Shocking Math: How Bitcoin Could Reach $43M (full breakdown)
Summary
TLDRThe video makes a data-driven case that Bitcoin could reach a market capitalization of $43 billion. It analyzes Bitcoin's potential as a store of value to replace gold and other assets like real estate and fine art. Based on this, if Bitcoin captured 50% of gold's market cap and small percentages of other assets, 1 Bitcoin could be worth $10 million. The video walks through Bitcoin's historical prices and evolutionary path as a currency, making probability-based predictions using sources like developer evaluations and Wall Street analyses. It advises viewers to invest now before mass adoption drives prices over $100k in 1-2 years and $1 million+ by 2030.
Takeaways
- 😲 Bitcoin has a potential to reach $43 billion based on probability and market adoption math.
- 😎 Bitcoin is evolving to become a store of value and competing with gold and other assets.
- 📈 The total global store of value assets is estimated at $900 trillion currently.
- 😮 If Bitcoin captures even small percentages of these markets, 1 BTC could reach $10 million.
- ⏳ Bitcoin's evolution to global money will likely take 5-7 years.
- 🚀 Bitcoin price targets: $150K in next 18 months, $1M by 2030, $1B by 2038.
- 🤔 Bitcoin has continuously beaten the odds and continues gaining adoption and trust.
- 💰 Allocate at least some portfolio exposure to BTC based on personal risk tolerance.
- 🔐 Secure and custody BTC yourself using a hardware wallet rather than leaving on an exchange.
- 👍🏻 Getting some Bitcoin ‘just in case’ it succeeds makes sense per its inventor Satoshi Nakamoto.
Q & A
What is the predicted future value of Bitcoin according to the analysis in the video?
-The analysis predicts Bitcoin could reach a value of $43 billion in the future.
What is Bitcoin competing against to become a dominant store of value?
-Bitcoin is competing against traditional store of value assets like gold, real estate, fine art, bonds etc. to become a dominant global store of value.
What was the past relationship between the US dollar and gold?
-Historically, the US dollar was backed by and pegged to gold. $1 US dollar was equal to a fixed amount of gold.
What is the predicted potential future price per bitcoin based on its share of global store of value assets?
-If bitcoin captured 50% share of global store of value assets, its potential future price could reach $10 million per bitcoin.
What is the evolutionary path for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin?
-The predicted path is collectible -> store of value -> medium of exchange -> unit of account.
What is the predicted timeframe for bitcoin reaching widespread adoption levels?
-Bitcoin is predicted to reach maturity as a mainstream asset around 2050.
What future bitcoin prices have prominent investors predicted?
-Predictions range from $1 million per bitcoin by 2030 (Chamath Palihapitiya) to $1 billion by 2038 (Fidelity Investments).
What percentage of investment portfolio is recommended for bitcoin allocation?
-Recommendations range from 2-5% (Wall Street) to 30-60% for high conviction investors.
How can investors secure their bitcoin holdings?
-Bitcoin should be stored in secure digital wallets, like hardware wallets, to maintain control and security.
What is dollar cost averaging?
-Dollar cost averaging involves making regular bitcoin purchases over time to smooth out volatility in price.
Outlines
😀What is Bitcoin and what market is it disrupting
Paragraph 1 discusses what Bitcoin is - a new technology and digital form of peer-to-peer electronic cash that is winning as a store of value. It competes against other store of value assets like gold rather than payment networks. The market it disrupts is value itself as the world digitizes.
😉Bitcoin established as digital gold and growing faster than physical gold
Paragraph 2 shows how Bitcoin is establishing itself as digital gold, with institutions like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs saying it will compete with or surpass gold. Bitcoin ETF inflows are much faster than gold ETFs, establishing Bitcoin as the new digital gold.
🤔Historical context - how gold and dollars were linked before abondoning gold standard
Paragraph 3 provides historical context by explaining how dollars were pegged to gold until 1971 when the gold standard was abandoned. It shows how much less money would be in circulation if the gold standard had continued, providing context for why some want to return to a gold-backed currency.
💰 Calculating Bitcoin's potential by comparing to global store of value assets
Paragraph 4 calculates Bitcoin's potential by comparing it to all global store of value assets like gold, real estate, fine art, etc. which total $900 trillion. Even modest share gains of these markets lead to huge potential Bitcoin market cap and prices.
