Why the Fed may wait until November to cut rates
Summary
TLDR本周市场大幅波动主要归因于对经济衰退的担忧,此前上周五的就业报告不及预期。许多经济学家、策略师和投资者开始预测美联储将在9月降息,且降幅可能大于此前预期。然而,Middleberg社区首席经济学家Brad Case认为,美联储可能要到11月才会降息。Case指出,目前没有降息的理由,因为数据显示经济并未真正放缓。他强调,消费者支出依然强劲,工资和收入持续增长,除非收入或消费增长出现疲软迹象,否则经济不需要降低利率。Case还提到,尽管市场对9月降息的预期已经上升,但他的预测模型显示,未来一年经济衰退的可能性仅增加到41%,他认为美联储在11月之前不会降息。
Takeaways
- 📉 市场本周的大幅波动主要归因于对经济衰退的担忧,尤其是在上星期五发布的就业报告不及预期之后。
- 🤔 许多经济学家、策略师和投资者开始预测美联储将在9月降息,并且降息幅度可能比之前预期的更大。
- 📊 半美联储观察概率工具显示,市场预期降息50个基点的可能性上升。
- 💼 嘉宾布拉德·凯斯(Brad Case)是Middleberg社区的首席经济学家,也是前美联储经济学家,他认为美联储可能要到11月才会降息。
- 🚫 凯斯认为目前没有降息的特别理由,因为数据显示经济并未真正疲软。
- 💰 凯斯指出,由于工资和收入持续增长,消费者支出依然强劲,这表明经济并未显示出需要降低利率的迹象。
- 📈 凯斯提到,除非我们看到收入增长或消费增长的放缓,否则没有理由认为经济需要更低的利率。
- 🔍 凯斯强调,要寻找经济衰退的迹象,需要看到多个经济指标的持续疲软,而不仅仅是一个月的数据。
- 🗓️ 凯斯预测,从现在到11月,将有足够的数据表明美联储不应该继续维持高利率,这可能导致他们在11月开始降息。
- 🏠 关于房地产市场,凯斯指出,尽管住宅建设有所放缓,但这是从2020年和2021年的高需求水平下降的。
- 📉 凯斯认为,房地产市场的放缓是从一个过热的状态向可持续水平调整,这是经济健康的表现。
Q & A
为什么市场本周出现了大幅波动?
-市场本周的大幅波动主要归因于对经济衰退的担忧,这是由于上周五发布的就业报告表现不如预期。
经济学家和策略师们目前对美联储在9月份降息的预期是怎样的?
-许多经济学家、策略师和投资者开始预测美联储会在9月份降息,并且降息幅度可能比之前预期的要大。
Brad Case对美联储降息的看法是什么?
-Brad Case认为美联储可能不会在11月之前降息,他指出目前没有足够的数据表明经济正在放缓,因此没有理由现在就降息。
Brad Case提到的“没有特别的理由现在就降息”是什么意思?
-Brad Case认为,只有在数据显示经济真正放缓时,才有必要考虑降息。目前,他认为我们还没有这样的数据。
为什么Brad Case认为目前消费者支出依然强劲?
-Brad Case提到,消费者支出强劲是因为工资和收入持续增长,消费者有钱可花。在收入增长或消费增长出现疲软之前,他认为没有理由认为经济需要降低利率。
Brad Case对于目前工资增长放缓和消费者支出变化的看法是什么?
-尽管有迹象表明工资增长正在放缓,以及消费者支出的某些领域出现了变化,但Brad Case认为这些不足以表明经济整体正在减弱。
Brad Case如何评估经济数据的波动性?
-Brad Case认为,用于预测微观经济状况的数据基于调查,会有月度波动。他强调需要寻找持续的疲软迹象,而不是单月数据的波动。
Brad Case提到的经济衰退的定义是什么?
-Brad Case定义经济衰退为经济的持续全面疲软,这不仅意味着某一部分经济疲软,而是全国范围内多个或大多数经济部门的持续疲软。
如果9月份没有降息,Brad Case认为会发生什么?
