuss the significance of the recent large jobs revision and its implications on the perception of the labor market's health. They argue that while the unemployment rate has risen, it may be due to an increase in labor force participation, including non-native born Americans. Jim suggests that the data may be overstating the softening of the economy and advises not to overreact to it, anticipating that the Federal Reserve may take a similar stance.
🛍️ Discretionary Spending and Economic Indicators
The conversation shifts to discretionary spending, with Jim noting a slowdown in areas such as airline travel, cruise lines, and accommodations, suggesting that even the higher-end consumers may be starting to cut back. Blake and Jim discuss the bifurcated economy where the bottom 40% of wage earners are struggling financially, while the upper end has been faring well until recent signs of a pullback. They also mention the importance of non-farm payrolls and participation rates as key economic indicators, with Jim arguing that the labor market is not as dire as the recent job growth slowdown might suggest.
📊 S&P 500's Potential All-Time High and Market Inflection Points
Jim and Blake analyze the S&P 500's trajectory, with Jim arguing that the index's movement above 5391 indicates a continued upward trend towards a new all-time high. He discusses the potential for an intermediate high following this move, suggesting that markets are at a critical decision point. They also touch on treasury bonds, with Jim noting the importance of the 30-year yield staying below a certain channel. He advises caution, suggesting that if the 30-year yield falls below 3.99%, it might be time to sell, as this could indicate a temporary uptick in yields.
💵 Dollar Index's Critical Levels and Gold's Performance
The final paragraph focuses on the dollar index, with Jim emphasizing the importance of the 100.62 level, which if breached, could signal a significant decline in the dollar's value. He also discusses the potential for a short-term rally in the dollar before a larger drop. Regarding gold, Jim notes that despite the dollar's weakness, gold has not rallied to new highs as expected. He speculates that gold may face selling pressure if the dollar finds support and rallies towards 104. Jim concludes by highlighting the uncertainty and the importance of watching key levels for clues on market direction.
🚀 Anticipating a Market Curveball from Economic Reports
In the closing paragraph, Blake and Jim discuss the potential impact of an upcoming jobs report on market expectations. They suggest that a strong jobs report could disrupt current market sentiments that anticipate significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Jim warns that such a report could strengthen the dollar and push treasury yields up, contrary to current market pricing. Blake thanks Jim for his guidance and invites viewers to engage with the content, while Jim emphasizes the importance of watching upcoming economic data closely.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Dollar
💡Macro Tides
💡Triangle pattern
💡Basis point cut
💡Inflation
💡GDP
💡Unemployment rate
💡Discretionary spending
💡Treasury bonds
💡Gold
💡Oversold
💡FOMC
💡Participation rate
💡Non-farm payroll
Highlights
Dollar expected to drop but not to the extent of a 'dumpster fire sale' as it's currently experiencing.
The dollar could bounce before dropping to the mid-90s, with a critical level at 100.61.
A break below 100.61 for the dollar would indicate a direct decline or much sooner drop below 95.
The current situation is a critical juncture for the dollar's future movement.
The upcoming jobs report in two weeks will be pivotal in determining the Fed's rate cut decision.
Political lying from both sides is causing a loss of trust and ability to discern truth in the population.
Economic narratives from politicians are often misleading, with GDP growth in 2020 and 2021 contradicting claims of a weak economy.
Inflation is not due to price gouging but rather policy decisions and economic conditions.
The S&P's reaction to the Jackson Hole speech historically shows significant market movement.
A large jobs revision indicates potential exaggeration in job creation numbers.
The participation rate in labor force surveys has been increasing, despite unemployment rate rise.
Discretionary spending shows signs of slowing, indicating potential economic softening.
S&P is nearing an all-time high, suggesting a continued market rally.
Treasury bond yields could potentially tick higher if the economy doesn't slow as expected.
The dollar index is at a critical level that could determine its short-term direction.
Gold prices are near their highs but have not surged as expected with dollar weakness.
Markets are at a crossroads with various indicators suggesting potential shifts in direction.
A strong jobs report could disrupt market expectations and impact the dollar and treasury yields.
