The future of Fold and bitcoin with Will Reeves

Summary

In this Bitcoin Frontier podcast, Will Reeves discusses the evolution of Bitcoin development, addressing the shift from a focus on Lightning Network to exploring diverse scaling solutions like BBM, Arc, CAT, and CTV. Reeves emphasizes the importance of not relying solely on ETFs and fostering competition to maintain Bitcoin's decentralized nature. The conversation also touches on the potential of Bitcoin to revolutionize financial services, with Fold aiming to become a comprehensive Bitcoin-based financial platform offering rewards, savings, and more.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Bitcoin community is shifting focus from a single protocol to a variety of solutions for scaling and upgrading Bitcoin, acknowledging that no single solution is a 'silver bullet'.
• 🚀 There is an increasing interest in alternative Bitcoin scaling technologies such as BBM (Bitcoin Smart Contracts), Arc (mini banks on Bitcoin), CAT (Confidential Assets), and CTV (Taproot), alongside Lightning Network.
• 🌐 The importance of maintaining a decentralized approach to Bitcoin scaling is emphasized, with the potential risks of centralization through entities like ETFs being discussed.
• 💡 The idea that Bitcoin's role as a store of value is its primary use case, with other use cases developing over time, is highlighted.
• 🔄 The concept of 'unit bias' is discussed, suggesting that people may perceive rewards in smaller units (like SATs) differently from larger purchases, affecting their saving and spending behavior.
• 🏦 Fold, a Bitcoin rewards app, is positioned as a daily financial tool that can evolve into a comprehensive Bitcoin banking solution, offering everything from rewards to checking and savings.
• 🔒 The security and self-custody aspects of Bitcoin are underscored as critical features that differentiate it from traditional financial systems.
• 📈 The potential for Bitcoin to experience continued growth and adoption, even surpassing previous cycles, is suggested, contingent on the organic development and adoption of scaling solutions.
• 🤔 The human tendency towards speculation and the challenges of fostering a culture of saving and low time preference in the context of digital currencies are acknowledged.
• 🛍️ The evolution of payment technologies and the potential for Bitcoin to disrupt traditional payment systems by offering features like unstoppable payments and instant settlement is discussed.
• 🌐 The future of Fold includes plans for a credit card, joint accounts, and enhanced Bitcoin buying features, aiming to make it a central hub for all Bitcoin-related financial activities.

Q & A

What is the main concern regarding the ETF's impact on Bitcoin?

The concern is that the ETF could potentially swallow up a significant portion of Bitcoin's supply, leading to centralization and the possibility of a fork that might favor regulatory compliance over the decentralized nature of Bitcoin.

Why is there a need for competition in the Bitcoin scaling solutions?

Competition is needed to ensure that no single entity or solution dominates and to encourage the development of diverse and robust infrastructure that supports Bitcoin's growth and maintains its decentralized ethos.

What are some of the promising Bitcoin development areas mentioned in the podcast?

The areas mentioned include Lightning Network, BitVM, Arc, and CTV (Covenant and Taproot), each offering different approaches to scaling and enhancing Bitcoin's functionality.

What is the significance of the shift in focus from a single protocol to multiple solutions in Bitcoin development?

The shift signifies a maturing ecosystem where the community recognizes that diverse approaches are necessary to address the various challenges and use cases for Bitcoin, rather than relying on a single 'silver bullet' solution.

How does the concept of self-custody relate to the broader discussion on Bitcoin's future?

Self-custody is a fundamental principle of Bitcoin, emphasizing user sovereignty over their funds. The discussion highlights the importance of maintaining this principle against the risks of centralization and custodial solutions that might become prevalent due to factors like ETFs.

What is the potential impact of having a centralized entity like an ETF dominating Bitcoin's ecosystem?

A centralized entity dominating could lead to a loss of the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, potentially affecting its resilience and the trust of the community. It might also influence the direction of Bitcoin's development in ways that favor compliance and centralized control.

What are the roles of BitVM, Arc, and CTV in the Bitcoin ecosystem?

BitVM allows smart contract computing directly on Bitcoin without changes to the base layer. Arc enables the creation of non-custodial mini banks on Bitcoin. CTV enhances the scalability of Bitcoin by improving the management of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs).

How does the podcast host view the future of altcoins in relation to Bitcoin?

The host believes that altcoins are here to stay due to human nature's inclination towards speculation and the desire to get ahead. They suggest that even though Bitcoin offers a strong value proposition for saving, the allure of altcoins for speculative gains will persist.

What is the significance of the Twitter poll conducted by Will Reeves, and what does it indicate about the Bitcoin community's focus?

The Twitter poll indicates a shift in the community's focus from solely Lightning Network to considering other technologies like BitVM, Arc, and CTV. It suggests a growing interest in diverse solutions for Bitcoin's scalability and functionality.

What are the potential risks of relying too heavily on custodial experiences for Bitcoin, as mentioned in the podcast?

Relying too heavily on custodial experiences could undermine the principle of self-custody and sovereignty in Bitcoin. It may also increase the risk of centralized control and reduce the resilience of the network, moving away from Bitcoin's decentralized nature.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Bitcoin's Future Development and Infrastructure

The speaker discusses the potential future of Bitcoin, focusing on the importance of developing a robust infrastructure to maintain Bitcoin's decentralized nature. They address the possibility of an ETF dominating Bitcoin's supply and the need for competitive alternatives to prevent this. The conversation highlights the significance of Bitcoin's role in the financial universe and the importance of not relying solely on ETFs, but fostering an environment where Bitcoin can thrive independently. The speaker also touches on the podcast's disclaimer regarding financial advice and personal connections.

05:00

🔍 Exploring Bitcoin Scaling Solutions and Their Impact

This paragraph delves into the various scaling solutions for Bitcoin, such as Lightning, Arc, and CTV, and the community's shift in focus from a single protocol to a more diverse approach. The speaker acknowledges the community's realization that no single upgrade can solve all of Bitcoin's challenges and emphasizes the need for different approaches to scaling. They also mention the importance of recognizing and investing in these alternative scaling methods to ensure Bitcoin's continued growth and adoption.

