French Army Going to Ukraine Will Be a DISASTER
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the potential for French military intervention in Ukraine amid rising tensions, with President Macron's consideration of direct involvement sparking debates. It outlines possible military operations, France's current support to Ukraine, and the logistical challenges of such an endeavor. The script also delves into historical context, comparing past French interventions and their outcomes, while questioning the political motivations behind Macron's stance ahead of the European elections.
Takeaways
- 🌐 French President Emanuel Macron is contemplating direct military intervention in Ukraine, which has raised concerns about escalating tensions towards World War III.
- 🗺️ Since May 2022, France has been leading a NATO task force of 1,000 soldiers in Romania under Mission 'Eagle', which could potentially be used for operations in Ukraine.
- 🏰 France has already supplied Ukraine with significant military equipment, including anti-tank rockets, self-propelled howitzers, and armored personnel carriers.
- 📉 Despite France's support, there are concerns about the country's ability to sustain ammunition production for prolonged conflict, with current production rates only sufficient for a few days of battle.
- 🤔 There is speculation that Macron's rhetoric may be a political strategy ahead of the European parliamentary elections, aiming to position himself against the far-right opposition.
- 🛡️ France's military capabilities are questioned, with some analysts suggesting that their force projection is limited and may not be sufficient for a large-scale operation.
- 🔄 France is reportedly reducing its military presence in West Africa, possibly to redeploy forces to Europe, indicating a strategic shift towards the Eastern theater.
- 🔄 There is an ongoing debate about the feasibility and implications of a French military intervention in Ukraine, with varying opinions on the readiness and willingness of French forces.
- 💣 The historical precedent of French military involvement in Ukraine in 1918 ended in failure, serving as a cautionary tale for current considerations of intervention.
- 🔄 France has signed a defense agreement with Moldova, potentially indicating a broader strategic interest in the region beyond direct conflict with Russia.
- 🚀 The potential for a direct confrontation between French and Russian forces carries significant risks, including the possibility of escalating to a nuclear conflict.
Q & A
What is the context of President Macron's consideration for direct intervention of French military personnel in Ukraine?
-President Macron is considering the direct intervention of French military personnel in Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict and the potential threat to European security. This consideration is part of a broader discussion on how France can best support Ukraine in its struggle against Russia.
What is NATO's Mission Egg and what role is France playing in it?
-NATO's Mission Egg is a task force led by France, consisting of 1,000 soldiers deployed in Romania. Its true purpose is to act as an observation force that could potentially be strengthened and upgraded into a quick reaction brigade in response to the situation in Ukraine.
What are the potential operations France might launch in Ukraine according to the script?
-The script mentions three potential operations: Operation CANT (possibly aimed at securing Odessa and preventing Ukraine from becoming landlocked), Operation BBC (possibly involving Belarus Border Coordination), and an unspecified third option involving Moldova.
What is the historical precedent for French military involvement in Ukraine?
-In December 1918, French troops disembarked in Odessa to support the White Army against the Bolsheviks during the Russian Civil War. However, the operation ended in failure, highlighting the challenges of intervening in another nation's civil war.
What military equipment has France supplied to Ukraine so far?
-France has supplied Ukraine with a significant amount of military equipment, including anti-tank rockets, anti-tank missile systems, self-propelled howitzers, air defense missile systems, light tanks, and armored personnel carriers.
What is the current state of France's ammunition production and how does it compare to Russia's?
-France's ammunition production is limited, with the capacity to produce only 20, 155 mm shells per year, which is enough to support Ukraine for 3 to 4 days of battle. In contrast, Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month.
What is the potential impact of French military intervention on the European political landscape?
-French military intervention in Ukraine could have significant political implications, potentially influencing the upcoming European parliamentary elections and serving as a test of France's commitment to European security.
What logistical challenges would France face in deploying troops to Ukraine?
-France would face significant logistical challenges, including the distance between France and the Romanian-Ukrainian border, the need for NATO support, and the complexity of evacuating and deploying large numbers of military personnel and equipment.
What is the potential risk of escalating the conflict between French and Russian forces?
