AGI by 2030: Gerd Leonhard Interview on Artificial General Intelligence

Summary

The speaker discusses the potential of artificial general intelligence (AGI), predicting its advent around 2030, and emphasizes the need for regulation to prevent misuse. They highlight the economic benefits of intelligent assistance in practical tasks but warn of the risks of dependence and societal shifts. The speaker advocates for a nonproliferation agreement to prevent uncontrollable AGI development and stresses the importance of collaboration and alignment in AI progress.

Takeaways

• 🔍 The advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) could be as close as five years away, with a conservative estimate being around 2030.
• 🤖 Intelligent assistance, which includes practical applications like controlling emissions, protein folding, scheduling appointments, and translation, is already making life more efficient and is not inherently dangerous.
• 🌐 The economic impact of AI is significant, as it can increase the GDP, but it does so unevenly, benefiting those already in advantageous positions more than others.
• 📈 AI can drastically increase efficiency in various jobs, potentially leading to a 3-5x improvement, but this also raises concerns about job displacement and economic inequality.
• 🌐 The development of AGI could lead to most people becoming unemployed, as machines would be able to understand and perform tasks across all domains, making human work redundant.
• 🚫 There is a call for a nonproliferation agreement for AGI, similar to nuclear weapons, to prevent uncontrollable and self-replicating superintelligence from being developed.
• 🌐 The current trajectory of AI development is driven by profit, often at the expense of broader societal and environmental considerations, which could lead to significant negative consequences.
• 🌐 Companies like Microsoft and OpenAI are seen as being in charge of public policy and national security by extension, due to their influence over AI development and its potential impact on society.
• 🚀 The speaker advocates for a cautious approach to AI development, emphasizing the need for regulation, collaboration, and a focus on solving practical problems rather than pursuing AGI.
• 🌐 The speaker expresses a cautious optimism about the potential of AI to solve major global problems like cancer, water scarcity, or energy issues, but is pessimistic about the likelihood of voluntary collaboration and alignment in AI development.

Q & A

When does the speaker predict the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)?

The speaker predicts that the advent of AGI could be as close as five years away, but suggests 2030 as a safer estimate.

What is the speaker's view on the term 'intelligent assistance'?

The speaker refers to 'intelligent assistance' as AI that can handle practical tasks such as controlling emissions, protein folding, scheduling appointments, and translation, which are beneficial and not inherently dangerous.

How does the speaker use AI in his personal life?

The speaker uses a translation app called Ras to translate his keynote videos into Spanish and Portuguese, which has made a significant difference in his ability to communicate with a broader audience.

What economic impact does the speaker foresee from the use of intelligent assistance?

The speaker believes that intelligent assistance can increase economic possibilities, such as enabling him to speak multiple languages and summarize legal documents quickly, similar to the impact of cloud technology.

What is the speaker's concern about the uneven increase in GDP due to AI?

The speaker is concerned that the increase in GDP due to AI will be uneven, benefiting those who are already in a position to increase their wealth, and potentially exacerbating economic polarization.

How does the speaker view the role of companies like Microsoft and Open AI in the development of AI?

The speaker is worried that companies like Microsoft and Open AI are in charge of public policy and national security issues related to AI, which he believes should not be the responsibility of private companies.

What is the speaker's stance on the development of superintelligence?

The speaker is against the development of superintelligence, comparing it to the invention of the nuclear bomb, and believes it could lead to uncontrollable and dangerous consequences.

What advice does the speaker have for governments, users, and companies regarding AI?

The speaker advises that there should be a nonproliferation agreement for building superintelligence, similar to regulations on nuclear weapons, and that companies should be licensed and supervised in their AI development.

What is the speaker's view on the potential societal impacts of AGI?

The speaker is concerned about the potential societal impacts of AGI, such as unemployment, dependency on AI, and the side effects of AI like disinformation and bias.

What is the speaker's current outlook on the future of AI?

The speaker characterizes himself as a cautious optimist, believing that while AI can solve many practical problems, there is a need for more collaboration and alignment to prevent negative consequences.

What is the speaker's campaign about?

The speaker is campaigning for a framework that requires licensing and permission for companies to build AGI, emphasizing the need for regulation and collaboration to prevent misuse.