-Brad Case认为,如果9月份没有降息,这并不意味着经济会立即出现问题。他预计在11月之前会有足够数据表明美联储不应该继续维持高利率,并可能在那时开始降息。
Brad Case如何使用半美联储观察概率工具来预测降息?
-Brad Case认为半美联储观察概率工具非常有用,但它基于希望降息的人们的交易活动,并不是绝对可靠的。他建议要结合广泛的指标来评估。
Brad Case对房地产市场的看法是什么?
-Brad Case指出,尽管近期住宅建设有所放缓,但这是从2020年和2021年的高需求水平下降的。他认为,从过热的经济转向可持续水平是一个积极的趋势。
Outlines
📉 经济衰退担忧与利率预期
本周市场动荡主要由于上周五就业报告不及预期引发的经济衰退担忧。许多经济学家、策略师和投资者开始预测美联储将在9月降息,并且降幅可能超过之前的预期。'半美联储观察'概率工具显示市场预期降息50个基点的可能性上升。然而,Brad Case,Middleberg社区首席经济学家,前美联储经济学家,认为美联储可能要到11月才会降息。他认为目前没有降息的充分理由,因为数据显示经济并未真正疲软。他强调,除非有持续的疲软迹象,否则不应急于降息。他还提到,强劲的消费者支出是因为工资和收入持续增长,只要收入和消费增长没有出现疲软,就没有必要降低利率。
🏠 房地产市场的调整与预期
Brad Case讨论了房地产市场的情况,指出尽管住宅建设活动有所放缓,但这是从2020年和2021年的高需求水平回落。他解释说,由于个人行为,人们希望拥有自己的住房,导致需求激增,随后市场供应响应强烈,但这种响应正在减少。Case指出,就像失业率从极低水平上升一样,房地产市场的活动也是从异常高水平下降,但这并不意味着经济出现问题。他认为,经济从过热转向可持续水平是积极的,并且预计在9月之后,将有足够的数据表明美联储不应继续维持高利率,这可能导致11月开始降息。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡经济衰退
💡就业报告
💡美联储
💡降息
💡消费者支出
💡收入增长
💡经济指标
💡住房市场
💡住房建设
💡经济适度增长
💡概率工具
Highlights
市场本周的大幅波动主要归因于上周五低于预期的就业报告引发的经济衰退担忧。
许多经济学家、策略师和投资者开始预测美联储将在9月降息,并可能做出比之前预期更大的降息。
半美联储观察概率工具显示降息概率跳升至50%基点。
Brad Case认为美联储可能要到11月才会降息。
目前没有降息的特别理由,除非数据显示经济真正放缓。
消费者支出强劲,因为工资和收入持续增长。
在收入增长或消费增长出现疲软迹象之前,没有理由认为经济需要降低利率。
尽管有迹象表明工资增长开始放缓,但Brad Case并未看到消费者支出的明显减弱。
Brad Case认为,要判断经济是否真的疲软,需要看到持续的、跨多个指标的疲软迹象。
经济衰退意味着整个经济的持续疲软,而不仅仅是某一部分。
半美联储观察概率工具虽然有用,但并非绝对可靠。
Brad Case使用8到10个指标来预测经济衰退的可能性,目前预测模型显示衰退概率为41%。
Brad Case预计,到11月将有足够的数据表明美联储不应该继续维持高利率。
如果9月没有降息,市场可能会对美联储的政策路径产生疑问。
住房市场如果看不到降息信号,可能会受到影响。
尽管住宅建设有所放缓,但这是从2020和2021年的高需求水平回落。
Brad Case认为,经济从过热转向适度是好事。
Transcripts
a lot of the wild moves that we saw in
markets this week can be attributed to
recession fears after that softer than
expected jobs reports last Friday now a
lot of economists and strategists and
investors began forecasting that the FED
would cut rates in September and would
make a bigger cut than previously
anticipated your evidence semi fed watch
probability tool jumping to that 50% uh
basis point marker here and though our
next guest here has a different take
saying the FED may not cut rates until
November we have Brad case who's the
middleberg community's chief Economist
and he's also a former Economist for the
Federal Reserve Brad great to speak with
you okay so take us into your Calculus
here no cut until
November I think that's right uh first
of all there's no particular reason to
cut rates right now uh when when we when
uh data really show a softening economy
yes then there will be a chance to cut
rates but we don't have that kind of
data yet so the people who think that
the economy is head headed toward
recession are guessing that things are
going to soften when we just don't have
any data suggesting they're softening
you mentioned before how strong consumer
spending has been and that's true and
that is because uh wages and and incomes
have continued to increase consumers
have the money to spend and until we
start to see faltering in income growth
or in consumption growth there's really
no no reason to think that the economy
needs lower interest r traes yet I mean
aren't we starting to see some of that
faltering though I mean it's cracks
showing up in the rate at which wages
right now are are starting to just kind
of moderate and then additionally on the
categories where consumers are spending
so it feels like the pressure is is
there and getting larger especially as
the economists that we've speak spoken
with uh you know our reference Dana
Peterson the chief Economist over at the
conference board saying that this is a a
battle weary consumer at this juncture
I I'm not seeing that you know the the
data that we that are that are useful
for making uh forecasts about
microeconomic conditions are based on
surveys and you're going to have