-The risk of escalating the conflict between French and Russian forces could lead to a larger-scale war, potentially involving nuclear weapons, which would have catastrophic global consequences.
How might the French public and political establishment react to Macron's warmongering rhetoric?
-The French public and political establishment might view Macron's warmongering rhetoric as a political strategy ahead of the European elections, with some parties supporting the stance on Ukraine but opposing the commitment of ground troops.
What is the significance of the historical lesson provided at the end of the script?
-The historical lesson serves as a reminder of the perils of intervening in another nation's civil war, highlighting the challenges and failures of the French military intervention in Ukraine in 1918-1919.
Outlines
🌎 Geopolitical Tensions: French Military Intervention in Ukraine
The script discusses the possibility of France intervening militarily in Ukraine, spurred by President Macron's statements. It mentions France's role in NATO's Mission Egg, leading a task force in Romania, and the potential for this force to be used in Ukraine. The video also speculates on France's capacity for warfare, referencing historical precedents and current military capabilities, including equipment supplied to Ukraine and the challenges of ammunition shortages. It critiques the French military's readiness and the political motivations behind the rhetoric of military intervention.
🛡️ France's Military Support and Potential Direct Intervention in Ukraine
This paragraph delves into the specifics of France's current military support to Ukraine, including the types and quantities of equipment provided. It also addresses the potential for direct military intervention, with France's announcement to consider sending troops to Ukraine. The script mentions the reactions from NATO leaders and the logistical challenges France would face in such an operation. It outlines the current French military presence in the region, including advisers and special forces, and touches on the broader implications of French involvement in the conflict.
🏰 Historical and Logistical Considerations of French Military Deployment
The script explores the historical context of French military expeditions and the logistical complexities of deploying forces to Ukraine. It references France's past military interventions and the lessons learned from them, particularly the failed 1918 expedition to Odessa. The paragraph also discusses the current logistical capabilities of the French military, including the challenges of distance and the need for NATO support. It speculates on the potential troop strength France could deploy and the strategic options available, such as positioning forces in Moldova or focusing on Transnistria.
🗺️ Strategic Deployment and the Risks of Escalation
This paragraph examines the strategic options for a French military deployment to Ukraine, including the potential for a quick reaction force and the challenges of defending a large front with limited troops. It discusses the possibility of using the French task force in Romania or deploying additional forces to Moldova as a decoy for other strategic objectives. The script also raises the stakes by considering the potential for conflict between French and Russian forces, which could escalate to a nuclear level, and touches on the political motivations behind Macron's military posturing.
🏛️ Historical Parallels and Political Maneuvering in France's Stance on Ukraine
The final paragraph provides a historical account of France's previous military intervention in Ukraine post-World War I, highlighting the challenges and failures faced. It draws parallels to the current situation and discusses the political climate in France, including the upcoming European parliamentary elections and Macron's party's struggle for support. The script suggests that Macron's hawkish stance could be a tactic to gain political advantage, and it outlines the potential impact on French politics and public opinion regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡World War III
💡Emanuel Macron
💡NATO's Mission Egg
💡Operation Cant
💡Ammunition Shortages
💡French Foreign Legion
💡Logistical Support
💡European Parliamentary Elections
💡Nuclear War
💡French Military Intervention in Ukraine (1918)
💡Transnistria
Highlights
Emanuel Macron, President of France, is considering direct intervention of French military personnel in Ukraine.
Modern diplomacy suggests that an advance towards Odessa or Keef could trigger a French intervention.
France has been leading a NATO task force of 1,000 soldiers deployed in Romania since May 2022.
Rumors claim Macron's off-camera statement about sending troops to Odessa in the coming year.
Ukrainians are fortifying the region of Odessa but face diminishing supplies and manpower shortages.
The potential operation 'Cant on the nepper' aims to secure Odessa and prevent Ukraine from becoming landlocked.
The French 12th Regiment of Curassiers is conducting large-scale exercises near the Ukrainian border.
France faces ammunition shortages, producing only enough for 3 to 4 days of battle for Ukraine.