10:01

💡 The Role of Innovation in Bitcoin's Evolution

The speaker contemplates the potential for new, currently unforeseen scaling solutions to emerge in the Bitcoin ecosystem. They discuss the genesis of existing solutions and the likelihood of future innovations that will address the limitations of current technology. The speaker is optimistic about the open-source nature of Bitcoin, which encourages a continuous cycle of problem-solving and idea generation.

15:03

🛡️ The Risks of Centralization and the Importance of Self-Custody

The paragraph addresses the risks associated with centralization in the Bitcoin ecosystem, particularly the dangers of ETFs and custodial solutions. The speaker advocates for self-custody and the importance of building infrastructure that supports it. They also discuss the potential long-term risks if the Bitcoin community fails to create compelling alternatives to centralized entities.

20:04

🏦 The Impact of ETFs on Bitcoin and the Need for Adversarial Actors

The speaker discusses the impact of ETFs on Bitcoin's price and adoption, while also expressing concern about the potential for ETFs to dominate and centralize Bitcoin holdings. They suggest that the entry of adversarial actors, such as sovereign nations, could strengthen Bitcoin by distributing ownership and preventing any single entity from controlling the network.

25:05

🔄 The Persistence of Speculation and the Human Condition

This paragraph explores the idea that speculation is an inherent part of human nature and the financial world. The speaker argues that the desire for speculation is unlikely to disappear, even with the rise of Bitcoin, and that altcoins may persist as a form of speculative investment. They also touch on the role of Bitcoin 'OGs' in the altcoin market and the importance of education in promoting Bitcoin as a long-term savings vehicle.

30:06

🎁 The Psychological Impact of Earning Bitcoin Rewards

The speaker discusses the psychological effects of earning Bitcoin rewards through platforms like Fold, noting that users tend to treat these rewards differently from Bitcoin purchased on an exchange. They suggest that the perception of 'free' Bitcoin from rewards influences users' propensity to spend or invest these earnings in various ways, such as gifts or micropayments.

35:08

📈 Bitcoin's Increasing Scarcity and the Future of Transactions

The paragraph examines the trend of Bitcoin becoming less mobile over time, with an increasing amount of the supply being held and not actively traded. The speaker predicts that a small percentage of Bitcoin will account for the majority of transactions in the future, with the rest of the supply remaining relatively static due to its value and scarcity.

40:10

💼 The Transformation of Payment Infrastructure in a Bitcoin-Centric Future

The speaker envisions a future where Bitcoin plays a central role in the financial ecosystem, with traditional payment companies either adapting to integrate Bitcoin or being disrupted by it. They discuss the potential for Bitcoin to streamline payment infrastructure and the importance of regulatory moats in determining which companies will survive the transition.

45:10

🚀 Fold's Role in Integrating Bitcoin into Daily Life and Financial Services

The speaker outlines Fold's mission to make Bitcoin an integral part of daily life and financial services, from rewards and savings to checking accounts and credit. They discuss the company's plans for the future, including joint accounts, new ways to buy Bitcoin, and the potential for Fold to become a comprehensive Bitcoin banking solution.

Keywords

💡ETF

ETF stands for Exchange-Traded Fund. In the context of the video, it is discussed as a potential influencer in the Bitcoin market, where it could 'swallow up' a significant portion of Bitcoin supply, suggesting a centralized investment vehicle that may affect Bitcoin's decentralized nature. The script mentions concerns about an ETF dominating and how it could impact Bitcoin's future.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a peer-to-peer network without the need for central authorities. The video's theme revolves around the future development and infrastructure of Bitcoin. It is used as a reference point for various technological advancements and financial discussions throughout the script.

💡Lightning Network

The Lightning Network is a layer 2 payment protocol built on top of Bitcoin to enable faster and cheaper transactions. It is mentioned as a dominant focus of development effort in the Bitcoin ecosystem, with the script discussing its challenges, opportunities, and its role in scaling Bitcoin.

💡BBM (Bitcoin Blockchain Machine)

Bitcoin Blockchain Machine is a concept mentioned in the script that allows smart contract computing directly on Bitcoin without requiring changes to the underlying protocol. It is discussed as a potential game-changer for Bitcoin's capabilities and scalability.

💡Arc

Arc is a scaling solution for Bitcoin, enabling the creation of 'mini banks' on the Bitcoin network in a non-custodial manner. The script discusses Arc as a means to scale Bitcoin and improve the management of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs).

💡CTV (Consolidated Transaction Volume)

CTV is a proposed Bitcoin improvement that could enhance the efficiency of transaction processing. The script mentions CTV as one of the technologies that could help scale Bitcoin by improving the way UTXOs are managed.

💡UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output)

Unspent Transaction Output refers to the remaining amount of a Bitcoin transaction that has not been spent. In the script, UTXOs are discussed in the context of scaling solutions like Arc and CTV, which aim to manage these more efficiently to accommodate more users.

💡Fold

Fold is a Bitcoin rewards app mentioned in the script, which allows users to earn Bitcoin through everyday purchases. It is highlighted as a platform that integrates Bitcoin into daily financial activities, with plans to expand its services to include credit and other financial products.

💡Self-custody

Self-custody in the context of Bitcoin refers to individuals managing their private keys and having full control over their funds without relying on third-party services. The script discusses the importance of self-custody as a principle of Bitcoin and the challenges of encouraging users to adopt it.

💡Altcoins

Altcoins are cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. The script discusses the persistence of altcoin speculation and its impact on Bitcoin adoption, suggesting that altcoin cycles may continue indefinitely as part of the digital currency ecosystem.

💡Sats (Satoshis)

Sats, or Satoshis, are the smallest unit of Bitcoin, named after Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. The script mentions Sats in the context of Fold's rewards system, where users earn millions of Sats as a form of passive income.

Highlights

Discussion on the potential of Bitcoin ETFs and their impact on the Bitcoin ecosystem, including concerns about centralization.

The importance of developing alternate infrastructure to prevent a single entity from dominating Bitcoin's future.

Analysis of Bitcoin's scalability solutions, including Lightning Network, BBM, Arc, CAT, and CTV, and their potential to attract investment and users.

The role of open-source technology in fostering innovation and addressing challenges in Bitcoin's development.

The significance of Bitcoin as a store of value and the potential risks of relying too heavily on custodial solutions.

The impact of human nature on the persistence of altcoin speculation and its relationship with Bitcoin's growth.

Insights on the psychological effects of unit bias in the context of Bitcoin savings and altcoin gambling.