Outlines

00:00

🤖 The Economic Impact of Intelligent Assistance

The speaker discusses the potential arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) within five years, emphasizing the current role of intelligent assistance (IA) in practical applications such as controlling emissions, protein folding, scheduling appointments, and translation. The use of translation apps exemplifies how IA is making life more efficient, with economic benefits arising from increased communication capabilities. The speaker also highlights the potential for AI to increase GDP unevenly, favoring those already in advantageous positions, and the need to consider the broader societal and policy implications of AI development, particularly regarding companies like Open AI and Microsoft that are shaping public policy and national security.

05:00

🚀 The Unequal Growth of AI and Economic Disparity

This paragraph delves into the potential of AI to outperform human intelligence in computational tasks due to its lack of physical limitations. The speaker warns of the risks associated with dependency on AI, such as becoming overly reliant on digital assistants, which could lead to a loss of personal autonomy. The advice given to governments, users, and companies includes the need for a nonproliferation agreement to prevent the uncontrollable development of super intelligence. The speaker also addresses the challenges of regulating AI, comparing it to the regulation of nuclear weapons, and the importance of establishing rules to prevent existential risks associated with AI.

10:03

🌐 The Ethical and Regulatory Challenges of AI Development

The speaker presents a campaign advocating for the regulation and licensing of AGI development, likening it to the control of nuclear weapons due to its potential for catastrophic consequences. They argue that the pursuit of profit in AI development without considering its broader impact is irresponsible and could lead to societal collapse. The speaker calls for a shift in focus from profit to collaboration and alignment in AI development to ensure a positive outcome. They express a cautious optimism about the potential of AI to solve major problems but are pessimistic about the voluntary collaboration needed to achieve this without negative consequences.

Keywords

💡Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Artificial General Intelligence refers to a theoretical form of artificial intelligence that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at a level equal to or beyond that of a human being. In the video, AGI is discussed as a potentially dangerous development due to its uncontrollable and self-replicating nature, which could lead to existential risks for humanity. The speaker suggests that AGI could be developed within five years, emphasizing the urgency of establishing regulations and nonproliferation agreements to manage its development.

💡Intelligent Assistance (IA)

Intelligent Assistance, as mentioned in the script, is a form of AI that performs practical tasks such as controlling emissions, protein folding, scheduling appointments, and translating languages. It is distinguished from AGI in that it is designed for specific, routine tasks rather than general intelligence. The speaker uses the example of a translation app called Ras to illustrate how IA can improve efficiency and ease of life, without posing the same existential risks as AGI.

💡Economic Impact

The economic impact of AI, particularly in the context of the video, refers to the influence of AI on the economy, including job displacement, increased productivity, and the potential for wealth generation. The speaker discusses the positive economic impact of IA, such as expanding business opportunities by enabling communication in multiple languages, and the potential for AI to increase GDP unevenly, which could exacerbate existing inequalities.

💡Regulation

Regulation in the context of the video pertains to the establishment of rules and oversight to govern the development and use of AI technologies. The speaker advocates for a nonproliferation agreement for AGI, similar to those for nuclear weapons, to prevent its uncontrolled proliferation and potential misuse. The concept of regulation is central to the speaker's argument for a cautious and controlled approach to AI development.

💡Existential Risk

Existential risk is a term used to describe threats that could lead to the extinction or near-extinction of humanity. In the video, the speaker identifies AGI as an existential risk due to its potential to become uncontrollable and self-replicating, leading to unforeseen and potentially catastrophic consequences. The speaker emphasizes the need for preemptive measures to mitigate these risks.

💡Dependence

Dependence, as discussed in the video, refers to the reliance on AI systems to the extent that individuals or societies could become unable to function without them. The speaker warns of the dangers of becoming overly dependent on AI, such as digital assistants, which could lead to a loss of autonomy and an increased vulnerability to AI failures or manipulation.

💡Unemployment

Unemployment in the context of the video is the potential job displacement that could result from the widespread adoption of AGI. The speaker suggests that AGI could render many jobs obsolete, as machines would be able to perform tasks more efficiently and at no cost, leading to widespread unemployment and social upheaval.

💡National Security

National security, as mentioned in the script, is the concept of safeguarding a nation against threats to its sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity. The speaker expresses concern that companies like Microsoft and OpenAI are developing AI technologies that could have significant implications for national security, as they could be used for military purposes or to control information dissemination.

💡Polarization

Polarization refers to the division of opinions into opposing groups with little common ground. In the video, the speaker discusses the potential for AI to exacerbate existing social and economic polarization, as the benefits of AI development are unevenly distributed, leading to increased inequality and social unrest.