French analysts suggest the warmongering rhetoric may be a political strategy for the upcoming European elections.
France's historical failed expedition to Odessa in December 1918 is highlighted as a lesson in intervention.
France has supplied Ukraine with significant military equipment, including anti-tank rockets and self-propelled howitzers.
French TV admits the French production capacity is insufficient compared to Russia's monthly artillery production.
NATO and France's involvement in military operations in the Black Sea includes intelligence gathering.
French military instructors are in Poland, training Ukrainian recruits, but their training effectiveness is questioned.
The French army's force projection capabilities are limited, with a realistic deployment of 7,000 to 15,000 soldiers.
France's logistical challenges are highlighted, with past interventions requiring NATO support.
France's potential deployment to Moldova and the strategic implications of securing Transnistria are discussed.
The risk of escalation between French and Russian forces could potentially lead to a nuclear war scenario.
Macron's political motivations for the warmongering attitude are questioned ahead of the European parliamentary elections.
The historical context of France's failed 1918 expedition to Ukraine is provided for perspective on intervention.
Transcripts
my friends is it me or we are inching
towards World War III as you might have
heard Emanuel macron the president of
France is considering the direct
intervention of French military
personnel in Ukraine madness madness and
stupidity modern diplomacy wrote maon an
advance of the front towards adessa or
Keef could trigger an intervention by
France the problem with the French is
that they can be quite impulsive in
regards to Warfare because I always
agree to
attack on French TV they are already
discussing about the ludicrous idea of
sending entire regiments up to the
nepper to scare the Russian army what
you have to know is that since May 2022
as part of NATO's Mission egg or Eagle
France is leading a task force of 1,000
soldiers deployed in Romania what is
their true purpose and what can they do
from there rumors claim that off camera
maon also said anyway in the coming year
I will have to send some dudes to Odessa
the ukrainians are already heavily
fortifying the region but with
diminishing supplies of ammunition and a
shortage of Manpower it might not be
enough if Russia decides to launch a
full-on offensive across the nepper
that's why we could witness operation
OCD operation cant on the nepper to
secure adessa and maybe her son the
objective would be to prevent Ukraine
from becoming a landlocked Nation
let's go in and out 20 minutes
[Music]
Adventure the French could also launch
operation BBC the bellarus Border
coordination to relieve Ukrainian units
guarding the sector there's also a third
option involving mdova but I'll keep the
surprise for later in the video on the
20th of January French national TV
reported that the 12th Regiment of
curers is currently carrying large-
scale exercises near the Ukrainian
border with its 13 laclair tanks and
Lieutenant clemance essentially said
their 10 million euro tanks currently
have no real countermeasures Against
drones at Le excellent I will soon have
the entire NATO collection Peck leer two
Challenger two Abrams only ler is
missing realistically is France even
ready for war that's what newspaper Leon
was wandering meanwhile Colonel Goya
says France is like a crocodile Big
Mouth Small Arms what are their true
projection of force capabilities they
can't just wing it like they do in
Africa against rebels fighting with AKs
and sandals aboard Toyota pickup trucks
to be honest France didn't even start
fighting that they're already facing
ammunition shortages on the 20th of
January leigo wrote in France we have
the capacity to produce 20, 155 mm
shells per year for your information
that's just enough to help help Ukraine
for 3 to 4 days of battle and check out
what that same Colonel Goya said
recently in an
interview meanwhile some French analysts
think that this warmonger rhetoric to be
just a political stratagy right on time
for the next European election set for
the summer what's funny is that some of
the most vocal supporters of the war in
France don't actually want to fight the
war themselves they claim to be more
lethal behind their laptops than with a
machine gun of course they are of course
the worst in all that is that the French
army already launched a similar
Expedition on Odessa in December 1918
French troops disembarked in Odessa to
save the white armies from collapse from
the advancing balic the operation ended
in a complete failure more on that at
the end of the video welcome to history
Legends here are the latest news of the
Russo Ukrainian War if you're new to
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running thank you everyone that has
already helped and welcome to the