Transcripts
hey Traders this is Blake marrow with
Trader Summit and it happens to be
Friday and I have Mr Jim Welsh from
macro Tides he's here and J Jim I I
gotta I gotta say and let me bring you
in I'm sorry didn't there we go I
brought you in here I have to
say you you said the dollar is going
down but you didn't say it was going to
be a dumpster fire sale I mean come on
the dollar is just getting smacked cash
here what's uh what's up with that well
you know the thought has been that the
dollar could have a bounce before it
dropped to the mid90s you know below
95 and the key level was I think it was
100.61 or something it's on the chart
I'll be able to read it um because my
assumption has been is that the dollar
was in a triangle yeah A B C D um would
be finished now a wave e would take it
towards 104 and then we drop below 95 so
that level of
100.61 which was the low of uh wave
b i is the make or break level for the
triangle and we talked about that last
week and so if you take that out that
opens the door for a direct decline or
much sooner decline below
95 uh the triangle is still alive as
long as you hold above that wave below
it implies a rally to 104 for wave e and
then you get the dump so we're at a
critical juncture well we we are and
we're gonna talk more about the
technicals and and half the charts in
front of us is going to be a lot easier
I'm sorry about that I just it is I know
you get you get so excited talking about
things and and I I gota say hey Jim hold
on hold on we're almost getting there
we're getting there but you know um it
it is really uh today Pal's uh Speech I
mean really confirms you know we're
going to get a cut just the question I
guess is and this is my takeaway is you
know we really have to watch the data uh
especially the jobs report this next um
in about two weeks because that's going
to determine whether it's going to be a
50 or a 25 did you pull the same thing
yeah I mean again I think their bias is
to stick with 25 when they met in July
you had a small number probably three
people who were in favor of cutting then
the majority wanted to wait and be
patient so I think that was the
consensus where it's like okay we're
willing to go in September not quite so
soon in July and I think their bias is
for 25 basis point cut if the jobs
number comes in much weaker than
expected and what we have seen um that
will raise the odds from 25 to 50 uh the
key point that I think people have well
we're gonna get into that in a little
bit with charts and stuff I'd rather not
jump the gun so to yeah let's let's do
I'm already jumping the gun once yeah
since you brought all these charts Jim
let's let's start with the first one and
and you're gonna have to do a little
explaining here yeah explaining as they
say Okay expain us what what are we
explaining all right one of the things
that I've been writing about in macro
ties um is and honest ly I am frightened
by what I see happening uh from a
political standpoint in our country and
so I'm going to tick off probably
everybody because I'm going to point a
finger both to the left and the right uh
and I'm going to read something which I
included in the August macro tides and I
think it's really worth people no matter
what your political bias may be is to
try to be objective and think about the
power of this statement
uh this constant lying is not aimed at
making people believe a lie but at
ensuring That No One Believes anything
anymore a people that can no longer
distinguish between truth and lies
cannot distinguish between right and
wrong and such a people deprived of the
power to think and judge is without
knowing and willing it completely
subjected to the rule of Lies with with
such a people you can do whatever you
want so when I look at the landscape I
see Lying by both sides you know Trump
this week said oh you know I'll drop oil
prices by 50% and he tossed in for good
measure that he's better looking than
kamla okay um I want to go back to this
is one of the themes that President
Biden has sounded for the last several
years and numerous
Democrats have pounded the table that
when we got into office the economy was
in terrible shape it was in the tank it
was awful right well let's look back and
see exactly how bad the economy was in
the fourth quarter of
2020 GDP was up
4.2% uh President Biden took office in
January of
2021 and in the first quarter of 2021
GDP was up
5.2% so the the whole narrative that the
economy was so weak we need needed then
to pass more than3 trillion dollar worth
of spending to pull it out of that tank
is completely unjustified and it goes a
little bit further Blake in terms of oh
the inflation that you're experiencing
is not because of Any spending we did
was because of greedy corporations and
the idea we're going to have price
controls on food and the thing I did a
tweet earlier this week is if you look
at the profit margins of uh grocery
stores it's less than 2% you compare
that to Microsoft at 35% Apple at 26%
and GM at 6.2 so the idea that inflation
was caused by price
gouging is a lie it's not a truth and it
was founded though on the idea that the
economy was in such horrible shape we
needed to do all this spending and the
reality is facing us right here all
right and so to me again my fear and why
I feel frightened is because I see both