💡Collaboration

Collaboration is the act of working together, particularly in the context of the video, it refers to the need for global cooperation in the development and regulation of AI technologies. The speaker argues that voluntary collaboration is essential to ensure that AI development aligns with the interests of humanity as a whole, rather than being driven solely by profit motives.

💡Side Effects

Side effects in the context of the video refer to the unintended consequences of AI development, such as disinformation, bias, and societal shifts. The speaker warns that the focus on short-term gains and immediate benefits of AI could lead to neglecting these side effects, which could have serious implications for society.

Highlights

The advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) could be as close as five years away, with a conservative estimate of 2030.

The concept of Intelligent Assistance (IA) is introduced, which involves AI in practical applications like controlling emissions and protein folding.

AI's role in enhancing efficiency in everyday tasks such as Google Maps, scheduling, and translation is highlighted, with personal anecdotes about using a translation app.

The economic impact of AI is discussed, with personal examples of how translation apps have increased opportunities for communication and work.

AI's potential to increase GDP unevenly and exacerbate existing inequalities is a concern raised, emphasizing the need for policy to address these issues.

The dangers of AI development, such as societal shifts, disinformation, and bias, are compared to the historical neglect of side effects in the industrial revolution.

Concerns about companies like OpenAI and Microsoft being in charge of public policy and national security issues due to their AI developments.

The comparison of building AGI to the Manhattan Project, warning of the uncontrollable nature of such an intelligence.

The argument that AGI could lead to most people becoming unemployed, as machines would outperform humans in all general tasks.

The need for a nonproliferation agreement for AGI development, similar to those for nuclear weapons, to prevent uncontrollable outcomes.

The potential for an arms race in AGI development that could have catastrophic consequences for humanity.

The importance of regulation and supervision in AGI development to prevent misuse and ensure safety.

AI's potential to solve practical problems is contrasted with the risks of creating an uncontrollable superintelligence.

The paradox of companies investing in AGI despite acknowledging its potential for harm, and the lack of framework for responsible development.

The call for collaboration and alignment in AI development to prevent negative side effects and ensure beneficial outcomes.

A cautious optimism about the potential of AI to solve major problems, coupled with pessimism about the likelihood of voluntary collaboration.

The impact of political changes, particularly in the United States, on the future of AI regulation and development.

The campaign against the development of AGI without proper oversight, emphasizing the need for licensing and permission.