The evolution of payment companies and the potential for Bitcoin to disrupt traditional financial models.

The concept of unstoppable payments enabled by Bitcoin and its implications for financial sovereignty.

The future of Fold and its role in integrating Bitcoin into everyday financial activities.

Plans for Fold to expand its services, including the introduction of joint accounts and credit card features.

The potential for Fold to offer Lightning Network withdrawals and its commitment to improving Bitcoin custody.

Discussion on the integration of Bitcoin rewards into various financial products and theFold's strategy for user engagement.

The potential for Bitcoin to streamline payment infrastructure and reduce reliance on traditional banking systems.

TheFold's approach to user feedback and its impact on the development of new features and services.

The vision for Fold as a comprehensive Bitcoin banking solution, offering checking, savings, loans, and credit.

Transcripts

even in the worst case scenario that you

have the ETF swallowing up you know 10%

of the supply at some point and suggest

a fork so that everything is ofac

sanctioned and you know is good for the

environment I can see that happening and

we haven't built a compelling alternate

infrastructure that would allow people

to live on a chain that looks a lot like

it does today we might lose that battle

long term it can't just be an ETF that

that's that's swallowing it up we so we

need more competition for swallowing up

as much utxo possible so what do I see

where fold is in 5 10 years it is it is

definitely the center of your financial

Universe built on bitcoin it is from

your rewards down to your checking and

savings and all the other things that

the Bitcoin economy can

do this podcast is entertainment not

Financial tax or legal advice views

Express represent statements of the

speaker and their individual capacity do

not represent the views of unchain and

should not be considered investment

advice speakers often have personal

family or business connections to

unchain which may include direct

Financial benefits please see our

disclosure at unch.com

podcast hey everybody welcome back to

the Bitcoin Frontier podcast this week I

have on Will Reeves will welcome it's

good to be here Joe excited uh to get

through some stuff today what are we

talking about absolutely let's let's

let's just dive right into it you did a

a Twitter poll recently uh and you you

basically said you painted the picture

that it's 2026 what's the the most

exciting area of Bitcoin development and

you had a list of four answers like

lightning bit BM Arc fety mins and then

CTV cat Ellen enhance maybe can you

answer that from your your perspective

and maybe also might be worth explaining

what some of those even are to to some

of our listeners yeah I think it was I

got thinking about it because um I think

for the Bitcoin uh the in group is kind

of going through a shift right now we've

had we've been working on Lightning for

you know over six years or so uh which

has been the kind of dominant uh focus

of development effort funding for new

startups and a really healthy thing is

happening right now where're we've the

uh the conception that um hey a single

protocol or a single upgrade is not a s

a a silver bullet for all of our woses

and issues and challenges with Bitcoin

it's Bitcoin is an incredible thing and

that it has value to many people for

many different reasons uh which means

that the approaches to upgrading Bitcoin

or to thinking about how to scale

Bitcoin are also going to be varied but

we've really had our eggs all in one

basket with lightning F's been working

on it we were one of the earliest um to

uh um actually put economic use cases on

on the lighting network uh you know we

were we went to the you know initial

lightning conference in Berlin so I'm a

big fan um but the community now uh from

uh consumers who use Bitcoin productss

all the way down to developers who are

working on Lightning are kind of

coalescing around this idea that hey

there are other things that are going on

uh that should receive recognition and

there's at the very same time that

that's happened and that you can say

that not in a heretical you know cast

you out of the uh the Citadel sense um a

lot of very interesting things are being

put to the forfront we have BBM which is

essentially allows you know smart

contract Computing directly on Bitcoin

without any changes to the underlying uh

base layer so no soft Fork required

there's um things like Arc uh which you

know enable us a alternative way of

scaling essentially creating mini banks

on bitcoin that are is from a

non-custodial standpoint and then

there's things like cat L enhan and CTV

that also uh present ways to scale

Bitcoin uh and UT scale utxos to more

people amongst a lot of other things um

I'm or even Unchained can see many very

relevant use cases on some of those

upgrades now lightning is the only one

that exists out of all of those the

other three that I said really don't

exist at all um we have very little data

on if they will work some of them may

not work at all um but the interesting

thing is we're starting to see mind

share developer share and even outside

funding start to go into these use cases

and so I was really curious about you

know where where do where do Bitcoin

think there would be in you know two two

years or so um and it was interesting I

think lightning came up with over 50% uh

potential share in that so we're going

to still be going deeper on Lightning I

think that makes sense lightning is a

proven um a proven entity we know the

challenges and we know the opportunities

and we're more clear on what exactly

it's going to solve for so it makes

sense um so really the question was more

about you know what are these other

things what promises do we see and

I think there's two things that we're

really going to are really going to be

involved in what is going to win in this

thing and it's not really about winning

but which one is going to receive most

shares you know there's either which one

of these is going to bring more money

into Bitcoin and more flow more for flow

more Capital into Bitcoin and which can

bring more people into Bitcoin I think

undoubtedly Arc um is one that is very

directly trying to solve the scaling of

utxos and so can we build mini banks on

on top of Bitcoin and non-custodial ways

that do that I think would help us solve

and onboard more people um cat uh CTV

also helps us scale utxo management also

some other things so I think that is

also makes sense of scaling more people

and then bit VM also is this thing where

um if I were to just throw if if I were

to say hey all these three things are

real and they're all going to work uh

which is going to be the most talked

about I I would have have to assume it's

going to be bit BM at that point um just

because it would essentially swallow all

use cases across all the other chains

and experimentation that's happening or

essentially make everything a second

layer for Bitcoin so there would be

layers for fast cheap payments there

would be layers for you know multi-party

custody there would be layers for

Bitcoin Banks and all of these could be

spun up very easily very quickly on top

and so if they were all to fulfill their

promise uh and what they could do I I

would have to imagine BBM would be um

the top one there um right along with

lightning but again none of those exist

so it's all a total guess which I was

reminded by uh from many people there

saying you know what Bitcoin none of

these things exist lightning exists

right in front of us which is a fair

fair point to take you know as well yeah

fascinating is do you think it's

possible that we'll have some sort of

scaling solution that we are like not