political parties lying and now it's a
question of who can lie better to get
more votes in swing States it isn't
about policy it isn't about really
what's they're planning to do for the
country so um again I just would like
everybody whether you're lean left or
right to try to be more objective about
the lying that's taking place by both
candidates both parties and what does
that mean for our country so end of end
of Grant okay yes well let's talk let's
talk about today and know we're filming
on Friday uh August 23rd uh shortly
after pal speech what uh what are you
looking at here well this is just very
simply is going back to 2000 and looking
at okay in the week after a Jackson Hole
speech what has the S&P done and what we
can see is in 16 out of 24 years uh the
S&P has moved by more than 1% sometimes
to the downside a little bit more
frequently to the upside and obviously
we've already done that today all the
S&P was up over 1% right so the point is
is that there's always or consistently
there's a lot of expectation going into
Jackson Hole and the you know what the
FED Governor or chairman says matters so
that's all just a little historical
perspective okay well thanks for
bringing that up uh so move moving right
along um the next one you you want to
talk about the the huge jobs revision I
mean this was yeah this was on
everybody's radar this week and what did
you make of it well again you and I
spoke for you know over a few months
that the establishment survey was
exaggerating the number of job creation
especially when you compared it to the
household survey and so forth so what
they did is they said you know from
March of 23 to March of 24 we were off
by 818 th000 the only time it's been a
bigger Miss was in 2009 which obviously
was a pretty bad year now again what
complicates this so you know some people
like oh my God you know the the labor
market is is really in bad shape no no
no again we have to keep in mind that
the unemployment rate has gone up in
part because more people are entering uh
the the labor force and some of those
people are not native born Americans and
so the way the labor department
calculates these numbers is that
potentially again the unemployment rate
in part has gone up because of U this
influx of supply
some of it um is under the books so to
speak and so what that implies is that
we can you know I think we talked a
month or two ago about the data
collection process and the participation
rate on uh various surveys that the
government takes and it's gone from like
you know 60 65% in some of these surveys
down to 30 well you know that is going
to obviously have an impact in terms of
the quality of the output and so again
my point is is the economy softening yes
is the labor market easing yes I think
this number probably overstates it a
little bit and you know as such I I just
think one does you shouldn't overreact
to it and I doubt the FED members will
overreact to it okay all right good
point um you know I'm glad you brought
that up but it's still going to be
non-farm payroll is going to be very
important this uh in two weeks right oh
absolutely absolutely and but again also
things like participation rate which you
know most people never pay any attention
to but have been really important over
the last six months there's been a nice
increase in the participation rate well
what is that that means more people want
to get involved in the labor market and
that's happened while the unemployment
rate has gone up so that is contributing
and has contributed to the increase in
the unemployment rate which is why I
think Paul and other fomc members have
not been hitting if you will the panic
button remember they projected I think
four or 4.1% on the unemployment rate at
the end of this year well last month it
was 4.3 but when they look underneath
the surface they can see that all right
there's extenuating circumstances which
suggest that that number is overstating
the true level of unemployment the other
thing I'll mentioned uh warn notices
which are basically companies that are
going to plan to lay off somebody Blake
uh have to give a warn notice it has to
be 60 days in
advance um those are still very low so
what we're seeing is companies have cut
back on hiring which is why job growth
has slowed but we haven't seen the next
phase which is letting people go and and
until that happens you know the economy
is going to continue to kind of chug
along I think it's coming but we're just
not there yet all right well tell us
what's up going on with discretionary
spending because these charts don't look
like they're bullish we have a
bifurcated economy the bottom 40% of
wage earners have burn through their
savings they're they are having trouble
going to the grocery store and so forth
uh paying rent and so on at the same
time you have those at the upper end
that have been having a great time in
terms of traveling and what this shows
is a airline travel uh Cruise Lines
accommodations and there has been a
noticeable slowing so this is just a
hint that woo wait maybe some of the
people at the top who have the
wherewithal to spend are starting to
scale back a little bit it's just one of
those an I would call it anecdotal
pieces of evidence yeah that you know
again around the edges things are