🔮 If not Bitcoin, then what? No good alternatives to sound money.
Paragraph 5 makes the case that alternatives like returning to gold or central bank digital currencies don't fix the core problem of unlimited money printing. With no trust left in the system, Bitcoin seems one of the more probable solutions for sound money.
📈 Review of predictions - from Bitcoin developers and prominent investors
Paragraph 6 reviews various predictions from early Bitcoin developers like Hal Finney and prominent investors like Chamath who see Bitcoin reaching millions or even billions in value based on its network adoption and role as a hedge against unreliability of leaders.
💡What percentage should you allocate to Bitcoin? Secure and hold.
Final paragraph discusses conviction levels and what percentage of assets investors should allocate to Bitcoin based on their belief in various price predictions. It recommends securing Bitcoin in a hardware wallet and holding for the long term.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Store of value
💡Probability
💡Evolutionary process
💡Market capitalization
💡Digital gold
💡Confidence level
💡Custody
💡Dollar cost averaging
💡Inflation hedge
Highlights
Bitcoin has beaten the odds over and over; it's been called dead hundreds of times yet keeps coming back stronger
Bitcoin is crossing the chasm as BlackRock and Fidelity add millions of people; 3 US presidential candidates openly discuss it
Bitcoin competes as a store of value against gold and other assets - the market it competes in is value itself
Gold has failed as money in the digital age; we need instant transactions and settlement
Central bank digital currencies don't fix unlimited money printing and debt
If not Bitcoin, what other solution is there in a decentralized world without trust?
At reasonable market share, 1 Bitcoin could reach $10 million
Fiat currency is a failed 52 year experiment; there's no way it continues
Bitcoin is currently crossing the chasm from store of value to medium of exchange
The Bitcoin revolution will likely play out by 2050
Early Bitcoin developer Hal Finney predicted $10 million Bitcoin based on global wealth
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts $1 million Bitcoin by 2040
Fidelity predicts $1 billion Bitcoin by 2038 based on Metcalfe's Law
Bitcoin goes through boom and bust cycles, but stays on an overall growth trend
Consider putting 1-5% of net worth in Bitcoin as disaster insurance
Transcripts
the shocking math how Bitcoin will reach
$43 billion we're going to break down
the math now in life there are no such
thing as certainties there's only
probabilities and we bet on those
probabilities every single day that's
exactly what markets are and Bitcoin has
beaten the odds over and over it's been
called Dead hundreds of times it's
crashed dozens of times and yet it keeps
coming back stronger every single time
and now today it's Crossing what we call
the chasm as we see black rock and F
adding millions of people we have three
US presidential candidates openly
discussing Bitcoin and so today for
those of you with an open mind and are
willing to understand that again
everything in life is a probability I'm
going to break down the math I'm going
to break down the future potential of
Bitcoin like it's never been done before
I'm going to show you the odds I'm going
to show you the path it will take we're
going to look at the different price
points along the way the time frames and
of course how to play this if you're a
huge Bitcoin skeptic or you're a DieHard
Bitcoin believer either way this is for
you so let's go all right welcome back
if you're new to the channel my name is
Mark Moss I make these videos of course
to change the way you think about money
because almost everything you've learned
is wrong and it's changing we're talking
about Bitcoin we're talking about a new
form of money and most people don't
understand it because as my good friend
Jeff Booth who will hear about later he
likes to say that it's very hard to see
a new system to understand a new system
when you're stuck in an existing system
so look I get it it's difficult so have
an open mind now if you want the short
answer where is it going I'm going to
break the down the math to how we get to
403 billion and for some of us in our
lifetime all right I'm going to break
down the math the path all that but
first I want to tell you a story last
night I was watching a brand new TV show
I think it was called the tracker it's
not super good it was okay it was the
very first episode that I saw but
there's this guy and he goes and finds
people like people that have rewards and
bounties things like that but he would
throughout the show he kept saying uh if
we go now we have a 95% chance but if we
wait an hour we only have a 5% chance if
I hurry up and get you out now I think
we have a 50% chance but if we wait and
he kept talking about probabilities all
the time we have a probability of this
now if we wait my probability drops to
this and probably I don't know 3 four
five times throughout the show he would
do that and that's how life is so the
first thing I want to let you know is
that all right so the problem that I see