even completely aware of at all today

like something that we can't even

comprehend it's not compatible I guess

or can be put in the bucket of any of

those you know four different solutions

that you just brought up yes I mean I

think the Genesis of all of those um at

least from as much as I've heard from

those that have either written the white

paper or developed the original concept

is they were actually trying to solve

something within bitcoin's existing

bounds and couldn't and so they they had

to you know face this moment of okay

well we could fork and upgrade Bitcoin

or we're going going to have to hack

around this I think Arc and um BVM are

both examples of hey let's hack around

this let's not necessarily require soft

you know soft Forks or upgrades CTV cat

all that of course are upgrades

themselves and so I what is I think the

the the encouraging thing and the easy

yes to your answer is that you know

these things are just the next wave that

are receiving developer share money and

users going into it which are going to

create new problems we're going to find

out the limits of their solution and

that's going to beget more and

alternative paths and more ideas and

it's really just this branching uh

effect that happens with open source

technology where you get as far as you

can you hit a wall some people decide

hey the the answer is to you know Fork

the fundamental thing some say it's to

to uh route around it both of those will

create new uh Solutions and

opportunities you know what they are

can't say but it's in it is inevitable

with open source software yeah it seems

like there's a lot of promising

Solutions and things that we can't even

comprehend will probably be invented to

to help Bitcoin scale is there like a

scenario where a lot of these things

don't necessarily work too well and

Bitcoin kind of gets caught in a a weird

part where it doesn't really scale that

well and people end up using a lot of

custodial Solutions and like what do you

think the probability of something like

that would be over know coming decade

most of those things either won't work

that I said or we'll have very limited

will work in a very limited use case and

um again just like we found out with

lightning it's like it's it's good for

certain things it's not good for

absolutely everything and as we navigate

all of these new ideas that come up and

New Opportunities I think it's really

important to ground yourself in what

actually works today and um try you know

do everything you can not to sacrifice

the wins that we have got today the the

ground that we have taken and so I I

believe we should look at what Bitcoin

has won on I mean Bitcoin is undoubtedly

won at being the best form of money

digital money certainly uh that exists

and anything that is going to put that

at risk or potentially put that at risk

is needs to go through you know should

go through a lot more trial and

tribulation to to and to get um any

changes there and so I would say this is

why I like things like an arc or a bit

VM we don't require us to change

anything on the base layer doesn't

require that you can just build on top

of it building on top of it is an

inevitability when something is open

source um and so as long as we stay true

to that stay true to what Bitcoin has

won on as well as seek you know Drive

these you know developer efforts and and

new ideas down to their you know down

their path and figure out where they

lead us I think it's smart um but you

know moving fast and bragging things is

is not not the business that we're all

in yeah I agree with that do you think

that there's some sort of risk when it

comes to things like the ETFs where

people or investors or or holders get

complacent and maybe don't strive to be

Sovereign and and use Bitcoin in a

non-custodial way or do you think that

over time there will be like censorship

and and things that force people to look

for True ways to be free with their big

yeah I mean absolutely does I mean to

the the part of your last question I did

answer of is like you know the these

forces of centralization are so strong

within Bitcoin both from the ETF um even

from lightning most people's experience

of lightning is a custodial experience

that could be done without lightning um

and that it's a weird poll that we see

is that people are seeking the easiest

cheapest exp and those are often come in

custodial forms you know non- custo

choosing to be self- custodies is and

choos sovereignty is um not supposed to

be an easy thing shouldn't be an easy

thing it is a is a stance of um of and

it's opt in it is absolutely of a very

intentional move uh that puts you more

at risk from certain things because you

have to trust yourself and your setup

but it it lowers your risk and uh need

to trust for outside actors and our

entire lives in Fiat world is just to

trust outside actors to do it for us and

so the model of a custodial model makes

perfect sense it's the dominant uh way

that we have inter interacted with money

for a very long time by Design Bitcoin

breaks that fundamentally at you know at

the at the the most important thing I

believe about Bitcoin is the ability to

take self- custody uh uh you know of it

and so um the ETFs are are a danger and

like we're looking at the success I

think 500 million in flows almost daily

seems to be right ing uh and that's

before most of the marketing has kicked

in and some of the you know other

passive investment that's going to be

happening across the traditional

financial sector into that ETF um this

ship has sailed and I think it will come

down to you know an issue it come to a

head at some point the question is will

the builders who are building things for

to enable self- custody have built

sufficient infrastructure that there is

another way there is another path for

Bitcoin um even in the worst case

scenario that you have the ETF

swallowing up you know 10% of the supply

at some point and suggest a fork so that

everything is ofac sanctioned and you

know is good for the environment and um

you know I can see that happening and if

if we don't have if we haven't built a

compelling alternate uh infrastructure

um that would allow people to live on a

chain um that looks a lot like it does

today uh we might lose that battle long

term and um you know I think we have a

while luckily right now it's it's it's

we're all most people are effectively

just cheering for it without much

criticism but I think it it does

represent a systemic risk um that only

is going to increase over time yeah I've

heard people talking about like the idea

that wall stre or black rock or whoever

could theoretically you know Fork

Bitcoin themselves or another entity

could support a fork and create a fork

and then within the ETF parameters they

can kind of Select which version of

Bitcoin they think is the real Bitcoin

which might end up just rugging a lot of

their their holders yeah I mean I mean

everyone would get an air drop like we

did with the Bitcoin cash so that that's

an interesting element you know the the

counterbalance here is that you know I

like the ETF story I love what it's

doing to bitcoin I love the price action

it's bringing a lot of people in but the

stuff I love is the stuff that really

represents Bitcoin is for enemies like I

love when I see the rumors of UAE St St

Ing and then we get Sovereign Nations

stacking against each other to have this

like that actually strengthens Bitcoin

when you have adversarial actors who are

vying for um uh ownership over utxos

that's a really good thing because that

is going to split any consensus over

splitting the chain the problem is is if

that doesn't happen in time and the this

other kind of very centralized entity

which is the ETF also US Government um