Transcripts

the Adent of artificial general

intelligence is potentially five years

away I always say 2030 to be safe but

what I called IIA intelligent assistance

that goes from controlling emissions uh

protein folding all the Practical things

that we think that machines should be

doing because they're they're better and

faster so Google Maps scheduling

appointments translating I use a

translation app called Ras to translate

most of my keynote videos at Spanish and

Portuguese and that's made a huge

difference for me it's not perfect but

it works and my learning has been that

basically the Practical stuff that kind

of not and bols routine AI will do a

great job making life more efficient and

easier and that's not really dangerous

by itself that's basically just

dangerous as a consequence of our

routines changing but it has great

economic impact so that's good and I

have lots of great examples for that and

this is what I keep telling people

rather than thinking about ex machina

and domination and Consciousness and

human agency we should think about how

we can use better software which is

intelligent assistance and you mentioned

a great economic impact is it possible

to quantify this economic impact yeah I

just taking my own example the fact that

I can now speak Portuguese and and

Spanish and Finnish and even Hindi

increases my chance of speaking to

people in those places and they know

that I don't speak Spanish but it gets

them to understand what I'm saying and

then when there's a gig they have a

translator right so it increases my

economic possibility and then there's

other things like you know I work with

lawyers the lawyers are saying okay

we've got a 550 page PDF about the

lawsuit about some real estate Affairs

in Miami and now they upload this to

Google learning Google notebook and it

will summarize the deal points for you

in in 14 seconds and you may not be

aware that they're not the right deal

points but it it's a head start has

great economic impact because it's like

a super tool 10 years ago if you weren't

on the cloud and now you're on the cloud

because the cloud is faster and you can

use a mobile phone to access everything

so it's like that basically and I think

the forecast shows that in some jobs it

it could be 3 four 5x efficiency which

is not always good but basically what

happens is that uh you can get very good

at something very quickly if you want to

be very good like a writer or creative

person it's still the same job but you

have better tools and the learning has

been for me a person with the better

tools usually gets a better

job GP there's the prediction that the

AI can can really increase the world's

GDP right you think that is correct that

is that is correct the problem is that

it increases GDP unevenly so it

increases our GDP because we we are

already in the PO position of increase

we already increasing I mean if you're

the top 10% which we belong to no doubt

you then then you're going to increase

because this is just the way that the

polarization of capital works and

technology is capital ultimately right

the hard part will be to figure out how

to make it even enough for everybody

else so that they are doing the sort of

moreal jobs or commodity jobs they have

to be uplifted and that's a policy issue

and the problem that we're seeing right

now primarily with intelligence systems

is that we are not looking at this far

enough we're looking at the short-term

things and the immediate boosts and then

you know side effects are not

interesting it's like oil and gas and

coal you know we had the industrial

society and side effects were somebody

else's

problem but now the side effects will be

you of societal shifts of disinformation

of bias and all of these things and this

is what worries me about companies like

open Ai and Microsoft is that they are

kind of in charge of this now I mean

they are in charge of public policy the

military Now by by extension because

basically this is now a national

security issue not how we going to use

Simple software to make appointments or

so but how you inform people and how you

run

databases and how you of course run

drones and things like that I mean these

are issues that are not issues of

private companies it's not like sap

would be responsible for the future of

humanity and this is kind of what's

happening is that Microsoft and open air

are out there saying we're building an

artificial

superintelligence the AGI yeah and and

that that that's just not a good idea

because the extreme version of that is a

machine that is impossible to control

it's like say okay we're going to invent

a nuclear bomb the Manhattan Project

we're going to have a Manhattan project

for AI and then we're hoping that nobody

will use it and no that's not what's

going to happen right just like the manh

project it will get used and it won't be

good there are other analysts that think

it's fear mongering and they think that

human intelligence is more than this

zeros and ones of artificial in I agree

I agree with all of that but the problem

is that this intelligence that we're

building is not like a human it's

Superior because it is a machine right

so there's a limit to how much Computing

you can do in your brain you can't

expand your brain by 5x there's no room

for that you can have faster connections

between the neurons those are all things

that are physical limitations computers

have none of that as systems are are

growing they are going to become

infinitely more powerful at the most

basic computational jobs than us that's

just the nature of Technology there's no

limit to that right with us there are

limits so right now we're still kind of

even some people will say not quite even

yet but soon okay but but the potential

of AI to be Computing faster is clearly

there and and we can see that in front

of us it's not that the AI has to be

evil to cause the damage it can be done

by for example complete dependency if I

have as people are propagating like

Microsoft and others if I have an AI

digital assistant like Siri and this

assistant is super intelligent and

becomes like a person to me which is the

goal of course then I become utterly

dependent on that and like I'm dependent

on the iPhone but but times 1,000 and so

I could not really do things anymore and

I wouldn't want to unplug it because

it's doing all these things for

me and so that is a much higher level of

dependency than a computer or an iPhone

or an iPad so what do we do what what is

your advice I guess for governments and

for for users and companies first I

think on the top level of the

existential question we need a

nonproliferation agreement we need an

agreement that says we're going to build

super intelligence with the IQ of a

billion there's almost 99.9

99% certainty of that going bad because

it's uncontrollable and

self-replicating do you feel like the

blocks are are close to that because it

doesn't seem like the United States

Europe and you know China and other

asia-pacific countries will meet and

confer about this it's like nuclear

weapons what is the alternative an arms

race of AGI would kill us all instantly