too many people making is they think
very linear everything's black or white
it's this or that there's no way this
can happen or there's no way this can
happen and that's not how life works
okay there's a world of possibilities
everything is possible and then there's
probabilities or percentages that we
think that this can happen so you may be
the biggest Bitcoin skeptic in the world
but still ask yourself this question are
you one 100% sure 100% guaranteed
there's no way Bitcoin will ever succeed
from here and of course the answer is no
you can't say that now you might say
there's a 90% chance okay great then
that 10% you might want to listen all
right does that make sense so think
about things in terms of the probability
and let me break this down for you in
what's going to be a master class so the
short answer is like I said 43 billion
if you just want to shut it off right
now you could have just read the title
but let me break down the math for you
but more importantly like I said how
does it get there and when when does it
happen I bet those are the questions
that you want to know and that's what
I'm going to break down okay so if we
start to break this down the very first
thing we have to understand is what is
it when in Silicon Valley about 15 years
ago when they were trying to raise money
for Uber they would go hey I have this
new app on building I want to raise a
100 million and they'd say what is it
right I'm a venture capital investor
I've been investing in V Venture cap for
probably over a dozen years now that's
what we do what is it so first of all
what is bitcoin is it a brand new
technology sure yeah it's it's it's
technology what is it disrupting so okay
it's an app Uber is an app what is it
disrupting it's disrupting the taxi
industry the limo industry the ride
share industry and then we look at how
big those markets are and then we look
at how much we think we can pull from
those we're going to break the math down
in a a minute but first what is it so
yes it's a brand new technology it's an
app what do it doing well it's sort of
like money a medium of exchange the
white paper says it's peer-to-peer cash
electronic cash so we exchange it for
money a medium of exchange it's also a
store of value as we call an sov all
right now it is winning the war of store
of value which eventually could evolve
into the next stage I'm going to break
that evolutionary path down for you so
you can see the time frame but let's
just talk about the store value because
I want to simplify this and I know it
sounds crazy but I'm going to make it
sound very conservative so we could
overshoot it so let's just talk about
the store of value right now all right
so what we can see uh many headlines I
can continue to pull them Goldman Sachs
one of the biggest financial
institutions in in the United States and
the world says Bitcoin will not could
not should but will compete with gold as
store of value this is Goldman Sachs we
know that Larry Fink the largest asset
manager in the world from Black Rock now
went on TV a month ago saying that
Bitcoin is a a flight to safety right so
it's a store of value we know this we
can see Kathy Wood who runs one of the
biggest Tech funds in uh Wall Street she
says that Bitcoin describing Bitcoin has
both so it's both it's it's multiple
things it's more things than we'll know
in the future both a store value and a
riskof asset meaning we use it to store
our wealth but we also use it to um when
there's times of risk or high inflation
would emphasized that when compared to
Gold the upward trajectory hints at the
possibility of overtaking gold as a more
valuable investment in the future okay
so you can see this from any number of
people it is a store of value it's
winning the store of value Bitcoin is
like digital Gold All right but it's
better than gold I'm not going to break
down all the ways in this video if you
want a separate video comparing Bitcoin
to Gold let me know I can make another
video on that but you have to understand
that it doesn't compete compete directly
with gold because it's better from that
standpoint and again the markets tell us
that that's not just my opinion if
you're a gold bug I am too I've been a
gold bug since 2008 I own gold I talk
about gold all the time but you still
have to understand this don't be mad
this is what the markets tell us as a
matter of fact we can see here the pace
of inflows now we have these new Bitcoin
ETFs so the markets are now voting the
pace of money going into the ETFs is
remarkable in just 15 days in only 15
days the first 15 days open the Bitcoin
ETFs cont raed over $25
billion uh comparable to the market cap
of the largest gold producer barold
within 15 days more money went into
these Bitcoin ETFs than the entire
market cap of the largest gold producer
think about that we can see right here
this unparalleled growth to the second
largest assets under management AUM
Among Us commodity ETFs establishing
them as the new digital gold so they
surpass silver and they are R they are
growing way faster than gold ever did
and they're catch catching up to gold at
the rate they're at they could overtake
gold in the next year all right so the