US US government Bitcoin chain if that

gets too far out in front of things we

could have an issue so the more it can

be balanced with these new actors coming

in with heavy capital allocations in

that are adversarial against it we're

not we shouldn't have a problem it's if

one of these trains develops way too

fast that we do and this is you know

it's that's been the case of Bitcoin you

know from the beginning you can look you

know the SAT you know satoshi's emails

that just came out from uh Maly that you

know he's really talking about the the

Wikipedia accepting Bitcoin um for

Wikileaks and he says it's too early

don't do this yet if one of these things

goes too far out of the other and it's

not developing organically in Step where

the the network is um maturing at a rate

in a balanced rate like it can cause

problems and um you know so more more

stories of uh you know the uh the

Emirates coming in of other countries

like that's that the good stuff that's

happening it can't just be an ETF that

that's that's swallowing it up we so we

need more competition for swallowing up

as much utxo as possible yeah it's such

a good point I mean to some extent I've

heard people talk about this like it's

kind of great that the ETF was not

approved back in you know 2013 2016 or

whatnot it enabled more coins to get

distributed to individuals countries at

this point corporations and they're not

holding that Bitcoin through the ETF

they're holding it their own utxo so

it's kind of a weird dynamic where it

worked out and better for all of and

forit better for bitco absolutely I

couldn't agree more another question uh

kind of relating to you know now that

we're in this you know early stage of

probably you know a bull bull cycle for

Bitcoin typically what happens is you

know altcoins you know we have some

crazy phase of everyone investing in dog

tokens and and the next the next Bitcoin

right will altcoins ever die or will

that be a peret ual phase that we go to

there are you know since the beginning

of money really the you know the idea

you know I think a lot of bitcoiners

like to understand you know Bitcoin as

this great purifying technology that

brings this idea of um all of us

becoming you know Savers and misers and

um just low time preference over time

like I definitely love that Vision um

but I also believe that human nature is

just different than that because

everyone is coming from different uh you

know different points of their life

they're they're inheriting different um

uh uh you know uh tools at the beginning

of their life of what how they can use

them and really I do not believe you can

separate the idea of money both good

money both serving saving and

speculation like I just don't think you

can rid that of it those that did not

save will be um uh you know forced into

not forced into but will increasingly

look to speculate those that have saved

a lot will be looking to speculate and

get ahead like it's a it's a cycle that

that flows together and I've never

bought the idea that we've seen the last

you know altcoin cycle I I just don't

you know there's a possibility that it's

Stamped Out of the US but it will just

go abroad and I I don't think you can

get rid of it I think it is here to stay

and digital money makes that easier and

easier to do and it brings down those

barriers so the more wealth Bitcoin I

believe the more wealth the more

speculation that will happen and we're

we're seeing that today um and I don't

think we will get rid of that I think

we're talking a little bit about the

human condition at a certain point yeah

you brought up such an interesting point

about how like you know bitcoiners like

to talk about the low time preference

you know idea of you know not

speculating and saving but at the same

time I feel like the world is getting

more and more wealthier with with new

technology and Bitcoin is like enabling

us to save so much more than what was

previously possible that you know if

you're an extremely wealthy individual

you might actually start speculating

more because you have all this wealth

and you're comfortable speculating and

and building new things I you know I

think um I think that's exactly right

and we've seen this you know there

there's also another a popular Bitcoin

belief that all altcoin speculation is

just like Noob uh guy at McDonald's

who's like yoloing his paycheck into it

like if you actually look at where a lot

lot of the speculative uh capital is

coming from in the altcoin markets a lot

of it is from very old Bitcoin ogs who

have a ton of Bitcoin and you know their

idea they they have more money to you

know than they need even today at

today's prices for the next four

generations that they'll have um and a

lot of them have actually perpetuated

and propelled a lot of this speculative

use case so it's not always you know

altcoins leing you know Lambs to the

slaughter a lot of it is just you know

early Bitcoin ogs who are going into

this fully aware uh of the speculative

risks that are there and I think that a

little bit gets breaks down that

narrative that if only they knew about

Bitcoin they would save in Bitcoin well

really the only two people who are

really you know deing into these

altcoins are Bitcoin ogs who have a ton

of Bitcoin and are trying to get more

Bitcoin or just trying to get a little

bit of dopamine and uh from uh their

prev you know watching Bitcoin hitting

that wave the other is people who felt

like they fell behind and didn't catch

Bitcoin in time trying to cheat the

system to get a Bitcoin stack and those

are the ones who are obviously I feel

that's the one I think is where the most

damage comes from because um what each

cycle has shown is that you're really

never you're never late you you can't be

late to bitcoin because uh regard yes

you you might not have been in at the

you know when it was sub a dollar sub

$100 but you will be farther ahead than

you are today uh by Saving in Bitcoin

than than you would have been doing

anything else and that value proposition

alone should be it is is is incredible

to have available to us unfortunately

again the human mind wants to take a

shortcut wants to cheat and um it means

instead of saving you're just going to

go full speculation that's where the

dangers happen in this Frontier moment

will is suggesting that the extreme

speculation may never end and that

altcoins may always persist at least to

some extent related to this T deer

recently posted a chart mostly a fun

meme about how it's possible that

altcoins have slowed Global Bitcoin

adoption and eventually Bitcoin may get

back on track with the growth rate seen

in the first couple of Cycles before

altcoins were popular now this first

chart was mostly a meme he more

seriously posted a more sane chart

based on a 2012 exponential projection

model the upper bound of this chart sits

at over $2 million per Bitcoin by the

end of

2025 of course this is a stretch and

assumes the previous Cycles returns were

in fact muted but it is possible that

even the most bullish Market

participants are underestimating

bitcoin's absolute scarcity and now back

to will but unfortunately you know in

the Fiat world that's always been there

you know speculation and trying to get

ahead instead of just low time

preference it's very hard thing taking

self custody very hard thing having a

low time preference very hard thing and

again it's a thing that is it's the

harder path for someone to take and

that's why you know again we're we're

going to have all coins of speculation

for a long time yeah I I tended to agree

on with that um I I definitely think

it's just very important that we

continue educating that hey holding or

saving Bitcoin is likely the highest

long-term risk adjusted return and like

