MARA Marathon Digital Holdings Stock Analysis, Sell Mode?!
Summary
TLDRToday's analysis focuses on Marathon Digital and its recent performance amidst a broader downturn in mining stocks. Despite a promising pre-market gap up, the stock struggles at a key support level, coinciding with its 50-day moving average. The video highlights recent negative trends in the stock and the sector, including the impact of a significant shelf offering by Marathon, potentially diluting shares by 25%. Additionally, the discussion touches on Bitcoin's volatile price action, reaching new highs before a sharp pullback. The video concludes with technical insights on potential support levels and the implications of short sale restrictions after significant drops.
Takeaways
- 🔍 The analysis focuses on Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) stock and the overall crypto mining sector on March 5th, 2024.
- 📉 MARA stock was gapping down, with 5 out of the last 6 trading sessions being negative, including a 12% drop on the day of analysis.
- ⚠️ Other crypto mining stocks like Riot Blockchain and CleanSpark were also down, along with MicroStrategy (MSTR) after its convertible notes offering to buy more Bitcoin.
- 💰 Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high of over $70K but then flushed down to $65K on the day of analysis.
- 📄 MARA filed for a $1.5 billion shelf offering, potentially diluting existing shares by 25%, and another filing for 15 million shares for employee benefit plans.
- 🎯 Key support levels for MARA stock are being watched at $22 (50-day moving average), $16-$15, and $15.50 (200-day moving average consolidation zone).
- 🛡 Short sale restriction rules may kick in after a 10% downdraw, limiting short selling below the highest bid.
- 📈 The analysis suggests MARA stock could potentially drop to the $15-$16 range or even down to the $15.50 support level.
- 📊 Technical analysis and monitoring of SEC filings are emphasized as important factors in evaluating MARA's stock movement.
- 🌐 The analysis provides insights into the broader crypto mining industry and its correlation with Bitcoin price movements.
Q & A
What stock is the transcript primarily discussing?
-The transcript is primarily discussing Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), a cryptocurrency mining company.
What was the pre-market price range mentioned for MARA?
-The pre-market price range mentioned for MARA was between $24.50 and $22.69.
What technical levels is the speaker watching for MARA?
-The speaker is watching the $22.69 level, which was a previous support level and also corresponds to the 50-day moving average. Additionally, they are watching the $16 and $15 levels, which are the 200-day moving average and a previous consolidation zone.
What news about MARA's filings is discussed?
-The transcript mentions that MARA filed a shelf offering a few days after their earnings report, which could dilute existing shares by up to 25% as they plan to sell up to $1.5 billion worth of shares. Additionally, it mentions a filing on March 4th related to offering securities to employees and employee benefit plans, registering an additional 15 million shares.
What is mentioned about Bitcoin's price action?
-The transcript states that Bitcoin was making new all-time highs, reaching over $70,000 before flushing down to $65,000.
What other cryptocurrency mining stocks are mentioned?
-The transcript mentions Riot Blockchain (RIOT) and CleanSpark (CLSK) as other cryptocurrency mining stocks that were down on the day.
What is mentioned about the short sale restriction for MARA?
-The transcript states that after a 10% down move, a short sale restriction kicks in for MARA, meaning traders cannot sell short at the bid price and must sell above the highest bid.
What is the overall sentiment expressed about MARA's stock price?
-The overall sentiment expressed about MARA's stock price is bearish, with the speaker noting that 5 out of the last 6 trading sessions were negative, and suggesting the stock could potentially fall to the $15-$16 level.
What other company is mentioned in relation to Bitcoin?
-MicroStrategy (MSTR) is mentioned as a company that did a convertible note offering to buy back more Bitcoin, and its stock price was also down on the day.
What is the speaker's advice to viewers regarding MARA's filings?
-The speaker advises viewers to read MARA's SEC filings themselves, stating: "I'm just surprised people don't watch the filings SEC filings you can do it yourself well they did a few days ago right after they did their earnings they reported earnings, they filed shelf offering which means they will be selling little by little, whenever they want whenever they can, um up to 1.5 billion worth of shares, which is diluting your shares by 25%, depending wherever the market cap but, when they filed it market cap of the, mara was around 6 billion so one half, billion 25% so you can assume that your, one share is worth now 75 and also, another filing yesterday March 4th, Securities to be offered to employees, and employees benefit plans you can go, through this form as well read read read.