basically you can think of in different

ways but the reason that something comes

to pass like this because something

happens usually like way if a stock

market crash because of AI very likely

to happen or we could have a air traffic

control crash based on some problem with

AI do you see there Union interested in

in doing something proactively before

something like that Happ yes this is the

whole purpose behind the AI Act is to

establish those rules and say okay

here's four categories one total noo one

go only if and the other one go if you

share and the other one is free for all

and 95% of things are free to go because

they're business applications right so I

mean I we care about those things but

they're not

existential so if my job is 40% eroded

because there's

automation we'll figure something out

but it's not existential to the world

somebody once said we don't regulate a

hammer because I can kill somebody with

a hammer so we don't have regulation on

hammers but hammers can be used to

kill the magnitude of a hammer is

nothing compared to the magnitude of AI

these are tools that can kill or they

can build but we need to figure out a

way that the killing POS potential is

greatly reduced and this is definitely a

big issue and now what we're doing now

is we're saying okay in the name of

business progress techno optimism we're

going to let these companies build

whatever they can build yeah so you

would say that this information deep

fakes and this more existential threat

are the biggest negatives of the current

development of AI let's put it this way

if you're going to shoot to build an

artificial general intelligence you're

essentially shooting to make most people

unemployed you know that's what it means

it's a machine for unemployment if a

machine gets generally intelligent means

it understands everything in real time

the entire internet every communication

every person everything that has ever

happened the machine understands this

sense of every language and every

possible meaning and so that means that

that a lot of work that we think of as

human work would cease to be we can't

compete because they be essentially free

the adment of artificial general

intelligence is potentially five years

away I always say 2030 to be safe but

that's basically what it is and and you

know there's trillions of dollars I mean

this is the biggest raise of money that

you've ever seen in technology it's

bigger than anything we have ever

invested in climate change it's so now

we have two big Pinnacles one is green

everything that's all the money goes

there climate technology and AI The

Challenge on both of those things is

that we're are doing this not to

necessarily increase flourishing but to

increase profit and so talk to me about

what is this project that you have yeah

it's a campaign that I'm working on you

need to be commissioned licensed

supervised to build something that is

equal of the nuclear bomb because it's

pretty hard to build a nuclear bomb but

not an AI especially when it's open

source so you're building something like

this you're running something like this

for a profit company you need to be

subject to regulation and supervision

and there needs to be a nonproliferation

agreement not every country can have

their own AGI it's not that this is

possible next month but in scientific

terms it's definitely possible because

we're on this exponential chart of more

data more computing power more G PPU and

the Paradox is many of those companies

have openly said for for years now that

this could be happen or hell and it's

just kind of accepted that they can

dabble with this right so I think we

need to have a framework that says you

have to be licensed to do that you have

to have permission you have to

collaborate and it's not just about

selling more products sometimes it's

good to forego options like to say we're

going to build IIA we're going to use

artificial elligence we're going to use

it for business we're going to use it to

solve problems but we're not going to

build an OM poent digital Network so

that we can become the second tier

intelligence in your conversations with

other futurists what is the common sense

are people on board with your vision do

they have other ideas that they're

sharing with you I think people are

buying larger board with this concept to

make that happen we have to think wider

and there are quite a few people

thinking wider but if they prove to

think why do they get punished by the

stock market as a result the two biggest

companies in the world Nvidia making the

juice for the AI and the second one

Saudi Arabian oil company and this kind

of logic of profit above everything

that's the end period of humanity

because basically what it does it it

brings it to the top and then there's

too many problems and it all collapses

together because we've never fixed any

of the problems in like climate change

because we have this one of object

different so a lot of people are saying

we would if we could go down this

direction and then we have the alimer

effect among the scientist friends and

researcher friends and AI friends that I

have of saying you know I'm just doing

what is scientifically possible because

it needs to be done you know it's

progress I'm saying no that's not how it

works because you're going to make

something that somebody else will decide

how to use and you have nothing to say

about it so to finish let's just

establish if you are still an optimist a

cautious Optimist or are you very

pessimistic for instance this is a very

big election year things can go in very

different ways here in the United States

and the future of AI will depend on that

because whoever's in the white house

will have a different approach to

regulation and everything else how do

you characterize yourself right now

cautious Optimist or completely

pessimistic right now I would say it

will get worse before it gets better

that is because people Fear the Future

because they don't feel a lot of Hope

and they and they rack up all the

negative stories I think when're we're

entering a period of this year where

there will be some loss and some wind

there will be more polarization but I'm

hopeful exactly because we are at the

Pinnacle of new Solutions coming in with

science and technology that we could use

to solve pretty much every practical

problem but we're not spending nearly

enough time on alignment and on

collaboration we're spending trillions

of dollars on progress and inventing

things we don't look at everything else

we just go ahead and everybody does

their own think and that won't work

because there are too many side effects

so that's my biggest worry so I'm

extremely optimistic there that we can

solve things like cancer or water or or

or power energy but I'm pessimistic on

us voluntarily coming together and

collaborate so this can end well that's

why I this the campaign of denying AGI

is to say that if you're pursuing this

if you're creating a digital

entity that looks to supered us this is

not something that this private company

business that's like messing with

Humanity