you said it's that's something that's

you know saving is something that's

maybe easy to do or or simple to do but

it's not easy to do um and then like

altcoins play a role and you know kind

of enticing people away from saving um

at least in the short term do you think

unit bias plays a role in this you know

gambling on altcoins rather than

encouraging you to save Bitcoin how do

you think about unit bias yeah we know

you know bias has an effect um you know

that one of the things that fold did

very early is we just adopt

I don't I don't think anywhere do we

show um uh you know when you're buying

Bitcoin or when you're earning it we

only show the unit in SATs we only show

it so you know I have you know earned 48

million SATs on my my fold rewards when

you buy Bitcoin you also buy SATs um we

in there's an thing that just again our

our monkey brains like larger numbers

and they like when those larger numbers

to a smaller entry price to get those

larger numbers and so we know it's true

um how well that you know how how much

that really comes into effect when

you're trying to make the case of hey

stop buying this alt Al altcoin versus

you know this sat is a harder um is a

harder I think uh argument but at the

end of the day what it does solve for is

someone who's ready for Bitcoin I think

it's more readily available to buy in

sets when they're ready for that they

feel more accomplished they feel like

they make more progress when you talk

from that unit um but I don't think it's

just going to magically make people

think oh I can have 48 million SATs or

48 million dog with Hats you know I'm

gonna I'm gonna go to dog with hat

because I'm I'm gonna expect you know a

thousand extra turn in a week and then

I'll get out and then I'll buy Bitcoin

with it like that's the psychology

you're dealing with with the AL altcoin

space yep have you noticed a difference

in like fold clients like their

relationship with SATs or B coin that

they've earned as like a reward versus

maybe SATs or Bitcoin that they've

purchased or purchased on an exchange

like do people like treat them

differently at all like do they are they

more inclined to save or something or or

have you done any like yeah I mean some

we've done some uh you know quantitative

research around it but the the qual the

qualitative is just so clear we get it

so often that um there is definitely a

difference when people are buying on our

platform uh it's definitely heading to

cold store storage and it is your your

savings account uh we often hear that

the rewards with they earning with fold

are the rewards that they're most likely

going to do something with it so uh the

most common things are hey all the all

the rewards I earn on fold uh goes to my

kids um Bitcoin stash that'll be part of

their inheritance uh we hear it is uh

the SATs I earn on fold is what I um use

on Noster or I use on wav Lake um or I

you know spend on a on a gift card uh

something like that so we see the

rewards and again part of what that

folds whole thing is like trying to make

you know you know a pathway into Bitcoin

to earn it easy but also once you're

earning it you're earning it passively

and so I think just from that frame and

that mindset that these STS are free uh

to some extent puts them in a different

mental category than SATs that you know

you may be putting your whole paycheck

into for your own savings stack so we we

see it often that people have a lot of

creative ways and are far more free to

do with th those STS than maybe ones

that they buy from an exchange yeah

that's that's pretty fascinating and I

guess it does make sense because it's

like it's kind of this passive sat flow

that you're receiving by just swiping

your fold card every time you you check

out somewhere so pretty interesting um

do you think that like that's good for

Bitcoin like where people have you know

a couple million SATs that they've

earned through their fold card or more

and people do you know unique things

with those whether it's like zapping

people on noer or Noster or we're doing

all sorts of different you know micro

payment type things is that good for

Bitcoin um is it yeah I I think I think

it is I think I think the more Bitcoin

flows is the better I think just again

SATs flow from the standpoint of just

the whole ecosystem you know the more

the more places where Bitcoin is Flowing

uh and more use cases is good now um

it's undoubtedly one of the smallest

flows happening in Bitcoin like you know

if we if you really want to talk about

the biggest flows are you know number

one ETF happening then you have the kind

of Sailor corporate treasury uh you know

Arbitrage then you have just investors

who are uh using it as a savings vehicle

or an investment vehicle depending on

where they are in their journey and then

you have all these longer tail cases

medium exchange peer-to-peer transfers

there are ultimately very small and if

anyone if any one of these um went away

it's not going to bitcoin would just

continue forward really um but I just

see those as uh really at the beginning

of their adoption cycle it's just

there's no doubt that the idea of

Bitcoin as a store of value is the

number one killer use case of Bitcoin

right now and the other forms will

develop they will get bigger right now

they're very small and so everything

that does you know at once you know

these things will start to build but you

know for the foreseeable future they

they'll be they'll be very small and I

think we need that culture both of

people building and using and being

creative to ultimately get to a spot

where these you know the these these sat

flows get get larger and more meaningful

yeah on the topic of flows of Bitcoin

like I have the hotle waves chart behind

me right here and it's you can

definitely see a very clear Trend that

most Bitcoin is just getting kind of

held and and not moved over you know

longer and longer time goes goes goes by

do you think that that Trend will

continue for like a very very very long

time or if not never stop and maybe like

there's a small fraction of Bitcoin that

we use as like a medium of exchange or

for rewards and that might be a lot of

activity but it might be a very small

amount of the total circulating Bitcoin

yes I mean that's definitely what's

going to happen it's I think it's a 90

plus percent of Bitcoin will probably

just not move anywhere uh the the top

crust

that's flowing around you know is um you

know from things like smaller

peer-to-peer transfers but it's also

just moving utxo ownership across to

different entities uh that 10% though is

going to be worth a lot more than it is

today right that that entire 10% is

going to be settling you know the market

cap the entire market cap of Bitcoin

today will be settled uh in that top 10%

in the next coming years right so it

will be a small percent of of Bitcoins

but it will be a large you know it'll be

it'll be you know a large uh market cap

that is going to be flowing a lot of

value will have been settled so yes I

think that's definitely um definitely

the case and there's also ways of how do

you transfer ownership of utxos um

without actually sending the utxl like

you know an open dime is a great example

I I can use an open dime and give you a

million dollars of Bitcoin that doesn't

move on chain at all but the value

between us has has transferred and there

will be things like that happen that

cons that all um are essentially

allowing Bitcoin to flow without having

an onchain footprint because it's going

to get very very expensive and the base

layer is essentially just going to be

you know the old containership uh uh

analogy versus you know your post post

service delivering value to with tax day

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[Music]