softening but obviously um you know as I
noted last week when we talked about the
retail sales number oh was up
1% yeah but the reason it was up because
Car
Sales uh added 6% and the reason that
happened is because in July there was a
uh you know a Cyber attack on all the
dealerships in the United States and
they really couldn't conduct business so
again we're at in an inflection point
one has to dig deeper when you look at
these numbers Blake um because at
inflection points you get if you were
cross currence and so this is just one
more sign to me that all right the upper
end may be starting to pull back a
little bit all right well tell us what
that means regarding the markets because
S&P yeah you would you'd argued that we
could indeed hit alltime highs this was
two weeks ago and we're less than a
percent away maybe yeah we got well we
got within I think 27 points yesterday
yeah and probably 30 points today um now
the pattern once the S&P got above
5391 to me the chart then changed in
sense of okay we're not going down for a
retest or anything like that we're going
up toward a new all-time high and you
know what you can see is from that low
at
5119 um to me that was wave four from
the low back in April we're in wave five
um it implies a move um wave one of five
was about 200 points if we had 200
points on top of
5561 you're talking
5760 um a and anyway so to me yes I just
think the you know that the chat chart
pattern has changed I thought two three
weeks ago when people were like oh my
God the unemployment rate went up lot
and that was a total misinterpretation
of just how weak you know like oh my God
the S rule says we're in a recession my
take was no that's not the reality and
um I think as the data has come in to
kind of comfort people this is why we've
seen a pretty dramatic reaction um so I
think we're going well we're going to
get to a new high uh high probability
given that we're so close um but thank
you for noting that you know we talked
about this a couple weeks ago um now
once we finish this move up Blake um
potentially that will mark an
intermediate High uh because it'll be
five up and you know we'll see um well
you
got you got to sucker the last amount of
people in
right yeah yeah you know and what's
interesting to me is a lot of the charts
of various markets are at a decision
point you know it's like okay we're
coming to the fork of the road which way
are they're going so the S&P make a new
all-time high has the potential of
completing uh the rally that we've seen
at least from April and maybe even
further back um and you know when we
look at treasury
bonds they're coming I think to a fork
in a row and I think that's the next
chart I think well the next chart would
be the 30 year yes it is wow what do you
know so what we've talked about is
treasury bond yields dropped below that
channel that they've been been in after
topping in April they got below that and
so to me staying below that channel is
important um without getting too crazy
here uh there is a chance that treasury
bonds are if the economy doesn't slow
soon enough if you will then I think the
treasury yields and the chart for the
ten years is pretty much identical get
back in that channel that opens the door
potentially Blake to treasure yields
ticking higher and then tagging or
getting darn close to the black channel
line so it doesn't negate the long-term
Outlook that okay I think yields are
going down but what it implies is that
we're going to have another one of these
upward adjustment in
yields um and um you know so my take
would be is if the 30-year gets below
3.99 you know what I've recommended in
my letter is that TLT getting above the
high it reached a week or two ago I
think it was
9993 it's time to do some selling and I
would say that if the 30-year you know
be the same thing in a sense gets below
that $
3999 time to let up a little bit because
I I I just think that there's the risk
here that we're going to see treasury
yields uptick for a little window of
time um again people are
so certain that the FED is going to be
aggressive do you know that the Market's
been pricing in and it's probably gone
up since yesterday 100 basis points of
cuts before the end of this year there's
only three meetings right so that means
one of the meetings has to include a 50
basis point height and then they're
looking for I think five or six basis
point or five cuts next year yep uh I
just think that that
doesn't
apply uh in unless the econom is weaker
and we're not there yet I think it is
going to weaken okay so um that's where
we are in Treasure we talked a little
bit about the dollar Index here's the
chart as I said the
100.62 really important it holds that
because if it takes that out then the
idea of a triangle that pattern breaks
down and instead you had from the high
in October of 22 in the dollar it it
dropped from
11478 down to 1015 so it dropped 13
Points
Plus what that this if it takes out that
100.62 what that says is ah you had this
big decline you had a rally to
10734 and now you're in the process of
dropping over 13 points from 107 and
that gets you to
9361 so that again we're at a Crossroads
if the dollar digs in a teal it's
oversold sentiment is obviously quite
negative netive at this point in time
and you know and I've talked about this