headquarters The Dilemma is that the
French president declared that the war
in Ukraine is existential for
France
this means that Ukraine's struggle to
survive as a nation is also by default
France's struggle to survive as a nation
against
Russia right now the question of the
French government is how they can best
support Ukraine number one indirect
approach more weapons more ammunition
more advisors and especially more money
number two direct military intervention
AKA boots on the ground France also
feels bad for having abandoned Poland in
1939 so to make history right and not to
repeat the same mistakes after two years
of indirect Military Support with the
Ukrainian Army struggling on the
battlefield maon decided that sending
troops to Ukraine could be envisioned in
the near future and he publicly
announced it without even warning his
NATO Partners in panic mode many NATO
leaders publicly denounced the idea of
sending European or Alliance troops to
to Ukraine however since then as you can
see on the map some countries are now
favorable to macon's strategic vision
and of a direct military intervention
before covering operation cant on theer
let's talk about France's current
support to Ukraine France has already
supplied the Ukrainian Armed Forces with
a lot of military equipment this war
effort includes
1,284 anti-tank Rockets three Milan
anti-tank missile systems 6 trf1 15 55
mm tow guns 30 Caesar 155 mm
self-propelled howitzers 4 m270 lru
rocket launcher Vehicles two Cal NG air
defense missile systems six Mistral man
pads one sppt air defense missile system
38 AMX 10rc light tanks and 250 VAB 4x4
armored personnal carriers as you can
see this is quite
significant
did you see that 40% of all the French
armies artillery now as for ammunition
between 2022 and 2023 France delivered
30,000 artillery shells to Ukraine in
January a report for the French Senate
revealed the country only produced 3,000
155 mm artillery shells per month of
which roughly half is sent to support
Ukraine's war effort we are winning with
that being said at the beginning of the
war in Ukraine the French production was
only 1,000 shells per month but in the
grand scheme of things Russia is
producing about 250,000 artillery
Munitions per month this means the
Russian industry overtakes the French
monthly artillery production in roughly
30 minutes French TV also admitted that
there are French military advisers
working with the Ukrainian Army staff to
plan operations plus the additional
presence of France Special Forces on the
ground but as you can expect very little
is known about that we also know that
NATO and France are somewhat involved in
military operations in the Black Sea
officially only for intelligence
gathering for example on the 21st of
February 20124 a French e3f long range
radar detection aircraft operated in the
Black Sea and same thing happened on the
12th of March following the leaked
conversation of German generals we
learned that British and French
Personnel are operating cruise missiles
donated to Ukraine waa big surprise who
would have thought about that on top of
that there were roughly 300 French
military instructors in Poland it was
reported that they can supervise and
train roughly 600 Ukrainian recruits per
month to be honest sometimes I even
wonder what they're teaching them in
this documentary by the French TV we see
this unit clearly struggling to deploy
storm and clear a very basic trench
network with no enemies inside or return
fire their instructor admitted that the
soldiers are too grouped up they don't
know how to maneuver and how they would
all be Ka or injured in a real battle a
direct military intervention looks very
promising now the Russians also push
stories of hundreds of French Foreign
volunteers fighting in Ukraine like in
January when Russia launched a missile
strike against a hotel in har claiming
that 60 French Foreign volunteers had
been Kia obviously we don't know about
the exact number but it's very possible
that there were indeed foreign
Volunteers in that building when Russian
telegram talks about the maintenance
teams for the damag Caesar
self-propelled artillery to be French
technicians as of now we can confirm 14
French volunteers Ka in Ukraine but
obviously if special forces are involved
this could be higher on the 2nd of
February 2024 the BBC wrote two French
volunteers Ka in Russian drone strike
maon confirms we don't know who they
were or what they were doing there
what's interesting is that shortly after
the Keef independent reported foreign
volunteers NGO workers and Embassy staff
are banned from entering parts of hon o
Blas without permission from the
authorities so all this is the current
French involvement in Ukraine but what
if the French army actually decided to
intervene this is what zilinski said
about this possibility on French
national
TV now what if the front collapses like
we said in the introduction NATO has
Mission egg deployed in Romania the