markets are telling us this it's not
just commentators all right but we have
to also understand as a store of value
it's not competing in an industry right
so Uber was competing against taxis Uber
was competing against limousines Bitcoin
as a store of value doesn't compete with
Industries it's not competing with Visa
or PayPal for people to make those
comparisons is ridiculous it's a store
of value so it competes against other
store of value assets that's what's
scoring that's what it's actually
competing against and we can see that
the market that it's going after the
market it's competing in is value itself
okay so it's not it is a new technology
but it's not Visa it's not MasterCard
it's not Facebook it's competing against
other store value assets such as gold
for Value itself all right hopefully
that makes sense now we also have to
realize that the world has changed a lot
and what's happened is is as the world
has rapidly changed money and our
technology into store of value has not
so we are in the digital Revolution I'm
sure you know that by now you're
watching me over the Internet so of
course you're part of the digital
Revolution what we've seen is that while
the digital revolution has digitized
everything music movies
books videos everything's become
digitized our money hasn't and actually
this cool image all these images were
created by chat gbt pretty interesting
and this shows us how all of these
technologies have become digitized books
movies music Etc and the last thing to
be digitized that hasn't yet it's
happening right now is digitizing value
digitizing wealth that's what we're
doing right now the and it's a monetary
Evolution we have to understand that
every what we use as money today well
gold was money for 5,000 years has been
an evolutionary process and this is the
next step the digitization of value this
is where it's competing that's how big
the market is okay now let me just break
this down to something that you can
understand so we can have something to
build off of okay so as I said gold was
money for 5,000 years right so at the
end of the day we don't want money I
know it's a shocking statement to make I
know you want a lot of money no we don't
want money what we want is the goods and
services that money buys us we want food
we want clothes we want house we want to
travel things like that we want the
goods and services gold or money is what
we use to get those things things and we
can hold our value our wealth our energy
in that money until we're ready to
deploy it to get those goods and servic
that we want so if goods and services
are wealth and money is a way to acquire
it then what we do is we take all the
goods and services of the world the
wealth divided by all the gold that's
the price it's a unit of account
everything is priced in gold or priced
in money so think about this gold was
money it was the store of value for
5,000 years it was the unit of account
everything was priced in it now gold
because of Technology the world started
evolving and we had global trade taking
off globalization but Gold's very slow
if I want to pay from California
somebody in New York with gold it takes
a long time to get that gold there so
what we did is we put the gold in the
banks and the banks then used a ledger
to say Hey you know from California now
the guy in New York now on The Ledger
shows he has the gold the gold didn't
actually move they just changed the
Ledger that was a new piece of
technology all right but that didn't
actually solve anything and so what we
did is we created paper dollars Fiat
money paper dollars that represented the
gold in the bank so we had $1 us was
equal to 20 ounces of gold let me show
you the chart this is the gold price
chart for the last 100 years so what we
can see since the 1800s $1 $1 us equal
20 I'm sorry $2 equal 1 ooun of gold
then in 1933 I've talked about this
extensively because all the gold went
into the bank the government govern just
took it all They seized it all they
don't want to say They seized it they
they bought it from you forcibly then
what they did is they revalued it to now
be
$35 for 1 ounce of gold you can see that
20 and then it was 35 this whole time
now this red line here is where we ended
the gold standard and we no longer had
relation to the price of gold but the
reason why I want you to understand this
for right now is because at this time
all the dollars in existence were
divided by all the
gold and it was $20 for every 1 oce and
then it was $35 cuz they printed way too
many of them that's why they had to
seize the gold then they took then it
was $35 for every 1 ounce of gold you're
understanding this but again in 1971 we
left the gold standard and you can see
by this chart right here is where we
left now what I did is I took a a trend
line and you can see the trend line we
were on and if we hadn't left the gold
standard here we would have about this
much money in circulation today this is
the M2 chart this shows how much dollars
are in circulation okay so we would have
about this much but of course they would
have needed to get more gold but then
1971 we got a new trend line and that
took us to here right around here in the