for several months I thought the dollar
would weaken as people realize that the
you know the FED is going to be cutting
rates at some point in time and if we
get to the point where the economy slows
even more materially that would be even
worse for the dollar so short term I
thought last week there was still a shot
for a rally up towards 104 for wave e
and then we'd get the big dump so we're
at across roads um in the dollar Index
well it is been it's been a hell of a
hell of a decline the last couple of
weeks but you know a lot of people will
say oh it's oversold but you guys can't
forget oversold can be more oversold
overbought can be more overbought so um
you know I I always try to remind people
of that because I've seen too many moves
in my career that they look overbought
but they continue to look overbought or
oversold as as as price continues so
yeah well go just look at the dollar
chart Blake real quick you can see where
I over to left one two three you see
that low at number three well the RSI
was oversold at the bottom of three okay
you got to bounce then I went from 104
it dropped Four Points yeah you know so
gee Oh I thought it was oversold yeah
but then it dropped you know beyond that
wave three low which is typical and
that's why the idea of using momentum is
very helpful but that's why I think you
need price filter if you will and one of
the things I've talked about is the the
five versus 13 exponential moving
averages because what you can see is uh
you can get things
oversold and like we saw back in
December of last year I think that is um
you know that 513 if you went in because
it was oversold you got to bounce and
then you can see the quick reversal the
five and 13 or the five Crossing below
the 13 would have been a nice signal to
say you know what I'm a little early um
so you know you can see right now the
red is the five the green is the 13
moving average um they're not even close
to being Crossing in a positive sense so
okay so U gold is your last chart and
gold has been you know frustratingly
pegged near its Highs but you would
think that with the dollar weakness that
uh gold would have rallied a new Highs
but it it it's stall it it did it got up
to 2529 which obviously was a new high
but it's kind of St as you noted this
red trend line I I I'm assuming that the
probability is it's going to pop above
that
line and um does it make it to 2600 I
don't know again markets are at a
juncture if the dollar starts to dig in
its heels and the triangle is is if you
will uh
reconfirmed um and get that bounce
towards 104 it's hard to believe that
gold isn't going to get hit with some
selling so to me is like okay we're at
this window where gold needs to get
going here really quick and if the
dollar digs in then the gold is going to
I think be set up for another decent Siz
pullback uh if the dollar indeed rallies
to 104 conversely you take out that
triangle L you know that we talked about
just now on the dollar that should be a
green
for gold to move easily to
2300 so you know I again markets I think
are at uh
Crossroads and you know uh I have no
idea with any degree of
certainty how it's going to play out
other than knowing what levels to pay
attention to as providing clues in terms
of how this whole piece will come
together all right Jim well then you're
no help this
week just kidding you know you know what
I I've heard my wife say that you know
you you've you've been a great guide uh
through especially through these summer
months it's been so wild in the markets
um and and I want to thank you for for
taking us every day and if you guys do
appreciate these conversations that we
have with Jim make sure you're jumping
in the comments below uh telling them
how how much you appreciate him uh give
him a thumbs up and subscribe to the
channel on and also uh contact Jim at
macro Tides what's the email Jim Jim
Welsh uh macro Gmail or macro.com one
thing I'll point out real quick here the
markets are more vulnerable I think
Blake if we get a healthy jobs
report and I think there's a really
decent probability that the unemployment
rate will tick down from
43 to
42 so again in terms of all all the
expectations oh the fed's going to be
cutting 100 basis points this year what
could really upset that apple cart would
be a report jobs report that's you know
back to 150 or whatever and the
unemployment rate ticks down all of a
sudden can the dollar make 104 in that
environment yes can treasury yields tick
up in that environment absolutely you
know so um that J report has the pot
potential of providing a real curveball
for markets given where psychology is
right now well the good news is we'll
have another meeting between now and
then and so so make sure you catch us
here next week on on on uh on Trader
Summit with Jim and Jim thank you so
much for guiding us each and every day I
do appreciate you or each and every week
excuse me and I do appreciate you I know
Folks at home do as well I appreciate
you Blake thank you so much all right
you guys have a great one and we'll talk
to you next week Jim you got got it hey
Traders Blake Maro here thanks for
stopping by our YouTube channel don't
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thanks for stopping by we'll see you in
the next video
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