1,000 strong taxk force is led by a
French Commander they act as an
observation force that could be
strengthened and upgraded into a quick
reaction Brigade thing is we're actually
talking about a multi National battle
group not all 1,000 are French soldiers
in March 2023 a Recon platoon of 27
troops from Luxembourg joined them so
basically their entire Army and in July
2023 a mechanized company from Belgium
came to reinforce them composed of 300
soldiers and 24 piranha armored fighting
vehicles on the 25th of July four Caesar
self-propelled howitzers were added to
the contingent technically if the French
jump in the Belgian contingent and these
27 guys from Luxembourg will have to go
in as well and on top of that we can ask
ourselves how many soldiers can France
realistically deploy theoretical
strength 1,000 military personnel but we
can definitely expect this battle group
to be strengthened in the following
months if there is really an intent to
push towards Odessa perhaps the Belgian
and luxembourgish contingents could be
replaced by French troops like units of
the French Foreign Legion for example
realistically we can expect the French
mission to be composed of at least 1,500
to 2,000 men this would be equivalent to
two jti groupal tactic andam or an
English combin arms battle group from an
operational perspective this task force
would depart from the Romanian border it
would have to push 230 km to adessa
along the m34 road through mova hoping
all roads are intact and that no spns or
transnistrian troops blocked the path of
approach there was also a faster coastal
route but Russian missile strikes
damaged the existing bridge then the
French task force would need to advance
another 50 kilometers up to the tiul
Estuary why number one this would
provide a natural water barrier to enemy
columns number two it would protect the
e95 highway linking adessa with the rest
of the country however this means in
theory the French Detachment of 1,000 to
2,000 troops would have to defend and
cover a front of 60 km on their own
option two would be to station them
somewhere around the svarovski district
in order to stop Russian colums from
entering the city the overall objective
could be similar as to what the Russians
did in Kosovo in 1999 essentially on the
night of June 11th Russia sent a
peacekeeping force of 30 armed Vehicles
carrying 250 troops straight to the
Pristina International Airport before
the NATO contingent could get there this
move by the Russian troops caught NATO
by surprise and forced them to negotiate
directly with Russia
now the $1 million question is is the
Russian army ready to walk over the
bodies of French soldiers to get to
adessa all these plans option one option
two they're beautiful but with what
troops here from Lon on the 30th of
January 2024 France begins a drastic
reduction in its military personnel in
its bases in West Africa so we can see
France is repatriating military
personnel to the mainland perhaps for
read deployment to the Eastern theater
the big problem of the French military
is their projection of force
capabilities at this moment France is
said to be able to deploy 15,000
soldiers over the span of multiple weeks
if not months in theory this
expeditionary Force could be equipped
with 1,000 Vehicles including 140 lir
main battle tanks 130 Jaguars wield
armored fighting Vehicles 800 other ifvs
and 48 Caesar self-propelled artillery
units as you can expect these numbers
are extremely optimistic other analysts
believe that only 10,000 men could
actually be deployed meanwhile in 2014
former Chief of Staff General Rak Madu
said that the ground forces could only
realistically deploy as many as 7,000
French soldiers abroad remember that the
peak strength of French deployment in
the Sahel voic
5,500 troops with a very limited number
of armed vehicles and artillery now
we're not even talking about the
logistics of this entire operation just
look at the distance between the French
border and the Romanian Ukrainian border
we're talking about 2,000 kilometers
there's no way France can do this on
their own NATO will have to back them up
we have to remember that in 2011 during
the French intervention against Gaddafi
and Libya NATO had to take over an
operation that French forces were simply
unable to carry out Alone 2 years later
during the 2013 military intervention in
Mali France asked its allies to
strengthen their logistical Aid mainly
with transport aircraft in 2022 Leo
wrote French withdrawal from Mali
logistical headache ahead the logistical
maneuver consisted of evacuating 2,500
military personnel and this proved to be
extremely complex but simply without us
and European logistic support operation
cant oner would be impossible now to
make the situation even more complicated
on March 10th French president Emanuel M
announced the opening of a permanent
military mission in chiso in the coming
months the two countries signed a
defense agreement on March 7th corer