year 2000 we got a new trend line that
takes us to here
2008 we got a new trend line that takes
us to here in 2020 we have a new trend
line and look at that Trend that we're
on here's the problem
they've added more of those paper
currencies but they didn't add more gold
because of course we're no longer on a
gold
system which is why you can see this
right here all right but you have to
understand this to understand where
we're going we had all the dollars in
existence divided by all the gold and
that's gone but that's the way it works
and we have to go back to it we are in a
52 we're in about a 52-year experiment
that's gone horribly wrong I'll show you
how it's gone horribly wrong in a minute
okay so now that you understand that you
hear a lot of people talking about maybe
going back to the gold standard the rise
of bricks bricks are going to launch
their own goldback currency you've heard
me talk about that extensively you have
Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff talking
about we're going to go back to gold and
the reason why is because gold was money
for 5,000 years for 50 years we've tried
this little Fiat experiment it's it's
failed horribly wrong and so the only
way that governments will get trust back
into fiat currency is to back it with
something like gold again you've heard
that many times so this is how this
would work let me break it down in the
United States there's about2 trillion of
currency of paper of fiat currency 20
trillion the US supposedly I don't know
if I believe this holds 8,000 tons of
gold so then what you would do is you
would take the uh 8,000 tons is 282
million ounces so you take the 20
trillion divided by the 282 million
ounces and that would give you a new
gold price of
$70,000 per ounce of gold at the $20 per
ounce of gold up until 1933 the 35 up
until 1971 that's how it worked and to
go back to a gold standard 100% backed
this would be the new math that's why
gold bugs want this to go back to a gold
standard and they want to hold gold
because they think their $2,000 an ounce
gold will go to 70,000 an ounce be
pretty amazing if that happened although
Bitcoin is going to do better I'll break
the math down now we also have to think
globally all right because this is not
just the US the US dollar is the global
Reserve currency we also have the euro
dollar going on so we have to think
globally so if we think globally there's
about $87 trillion globally and about we
don't really know cuz China doesn't
really report it properly but
approximately
187,000 tons of gold in the whole world
all the gold in the world that's ever
been brought above ground is still above
ground it's not really a consumable good
I think all the gold in the world fits
in like a football field it's not even
that much 187,000 tons which is 6
billion ounces so we take the 87
trillion of currency divided by the 6
billion ounces would give us about a
$113,000 price per gold does that make
sense okay so now that we've gone
through that math you're ready to
understand the next step in the process
okay so you remember we've made a couple
cases here gold was what we used to
measure or Price things in wealth is
goods and services not gold wealth is
the goods and services the gold is what
it was priced in and so we had to divide
the goods and services by the wealth by
the gold all right so now what other
Global assets are there how do we
measure how much goods and services are
out there how much wealth is out there
well there's a couple ways we can look
at this all of these Global assets are
well we're looking at the global assets
right now for this this math in store of
value assets there's lots of assets but
we don't store our wealth in all types
of assets so just for this exercise
being conservative I know this sounds
crazy we're only looking at what we call
store value assets things that you would
put your money into such as gold is a
store of value Asset real estate sure I
have a house there but I park my wealth
in real estate as well bonds stocks
things like that okay so if we look at
that here's a chart from Jesse crasis uh
he he did a amazing write up on this
we're going to link to it in the
description down below if you want to
read his write up and breakdown of this
but we have store of value assets right
here gold uh cars other Collectibles so
rich people buy really old collectible
cars things like that they store their
wealth in there one of my buddies down
the streets got a couple Mustangs that
are worth millions of dollars pretty
cool it doesn't drive them Fine Art of
course stock market right we buy stock
to put our wealth in there real estate
like I said not just your home but other
real estate that you invest to bonds and
of course money if we add those up we
have 122 trillion in Gold 6 trillion in
Collectibles 18 trillion in Fine Art 115
uh trillion and you do the math it
totals $900 trillion if we add all that
up now again back to the Uber example
Uber is going to disrupt taxes limos
Vans what percentage do we think it can
get from each of those markets so
conservatively do we think Bitcoin could
capture 50% of the gold market cap I
think so Goldman Sachs says it's going
to overtake it so 50% that puts Bitcoin