month-to-month bumps in the data and so
what you're looking for is a sustained
weakness so for example the last
employment report was weaker than
expected we've seen that several times
before a one-month employment report
that was weaker than expected followed
by other employment Works reports that
were not weak and so I think uh before
we start to take uh data like that as a
sign of actual weakness throughout the
economy we need to see some some
sustained weakness in those in those
indicators and we need to see it across
a bunch of indicators remember that a
recession doesn't mean that one part of
the economy is weak a recession means a
sustained Strong Weakness throughout the
economy both geographically across the
country and throughout many or most uh
sectors of the economy we just don't see
that what happens if we don't get a rate
cut in September which the semi fed
watch probability we've seen that
already jump not even just to the point
where it's a 25 basis point cut but to a
50 basis point
cut yeah I I I think it's I use that
tool it's a very very useful tool but it
is based on uh on um investment
activities by people who have import
important reasons for hoping for um for
a cut in interest rates it's not an
infallible tool no no single rule is
infallible and so what you have to do is
look at a broad range of indicators I
use 8 to 10 indicators and I look for
multi
multimon uh uh Trends in them um my uh
my recession probability forecasting
model has increased in probability um
but only to
41% so uh so the probability recession
has increased over the probability of
recession over the next year has
increased but it hasn't become become
very strong I think what's likely to
happen is that between now and November
there will be enough data that suggests
that the that the FED should not
continue to keep rates high and that and
because of that in November they will
start to low to reduce rates that may
happen in time for the September meeting
but I don't see any sign that it will
okay so let's pivot this to something
that you and I talk about quite
frequently Brad and that is housing and
the housing market what happens to the
housing market if we don't see the
initial cut that perhaps signals what
the rest of the policy pathway could
look like well if you look at uh
residential construction what we've seen
over the last few months is a softening
in the amount of residential
construction whether it's housing
permits or starts or completions but you
have to recognize that that's coming
from an elevated level there was a
demand surge in housing in 2020 and 2021
and that was caused by individual
Behavior people wanting to go out and
get their own uh own own housing um and
in response to that demand surge there
was a supply response a very strong one
and that is tapering off so just as when
we look at the unemployment rate you
know we see we've seen the unemployment
rate go up but it's going up from an
extraordinarily low level just the same
way in the housing market we see starts
come down and activity come down but
it's coming down from from an
extraordinarily high level so what you
want in your economy is the you want the
entire economy to be moderate and so
we're going from a situation where the
economy was too hot to one where it is
moderating to a sustainable level and
that's a good thing Brad thanks so much
for taking the time here with us
appreciate you presenting this
perspective we'll have to check back in
and see what takes place after September
I will look forward to it certainly Brad
case middleberg community's Chief
Economist thanks so much
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