coin move less because that's kind of

what it is it's it's delaying the

onchain transaction that might be needed

all of them Arc um uh bit VM all of them

just delay onchain movement and so um

it's it's totally inevitable it does get

to the case of why you know all this you

know as number goes up now it's funny

how we're in bare markets and in Bull

markets you know bare markets you know

we're all about the tech you know number

go up is less important but you know at

the end of the day um number has to go

up constantly it has to go up or you

know that the experiment gets way out of

balance and it and it will fail and so

um as we talk about the sustainability

of bitcoin's chain and how do we have

much more transaction fees you know

first step is it's got numbers got to

continue going up number one bare

minimum the second thing is okay how do

we make sure there's a healthy exchange

of utxos to continue to paying miners to

solve the security budget so yeah it's

going to be fast to see how it plays out

you know over the next decade or even

Century um what do you think about Fiat

payment companies like you obviously

have a fold which is like a Bitcoin

Rewards app and and now you have buying

and selling Bitcoin on that as well how

do you think about Fiat pay payment

companies like will Visa Mastercard

stripe will they always exist or are

those going to be you know dinosaurs of

the past um you know some of them will

be far too slow to adopt and get ahead

of the curb um but they do have real

Network effects and those that the

difference is those that are just

middlemen because of a regulatory moat

um uh that don't actually add value um

are going to get demolished in the

process but those that actually have a

network effect and I think Visa is

definitely one of them stripe is

definitely one of them uh while adding

Bitcoin can seem to undermine some of

their other business models uh they can

also use their moat to Great Value to

integrate Bitcoin as well and I think

that's going to happen you're already

seeing some of these companies all you

know aggressively start to pursue their

Bitcoin strategy and again this Bitcoin

strategy is going to be everything from

hold it on your balance sheet how do we

leverage our existing you know products

and value set to uh augen Bitcoin and

vice versa and so some of them will be

disrupted but um a lot of them are going

to have their hand forced and will will

adopt now some Bitcoin companies are

going to are definitely going to make it

as well um but the the those that truly

get thrown out are the ones who just

operate a business that are just a

middleman Without You Don't Own the

network you don't own the customer

relationship literally some regulator

created your industry and you know

that's where you collect your check from

th those will go away um but if you own

the network or you own the customer

you'll stay around and you know probably

be just fine for a while yeah that makes

sense this is kind of a deeper like

interesting question like do you

envision the concept of payments

evolving at all over time like I I think

that fold rewards is kind of a good

example where maybe 100 years ago you

couldn't even think comprehend uh you

know getting rewards back for sending

money I don't I don't know if that

existed 100 years ago are there other

like Concepts like that that may you

know be very popular you know sometime

down down the road that aren't thinking

about today uh well I think bitcoin's

original Silk Road thesis of of um of

stoppable payments is is extremely

powerful and definitely checks that that

one of those boxes it's something

amazing where you know I don't have to

actually go and meet you with physical

cash or gold to make a payment someone

doesn't want me to do now they'll

proably they'll know that I did it right

because Bitcoin is not a great place to

obate um your activity but they can't

stop you from doing it in this Frontier

moment will is talking about Bitcoin as

technology that enables truly

Unstoppable payments here's a brief

analogy to understand how this compares

to the traditional banking system

imagine a game of whack-a-mole where the

goal is to hit moles with a mallet as

they pop up from Holes in a large board

in this analogy the moles represent

Bitcoin transactions and the game board

represents the global network of full

nodes and miners when you make a

traditional bank transfer it's like

sending a mole just through one specific

hole if someone wants to stop that mole

or payment they can simply cover that

hole and the mole won't be able to get

through through however with Bitcoin

your transaction isn't going through

just one hole it's like sending hundreds

of moles through hundreds of holes all

at once all across the entire board this

board is vast and spanning the entire

globe and it is maintained by thousands

of independent participants running

Bitcoin full nodes trying to stop a

Bitcoin transaction would be like trying

to predict and cover every possible hole

from which a mole might pop up which is

practically impossible given the number

of holes and the fact that more holes

can join the network and the speed at

which the moles move to the available

open holes this is a key reason why it's

easy to censor centralized Fiat payments

or censor centralized Tik Tok videos but

it's incredibly difficult to censor

Bitcoin transactions and now back to

will that's a huge win and um you know

it's something that you know I'm not

sure what the the the the future of that

is really you know of because of on you

know bitcoin's you know privacy existing

privacy and where it is I just I don't

know where it is but that truly did

something very special and new um

payments in general um are trending

towards all of the infrastructure that

we have for payments uh versus the

actual experience of payments so today

you can experience 247 payments

instantaneous access to your money but

the actual infrastructure that's

supporting that does none of that it

doesn't settle your payment um it does

not open 247 it doesn't do anything all

we we've done is create a whole layer of

fraud mitigation of capital risk of

insurance of uh borrowing and Loans to

make that Upper Crust experience real

and we actually have a technology today

that can provide some of those

guarantees 247 uh

irreversible um uh instantly settled or

close to instant settlement

uh without all of that underlying uh you

know um infrastructure so I think

payments is really just going to get

streamlined in a lot of ways we we'll

have know sending value over Bitcoin

whether that is Bitcoin or a dollar over

Bitcoin has you know will upgrade will

upgrade Fiat in a funny way um and so

that that will change um you know things

like rewards and all of that it's it's

it's you know remains to be seen um you

know a lot of you know Tech technically

rewards and you know where rewards are

today is a lot of that is just what's

happening in Washington what's the next

bill that comes out to regulate these

payment companies so those are all just

represent massive risks for payment

networks overall um and it's a good

example of traditional company uh

creating a regulatory moat around itself

to stop competition from coming in now

is finds that regulatory moat as a

regulatory jail cell where they can't

get out of it and Bitcoin is in a scate

hatch out of it and so we'll see remains

to be seen how much of it is adopted but

a lot of good Bitcoin companies are

pushing pushing the envelope anyway so

if they don't we will love to hear it

where do you see fold five years from

now so fold has always been about um

kind of uh introducing and um shepher in

a new generation of um Financial actors

into Bitcoin into their daily life like

how it's not about how can Bitcoin

benefit you in 20 years or your for your

retirement fund it's like today how is

it going to do it we started off with

rewards and what that's done is you know

people will look at their rewards after

two years and say I have more money in

my rewards account than I do in my

savings account what how is that

possible why is that real well let's

talk about how Bitcoin works and what

it's doing it also has given people you

know um increased purchasing power so as

you have a Bitcoin uh Spike now it's

easier to maybe buy groceries um than it

was without without it um we're also

seeing now people adopt Bitcoin uh as

their investment account into their

savings account and not only now their