at 6 trillion cars other Collectibles uh
it's not going to take the whole thing
people like cars people like
Collectibles people like Fine Art but
could it take 5% I think that's
reasonable uh Fine Art 5% sure stock
market 15% I think reasonable real
estate 15% okay bonds 30% money 30% that
brings us to $200
trillion just at those levels and this
could happen over the next 5 6 7 years
all right so I'll get more to the time
frame we'll break this math down a
little bit more but that would put one
Bitcoin to $10 million it's a big number
$10 million just for getting these
pieces now we're not even adding all the
other use cases the money exchanging
we're not including all the Technologies
being built on bitcoin we're just
talking about store of value assets only
all right so you can see that math now
let's keep going here now remember
there's no such thing as certainties
there's only probabilities so is this a
probable outcome well what we do know
it's pretty much certain 99% certain
that Fiat is dead Fiat is crashing Fiat
was an experiment we're 52 years into
this experiment 5,000 years of using
sound money 52 years of Fiat and it's
dead it's over there's pretty much no
way I can continue from here like I said
you're going to have to figure out a way
to bring some um trust back into the
system so what options do we have well I
did a video a couple months ago in
Amsterdam or I gave a talk at a
conference in Amsterdam a couple months
ago let's go ahead and just play this
clip so you can hear it we can see the
system is Shifting if you're paying
attention they're buying gold the
problem is it already failed before we
live in a information world today we
need money to transfer at the speed of
our transactions over the internet and
gold can't do that gold requires trust
since gold can't transfer immediately it
requires someone to hold a ledger and if
someone's holding The Ledger we must
trust that person but trust his loss so
if that doesn't work if we don't go back
to Commodities where do we go well the
next solution is Central Bank digital
currencies cuz that should fix
everything right the cbdcs seem to be
the next logical step but the problem is
I would call this not de Evolution I'd
call it zero Revolution because it's
basically the exact same thing that we
have right
now it still allows the central banks to
print unlimited amounts of money so if
we have a problem of endless money
printing then we need to fix it we need
a solution that has a fixed Supply
doesn't allow anybody to have in this
money Printing and in a multi-polar
world where there we're no longer in the
current monetary order or the current
International order that we have today a
US Le order with a US dollar Reserve
currency in a paper Fiat monetary system
moving to a multi-polar
world how does the world move forward
when there is no trust in a world where
trust is gone it's almost like we need a
decentralized ledger that's trustless
and so in this new world order that
we're going into the question is left if
not Bitcoin then what all right so you
can hear from there like the options are
one we go back to Gold but gold already
failed because it's old technology we
live in a world of instant transactions
and we need instant settlement but gold
can never do that without adding debt
and adding trust in the system which
there is no trust in the system anymore
so gold doesn't work the other option is
well a cbdc but that's basically still
Fiat and the problem is the unlimited
money printing in the debt so that
doesn't fix it either so as I put in the
question at the end of that presentation
if not Bitcoin then what so it's not
guaranteed but is it at least probable
do you think there's a 20% chance that
people move to it I mean we're certainly
seeing that happen now is there a 30 40
50% chance we'll come back to that in a
second but let's take a look at this
let's look at some of the time frames
has happening on now remember I said
this is an evolutionary process one of
the biggest problems that people have
with understanding this is they expect
way too much too soon imagine you and I
walking through a forest of redwoods and
we find this little tree like this big
and I'm like oh my gosh look at this
little tree look how cool this is can
you imagine that this tree one day is
going to be as big as these other trees
and you're like oh that's stupid Mark
how that tree will never be that big
look how small it is how could it ever
grow that big and I'm like what but give
it time give it give it a couple decades
like it'll get there right so you have
to understand things take time and
there's an evolutionary path that things
have to go down another image by chat
GPT uh showing this evolutionary path so
what am I talking about let's take a
look at this evolutionary path so
remember as I said money if you study
thousands of years of history of money
rocks feathers seashells gold you
understand it was always a mergent and
it was always an evolution what happens
is it starts right here as a collectible
oh this is a pretty cool rock I think
I'm going to keep it it's a collectible
oh look at this baseball card this
Pokémon card I like this I'll collect it