International reported once again
creating surprise France gives
guarantees to mova against Russia so
France a country that can't even deploy
10,000 soldiers abroad is now handing
over defense agreements to everyone like
wiy Wonka and his golden tickets let's
not forget that in September 2023 the
movan Army purchased a groundmaster 200
air defense radar for 14.5 million EUR
from France this means there could be an
alternative plan with the deployment of
French troops in mova and if you ask me
this is where things get really
interesting if there's one French
Detachment positioned in Romania and
let's say another one equally strong
deployed in mova while their official
mission could be to rush towards Odessa
if the Russians approach but this could
also be a decoy when in fact they would
concentrate against transnistria and
that's how they could storm Terrace po
take over the entire territory and give
it back to mova one objective could be
to secure the kobasa Ammunition Depot
containing 20,000 tons of Soviet era
weapons this could be done in
cooperation with movan army units that
have been intensifying military
exercises on the border with
transnistria the big question is the
following what if fighting erupts
between French and Russian forces this
escalation could lead the world straight
to a nuclear war we have to remember
that the doctrine of former French
president dul regarding nuclear weapons
was to use them only to preserve the
territorial Integrity of the Homeland
and I don't think that fighting in
Ukraine falls into this category
meanwhile some analysts believe that
macron's warmonger attitude is only for
short-term opportunistic political goals
you see there will be European
parliamentary elections in June 2024
things are not looking good for macron's
party according to the latest polls it's
the for right opposition party RN that
will come out Victorious with a 12% lead
over macon's party that's huge so what
could a hawkish politician do during a
parliamentary debate prime minister
Gabrielle atal fell short of accusing
the far right to position of treason he
said being protin is simply being pro
Putin just like you support for Ukraine
the parties which vote against will play
into Putin's hands thanks General vant
Deport even the conservatives riled for
for the small electoral tactics of the
head of state but showed support for Kei
nonetheless actually this is what the
party chief of the conservatives said I
reiterated the Republicans total support
for Ukraine but on the other hand I
repeated our complete opposition to the
commitment of ground
troops so by claiming to send troops in
Ukraine Ma and the French establishments
can vilify opposition parties and label
them as traitors cowards a of the
Kremlin or all three so let's see if
this grandio military intervention is
still on the table after the summer now
as for the history lesson at the end of
World War I the French government was
getting concerned by the rise of the
Bolsheviks in the Russian Empire in
December 1918 it was decided to launch
an expedition towards Ukraine to support
the Russian white armies in 1981 J Kim
Man Holland summarized the Expedition
for most western historians the French
military intervention appeared to have
been badly organized ized insufficiently
supplied and illd defined in its
objectives politically the operation
made sense however before it started
many French generals believe it was not
possible militarily speaking they prefer
to arm local anti-bolshevik forces and
limit French involvement to advisers
even beralo the general in charge of the
Expedition quickly realized it was
doomed when he was tasked to secure all
of Ukraine with only three divisions
instead of the 12 promised and one of
the three division Visions was suffering
from influenza epidemics so in exchange
they received some Greek reinforcements
however who were not very keen to be
under French command morale of the
French troops was low they were promised
demobilization after years of war and
they just wanted to return home and the
cold weather of Eastern Europe was not
suitable for Colonial troops overall
most of the French soldiers didn't even
know why they were fighting on top of
that there were several Pro Bolshevik
mutinies the expedition in Ukraine came
under false assumtions in reality the
white Army of the volunteers was far
from United and showed little will to
fight the local population resented Ally
intervention as they preferred the
Bolsheviks to the white Army unable to
stop the advancing Bolshevik troops the
French contingent abandoned Odessa in
March 1919 the French military
intervention in Ukraine was a sobering
lesson in the Perils of intervening in
another nation's Civil War that's all I
have for you today let me know in the
comments section what you thought of my
analysis if you're new to this channel
make sure to like And subscribe and if
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