Outlines
👀 Marathon Digital Stock Analysis
This paragraph provides a technical analysis of Marathon Digital's stock, discussing the pre-market low, support levels around $22.69, the downtrend over the past 6 trading sessions, and the negative performance of other cryptocurrency mining stocks. It mentions Marathon's filing for a $1.5 billion shelf offering, diluting existing shares by 25%. The analysis highlights key support levels at $22, $15 (200-day moving average), and the $15-$16 consolidation zone.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Marathon Digital
💡Bitcoin (BTC)
💡SEC filings
💡Dilution
💡Support levels
💡Moving averages
💡Short sale restriction
💡Other miners
💡Technical analysis
💡Earnings
Highlights
Analyzing the technical indicators and price action of Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) stock.
Observing the pre-market lows around $24.50 and the current support level at $22.69, which is also the 50-day moving average.
Noting that out of the past six trading sessions, five were negative, and MARA is down around 12% today.
Other cryptocurrency mining stocks like Riot, CleanSpark, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) are also down today.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high above $70,000 but then flushed down to $65,000.
Highlighting that Marathon Digital filed a shelf offering to sell up to $1.5 billion worth of shares, potentially diluting existing shareholders by 25%.
Marathon Digital also filed to register an additional 15 million shares for employee stock plans.
Short sale restriction kicks in after a 10% downward move, preventing short selling at the bid price.
Expecting the stock to consolidate around the 50-day moving average support level of $22.69.
Identifying the potential support levels at $16, $15, and the 200-day moving average around $14.50 if the stock loses the $22.69 level.
Emphasizing the importance of reading SEC filings to understand company actions that may impact stock prices.
Comparing the price action and performance of MARA with other cryptocurrency mining stocks and Bitcoin.
Analyzing the potential impact of dilution from the shelf offering and employee stock plan filings on existing shareholders.
Discussing the technical indicators, such as moving averages and support levels, used in the analysis.
Providing a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions and factors affecting MARA and the cryptocurrency mining industry.
Transcripts
all right let's take a look at the
marathon digital again today fourth of
uh 5th of March today and today we're
looking at the pure technicals and also
other miners are dumping as well it's
not only this stock in the morning it
was gapping up I was watching 25 2450
pre-market lows
and this
2269 back before we had this move pre
earnings run up uh that's the support
I'm watching right now that's where the
stock is trading right now and also if
you take a look at the let's pull up the
moving averages this level also is a
50-day moving average which is
uptrending but Ultra short term if you
take a look at this like price action on
a daily candle what do you see out of
six trading sessions five were negative
today including today today what 12% so
far and probably will close negative all
other um miners are down as well Riot
clean spark um and what else out there
mstr which is it's not a minor but they
did an offering yesterday convertible
notes to buy back more BTC Bitcoin and
it's down as well today BTC was making
new alltime highs I don't know on my
chart this is new alltime high 70k plus
I don't know if you have been watching
it somewhere else I don't know what is
it 73k for BTC alltime Highs but today
hit 70k plus flush down to
65 and for Mara I'm just surprised
people don't watch the filings SEC
filings you can do it yourself well they
did a few days ago right after they did
their earnings they reported earnings
they filed shelf offering which means
they will be selling little by little
whenever they want whenever they can
um up to 1.5 billion worth of shares
which is diluting your shares by 25%
depending wherever the market cap but
when they filed it market cap of the
mara was around 6 billion so one half
billion 25% so you can assume that your
one share is worth now 75 and also
another filing yesterday March 4th
Securities to be offered to employees
and employees benefit plans you can go
through this form as well read read read
so and here um what I think they have
done it before uh I'm not going to read
through all of it or any of it registers
an additional 15 million shares for
registrant common stock per value of
basically zero
so you have to read that and from here
for Mara what I'm watching so if stock
well technically after 10% of downd draw
um short sale restriction kicks in so
people cannot sell at the bit so they
have to sell it above the bit above the
highest bit if they want to short it so
I'm going to expect it to chop around
here because it is also 50-day moving
average support
but can it come down all the way to 200
a moving average of $4
$15 absolutely so support I'm watching
16 and 15 and A5 so basically this 200
day moving average and this
consolidation zone of a ,550 so that's
the next level of support if this stock
loses
22 thanks for watching see you in the
next one
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