now there's a lot of things that become
Collectibles but if maybe sometimes they
could evolve to the next stage which
could become a store of value so
baseball cards are stores of value some
people store millions of dollars in
baseball cards Pokemon cards watches not
all collectibles make the evolution to
store value but a lot do now if maybe if
they have the right attributes of money
portable divisible durable recognizable
things like that then maybe it could
evolve to the next stage from a from a
store value to a medium of exchange okay
so now it's big enough it's a big enough
asset class it's widely accepted it has
the right attri rut like I said and now
people use it as medium exchange and
then maybe if potentially if it if it
could we could evolve to the next stage
which is a unit of account which means
everything's priced in that thing now
right now everything's priced in dollars
oil is priced in dollars Gold's priced
in dollars most of the World prices
things in dollars because it is the
currency of the world now some countries
have other currencies but you get my
point you're still pricing it in that
currency so this is the evolutionary
path I think we are somewhere right
around here we've already checked all
these boxes and we have a little bit
ways to go now what time frame are we
looking at all right I showed you the
path what is the time frame now that
evolutionary path doesn't mean it's
guaranteed remember life is about
probabilities but we can continue to
watch that now over what time frame now
when you look back through technological
revolutions you realize they happen
about every 50 years you've heard me
talk extensively about technology Cycles
so this is a path um this is where
Bitcoin started right here and we are
sitting somewhere right about here right
now we're in this path you're not too
late we still have all this to go right
here before we start to level out and I
think we really see all this happen by
about 2050 so I don't know where you're
at in your stage of life right now you
could be alive to see this happen now
none of this is
guaranteed but this is the most probable
outcome going back to Old technology of
gold or what that's the question and you
can see we're rapidly heading for this
now we're literally living through this
we're literally watching this revolution
we're watching this financial Revolution
cycle end right in front of us okay
great so now you understand what it's
attacking uh value itself you understand
uh that's evolutionary path and what
that process looks like you understand
the time frame now let's talk about the
prices now I talked about 43 billion you
know in 50 60 years from now but where
is it in a year from now or four or five
years from now or seven or eight years
from now let's talk about that for now
all right so howf was one of the main
developers that developed Bitcoin he
worked with Satoshi Nakamoto which yes
nobody knows who he is but we know lots
of the other developers that worked on
it with Satoshi including halin Adam
back nck Zabo Etc so halin was a
developer now back in 2009 when it was
released we just got a whole bunch of uh
satoshi's emails released to the public
we can see this was January 10th 2009
and he said here announcing the first
release of Bitcoin pretty cool but we
can see through those emails I sort of
summarized it here so you can see it
easier how finny predicted um $22
million Bitcoin this was back in 2009
when it was first released he said not
based on mere speculation but rather on
a thoughtful analysis of bitcoin's
potential as a global payment system so
he's backing into the math sort of the
same way I am the collective value of
Bitcoin would align with the total
wealth of the world wealth of the world
divided by the asset unit of account
which he estimated to be within the
range of1 trillion to $300 trillion that
was in 2009 today it's about $900
trillion by dividing this value Among
The Limited supply of 21 million Bitcoin
finny came up with a 22 um million price
per Bitcoin that was in 2009 when it was
first invented you could have picked it
up for a couple of pennies but he saw
that Vision that we're rapidly heading
towards what about uh let's hear from
chamath chamath is a prolific investor
on in Silicon Valley early early early
into Facebook billionaire let's hear
what he had to say Bitcoin that falls
into that category because that's what
that is
39,000 uh where's it going I mean can
you play the clip in 2012 and 13 when it
was at 200 and everybody was laughing at
me on CNBC every time I would talk about
Bitcoin um where is it going it's
probably going to 100 than 150 than
200,000 in what period I don't know five
years 10 years but it's going there and
the reason is because every time you see
all of this stuff happening it just
reminds you that wow our leaders are not
as trustworthy and reliable as they used
to be and so just in case we really do
need to have some kind of you know
insurance we can keep under our pillow
that gives us some access to an
uncorrelated hedge all right now mind
you this video is from 2021 so he's
talking about it going to 100 150 all
the way up to a million dollar which is