savings account into their checking and

savings so people aren't looking at it

just as a thing to put away forever and

never touch it's saying hey I have my

stack that I put away and never touch

but why does it make sense for me on a

day-to-day basis to have any meaningful

exposure to US dollars at all which are

being inflated away which are uh exposed

to custody risk um and I should just

have that in Bitcoin and when I need it

I can convert out of Bitcoin and I've

had users who have joined us three years

ago who said hey my a friend just said

um you know I should get into Bitcoin so

I'm going to start just earning rewards

and now some of those people have gone

from earning rewards to start investing

in Bitcoin as as their as a kind of

their own speculative investment then

started saving in Bitcoin uh replac

their savings account and are now

actually living entirely off Bitcoin so

uh it is a we fold is is building the

scaffolding for the rabbit hole as time

goes on and as every day consumers and

financial actors are maturing into

bitcoin's you know true potential and so

what do I see uh where bit where fold is

in five 10 years it is it is definitely

a a the center of your financial

Universe built on bitcoin it is it is

from your rewards down to your checking

and savings and all the other things

that the Bitcoin economy can do you know

you should be able to access Credit and

loan off of that Bitcoin you should be

able to get a mortgage off of that

Bitcoin you should be able to send a

friends all those things will be present

and integrated into fold so it can you

can essentially ditch your bank and go

almost to a full Bitcoin Bank stack with

fold awesome yeah that that is very cool

um one thing that I think is interesting

is I think last week on Friday I posted

a tweet and I I said I'm talking with

Will on Tuesday and uh you guys have any

questions for them and a ton of people

replied with questions and they were all

questions about fold pretty much um why

do you think so many people are so

passionate and excited about old I think

it's because we've built something to be

relevant every single day in people's

Liv so they think about it which makes

them both excited and it's on their mind

and also very open to sharing the

shortcomings and the Alles or the things

they wished came from full and that is

that is essentially the the success of

what we've tried to do is create

something that people engage with every

day deepening their relationship with

Bitcoin that they think about all the

time and the only limiting factor is

that F doesn't offer it and we need to

offer it and so you know that's why

every time you know I I constantly am

asking our our user base what would you

like to see what's next and none of it

is long far off speculative things it's

like I need this today because this

unlocks the next um chapter of Bitcoin

in my life and I need that from full and

I I've expected F to give that to me and

I think that is probably why when you

ask what is it's going to look a lot

like our support inbox does I'll

probably say that fair enough yeah well

since people did ask I kind of want to

ask at least a few of them um and you

might have very short answers which is

fine or say it's coming at some point

but uh uh I kind of want to just rattle

them off if you have a quick answer feel

free to answer it someone asked when

fold credit card yes the elusive fold

credit card um it's something that we've

been working on and and and uh have been

talking about for a while because I

think it's something that the that the

market wants and uh is will be very

successful so we have we are you know uh

still believe that that is the right

path we think about credit in different

ways we think about hey uh the Bitcoin

you've purchased on fold the the Bitcoin

you deposit on fold uh you should get

access to credit and Loan lines directly

from that you could push that directly

to your debit card or you could a that

to a different bank um so we think about

credit that way we also think about a

more traditional revolving credit

product um in the probably the most

clear thing which is not clear at all

but it is on the road map we we do feel

that that is a product that fold should

launch and will launch cool another one

is when will there be a feature to

automatically push a Bitcoin balance

that you might have to cold stor

so right now you can withdraw so with

fold when you buy Bitcoin um you

immediately get access to that Bitcoin

there's no waiting time or anything so

you can instantly withdraw that to Cold

Storage I think what this person may be

asking is like can I upload an X Pub for

my Unchained Vault or something um I

think that's a good thing for probably

you and I to discuss after this call um

but right now you can technically do

that um it's just not automated I think

that's a a solid feature though another

one is is fold going to do anything

about the death of PayPal bills oh

PayPal it was the the the hack of the

century and uh both the the uh one of

the most exciting things and most

annoying things of my last year so

anytime you know you find something like

this essentially what it was is uh fold

users can earn rewards for paying using

their debit card to pay off mortgages

credit cards Insurance uh you know you

name it so essentially all the largest

bills that you have you could earn

rewards on uh which became which is very

lucrative for a lot of people um

recently PayPal has been removing some

of these uh billers so um which has left

some people unable to earn rewards and

left them obviously unhappy with that so

we're talking with PayPal we're seeing

where they're at we honestly don't know

if this is a long-term thing or they're

just switching providers and they're

going to bring it back I hope they're

going to bring it back because you know

I certainly benefited off of it um but

even if they don't I think we have a lot

of excited new rewards opportunities

that are coming um but good good thing

to all those who are able to take

advantage of you know earning rewards on

your mortgage which I'm still able to do

somehow so those those bills are still

there um as was was truly amazing yeah I

was paying off my like City Credit Card

uh through fold for a number of months

and it was definitely awesome so

hopefully it'll somehow come back PayPal

will allow it but um how about when

lightning withdraws from a fold account

that's another one yes I think that's a

an obvious one that that we should have

um and really from us it's just been um

making sure that we have our custody and

um all of that infrastructure really

ready to go because it it doesn't make

sense for us to do have lightning

withdrawals for your rewards but not for

the Bitcoin that you buy we want to roll

out something that's comprehensive that

works for all use cases um and I think

we're now close after the work that

we've been doing the last three months

um to upgrade our custody and also with

that our ways of moving Bitcoin around

on the platform I love it yeah fold is

definitely one of my favorite Bitcoin

products and I feel like it's only going

to get better especially after listening

to you chat about this is there anything

else that you want to bring up or

mention or or closing thoughts um let's

see I think uh fold so you know the

things that are on the horizon for fold

you know are you again how do we make it

relevant for your entire life so we're

doing joint accounts that allows you to

get your spouse your family on board to

start stacking with you um you'll see a

lot of uh effort and things on the um

the Bitcoin buying side you know we just

released the ability to round up your

change into Bitcoin so you know if you

spend 175 it'll automatically buy 25

cents worth of bitcoin the fun part

about fold is that you can actually put

a multiplier on it and do 10x so if you

save 25 cents into Bitcoin that'll be

two 250 into Bitcoin so you can kind of

uh boost your stacking we have DC a

recurring buys a lot of good stuff

coming down the line I think this will

be one of F's most productive years so

I'd say definitely try it out um and I'm

always available on Twitter anyway so

you can like all our other community

does is you know constantly talk about

what fold should have we'll get there

someday I like it a lot well will thanks

for uh taking the time to sit down with

us and it was great to chat awesome Joe

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