certainly doing he says a million dollar
by 2040 that's the time frame he's on um
what else we have we have Fidelity
Fidelity is I think the second largest
asset manager in the US they do a lot of
research on bitcoin it's the second
largest Bitcoin ETF they predict a
billion dollars for one Bitcoin by 2038
2038 the director of global macro
Fidelity Investments thinks a single
Bitcoin could reach 1 billion by the
year
2038 a lot of what he's done is rooted
in and he's come up this from a bunch of
angles specifically he says it's rooted
in meta's law which is that a network
continues to grow faster and faster and
faster becomes more valuable and he says
it'll grow to about 1 million per
Bitcoin by 2030 so 1 million by 2030 1
billion by
2038 based off of that now fidell like I
said they put out a ton of good research
and data on this one of which is this
meta's law and you can see how this
price Arc is working it doesn't go up
hyperbolically forever right it doesn't
go up straight line it starts to taper
off but yet it still goes up we have a
million doll Bitcoin you know right
about here and you can see that they
have this other chart right here that I
think is really good Fidelity put
together you can get all this
information directly off of their
website um but this shows the different
analoges so this is the price the
Bitcoin price Arc right here and I know
for the Bitcoin Skeptics I know it
crashes right so it goes super high and
then it crashes all the way back down
and then it it stays below the trend
line and then it goes Super super high
and then it crashes all the way down
again and it stays below the trend line
it crashes it goes super high and it
crashes all the way down now some people
go well why do wouldn't I just sell here
and buy right here sure you can
certainly try that or you could just
wait and sit and go along for the ride
now what about me where do I think it's
going to go well I think a million
dollars by 2030 seems pretty realistic
to me we'll see again in the world of
possibilities and probabilities I think
it's highly probable we'll get there
it's certainly not guaranteed which is
why I don't put 100 % of my money in
we'll come back to that in a minute but
I think in the next 18 months1 to
$150,000 Bitcoin is kind of what I'm
thinking that's a 2 to 3x return from
here I don't know of any other asset I
can put my money into right now today
that can get me that type of return so
that's kind of what I'm thinking all
right so now that you have this
information what are you going to do
with it what do you do well in the fir
in in the famous words of Satoshi
Nakamoto he said that it might make
sense to get some just in case case it
catches on so back to the world of
probabilities all right just like that
show I told you I was watching
everything's a probability so do you
think that there is a 50% chance that
Bitcoin gets to $150,000 in the next two
years okay and it's 50,000 today that's
a 2X upside with a 1x downside it's
pretty good odds you have 50% conviction
of that how much money should put in
maybe put in 50% hold the other 50% you
can average in so you can you can buy it
you should secure it and hold it and you
can either lump some in you can put that
money in or you can dollar cost average
in over time so buy it that's the first
thing do you have some do you have
enough how much should you have it bit
Depends off your conviction now what
we're seeing Wall Street with the ETFs
they're putting 2 to 5% allocations in
you put 2 5% allocation in even if it
drops by 50% it's barely even going to
be noticed however if it goes to where
we think it can then your portfolio is
going to be looking pretty dang good now
if you're crazy and you have a lot of
conviction like I do you might want 30
40 50 60% allocation to Bitcoin now it
also depends on how much money you have
so there's other factors you need to
figure that out for yourself buy it then
you need to secure it and hold it the
Revolutionary feature of Bitcoin is that
I can custody it and secure it and store
it myself and so you should certainly do
that I recommend using a hardware wallet
to do that plenty of help online um
check that out go to BTC sessions on
YouTube he can show you how to do that
and then again like I said should I buy
it now just throw throw my cash in as a
lump suum or should I average in over
time it depends on where your conviction
is but this video has gone long that's
about as much as I can put into it right
now but I'll make more videos let me
know which of these you want me to dig
into more drop those down below now if
you really want to know more about the
probability of will we really go to this
type of a Bitcoin standard or will we go
to another option like a central bank
digital currency using what the brand
new project inridge is then you might
want to watch this video that I did
right here otherwise let me know what
you think leave me a comment down below
hit the Thumbs Up Button if you like it
if you don't thumbs down that's okay at
least tell me why in the comments down
below subscribe if you're not subscribed
and that's what I got to your success
I'm out
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